Verile

I did some more trials to see what would turn up. Display, Outcome H/M, Actual 01, 5/495, 1% 02, 10/490, 2% Surprisingly, the results perfectly matched the expected outcome of 1RN. Probably rules out a polynomial like you said, unless the added value were quadratic but that seems unnecessarily complicated. I'll continue brute forcing in intervals of 1 Hit over the week and see if I can smoke out a pattern. As an aside, I'm surprised the Japanese haven't already figured this out, and if they have, that none of the Japanese fluent here have turned it up.

I'm not much of a mathematician and most of the statistics talk is over my head, so take this for what it's worth. I'm just throwing a layman's idea out there to hopefully spark the real genius of others since the project has slowed down. I've been looking at it like this: Display, Actual, Disparity 9, 7.84% -1.16 23, 21.86% -1.14 27, 29.63% 2.63 36, 34.16% -1.84 41, 43.66% 2.66 49, 51.7% 2.7 56, 58.17% 2.17 63, 70.27% 7.27 66, 72.22% 6.22 75, 82.55% 7.55 82, 90.77% 8.77 94, 99.15% 5.15 In a 2RN system, what I'm calling the disparity should have roughly as many negatives as positive values below and above ~50 Hit. But with a few exceptions, for the high confidence values they're mostly positive and the disparity increases with HIT. This makes me wonder if a 3rd value is being added. Of course, because 2RN diverges from 1RN more at the extremes, it couldn't be a static value. Maybe something like: ((3A+B)/4) + 200/(HIT+50) In a 2RN system, +200/HIT+50 would bolster the lower values and become more negligible as HIT increases. The +50 to HIT would prevent absurd values from occuring at HIT<10. I don't know how to model this so it's just something I think might represent the data. I'll try gathering outcomes at 1 HIT and see if that reveals anything; in a pure 2RN system it should be close to 0% whereas with a +modifier it should return the value of the modifier.

500 trials at a single value. [Hit Rate], [Outcome H/M], [Actual] 66%, 358/142, 71.6% About 5.6% lower than what raw 2RN anticipates (77.22%), so may help rule out that system in favor of weighted (for >50 hit, at least)

500 trials at a single value. [Hit Rate], [Outcome H/M], [Actual] 27, 149/351, 29.8%

I find it's easier just to modify my own defenders and then "Check Defenses" under the Streetpass settings.

Followed my own advice and took 400 samples from the lower ranges. Goes pretty quick if you only have 1 unit (auto end) and nobody's moving. [Hit Rate], [Outcome H/M] 36, 34/66 31, 23/77 22, 24/76 17, 17/83

Some people have set up their castles so they're Multiplayer friendly e.g., all units on hold, easy to seize. Should be easy to farm lower hit rates from there. I set my Corrinne to 80 Avoid and Hana to 92 Avoid with 1 range weapons within Lilith (64 avoid) heal range, all units set to hold. Einherjar Shop +20 Avoid. If you think that might be useful or want anything more specific, let me know. Castle Address: 09413-68970-35568-96895 Though, in retrospect, you don't even need other people's castles to do this. Just setup your defenders however you want and then "Check Defenses" under Streetpass settings.

Thank you for doing kamui's work for us less capable.