Beddlam

My problems with the current gauntlet are as follows: - It is usually clear within the first few hours (if not before the match-up begins) who will win, and there is basically nothing the loser can do about it. - Punishes players for having a life: The fact that this event encourages players not to sleep or take prolonged breaks from the game is a real problem in my eyes. - Cumulative score is heavily influenced by who you support, punishing those that support popular heroes (and again punishing those who sleep through multipliers) I've been thinking about a solution that gets at the same basic principal as the current gauntlet, but solves what I consider to be its most pressing problems, and here is what I came up with: -Battles and their scoring remains the same. -Battles get their own energy system: you can fight 10 times a day, retain the 30 minute cooldown between battles. -At the end of each hour, teams get points equal to the average points scored by team-members in battle that hour (Total score / # of players on the team). Battles count from their end time rather than their beginning time. -The team that scores the most raw points in each hour gets a 10% bonus to their points for that hour. This bonus is for team score only, not individual score. -Individual score reward tiers change from ranking to score benchmarks, as there would likely be a very large number of players scoring the maximum possible points. The idea is that, while there are still advantages for the larger team, a smaller team could win with better participation and performance in their battles. The raw score bonus calculated hourly also means that a smaller team would have a chance to grab a multiplier with coordinated use of battles/flags. The hourly bonus is also a much more easily manipulated lever than the bonus multipliers to adjust how much of an advantage they want to give the bigger team. 10% is my guess as to what might feel fair, but it would be easy enough to adjust once SI had some data on this format.

While Cordelia is plenty strong enough to run without other fliers, The reason DB3 Cordelia is favored is because she performs better with pretty much any offensive buffs. So if you are running any other fliers with her, or even a standard buffing unit, DB3 is better.

Many of us find them useful, and no one has claimed they are perfectly accurate. This is a forum, you don't get to dictate what others post. If you don't find the forcast sheets useful, just ignore posts concerning them.

The danger for team Corrin here is if after Robin's next multiplier she ends up down like 7%, meaning Corrin will trigger anther Robin multiplier a few hours later. EDIT: Just checked, and that is the current projected scenario.

Enjoy the multiplier Corrin!

Wow, just looked at the chart for the men's side for the first time, looks likely that Gaius will win two in a row while being the least popular hero in the whole gauntlet. If that happens, then he goes on to do the same to Corrin, it would be kind of amazing.

Yeah. What I'd really like to see is Robin just barely get into bonus range, Then team Corrin totally smashes, allowing Robin to get two more bonuses in a row. I think Corrin would still have enough time to win in that scenario, but I'm okay with that, since Corrin has received such outstanding support in this gauntlet.

Careful what you wish for, multiplier ping-pong at this late stage might spell a Corrin loss.

I think you misunderstand what forecasts are. They aren't telling the future, they are telling trajectory according to current evidence. They aren't set in stone, and just because they don't prove to be 100% accurate doesn't make them a bad forecast. As Ice Dragon has done, any good forecaster knows that they aren't showing you how it will be, but a range of possible outcomes with relative likely-hood. The chart shows you the results if current trends continue, but as Ice Dragon has clearly indicated in his posts, this actually points to a range of possible outcomes that, in this case, can be effected by the actions of the players.

But he said there was a 60% chance of rain and it didn't rain!! He knows nothing!

Thanks for the link! Man, if felt like we were losing much more badly than that. I thought we'd have a 3 or 4 more multipliers by the end.

Man, whoever wins from the men's side is going to get like 30 hrs of bonuses in the final match-up. I was a fool and woke up in the middle of the night to catch Robin's first 2 bonuses before I realized I'm much better off waiting and trying to catch the last few. Do the people keeping track of the math have an estimate of how many more bonuses Robin will get?

My condolences to team Corrin if you lose. The multiplier is so dumb.

Yeah Robin's win has been certain since it became clear this morning that there would be not more bonuses in the match-up.

I think you are misunderstanding a couple of things about that weapon. The stat buff would be already incorporated into the stats shown for him, so the base speed of the unit in the pic is 31, meaning he will probably have a speed between 29-31, so best-case his speed is 35 with fury, which is still pretty good. Also the -1 special counter is a -1 to the base, not -1 every time he attacks, so he has the same special usage as a killer user not a brave user. He can still proc a 4-count special on his vantage attack if he doubles a unit that can counter him, but it's not quite as powerful as you were thinking.

I would recommend promoting Eirika if you run infantry -blade tome users. She can give them +16/4/4/2 herself. If not, Xander is probably more generally useful, doubly so if you are running horse emblem, as he is probably the best red horse in the game.

Robin and Tiki are holding very steady, with Robin currently down ~117,000,000 but slowly closing the gap. I think maybe there'll be one more disadvantage bonus this match, though it's hard to say. If there is, Team Robin needs to hope that Team Tiki scores enough to give the bonus back, otherwise we probably won't have time to over take them again. Oddly, this would seem exciting before the bonuses as the tension of the close match would make it more interesting; but because the bonuses have been introduced, now the close match seems kind of boring since we might not see any more swings, just a slow march to an inevitable conclusion.

Eirika is a bit lackluster until 5* because she really shines as a support unit, able to buff all 4 stats with the fortify res seal. That said, you probably wand Life and Death or Fury in her A-slot; and that combined with her naturally high speed and low attack makes +Atk/-Spd one of her better natures. Avoiding getting doubled is much more important to her than doubling, so she should have plenty of speed even with speed bane.

Best Nature (+spd) for brave bow LnD Takumi is 44 attack, 36 speed. Best Nature (+atk) for brave bow LnD Setsuna is 43 attack, 37 speed. They are functionally identical, but Setsuna is available at 3 stars so you are much more likely to get her with a good nature, and she doesn't have to give up a legendary bow and one of the most valuable A-skills in the game to run this build.

Team Robin then Corrin. I'm got my fury desperation Nino in the lead now, and will probably switch to brave axe goad fliers Cherche when/if I switch to Corrin, Add me: 5215626181

My primary arena team is based around NIno and I really like fury on her, especially if you are going to be using her for TT. The 8 point swing in defensive stats between L&D and Fury is a pretty big deal. Fury Nino can usually bait a ranged unit as long as it isn't a triangle red, brave bow, or Kagero. Also, fury puts her safely into desperation range which is really important for TT because it allows her to function through consecutive maps without healing. L&D Nino needs to either take a non-lethal counter attack or take ardent sacrifice instead of draw back. The only caveat is that my NIno is +spd, and the 2 extra spd from L&D might be helpful if yours isn't. I haven't payed attention to how often I see spd 39-40 units (which you can double with speed buffed L&D Nino but not fury) that you can't one-shot, but I would guess it would not be that often.

I went to do the Lloyd quest on Lunatic and accidentally clicked on Infernal, I ended up pulling it off with: Nino 5* (+Spd/-Atk, Fury 3, Desperation, Draconic Aura, +HP seal) Azura 5* (+HP/-Res, Swordbreaker 3, Luna, +Spd seal) Eirkia 5* (+Res/-Atk, L&D 2, WoM 3, Hone Speed 3, Rally Defense, Hone Res seal) Lloyd 4* Eirika Buffs Ninio who kills the axe infantry, Azura Dances Nino who uses Draw Back to get Azura out of range. Kite back: Lloyd ends up on the bottom left corner, Azura to his right and Nino to her right. Eirika sits above Nino behind the mountain. Azura tanks one hit from the mounted archer. From that point on people are pretty much just hitting what they can reach. Eirika and Nino chip down Lloyd into range for my Lloyd to one-shot. Hope this is helpful as I know my Nino set-up is similar to a lot of people's.

I like Fury for her A slot: it helps her get into Sol Katti Range by applying non-lethal damage while also increasing her bulk so she is less likely to get one-shot. Brash Assault combines well with Sol Katti but with her superior speed is usually redundant. I think Escape Route can be especially effective on her, allowing her get in or out of combat once she is in Sol Katti range.

As a long term project, I was thinking about giving my +res Felicia smoke dagger+, poison strike, and savage blow. I figure the chip damage and debuffs would make for easy ORKOs for the rest of the team and would help empower units that won't double. Brave/Dire users and vantage units seem like they would work especially well with this support. I chose Felicia because she can tank the counter-attacks from mages and should be able to score a KO of her own once Glacies is up. If anyone has built this or something similar, did you find it worth-while? I have not used many AoE skills outside of specials, do people find them useful, or are they too much trouble to set up?

So if the numbers shake out that Lachesis gets a multiplier in the last hour that makes her fans "better?" While if Elise holds on (by not getting too many points) her fans are "better?" That seems absurd on its face. Maybe if there were a way to coordinate teams that would almost be arguable, but with the number of people participating, the vast majority of whom are never in contact with a larger community, when the bonuses come is just dumb luck. The most active players can observe the patterns and trends, but can't manipulate them.