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    Fire Emblem, mathematics, spreadsheets
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  • Favorite Fire Emblem Game
    Blazing Sword

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  • I fight for...
    Order of Heroes

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  1. I've updated my orb sheet, and this looks to be a relatively slow month. I've counted 292 orbs (297 depending on how many times one maintains/reaches Tier 21 in arena and reaches 950+ score in Allegiance Battles when orbs are offered) for the month of November, the lowest total since March this year. If you're curious, here is the link to my orb/banner distribution sheet; I've also included December to the best of my ability. Reminder: Add 1 to the dates since the calendar is in Pacific Standard Time, thanks to Daylight Saving Time ending this month in the U.S. So Book IV might start December 6 instead of Dec. 5 for most folks.
  2. Yep - Mia beat Hector. It's Dozla v. Mia and Ilyana v. Jakob for round 2. L'Arachel v. Dozla was basically a repeat of Barst v. Tibarn. Tibarn and L'Arachel each got only 2 multipliers, and then same hell the penultimate hour, leading to 12.0x for the underdogs - and the win. EDIT: Actually, I'm wrong. Tibarn only had one multiplier; Barst was the underdog for 12 hours in a row before winning.
  3. We have some new heroes banners coming, among other goodies. Have at it!
  4. Two new heroes banners; no seasonals. Grand Conquests returns, and we have a new Tap Battle. Discuss away!
  5. A new event calendar is out! Who could be in the next summer heroes banner? The other banners? Discuss away!
  6. @Landmaster Congratulations on your third crown!!! I wonder if you'll start getting addicted to them?! @Diovani Bressan I hope you enjoy using Aversa these next 2 weeks in arena! I haven't done this here in a while: Arena: 3,756 in T20 is about 1,679/3,147/15,736, good for another crown. Originally I had planned to use Alfonse, but with a score range of 728-742, it just wasn't cutting working out. So I used Legendary Hector to improve to 730-744, and after a little more fishing than I planned, I got that score in at about the last minute! AA: I originally had a 5,245, but that was getting mighty close to falling out of top 3K, so I dug down and fished - a lot - until I finally got a 5,262, which I believe is a new personal high! It's rank 1,584.
  7. @daisy jane Congratulations on making T21!!! Welcome to the stars!!! I'm so thrilled for you! @Maaka Congrats on T27! I finish on 12840 lift, rank 1954. I'll have to settle for doing well only in light season since 311 F2P orbs did not net me a single Naga (only 2 Legendary Tikis and a Legendary Lyn) - c'est la vie...
  8. A big thank you to @Diovani Bressan for linking my VG predictor! I've actually made two versions - he linked version A (link), and here is the link to version B. There's no difference between them, but sometimes one will stop working for some inexplicable reason, so if one fails, you have the other to fall back on. Something you'll notice after the first hour is that a name will be colored magenta at the top of the "Raw data" sheet. That person is "Team Feathers" for that round, and it's determined solely by the lowest percentage in the first hour. Enjoy! If you see any issues with either predictor, please let me know!
  9. Link to my orb and banner spreadsheet here Discuss away!
  10. If I have accounted for everything correctly, we have at least 299 orbs this month, excluding what we'll get from Golden Week and extra Tier 21 orbs. I don't know if I've accounted for Tap Battle 100% correctly, but that's the best estimate I have. We should easily cross 300 orbs for the month. My updated orb and banner sheet.
  11. Male Grima wins! Top 1K overall and just barely missed top 10K for my army in the final round. For those of you who used my predictor - what did you think of it? I welcome all feedback and constructive criticism. It appears both sides get an endurance multiplier if the margin is less than 1%, other than the very first hour. I assume this is to get us out of same hell faster. The predictor you folks have access to account for this yet, which threw some of the predictions towards the end of the final round significantly off. There is also apparently no "afterglow", i.e. increased votes after a disadvantage multiplier, unlike with the old system, so I'll have to eliminate that. I have been working on a newer version privately that does account the endurance multiplier when it's same hell, and it seems to run a lot better and give better predictions. A lot of work will need to be done to hopefully get the predictions within 10% of the actual value. Thank you again @Diovani Bressan for sharing the link to the predictor, and I look forward to the next VG, when I hope it will work a bit better!
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