Mystic Arcanum

Bartozio First off these quote walls jfc 77: Did you not find it interesting that Athena switched from townreading Xnad to sheeping your vote on them? Yes, it's been a pretty prominent topic if discussion now, but your reaction to it is somewhat underwhelming. 195: Does this count as shade-throwing yet? Your responses to Xnad in this and your subsequent posts feel a lot less like you're trying to determine his alignment and more like you're trying to discredit him. There's no entertaining of the possibility that he's town and you dismiss most of what he says with things like "Does this count as shade-throwing?" and trivializing his argument about logic leaps with an over-the-top reaction. 210: More of a general statement than relating this post, but he feels a too lenient towards Athena, even if he thinks Athena's town. It reminds me a lot of my first scumgame (which was also the first game I played on a forum and my partner got lynched Day 1 and it was this whole THING but anyway) where I made the mistake of, to paraphrase the person who caught it, "hardly considering people I'd listed as townreads." There's the thing mentioned in 77, and then here he doesn't take any issue with Athena's misinterpretation of his comment re: Fable. Obviously he doesn't have to flip his opinion 100%, but he kind of just takes it as it is without any questions. The closest he comes to hesitation on Athena is, "And yes, I read his response of "Joking". But... isn't that a pretty easy answer?" But he doesn't have a problem with Athena using this "easy answer" and instead continues going after Xnad for not questioning it. His interactions thus far have also been limited primarily to Xnad, and he doesn't seem concerned with the fact that there's pretty consistent suspicion on Athena. 280: The Fable vote is really bad; earlier you were talking about how "it's fine if Fable doesn't make reads early D1" and here you're like "it feels more like he's stalling." 335: The SoySoy vote is also bad as he calls SoySoy's playstyle similar to the IDNSFMM5 game but moves to SoySoy with barely any casing/pushing on Fable since his last post. His comment on Xnad here feels like backtracking because the push isn't gaining traction. Ultimately have a fairly strong scumlean on Bartozio. I think a flip from him and/or Evan can aid in clearing up the Fable case.

We gon' do everyone tonight friend, fear not. It's below my name: I've been waiting for this moment [not included: and have been kind of lazy with it thus far]. You like tryhard Fenrir, don't you Xnad?

Mackc2 Discovered the existence of post numbers (!) while reading his ISO. 130/135: This is a combination I dislike. Mack's initially like "I don't have anything strong enough to claim anyone as town or scum" but when pressured further by Makaze he moves his vote to me. I could see a world in which town!Mack legitimatately didn't have any strong opinions one way or the other, but he identifies my not referencing Athena's vote as "something [he] would consider scum indicative," a comment that to me feels like he's Rad's case as if he was having the same thought. 251: At the time he mentioned this the only read he'd mentioned in thread was the one on me. I guess in this game it's possible he'd given other thoughts with his mentor, though. 270: There's a flip here from scumreading me and presumably townreading Athena (if he thought I was misrepresenting Athena) to the opposite here. Making a note as I read through the ISO so see how his opinion on Athena develops. @Mackc2 what were some examples of my posts that gave you a townlean? 274: I'm noticing a trend of small things that ping me about Mack. The way he suddenly jumps on this when he'd been beforehand looking at Athena/me feels opportunistic. We didn't get that "gathered evidence" about Athena before EoD1, and by day 2 Athena's Mack's top townlean. Athena being a townlean for Mack is a good look imo b/c I think scum Mack would see Athena as a potential mislynch (the obvious exception being if they're partnered). I wouldn't mind seeing Mack's thought process from gut scumlean to townlean here though. 277: Just something I couldn't let go of; I think the "I talked to my mentor about this and he said this" comment would be difficult to fake were Mack scum. 519: Would appreciate some more opinions from people on this post; I'm wondering why you wouldn't bring these things up in real time. The whole "posting for the sake of posting" thing, for example, was brought up pretty early Day 1. 527: Wouldn't mind your doing this analysis at some point, you had another comment earlier that was a passing "Fenrir's posts seem town" and I want to know how you've developed your own opinion. 534: The analysis of Bart not being scum unless Athena also is is another "I think this would be a difficult process to fake as scum" deal. Final verdict is that I think Mack's town who's discussing things with his mentor and as a result the full thought process isn't here in-thread (as opposed to being scum making leaps to avoid explaining things). I want to see some of his thought processes as mentioned above.

Fable Standing by what I said earlier about his early play being a matter of playstyle. Reading over his earlier interaction with Makaze and weighing the odds of it coming from town vs. scum and still leaning towards the former. Pretty heavily self-focused view of the gamestate, which at the very least lines up with how intent he's been on "YOU MUST INTERACT WITH ME." I'm taking his whole frustration with that to be NAI. I don't see what the scum equity would be for Fable to be so violently opposed to the Satsuma wagon, an opposition which started a while before EoD. Like I guess he'd get some towncred from defending Satsuma, but he's also pretty actively pushing for counterwagons to them right up to EoD and moves to Evan upon concluding a Makaze lynch isn't happening. I feel like as scum he'd be able to get away with just sticking to the Makaze tunnel until EoD and then start pushing Evan D2. Went back to check a recent game of his on MU since I was having trouble making a strong opinion here even after reading the ISO. https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/search.php?searchid=1862240&pp= Came to regret it somewhat because it moved me back towards neutral some. I was moving toward a townlean but his interactions with Superbia here are reminiscent of his interactions with Makaze, but then his tone is also, similar to what I mentioned about Rad earlier, significantly more controlled here. (This being a scumgame of his.) Compared it to his towngame in IDNSFMM5. "Oh I'm super brazen as a wolf but in a aggressively push mislynches for free wins kinda way."-Quote from there which made me think of the aggression here, albeit there's currently no way to know if what he's pushing is a mislynch (I think Makaze is town but Evan has a good chance to flip scum). I feel something like With the final verdict being a townlean™ and wanting dead scum to compare his interactions with.

EvanManManMan First impression from what I can recall is that he's not reading the game in full (i.e. skimming). He talks about Junk scumreading him for not RVS voting even though Junk specified that he thought EMMM was faking confusion. He also has a moment where he accuses Makaze of using a mentality of "guilty until proven innocent" when Makaze scumreads him, which is inaccurate-Makaze didn't start off scumreading the entire game, only you and Fable. These kinds of stances on RVS feel to me like someone who'd want to use RVS as a means of gaining reads, which makes his first post and the corrosponding lack of early analysis/prodding look worse. I dislike the way he defends himself from Fable by calling him scummy over a percieved playstyle difference (Fable "disliking RVS reads" is NAI) and later defends himself from Makaze with the above "guilty until proven innocent" comment and telling Makaze to "get that out of your head if you are town." Votes Rapier because he found Rapier's early game "flat" and wants to see "something contentful" from there-I'd definitely say Rapier'd given content by EoD but in Evan's last post D1 he's apparently unconvinced. None of his other reads have changed from the last time he gave a readlist, which ik isn't explicitly bad but the lack of a comment on Rapier gives credence to the whole "Evan's not reading the game in full" theory. Final impression on him is a scumlean. The main thing that gets me is the Rapier kill, but I can see scum!Evan deciding that a Rapier push is fruitless and acquiescing to the kill.

I'm not used to seeing it in the way you did. like I can get asking questions about things to try and get them involved, but usually the questions I ask for that purpose are related more to playstyle. The main thing with your initial questions was that they were things like "What does it mean that sb's not shitposting yet?" which was something NAI and so I was like "What's the point of asking about this?"

On determining if Athena's first post is more likely to be trying to look proactive or trying to generate responses: they're asking questions pretty consistently throughout their ISO. The main issue I have is with their initial questions, which are barely related to the game and they were very quick to give Xnad a townlean based on his response (and then was also quick to shift to voting Xnad). I still think Athena's initial posts are scummy in a vacuum but the questions at least are in line with what seems to be their general playstyle (based on how in the rest of the ISO they seems to be asking questions about everything they can). I like EvanManManMan's first post less while rereading just since when I think of why he'd comment on having no reads on page 2 but not do anything towards getting them I struggle to think of why he'd do so as town; I'm reading the rest of his iso now though. Also need to reread Mackc2 and Bartozio as I don't have very strong leanings on them either way and can't remember much of what they posted off the top of my head and look at the Rapier nightkill-from what I recall he was pretty widely townread but not to the extent that some others were. One thing I really didn't like from EoD: Rad unvotes SoySoy to "avoid hammer" and doesn't revote when informed there are only three minutes remaining. I can see him doing this as either alignment, but in his final post of the day he's suddenly like "if SoySoy flips town look for scum on that wagon" and it makes it feel a lot like he doesn't want to be caught on it at EoD. Fable has a similar comment on disliking the SoySoy wagon, but Fable was pretty consistent/vocal in his dislike of that wagon beforehand. In Rad's initial vote on SoySoy he asks, "What do you think about things; since your hanging out?" and then he doesn't speak to of reference SoySoy again until those last 3 posts. I think if Rad were town he'd've acknowledged/interacted with SoySoy to some extent after the initial vote. @Makaze, @Fable, and @athena_57, why were you townreading Rad day 1? I'd been assuming Makaze's at least to be a gut/tone read, but upon comparing his tone here to a couple of other games with him I found he's generally more casual/assertive than what I've seen here so far: https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/the-mafia-invitational-redux-game-thread-game-over.3629685/page-90 http://ps-mafia.proboards.com/thread/537/countdown-gg-mafia http://ps-mafia.proboards.com/thread/556/modified-execution-abandoned Whereas in this thread he's been more controlled and reserved. In the Smogon game in particular he's much better with interacting with his scumreads than he was here with SoySoy. I don't have a scumgame of his to compare this to though, so to the three I mentioned above and @RADicate do you think there's another potential explanation for this difference?

I literally just started my reread 10 minutes ago. Anticipate things.

That thing with needing 2/3 of the votes for a lynch I would support a soysoy lynch currently so I will ##Vote: @SatsumaFSoysoy

There's a post where Bartozio votes Fable because "Fables cases feel like stuff he could have made at anytime," which I don't like considering that I can recall Bartozio being one of Fable's defenders with regards to Fable's lack of content earlier Day 1. I also think Makaze's theory that Athena is town trying new things out is possible, particular as an explanation for why town!Athena would suddenly vote Xnad. @athena_57: "You appear to prefer other ways of breaking out of RVS, but do you think reaching in order to generate responses is inherently scummy or just a difference in playstyle?" My inclination is to say that it's scummy, but your bringing this up makes me want to go back and weigh the odds it's playstyle suddenly 15 minutes to dl and im walking to dnd and typing on comp oh boy

See my earlier comment on why Athena may have switched to voting for Xnad as scum (being paranoid about receiving more suspicion than just Bart's). I also think what someone else mentioned about abandoning the pocket attempt because they saw Bartozio's case as having potential is a possibility and that Athena and Satsuma both have decently high chances of flipping scum. Where I'm at now probably looks something like Athena=Satsuma>Evan with Evan being not as strong a lean due to his current lack of content, and Makaze, Junk, and Xnad as town. Does Fable have a reason to be uncooperative as town, though?

@Rapier re: question about AIs, I mistakenly interpreted your earlier comment about Athena/Bartozio as serious, which was why I initially asked where you were heading with it. Is there a reaction you got that stood out to you wrt discerning Athena's alignment though? I've established my having this sentiment already, but I feel like Fable's ignoring a lot of what Makaze says that doesn't relate to him (Fable) specifically. Yes, Makaze hasn't been explaining his reads initially but when prompted to he tends to give further insight, which goes against the idea that he "thinks he's above having to explain his reads." I also don't think Makaze seems concerned with "bulldogging a lynch," something which I referenced earlier (his questions towards Mackc2 seem focused towards determining alignments). I'm not sure what I think of this, as Fable seems primarily concerned with Makaze's attitude towards only Fable himself as opposed to the rest of the thread which is NAGL, but I also think scum!Fable is capable of making a better case if he's pushing for a Makaze lynch. I'm switching trains, should be back on soon.

IDt I'll be able to be here for EoD; going to try to do a full reread of the game overnight. I'm on the Metro now though, so let's see how much I can get through. @XnadrojX and @athena_57, what're your thoughts on each other? For something more specific, Xnad what do you think of Athena's initial townread on you and Athena what do you think of Xnad's response to Bartozio?

What do you y'all think of Xnad's response to Bartozio? It feels weirdly confident in a way I haven't seen from him as either alignment, but his post where he's like "actually I can see why you'd do this as scum" feels aggressive in a town way-I think if he were scum he'd be content to leave it at "I can't see why you'd do this as scum."

Page 8: I'm mindmelding with Junk regarding the thought process here (indicated in my thoughts on page 7) and so a lesser extent his earlier read on Athena which came around the time mine did, so I have Junk as a townlean. Okay, but why not accompany either of these with a vote when you initially brought up the suspicions? Your vote wouldn't have been locked and with Athena in particular isn't that something you'd want to pressure? You did vote Athena shortly after this, but it doesn't seem connected to your initial issue with Athena (as you specifically ask about Makaze). Why bring this up? I'm assuming you think it affects your opinion on Makaze/his read on you, so how does it do so?

Page 7: @RADicate and @Makaze: I still think the townread being a pocket attempt is possible and that Athena voting him was a way of backtracking in response to Bartozio. Re: not initially mentioning the vote myself; I noticed it but was anticipating that Athena was about to further explain it because they were in the middle of a conversation with Rapier about it. What do you think of Makaze's questions earlier towards Mackc2 re: EMMM? Those to me seem like he's trying to discern Mack's alignment. What do you learn about each of us from Xnad flipping town vs. his flipping scum, and which do you think is more likely right now? I dislike this juxtaposed with a later post you made: because both posts feel like you're just passively offering your support for a wagon but not backing it up with any kind of pressure/voting/questioning. The last line of the second post also feels like you're trying to give yourself an out to avoid voting Athena. @athena_57 how am I "ignoring game-relevant stuff you've posted" when I reference your questions towards Mack/Bart in the exact post your quoting? I made it clear when I initially expressed my suspicion on you that the post I was quoting was but one example. Re: Mack people have to leave for various reasons and in some cases may not see anything of meaning in a conversation (if I recall Mack had a comment specifically to something of this effect). Why would he need to post for the sake of making a post when so much of the game was dead? Re: how the game should have started RVS is a clear option but RVS doesn't explicitly involve reaching. Regardless of whether your initial post was a joke or not, what I'm saying is that I think you said it was a joke in order to avoid having to continue the discussion. You're also saying now that your vote on Xnad was for pressure, so what do you think of his reaction to it now that you've unvoted?

:thumbsup: The site's been crashing for me every time I go to try and post, but it should be fixed now. Catch-up time.

##Vote: @athena_57

Shortly put, I don't find Athena's vote on Xnad to be a towntell and as a result I'm confused with how Rad thinks I ignored said vote in order to push Athena.

The issue I had with Junk lay more in his lack of asking Fable about RVS votes which was what I found potentially AI, but the differentiation Junk is making between EMMM and Fable as I understand it is that EMMM specifically mentioned his inability to get early reads but didn't RVS in an attempt to get some. As I explained in my last post, Athena dropping the townread on Xnad doesn't negate the fact that it existed imo and in itself doesn't actually support the theory of town!Athena. Do you think Athena's town for that shift in opinion, and if so what about it reads town to you? Felt like giving my two cents on this, as at the start of the game I found him to be energetic about starting but also not particularly urgent about finding reads, and combined I figured it was mostly a matter of playstyle. So far though, however, his enthusiasm's not been backed up with very much scumhunting-even the most recent post I can see at the time I'm typing this is a comment on something "not being interesting at all." What does qualify as interesting @Fable?

I don't think whether it was RVS or not matters either way, and the questions you asked Mackc/Bartozio aren't much better than the ones I quoted. Asking Bart what he thinks of Mack is a fairly generic question and NAI, and your questioning towards Mack is derived from him dropping in to comment and leaving-another reach in my opinion as you're making the argument that he felt the need to post without indicating what makes that scenario more likely than, for example, being unable to stay online or not finding anything of note. To answer your second question here: Yes. @Rapierany reactions you find to be AI? @Junk I'm not 100% sure I agree on EMMM's first post feeling fake, it's mostly NAI to me. I have some other thoughts on him detailed later in this post, though. Also, what the "interesting point" you think I'm raising about Athena's townread on Xnad? I would consider Xnad's question of "What are you trying to do here?" to be, if he's town, a suspicion. This ties into what Junk was saying about your reply of "It was a joke" feeling dismissive and is why I agree with him that the post in which you do that/townread him feels more like it's you trying to shut down the conversation as opposed to him. Your voting him on the same page without a reply is something I can see coming from scum!Athena if you were looking for a way to revoke the townread after seeing Bartozio mention how said townread felt weird (regardless of whether or not Bartozio himself suspects you for it-what I'm saying is that in the scenario where you're scum the switch to voting Xnad would be out of paranoia that others would find the townread weird but not like the reasoning). Can you walk me through what the motivation/rationale is for town!you to townread and then vote him? @EvanManManMan any other reads currently? What do you think of Junk/Makaze's suspicion towards you? Why do you think Makaze had an FoS on you? I think you're either unintentionally or intentionally misinterpreting Junk's argument against you, as he made it pretty clear that the primary issue wasn't with your lack of an RVS vote but more to do with feeling your first post was a sort of fake confusion. I'm curious as to your Rapier vote as well and the case for town!Athena. I'm going to post this part I have so far before continuing, as my computer's attempted to close me out of SF twice now while I've been typing this post.

Oh wait. Do you mean to say you think Athena's intentionally sheeping it for that purpose? If so, I'm not sure I agree that it would make them partners (nothing makes me think a scum!Athena would be any more likely to do it to town!Bartizio as opposed to scum!Bartozio).

@Rapier what are some examples of Athena trying to set up Bartozio as opposite to his alignment? I'm reading the interactions they have and finding it unlikely that a scum!Athena would so openly sheet their partner's vote.

A few things that stand out to me so far: -Junk asking why there's no RVS vote from EvanManManMan but not asking about Fable's lack of RVS. -Athena and Xnad’s entrances. Xnad's feels off in the sense of his entrance post (at the bottom of page 2) feeling like forced casuality, and his comment to Athena here: "Stating a fact isn't a cop out though. Saying you have a higher than random chance to roll opposing alignments because you were rolling opposing alignments before is a logical fallacy. Saying you have a lower than random chance to roll opposing alignments because you were rolling opposing alignments before is also logical fallacy. The laws of probability says that each individual roll is independent of one another, what are you trying to pull here? Also, you mentioned "a wealth of topics", this is just one topic and is pretty irrelevant to the game state on top of that." feels disingenuous regardless of its accuracy. "What are you trying to pull here?" gives me mild shade-throwing vibes, as does your comment about how "this is just one topic and is pretty irrelevant to the game." I like Athena much less though. I think she's trying way too hard to put forward "useful topics" and ask questions to look like she's scumhunting, but the questions themselves are things like: "Like for example, why hasn't SB posted a shitpost? Is it to shield his mentee Bartozio from an untimely RVS death? Is this alignment indicative?" Which is (1) a serious reach and (2) not alignment indicative even if sb is trying to shield his mentor. I also don't like your putting forth questions like this without offering any potential answers or your own thoughts on them. His townread on Xnad also feels pockety, and I think he intended to use it to shut down the conversation with Xnad and dismiss his suspicions. When asked to elaborate on it by Bartozio he claims that the Xnad townread is because Xnad "wasn't hiding his annoyance" and that a "new scum player would hide their emotions." Neither Xnad nor anyone else in the game is a "newer player", and even if they were whether or not they were hiding their feelings would come down more to the player than their alignment-in fact Xnad doesn't even read to me as particularly annoyed in his response to you.

NoU