Irysa
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yk2FMu8uSAs&list=PLzHc9vjq1MicDyt1rGpaLhdyIfmMGpxHQ&index=14
Updated with Kent % version.
The total expected turncount for Lyn Hard Mode with Kent as your primary Paladin is is 49~ (50 if you add in the extra turn the game counts on defend maps).
Kent costs about 3.5 turns compared to Sain as a result. Most of the turnloss was in Chapter 3 (can't be 3 turned with Kent as a primary EXP candidate), and Chapter 10 (can't be 3 turned by Kent unless he crits or somehow has 14 str like Sain), along with moderate "leaks" of turns here and there thanks to his bad luck and inability to finish off enemies in less attacks requiring extra hits from other characters. Kent's reduced strength actually reduces reliability the most out of anything else, and his skill increase does not make up for it. His higher speed barely mattered at all because he needed to also have better strength to 2HKO properly even whilst doubling. It seems unlikely Kent can eke back 3 turns in HHM considering that Marcus does so much of the heavy lifting, and Sain's speed is pretty sufficient on the whole.
In the future I'll be taking the Sain file to HHM and doing an ETC run of FE7 as a whole.
As a comparative note, here are the Cav's averages and 90% individual binomial stats. You can see how Sain's better growth and base distribution makes him compare much better to his average stats (lower variance) wheras Kent's middling growths with typical 5% increases to make up for lower bases hurt him quite a bit more.
Averages at 12/3 Sain 31.4 16.8 9.55 12.2 8.55 10.6 3.6 Kent 33.05 12.2 13.5 13.85 4.6 10.25 5.25 90% Individual Binomials at 12/3 Sain 29 15 7 10 6 9 2 Kent 31 10 11 12 3 8 3 -
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzHc9vjq1MicDyt1rGpaLhdyIfmMGpxHQ
This project is intended to serve as an introduction and demonstration of the application of both the Expected Turncount metric and "Reliable Stats" / "10% Quantille" / "90% binomial" / "Pessimistic Mode". Both of these are attributes that when utilised can help to make strategic comparisons between units more grounded in hard evidence rather than rhetoric.
Most existing well documented playthroughs are extremely rig heavy Low Turn Count playthroughs, where player stats are massively inflated and strategies are very unreliable, or 0% runs where many otherwise useful growth units are nearly useless. Whilst these runs are valuable and interesting in their own right, they aren't very representative of more "normal" play, making it difficult to cite them comprehensively as evidence in debates about how good characters are for more standard play.
Expected Turncount helps to account for the "wasted" turns lost to resetting in unreliable strategies, and there is a video to explain exactly how it works at the start of the playlist. 10% Quantile allows you to reward the increased reliability of high growth units without inflating the relevance of mediocre ones, whilst maintaining the importance of good base stats.
Whilst the community has often used average stats as a guideline before, I believe that these are not a good way to look at units in practical application, as a units average in any given stat is typically only about 60%~ likely to be at least that number, and when you start combining averages for multiple stats such as Strength and Speed, these values start to get less and less likely. A 90% threshold allows you to say with confidence that a unit can most almost certainly kill certain enemies or survive certain attacks when trained, which matters more than the 20 to 30%~ of the time they were on their stacked offensive averages.
Most of the descriptions on each video get more into the individual strategies and the calculations involved for the expected turncount on each map. In the future I plan to show how Kent is definitively and provably less efficient than Sain as a result of his worse base stat distribution and more middling, less reliable growths, and exactly how many turns you could expect him to cost on average.
If you find this sort of thing interesting, I run a discord dedicated to LTC and Efficiency strategies in Fire Emblem. If you would like to join, feel free to send me a PM and I'll send you an invite.
As a final note, there should be at least one small surprise in this run even if you're familiar with FE7, so I hope you take the time to watch it. Thanks.
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On 8/25/2019 at 10:35 AM, Verve said:
I'm pretty new to Serenes Forest as a forum, wondering where are there discussions about LTC strats (besides this thread of course), or is it off forum somewhere? BE also has a small percent crit dependent 5 turn for Ch1 that I accidentally stumbled upon that I wanted to talk about but no idea exactly where.
On 8/25/2019 at 5:52 PM, OCDbox said:Same. And also interested in knowing.
Hey so, a while back I made a discord for LTC/Efficiency that was an attempt to unite different community bases. Originally I'd hoped to talk about it on SF to attract more players but I kinda stopped using the site and wasn't really allowed to just pop up to blatantly low effort advertise it, so I was planning on a project to make a thread with, and then drop the hint in the same thread, but uh, things happened and that project got stalled (working on it again though, people interested in reliability should like it)
Anyway the point is anyone can PM me for an invite, there's no vetting procedure or anything. I just want to keep track of who's joining and I find if anyone actually bothers to ask for an invite it indicates they probably care enough not to shitpost all the time. If you want in just send me a message. -
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C20x - 4/139 Turns 1 Again
I redid 20 to Hammerne Rescue in a spare turn for Malicia so some levels are inconsistent. Strat was the same. I have excess staves left over so I I used the Again staff to improve reliability a bit, let Marth soak EXP and save some money. MU helpfully makes up for the fact Ryan isn't 29 AS (granted I've refused to dump Speedwings onto him because I rigged him a lot early on so I'm pretending I gave him a bunch already) -
C18 - 2/127 Turns 1 Rescue
C19 - 3/130 Turns 2 Rescue 2 Again
C20 - 5/135 Turns
Standard Nostank 18, stole Gradivus's 0% strat to skip all of 19 (fuck you Wolfguard), did a nice single crit Hardin kill with Warrior!Ryan @ Parthia and Hero!Barst @ Hauteclere, a combo I don't think anyone else has done before
Planning on blitzing endgame with my craploads of staff uses left.
EDIT: Shit, I forgot to Hammerne Rescue lol
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C16x - 2/121 Turns
No crits needed but MU has very high chances to crit at least one enemy with an Iron Bow which simplifies stuff. Cain hit B Swords as a Paladin/Horseman.
C17 - 4/125 Turns
Got the Angelic Robe and 4 Turned with 1 Rescue (actually kind of a pita because of that fucking Sniper). Cord hid A Staves as a Bishop
UNIT CLASS LEVEL HP STR MAG SKL SPD LCK DEF RES WEXP BOOSTERS Marth Lord 23.70 43 20 00 24 25 25 16 00 B Swd Growth Drop, 1 Wing MyUnit Sage 15/13.53 51 13 22 26 24 22 06 12 A Tme C Stf Palla D.Knight 12/16.64 55 26 01 26 23 13 26 03 A Lnc C Axe 2 Robes, 3 Shields, 1 Wing Ryan Horseman 14/13.80 43 23 00 28 25 16 16 03 A Bow C Swd 1 Scroll Barst Berserker 12/12.30 43 27 00 21 26 14 15 03 A Axe 1 Scroll, 1 Drop Cain Paladin 15/12.66 46 24 00 26 24 19 20 07 B Swd C Lnc Cecille F.Knight 18/12.43 45 20 07 26 26 21 16 12 C Swd B Lnc Malicia Sage 11/04.91 30 03 15 05 15 17 07 07 D Tme A Stf Etzel Sage ??/10.95 34 03 14 17 14 09 11 12 B Tme C Stf Cord Sorcerer 15/04.26 32 06 10 13 19 13 06 12 D Tme B Stf
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7 hours ago, Gradivus. said:
There's actually a H4 deathless run in the works right now, Ziggy McDougal uploaded a C19 clear for it.
that was h3
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RIP literally everyone
Congratulations on a job well done, I've been following but didn't have much to say about past chapters.
Now do it on H4 deathless -
C16 - 2/119 Turns
2 Turns
Gave Palla the Dracoshield from the last map.
I neglected to forge a Javelin or the Armorslayer bcuz I'm a cheapskate. I also refused to let Cain miss a single potential piece of Sword WEXP so he had to Wo Dao crit instead of just replacing Barst as the Horseman bosskiller.
Astram would have hit the save point if the enemy thief got in the way but I just made attempts if he didn't hit it just for the sake of time. -
Marth!Xane
Waaaao
I also like that you snagged the Swordslayer too. Hope it helps vs those asshole heroes and swordmasters later. -
On 7/25/2018 at 1:45 AM, Gradivus. said:
Belf got an Arms Scroll mainly to use the Gradivus in the lategame, which he's only 15 lance uses away from at the start of this chapter. The Arms Scroll also helps him now because B lances grants +5 hit and allows him to use Silver Lances.
IM HYPE AS SHIT FOR BELF USING THE SPEAR TO END ALL SPEARS
No but seriously, these are great so far. Keep it up, can't wait to see more.
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I like how bantu doesnt even get mentioned
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are you sure you won't miss cecille's flying suicide potential in c5? I guess you can use catria instead...
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2 hours ago, Valkama said:
Oof
secret motivational strats -
eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Many more sacrifices or crit rigging inc in later chapters? D:
since its you I expect this to actually finish (unlike valk h4 no diss I'd love to see that finished too) -
binged the endgame
I think my fav part of this run was how much use you got out of Merric. I get that it was necessary for the support but hey, it's still Merric use!Big congrats on finishing, was very fun to follow in the midgame and early lategame.
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Roger and Bord going the distance!
This playthrough is legendary
It's like you took the one dumb dream scenario I had of Wendy x Lilina actually helping to save a turn in FE6 and turned it into reality in FE11
auuu -
This was a really impressive and fun chapter to watch! So many small things going on constantly, with the distraction tactics, exact KOs, trading important weapons, blocking enemies in on themselves...it feels like you pulled out all the stops. Really masterful.
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Skipping Jeorge and Merric not having the oomph to OHKO the boss with a crit for that juicy EXP
Feels Bad Man
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I like how everyone makes these tiny little combat contributions and all Wolf does is meatshield for a turn or two despite the fact he was deployed as a Hero instead of a General.
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RE: Previous point about Nanna/Diarmuid
Why does nobody assume Lachesis wasn't just fooling around with both Beowulf and Finn at the same time and trying to keep it on the down low? When Beowulf says he knows "her true feelings" that to me always just meant he knew what was going on. And considering Fergus exists he probably didn't care that much anyway either.
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Excited to see more of this, and you already saved a turn too!
Really curious as to what you'll be doing for Endgame, I theoried some of it for fun once without Warp on 0%, but obv I didn't have to think about expenses over a whole playthrough.
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C15 - 7/117 Turns
Getting the Dracoshield (Prepare for Def capped Palla) instead of the Energy Drop costs an extra turn due to Marth not being able to feasibly visit on T2. It also costs a Rescue use which could have feasibly been used for a 5 turn without the statbooster instead I think...but 1 Rescue or 1 Again to save 1 turn is pretty meh...so I just took it slower. Not like I'm winning this draft anyway.
Enjoy the fearsome Dracoknight Cord. Originally was going to use Berserker Cord to ORKO one of the Bishops but him doing it as Draco frees up Barst to not be in a speed capped class whilst taking a bosskill. Originally originally was going to have Belf or Etzel handle one of these dudes but hey, whatever works.
Cecille lost a Paladin kill on T6 since Marth crit but he needs the EXP more anyway. MU and Etzel hit internal C Staves, so they can stay as Sage from now on.
Also I'm pretty sure undrafted are allowed to reinforcement block...but if they aren't my strat doesn't change much at all since Ryan, Cord and Cain can all block instead on the last EP.
I probably should have killed Abel...
UNIT CLASS LEVEL HP STR MAG SKL SPD LCK DEF RES WEXP BOOSTERS Marth Lord 22.53 42 19 00 23 25 24 15 00 B Swd Growth Drop, 1 Wing MyUnit Sage 15/12.03 50 13 22 26 24 22 05 12 A Tme C Stf Palla D.Knight 12/15.53 54 26 01 26 23 13 24 03 A Lnc D Axe 2 Robes, 2 Shields, 1 Wing Ryan Horseman 14/12.95 42 22 00 28 24 16 16 03 A Bow C Swd 1 Scroll Barst Berserker 12/11.60 43 26 00 20 26 14 14 03 A Axe 1 Scroll, 1 Drop Cain Paladin 15/10.89 45 22 00 25 23 17 20 06 C Swd C Lnc Cecille F.Knight 18/11.07 44 19 07 26 26 20 16 12 C Swd B Lnc Malicia Sage 11/04.91 30 03 15 05 15 17 07 07 D Tme A Stf Etzel Sage ??/09.35 33 03 14 16 14 09 11 12 B Tme C Stf Cord Sorcerer 15/02.82 30 06 10 12 17 12 06 10 D Tme B Stf
QUINTESSENCE? 2: Understanding Quintessence
in Fire Emblem
Posted
Hey, I finally got around to reading this. I think you make some excellent points and I would agree wholeheartedly that Awakening basically nailed thematically what FE7 fails at, because for all that game's issues, I think it felt complete and I enjoyed the story a lot more than I enjoyed FE7.
I also relate to your earlier points about the experience of writing the original essay and how it became too easy to get bogged down in the inconsistencies, and the influence from RLM in that regard, since I wrote a lot of what ended up getting used in Mekkah's critical FE7 series. These days I am much lighter on the story and in a way I think it was a way just to get the frustration out and it definitely also helped evolve my views on the series and games more in a way that isn't quite as bitter as it might have sounded.
Appreciate you putting this together, it's cool we that there's still so much that can be said about FE7 today.