Lushen

I believe the free CYL hero we got last time will expire if you haven't picked it up already (the notification said it could expire at any time) and we will get to pick a free 5* from the new CYL pool.

Why Ike is a better choice than Hector: 1. Warding Breath and LIke are both rarer than Hector is at this point. A poll on reddit showed that nearly 70% of the playerbase there had summoned at least one Hector. I'd wager the true percentage is around 50% if you go outside of reddit. 2. LIke is a legendary unit which means two things. First off, you can build an earth team around him. Second, you get a blessing when you summon him which you will not get with Hector. 3. Hector is just food at this point. If you have another green armored unit, chances are (s)he is going to be better off with DC than Hector (WChrom for example). LIke doesn't look amazing but with a unique special skill, built in DC, blessing advantage, and warding breath he looks to be quite useful as both food and as a unit. 4. Lots of heroes have built in DC, none have build in warding breath. So even if you don't have DC fodder, you can still build plenty of DC units and plenty more will come. 5. Most importantly, Ike is much rarer than Hector. You might say "well he will come back every month". First off, that's not entirely true. Fjorm will not appear in the next legendary banner so you can assume that the more legendaries we get, the rarer he will end up. Secondly, the odds of summoning him are <3% because you have an 8% chance to summon one of three units. On Hector banners, you have over a 3% chance to summon him. Hector can also be summoned accidentally in other banners. Finally, Hector is eligible for Hero Feasts and other increased rate banners whereas LIke is not. To me, the choice is clear. I would also argue that WTharja is a better choice than Hector but LIke is better than both.

How to explain.... There are two different circles of data. There is the reddit circle and the outside community circle. We can create a third circle by speculating roughly what the outside community circle is like, although we can't know how large that circle is compared to reddit and it won't be 100% accurate. So we can very easily assume that they will vote mostly female. We can assume that Fates/Awakening units will have high representation outside of reddit. We can assume that Hector will do better than Ephraim outside of Reddit. We can assume Chrom would go up. We can assume Celica and Alm will both do quite well. Technically you can create other circles if you're familiar with how the JP rank heroes compared to how the ENG communities do. If you take the Speculation circle and combine it with the Reddit circle you get something very close to the results we saw in the interim which we could not have possibly known. For example we expected Alm and Celica to do well outside of reddit. We also could see from the reddit poll that Celica was placed first. This meant it was fairly predictable that Celica was going to end up in first. Likewise, we could see from Reddit that Tharja was doing horribly while Camilla was doing just fine which made it quite easy to predict that Camilla was going to be much more popular than Tharja this time around (in contrast to CYL 1) which is exactly what happened. We could see that Hector was probably going to overtake Ephraim because the reddit poll only had him at a slight advantage and it would be pretty easy to speculate that outside of Reddit Hector will have more of an advantage than Ephraim did within Reddit. Once we see the numbers from CYL 2 we can figure out exactly how big the two circles were relative to one another. The data is completely worthless if you don't apply any sort of logic. Not everything can be put into some magical formula and logical fallacies are perfectly acceptable in this kind of environment. Kind of like the stock market.

Not at all.

50K Members. Multiply that by the percent that voted for Ephraim on the Reddit poll and you get more votes for Ephraim than he got total last time.

Well just remember every FEH Channel event had a suprise attached to it. I don't think there was a single one where we were not completely thrown off guard by something.

Anywho for those saying that the reddit poll doesn't matter, I beg to differ. Is it exact? No, but it wasn't expected to be either. If you take the reddit poll and amplify it by why we can expect from outside of reddit (camilla boost, hector performing slightly better than ephraim, marth boost, chrom boost, fates royals boost), you pretty much get the interim results exactly.

This is the first time I don't want there to be any news about Laguz. I don't have any orbs! TBH I'm hoping they tease the town building mode even if it isnt ready this coming update. I'm optimistic that they use it as an excuse to get rid of the home and battle screen UIs because I think they're incredibly poorly designed.

Or just give her Dire Thunder...

Ursula could get Excalibur if they don't mind giving older units weapons that are already in the game. Although, I don't know that I'd pick Excalibur or Dark Excalibur over Keen Blarwolf+...

My guess now would be that IS is going to announce CYL 2 winners this coming Friday or Thursday night for the anniversary.

Still WIP . . . https://imgur.com/a/8MRN0 Plan to give Jaffar CC, Ursula SS2, and upgrade Lloyd's seal one more time. Did you guys lower the maximum attachment file size? I seem to remember not having issues with it before but now I can't upload anything that's not incredibly pixelated, even as a JPEG.

Just FYI, Tweet will come out on a clean hour. All the other tweets they've released come out at exactly xx:00.

There are plenty of ways to sexualize male characters with armor/clothing. There are a ton of Skyrim mods that do so. It really has nothing to do with having revealing clothing but rather how it reveals the skin. For example if Camilla was in a swimsuit it would not be half as sexualized as she is in her succubus armor. Males can wear succubus armor as well and it has the same effect. I don't think that's weird I think that's normal. And the same goes for me with females. I don't find females in succubus armor sexy, I find it creepy. Or at least, it should be normal :)

Ah interesting. Yea I toyed around with the idea of making something that accounted for pity rate resets but decided against it. Nevertheless this is the most accurate calculator I've seen so far. I'm really big on calculating my odds before deciding to summon. Thanks!

To be fair I think there's a difference between having a "cute" unit and having a unit that looks like a prostitute. I don't think there's a male equivalent of units like Camilla and Loki, but I could be wrong as I haven't really played the newer ones.

I'll also mention some very simple probability formulas that could be useful in conjunction with this chart. If you want to know what your odds (%) of getting a unit in a particular amount of pulls (N), you can use this formula. Odds of pulling at least one : (1 - (1 - %/100 ))^(N) Keep in mind that your odds change every 5 pulls. So to 'combine' the odds (in an OR fashion) you can simply add them. So, Odds of pulling in first 5 orbs + Odds of pulling in next 5 orbs + etc. etc. By combining these two and the chart you can find out exactly what your chances are of getting a unit if you decide to spend all your orbs. Thanks for the chart, I was just assuming it was 3% for simplicity before but this is better. It's still not perfect b/c if you pull a different 5* your rates will reset which this wouldn't account for. EDIT: I just noticed the right side of the graphs do something very similar. Out of curiosity do they account for resetting odds if you pull a different unit by mistake or not?

Agreed, a magic user Ephraim would feel wrong. I'd like to see an axe wielding Ephraim as a nod to Dussel training him. Others have pointed out he could very well wield Garm.

Yep. It's all marketing towards the biggest demographic. If you really think about it, there would be more male characters b/c FE is based off Western Europe (for the most part) so fighting woman should be rare. It doesn't bother me as much as the sexualization of the female characters that have been going on for the last few years. I'm not sure sexualizing female anime characters is good for society. I don't mind the whole "waifu" thing because you're idolizing their personalities which are a lot more real than their looks, but I have personal issues when IS throws big boob provocative woman in the forefront of the game, especially when this game is played by a lot of children. And don't get me started on units like Nowi. This is why I tend to prefer male characters over female in FEH, especially the newer female characters. Why can't we just have females that act and look like...actual woman? edit: To clarify, I'm not saying all the female characters are bad. I don't mind units like Lucina for instance.

Yea. He could have been Fjorm.

He went off to find a way to resolve his bloodlust for the Askr kingdom so he can return an ally. Or something like that.

This is going to be bad....

Yea the problem with late game in FEH is the lack or RPG style random rewards. The only thing I could see is if they made a raid style mode where you can get random skills in the form of an item. Then you could inherit it onto other units by using up the item. Skills like Attack+3, Repos, Heals, etc. would be extremely common whereas skills like Life and Death, Swift Sparrow, Heavy Blade would be insanely rare. This would add a constant grind mechanic to the game and it would be limited by your available stamina. And maybe unwanted skills could be sold for a small amount of feathers since most people seem to think we don't get feathers quick enough unless you whale. It could also have some items like the ones Ice Dragon mentioned although I think they can either do a merging item or do an IV reroll item. I don't think they could do both or it would hurt the incentive to pull more than one of a character which would cut into profits.

Why did Loki and Veronica score so highly but Zacharias/Bruno didn't even get in the top 20? Loki I understand why although I'm not impressed. But I would have thought Veronica and Zacharias would have done similarly consiering how many people have been wanting Zacharias.

Last chance to join the Ephraim train