Here's a statistical approach at the Men's Side.
The men's side is a 4-way battle according to what I've read here and what I've read on the Megathread at reddit. It all comes down to which players vote what.
Casuals like the 3DS babies will probably choose between these two characters: Chrom and Hector. Chrom's meme status and the fact that he's in Awakening makes the babies want to vote him up. Hector's usefulness in Heroes and his meme status also contribute the the casual war.
Your hardcore fans have got 2 characters that have more talk on them: Marth and Ephraim. Marth is the face of FE, and his Heroes representation is.... well, it's not so great. One chapter is all he got. One banner at the beginning of Heroes is all he got. Ephraim is no different. He may have, what, 4? banners under his belt, but he really got the short end for lancers, besides the weapon refinery boost. Sacred Stones is also garnering much more support over time, and we may have one of the most heated battle for 1st this time around. Marth, Hero-King VS Ephraim, Prince (Probably King by now) of Renais.
But in the end, it all goes down to which side of FE fans have more. The true fans, or the Babies.