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About Irysa

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    Thracia 776

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  1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yk2FMu8uSAs&list=PLzHc9vjq1MicDyt1rGpaLhdyIfmMGpxHQ&index=14 Updated with Kent % version. The total expected turncount for Lyn Hard Mode with Kent as your primary Paladin is is 49~ (50 if you add in the extra turn the game counts on defend maps). Kent costs about 3.5 turns compared to Sain as a result. Most of the turnloss was in Chapter 3 (can't be 3 turned with Kent as a primary EXP candidate), and Chapter 10 (can't be 3 turned by Kent unless he crits or somehow has 14 str like Sain), along with moderate "leaks" of turns here and there thanks to his bad luck and inability to finish off enemies in less attacks requiring extra hits from other characters. Kent's reduced strength actually reduces reliability the most out of anything else, and his skill increase does not make up for it. His higher speed barely mattered at all because he needed to also have better strength to 2HKO properly even whilst doubling. It seems unlikely Kent can eke back 3 turns in HHM considering that Marcus does so much of the heavy lifting, and Sain's speed is pretty sufficient on the whole. In the future I'll be taking the Sain file to HHM and doing an ETC run of FE7 as a whole. As a comparative note, here are the Cav's averages and 90% individual binomial stats. You can see how Sain's better growth and base distribution makes him compare much better to his average stats (lower variance) wheras Kent's middling growths with typical 5% increases to make up for lower bases hurt him quite a bit more. Averages at 12/3 Sain 31.4 16.8 9.55 12.2 8.55 10.6 3.6 Kent 33.05 12.2 13.5 13.85 4.6 10.25 5.25 90% Individual Binomials at 12/3 Sain 29 15 7 10 6 9 2 Kent 31 10 11 12 3 8 3
  2. https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzHc9vjq1MicDyt1rGpaLhdyIfmMGpxHQ This project is intended to serve as an introduction and demonstration of the application of both the Expected Turncount metric and "Reliable Stats" / "10% Quantille" / "90% binomial" / "Pessimistic Mode". Both of these are attributes that when utilised can help to make strategic comparisons between units more grounded in hard evidence rather than rhetoric. Most existing well documented playthroughs are extremely rig heavy Low Turn Count playthroughs, where player stats are massively inflated and strategies are very unreliable, or 0% runs where many otherwise useful growth units are nearly useless. Whilst these runs are valuable and interesting in their own right, they aren't very representative of more "normal" play, making it difficult to cite them comprehensively as evidence in debates about how good characters are for more standard play. Expected Turncount helps to account for the "wasted" turns lost to resetting in unreliable strategies, and there is a video to explain exactly how it works at the start of the playlist. 10% Quantile allows you to reward the increased reliability of high growth units without inflating the relevance of mediocre ones, whilst maintaining the importance of good base stats. Whilst the community has often used average stats as a guideline before, I believe that these are not a good way to look at units in practical application, as a units average in any given stat is typically only about 60%~ likely to be at least that number, and when you start combining averages for multiple stats such as Strength and Speed, these values start to get less and less likely. A 90% threshold allows you to say with confidence that a unit can most almost certainly kill certain enemies or survive certain attacks when trained, which matters more than the 20 to 30%~ of the time they were on their stacked offensive averages. Most of the descriptions on each video get more into the individual strategies and the calculations involved for the expected turncount on each map. In the future I plan to show how Kent is definitively and provably less efficient than Sain as a result of his worse base stat distribution and more middling, less reliable growths, and exactly how many turns you could expect him to cost on average. If you find this sort of thing interesting, I run a discord dedicated to LTC and Efficiency strategies in Fire Emblem. If you would like to join, feel free to send me a PM and I'll send you an invite. As a final note, there should be at least one small surprise in this run even if you're familiar with FE7, so I hope you take the time to watch it. Thanks.
  3. Hey so, a while back I made a discord for LTC/Efficiency that was an attempt to unite different community bases. Originally I'd hoped to talk about it on SF to attract more players but I kinda stopped using the site and wasn't really allowed to just pop up to blatantly low effort advertise it, so I was planning on a project to make a thread with, and then drop the hint in the same thread, but uh, things happened and that project got stalled (working on it again though, people interested in reliability should like it) Anyway the point is anyone can PM me for an invite, there's no vetting procedure or anything. I just want to keep track of who's joining and I find if anyone actually bothers to ask for an invite it indicates they probably care enough not to shitpost all the time. If you want in just send me a message.
  4. C21 - 4/143 Turns, 2 Rescue 2 Again C22 - 4/147 Turns, 1 Again C23 - 2/149 Turns, 2 Rescue 1 Again Final - 2/151 Turns, 3 Rescue 1 Again Done after like 3 years lol
  5. C20x - 4/139 Turns 1 Again I redid 20 to Hammerne Rescue in a spare turn for Malicia so some levels are inconsistent. Strat was the same. I have excess staves left over so I I used the Again staff to improve reliability a bit, let Marth soak EXP and save some money. MU helpfully makes up for the fact Ryan isn't 29 AS (granted I've refused to dump Speedwings onto him because I rigged him a lot early on so I'm pretending I gave him a bunch already)
  6. C18 - 2/127 Turns 1 Rescue C19 - 3/130 Turns 2 Rescue 2 Again C20 - 5/135 Turns Standard Nostank 18, stole Gradivus's 0% strat to skip all of 19 (fuck you Wolfguard), did a nice single crit Hardin kill with Warrior!Ryan @ Parthia and Hero!Barst @ Hauteclere, a combo I don't think anyone else has done before Planning on blitzing endgame with my craploads of staff uses left. EDIT: Shit, I forgot to Hammerne Rescue lol
  7. C16x - 2/121 Turns No crits needed but MU has very high chances to crit at least one enemy with an Iron Bow which simplifies stuff. Cain hit B Swords as a Paladin/Horseman. C17 - 4/125 Turns Got the Angelic Robe and 4 Turned with 1 Rescue (actually kind of a pita because of that fucking Sniper). Cord hid A Staves as a Bishop UNIT CLASS LEVEL HP STR MAG SKL SPD LCK DEF RES WEXP BOOSTERS Marth Lord 23.70 43 20 00 24 25 25 16 00 B Swd Growth Drop, 1 Wing MyUnit Sage 15/13.53 51 13 22 26 24 22 06 12 A Tme C Stf Palla D.Knight 12/16.64 55 26 01 26 23 13 26 03 A Lnc C Axe 2 Robes, 3 Shields, 1 Wing Ryan Horseman 14/13.80 43 23 00 28 25 16 16 03 A Bow C Swd 1 Scroll Barst Berserker 12/12.30 43 27 00 21 26 14 15 03 A Axe 1 Scroll, 1 Drop Cain Paladin 15/12.66 46 24 00 26 24 19 20 07 B Swd C Lnc Cecille F.Knight 18/12.43 45 20 07 26 26 21 16 12 C Swd B Lnc Malicia Sage 11/04.91 30 03 15 05 15 17 07 07 D Tme A Stf Etzel Sage ??/10.95 34 03 14 17 14 09 11 12 B Tme C Stf Cord Sorcerer 15/04.26 32 06 10 13 19 13 06 12 D Tme B Stf
  8. RIP literally everyone Congratulations on a job well done, I've been following but didn't have much to say about past chapters. Now do it on H4 deathless
  9. C16 - 2/119 Turns 2 Turns Gave Palla the Dracoshield from the last map. I neglected to forge a Javelin or the Armorslayer bcuz I'm a cheapskate. I also refused to let Cain miss a single potential piece of Sword WEXP so he had to Wo Dao crit instead of just replacing Barst as the Horseman bosskiller. Astram would have hit the save point if the enemy thief got in the way but I just made attempts if he didn't hit it just for the sake of time.
  10. Marth!Xane Waaaao I also like that you snagged the Swordslayer too. Hope it helps vs those asshole heroes and swordmasters later.
  11. IM HYPE AS SHIT FOR BELF USING THE SPEAR TO END ALL SPEARS No but seriously, these are great so far. Keep it up, can't wait to see more.
  12. I like how bantu doesnt even get mentioned lol
  13. are you sure you won't miss cecille's flying suicide potential in c5? I guess you can use catria instead...
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