Don Draper

.

.

.

http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=50528#entry3433963

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

"I wasn't telling him how much time he should spend on video games. I was merely challenging the claim that he doesn't have more time to spend on video games!" Please answer two questions for me, so I know what kind of person I'm dealing with here: 1) How old are you 2) Have you ever worked a day in your life

How ignorant can you possibly be? As lame as save-states are, what exactly gives you the right to judge how much time people should/shouldn't allocate to video games? You sound like a self-centered child with a sheltered worldview and complete lack of empathy for others.

.

.

.

He had leaked "Pokemon from Pokemon X and Y". I would absolutely say the chances of one making this exact prediction prior to Greninja's reveal and having that prediction be correct would be around 50% You can argue whether it's 70% or whatever, but it really doesn't change anything. Show me the posts, I'd be happy to calculate the estimated chances. Note that these people cannot have a single deconfirmed character on their list in order to hold them to the same standard as the Gematsu leaker. I'll tell you right now though, unless Wii Fit Trainer was on any of these lists, the percentages will not be even remotely close.

Then I will include Palutena/Greninja, and consider Palutena and Little Mac's chances as 85% as opposed to 50%. I'm now getting an estimated 0.002258% chance of the Gematsu leaker correctly predicting Little Mac, Palutena, Mii Fighter, Villager, Wii Fit Trainer, Greninja, PacMan and Mega Man through sheer dumb luck. Of course this isn't scientific by any means, but it does hopefully illustrate how improbable this scenario is. Right, but the point I was trying to make was that the amount of predicted rosters that were submitted as leaks is significantly lower than the total amount of predicted rosters period. It's another variable to account for.

In my original argument, I was specially referring to the first six newcomers that were leaked. I was actually being generous by not factoring in the second leak. Regardless of how "vague" or "expected" those two additional newcomers are (Palutena, Greninja), their chances of being correctly predicted are less than 100%. By bringing these newcomers into the fold, you've weakened your argument, not strengthened it. "Animal Crossing guy" is broad, but I would still argue that the chances of any Animal Crossing newcomer being randomly predicted are equal to or less than 50%. Sakurai had specifically stated his reasoning for why an Animal Crossing character wasn't in Brawl, and most had assumed his reasoning would hold true for the next Smash game. I should also mention the statistical improbability of the Gematsu leaker's "lucky guesses" being submitted as a leak. This roster "prediction" didn't happen in a vacuum; it was emailed to Gematsu claiming to be leaked information. Our of all the roster predictions that were made prior to Smash Wii U's reveal, how many actually claimed to be leaks? In the end, we're arguing semantics. It's already statistically improbable that Wii Fit Trainer alone was a lucky guess, and I don't understand how somebody could argue that the chances of the roster being leaked are any lower than this. Especially considering another high-profile Nintendo release (Pokemon X/Y) was leaked in a similar fashion. Brawl's roster was also leaked before release, albeit, only a month before release as opposed to years before By the way, I'm sure you know this already, but a Rythym Heaven enemy has been confirmed to appear in Smash Run. It's only a matter of time until Chorus Men are confirmed:

I don't think you fully grasp the statistical improbability of the Gematsu leaker "randomly" guessing newcomers. Wii Fit Trainer I don't believe was on a single character list, prediction list, etc. If she was, please link it to me. One doesn't just "accidentally" guess Wii Fit Trainer. Then there's the fact that he went six for six guessing newcomers for the first leak. Imagine flipping six coins, and correctly calling the outcome of all of them. Now imagine one of those coins is replaced by a 1000 sided die to represent Wii Fit Trainer. The chances of predicting the number on that die PLUS the outcome of five consecutive coin flips is astronomically low. Well, specifically, there's a 0.003125% chance of it happening.... Trying to argue that the leak was pure luck just completely ignores basic probability. Especially when there's a much more logical explanation (that being, that there is in fact a person who leaked details of the game).

.

.

Yeah, Gym 2 looks like one of the most difficult from a speedrun perspective, just because your Pokemon are so underleveled. Apart from Team Flare, most of the Trainer battles in general can be skipped.

.

.