FE9 Tier list v3

[dondon151]

Also where did we even get the 75% for a 2 turn from? Marcia with at least 13 str, 22 spd should be able to 2RKO Muarim on successive player phase and enemy phase attacks with a max MT max hit Steel Lance forge. With max hit, she should have around 100 hit.

Edited September 16, 2011 by dondon151

[Lord Raven]

I was discussing this with dondon too, and to add to that you can always have Jill lure things away from Marcia unequipped, that way you don't see unnecessary kills preventing perfect BEXP.

Reseting is obviously inefficient. You are, at the very least, forced to replay the entire chapter over again from the start. There's also the additional inconvenience of physically restarting the system and re-navigating through the game's menus. Reseting is also not in any way required in an efficient run. I've made a couple no-reset efficient runs myself. Trial and error is helpful when deriving efficient strategies (which only needs to be done once). Once you have the efficient strategies, you needn't restart unless they're unreliable.

B+X+Start, and that just means you wasted only 10 minutes. How will people be able to live with themselves.

Exactly. A critical unit dying is synonymous with "losing".

So it's either you have a 25% chance of losing or having a 75% chance of the lowest turn clear with a large amount of reliability. Not hard to want to choose the latter option.

There's no more reliable 1-turn strategy, and a 2-turn clear is almost guaranteed in the unlikely event that we miss. I don't know what point you're trying to make.

It's also technically unlikely that you lose some of the low turn clears I've suggested. You've lampooned them based on the fact that they weren't 100%... just as I am doing the same to you.

There are (near) 100% reliable 3-turn rescue-drop strategies to clear C15. Either Jill or Marcia can safely drop a promoted unit (on turn 2) that can deal good damage to Muarim (a Sage or Swordmaster are ideal) and finish off Muarim on turn 3 with high accuracy. There is no debate that a Bexp-infused Marcia is a very valuable unit in C15. But her solo 2-turn strategy is not the only efficient strategy that should be considered for the purpose of this tier list. As for additional items, Guard and the Silver Blade are certainly nice to have. It's probably not a motivating factor, but it is a nice bonus (the Silver Blade is the most powerful sword until C24 and Guard is a nice skill).

It's still the _most_ efficient. I've said repeatedly it won't be.

I guess when one argument doesn't work you prefer to switch to another in stride. Tormod possesses no Mage Band or Spirit Dust "advantage" over Soren, since those are resources both can use. As for Tormod's extra attack from supports, they aren't even sufficient to counter Soren's natural Magic lead (and won't always be in play/range, yadda, yadda...). Moreover, Soren is likely to have a small but notable level lead over Tormod with an equivalent amount of Bexp. Oh, and Soren can match Tormod's accuracy even with his supports due to far superior Skill. And Soren has a potential Heaven support with Stefan.

I didn't mean to say advantages, but he can afford to be at a lower level than you suggest (so can Soren) because of the Mage Band. In which case, nobody gives a fuck about a natural magic lead when you can have a Tormod as low as 20/3ish with a bunch of Mage Band levels and a B Reyson/C Devdan or Calill and still be able to have the accuracy to off the boss as easily as Soren. On top of that, he gets +1 atk at best by that point from Stefan and Tormod's affinity naturally raises Hit anyway. Tormod's better for the job because his contributions in every other chapter outweigh Soren's, therefore it is more efficient to dump resources into him than Soren.

That's exactly what I accused you of.

Yes, and is there any reason I can't judge by my own personal strategies that are giving pretty reliable turn counts?

Reading comprehension is clearly not one of your strongest suits.

Neither is the fact that you are not staying true to anything you have claimed.

And I quote, from you:

Low-resources / Staffbot: Soren > Ilyana >> Tormod

High-resources / Trained: Soren ~= Tormod >> Ilyana

Your words about Soren's contributions pre-Chapter 14:

Chapter 4: Soren can chip here and there, but probably isn't contributing much towards completing the chapter (he can deal good damage to the boss, but gets 2HKO'd in return).

So he doesn't do much.

Chapter 5: Self improvement for Soren. He can reach level 3 by the end of the chapter.

So he doesn't help clear a map.

Chapter 6: Soren is a deadweight here.

lol

Chapter 7: This is a rout, and Soren can contribute by teaming up with Mia or Oscar or Ike or Boyd for kills, because they aren't (with the possible exception of a blessed Boyd or Ike) ORKO machines at this point. Soren can easily get to level 5 by the end of this chapter.

Arguably a point in his favor.

Chapter 8: Well, Soren can take ~800 Bexp to ORKO everything in this chapter, but that won't notably help our efforts, so Soren can just use this for self improvement to get up to level 7. Ilyana can chip a few rounds for some Cexp.

Why give Soren 800 BEXP when it's way better used on mounted units later on? What use is ORKOing if his 6 move means he's left behind easily?

Chapter 9: Soren and Ilyana need to be around level 9-10 (200-350 Bexp) to double the non-Myrmidons on the beach. They won't be able to ORKO without a forge (not affordable at this point), but they can help out a little.

So they can only help out a little.

Chapter 10: If you stealth, the Mages do nothing. If you brute-force, they still probably do nothing.

They do nothing.

Chapter 11: Again, with enough Bexp and a forge, Soren and Ilyana can become ORKO machines, but this won't much help our efforts. At level 11, Soren/Ilyana can still double and 3HKO most enemies, so they can contribute a little getting to the south or north houses.

Don't help out efforts much.

Chapter 12: Unless we early-clear with Super Marcia, we have several turns for our Mage to chip against Ravens for self-improvement. Hardly anybody can double the Ravens, so Soren/Ilyana's contributions on player phase are as good as most (Soren can almost 2HKO with Elwind). Of course, they can't tank the Ravens, so they need to be kept safe (trivial). They can reach level 13 or 14 here.

Wind gets +1 damage against Ravens and like +4 with Elwind. That's hardly any more contribution than your physical units with much greater attack, noting that Ravens have enough resistance to make the resistance/defense gap negligible considering the Mt gap between tomes/weapons.

Chapter 13: To early-clear this chapter, we need to rout the enemies, and Soren/Ilyana can help here. With a Fire or Thunder forge, a level 14 Soren can ORKO everthing he doubles (he misses the Ravens, the Halberdiers, and most Myrmidons). A level 14/15 Ilyana misses out on a lot of doubles. If we give her a Speedwing, she can match Soren's performance with a Thunder forge.

Everyone helps in a rout. Second chapter where he's good for something.

Chapter 14: Soren/Ilyana are likely to get left behind here. They can contribute on turn 1 by granting vision (Mages have better vision than most).

Tiny contribution.

Chapter 15: Soren/Ilyana can deal great damage to Muarim while avoiding his counter-attacks, so they are worth considering as a drop candidate for a 3-turn clear. We will almost certainly want to promote them for this strategy. From level 16, it will take ~650 more Bexp (or 500 and a Seal) to get them to 20/1. With a fire forge, Soren can deal 19 damage, 21 with a Spirit Dust. Ilyana can deal 17 or 19. All at 100% accuracy. This is enough to let your trained flier 2HKO Muarim (player phase and enemy phase) with a Steel forge or maybe even OHKO with a Laguz Lance if you want to risk the inaccuracy. With even more resources (20/5 + Speedwing + Spirit Dust), Soren can pull off an impressive ORKO of Muarim, but that's probably only relevant in draft play.

None of them are reaching Muarim in time without getting completely fucking mauled and 20/5 is impossible and horribly inefficient.

So here's when Tormod comes in.

Chapter 16: If we give Tormod 977 Bexp, he can get up to level 16. Now he's received about the same resources as Soren/Ilyana. He's received a little more Bexp, but received it later when it isn't quite as valuable, and hasn't needed any Cexp (some of which other units were deprived of when Soren/Ilyana received them). In this chapter, Soren and Ilyana are going to be left behind, in all likelihood. They can stay behind and pick off the reinforcements for no reason other than self-improvement. Tormod might also struggle to keep up here with only 7 mov. He can't double the Myrmidons or even all of the Mages, so he can't do much either (if he gets to the Knights, he can 2HKO with a forge). He might want to just wait for the reinforcements for Cexp.

So Tormod can't do much but he can at least attack or chip just cause of his +2 move.

Chapter 17-1: A rout chapter where the Mages might be able to help out a little. Let's take a look at their stats:

20/2 Soren

31 HP, 3 Str, 19 Mag, 21 Skl, 18 Spd, 11 Lck, 7 Def, 20 Res

20/2 Ilyana

30.75 HP, 6.75 Str, 16.5 Mag, 18.75 Skl, 15.5 Spd, 12.75 Lck, 7.25 Def, 19.5 Res

17 Tormod

25 HP, 4 Str, 14.5 Mag, 13 Skl, 13.5 Spd, 11.5 Lck, 6.5 Def, 13.5 Res

Soren is in great shape, being able to ORKO every enemy except the reinforcement Myrmidons (who are devilishly fast). Ilyana with a Speedwing is almost as good, but Tormod and sans-Speedwing Ilyana are just going to be able to chip here (Tormod with 1 extra mov).

Yes because Soren is reaching 20/2 when Tormod is definitely not. Because Soren's move is so good that he'll be getting combat in many of the more narrow maps in this game (protip: he won't because maps in the mid game get too narrow for him to really do anything). Mages help little in this chapter, but Tormod once again reaches enemies easier so he is still most useful.

Chapter 17-2: All three Mages are likely to get left behind in this race to the finish.

So all are useless.

Chapter 17-3: Defending is trivial, so this is the longest self-improvement chapter in the game. In addition to getting a bunch of Cexp (Tormod might even promote here), the Mages probably want to focus on improving key weapon levels. Soren and Ilyana want to get C Fire (ideally by Chapter 20 for Meteor), while Tormod might want to work towards C Thunder (by Chapter 23 for Bolting), but only after he's promoted. Thanks to the vast amount of enemies and Venin weapons, it also shouldn't be difficult for Soren/Ilyana to find a healing targets. Soren/Ilyana might even reach D Staves during this chapter if you've been taking advantage of every healing opportunity.

You don't need anyone to work towards shit, you get enough (two) arms scrolls for Soren and Tormod. Soren needs 2 Arms Scrolls for the siege tomes whereas Tormod only needs one.

Chapter 17-4: I don't see any of the Mages doing much here.

Nope.

Chapter 18: If Tormod hasn't promoted yet, we should Seal / Bexp (<100) him. Soren/Ilyana will be left behind in this race while a newly promoted Tormod just might keep up. Soren/Ilyana are destined to stay behind and help deal with the reinforcements. A promoted Tormod can double most of the enemies here, and with a forge and Spirit Dust, he can 2HKO them all, so that's nice.

Tormod can keep up if promoted (not a very big if; he is very likely by this point) and he can kill quit easily. Especially with a leftover Forge and a spirit dust. Soren and Ilyana's move sucks too much.

Chapter 19: It's over before the Sages can do much.

Yep.

Chapter 20: If your Sages have C Fire, they can siege bomb Shiharam. They're likely to do at least as well as base Calill, but not much better... They can also help visit houses, but they need to be careful because the Wyvern Riders here can easily kill the Sages if they have the opportunity.

Guess who doesn't need resources for C Fire... Tormod! And Calill, but Tormod too. He also gets into Shiharam's range easier while being in the back of a formation, and is the most durable of them all so he can go in without fearing getting killed. Tormod's top dog here. Soren and Ilyana are a big if for getting a Meteor at this point and they still can't reach Shiharam as comfortably as Tormod can.

Chapter 21: Soren/Ilyana's poor movement definitely hurts them here. The best they can hope for is to accompany some units up north on a chest looting quest. Tormod isn't much better, because while he can keep up for a few turns, he's unlikely to be ferried to the throne room, so he might also be helping to loot some chests.

He helps with looting chests and he doesn't do enough damage to kill the Sage. You know why this is a good thing? The Bishop near the throne room would rather heal the Sage than Sleep one of your units. Soren and Ilyana can't even reach there by this point, and Tormod can actually smack Ena with a Bolting and get into range by around Turn 6 when he needs to. Soren and Ilyana's move isn't nearly enough to do that, especially since narrow corridors don't give them enough spaces to move (and let's face it, their priority to go through the narrow corridors is pretty low for a multitude of reasons).

stupid shit about Schaeffer

Already covered.

Chapter 23: I like to siege the Ballistae operators in this chapter (to clear the way for Reyson). With Bolting (easily obtained in Chapter 22), Spirit Dust Soren can OHKO all but one of the operators. Bolting requires C Thunder, which isn't trivial to get along with C Fire, so it might be necessary to use an Arms Scroll for one of them. Ilyana and Tormod need some lucky level-ups and/or both Spirit Dusts (the latter of which is generally inefficient to get) to have a chance to OHKO the Ballistae operators here. However, with a Speedwings or Energy Drop, they might be able to double some of the operators with Meteor, which is pretty cool. All three Sages, but definitely Soren and Ilyana, may need to be ferried to get within range of the Ballistae. Otherwise, the Sages can't do much in this chapter except inconsequentially fight reinforcements.

Tormod can far more easily get shoved into the position to OHKO the first operator with a Meteor- and that's from the back of a formation. He needs Reyson A to do this on top of a bunch of Mage Band and Spirit Dusts, but that's not a big deal for him. With a second Shove or Smite, he can kill the Sniper that operates the other Ballista on Turn 2 with either Bolting or Meteor, and Soren/Ilyana are literally unable to do that. This allows your fliers (namely Reyson) to get there pretty fast. He is also good for finishing off Petrine, who is surprisingly quite a bitch to finish off in efficiency because of her stats.

Chapter 24: A race to the finish will leave Soren/Ilyana behind. Tormod can mostly keep up and heal/attack as needed.

There you go, Tormod is once again doing better than them.

Chapter 25: The last rout chapter, so let's take another look at stats, assuming 3 levels for Soren/Ilyana and 4 levels for Tormod (a bit generous, but maybe we throw them a little Bexp):

Soren and Tormod can double all of the enemies except the Swordmasters and fast laguz. Ilyana struggles to double a lot of enemies unless we gave her a Speedwing. 20/22 Magic and a Fire/Thunder forge is generally enough to 2HKO most enemies, but Soren's extra Magic and Adept can come in handy against some of the foes. Of course, we're going to have trouble getting Soren and Ilyana to reach many enemies in the first place. If they have C Staves (possible if healing was a priority), they're probably best off healing with Physic. Soren, in particular, is pretty impressive with his 12-13 Physic range, letting him heal across the map. They can also use siege tomes to clear out some of the more pesky enemies. Doubling with Blizzard might be possible here, although Ilyana and Tormod might need an Arms Scroll to weild it. Tormod can keep up on the mountain trails, healing and attacking as needed. All of the Sages can tank and deal decent damage against Gromell, if he can be lured to them (Soren being the best for this task).

So Ilyana sucks and we can rely on Adept to kill things. Good to know... from the guy who said a 75% 2-turn blows.

Soren is not using Physic at this point. You stated numerous times he is not catching up due to his movement, and the only way to get staff EXP is by using them... and he is not healing often enough to hit Physic level. Neither is Tormod, but at least he has a higher chance (slightly though, because I doubt he cares enough about healing to do it).

Chapter 26: The Sages probably won't be doing much to help in this straight-forward chapter. Tormod might be able to keep up and clear some enemies, but he has to be careful not to get swarmed. If they can get in range (easy for Tormod), they might be able to weaken Bertram with siege magic.

He won't get swarmed and it takes 3 enemies to kill him (and they have something like a 20% chance to kill him due to evasion anyway). His siege use is pretty good paired with Reyson, because he could either clear enemies out of Ike's way or deal with Bertram when necessary (Ike needs some room to move and seize in time while keeping Marcia safe- it's doable). Soren and Ilyana can't do this due to their lack of move.

Chapter 27: Tormod can keep up and contribute offensively here. Soren/Ilyana probably won't be able to do anything except Physic and siege (hopefully Hafedd).

Siege is a very good thing in Tormod's case, and he is more likely to get combat allowing for a 4-turn clear. Soren/Ilyana won't be using physic and Tormod can get into Siege range more often than Tormod/Ilyana because the map is huge.

Chapter 28: Tormod might be able to keep up and help on offense (especially with a Fire forge against beast laguz). Soren/Ilyana can siege if any uses are left.

So Tormod's better for killing enemy laguz and he can siege. And he can more easily heal your chars that are being attacked by Laguz.

Endgame: The Sages probably aren't going to make big contributions in endgame. They can use up the remaining siege tomes to help clear out Dragons or Bryce. If they have C Staves (trivial for Soren/Ilyana, possible for Tormod), they can help heal during the Ashnard fight. They should all have the Physic range to stay out of Ashnard's range while they heal.

Tormod's move makes him far more valuable than Soren/Ilyana because the map is huge. There's going to be a lot of sieging going on, but Tormod can do 2-range much better and much more often.

Happy?

Reyson is absolutely essential for saving at least 1 turn in almost every chapter he's in. There is no other unit that can make that claim. I can't believe this is even debatable. Reyson's unique utility is unparalleled.

You... have not demonstrated this. You just keep saying this without any demonstration. Nor do you realize Marcia does the exact same thing with Boots for turns before Reyson and turns after Reyson.

LOL. Yeah, we'll give Marcia 1800 Bexp so she can still fail to 2HKO the Knight blocking the Escape square. Lethe also fails to 2HKO the tough units blocking the Escape square. Promoted Oscar or transformed Mordecai are our best options. Titania with a Hammer is our third best choice.

I never said Marcia needed 1800 BEXP especially if we're recruiting Jill.

All of your units (with the possible exception of Tormod) should be promoted by C17-3, Soren included. Sage Soren has enough durability to take an attack or two on enemy phase and enough AS to double most units with Elthunder. Soren can make great progress towards C Thunder here. It is trivial to get Soren to C Thunder (or Fire) by C22 if you plan for it.

No it's not, it is still quite difficult since I'd rather clear out enemies early to make the latter turns lower maintenance than have to deal with a little bit of enemies every turn. Nor is Sage Soren all that likely by this point in the game; even if it was, Soren isn't getting combat every turn because he has little move in a map with a lot of movement penalties.

How can you not understand how 95% is higher than 75%? This just seems like you being needlessly obtuse.

A 75% 2 turn > a 95% 4 turn. What is there to be obtuse about? A fairly reliable low turn vs a pretty reliable (and both are still not 100%) strategy with even more turns. How the fuck am I being needlessly obtuse? Everyone else is being stupidly hardheaded about how tier lists are defined very shittily and not even bothering to agree or disagree (in fact, ignoring outright) because this is the sort of shit that should get hammered out when you define efficiency. Excuse me for having absolutely very little defined standards to judge things by. Edited September 16, 2011 by Mercenary Raven

[Anouleth]

Also where did we even get the 75% for a 2 turn from? Marcia with at least 13 str, 19 spd should be able to 2RKO Muarim on successive player phase and enemy phase attacks with a max MT max hit Steel Lance forge. With max hit, she should have around 100 hit.

If I remember correctly, Muarim moves last. Using that strategy would lead to Marcia potentially killing the Tigers beside Muarim, losing out on a large amount of BEXP and presenting the risk that she dies. Plus, I already elaborated earlier on, that with stuff like the Secret Book, Vantage and so on, Marcia has over 95% success rate even with the Laguz Lance.

A 75% 2 turn > a 95% 4 turn.

Except that's not exactly what you said.

You said: The 4 turn isn't 100%

He said: It's not 100% but it's better than 75%

You said: How so?

The debate here was not whether the extra two turns was more or less valuable than the reliability of the strategy. He says that the chance of success is better, and you do not understand how.

Edited September 16, 2011 by Anouleth

[Lord Raven]

Just covered it but I edited my post. Essentially, a laguzguard Jill that is unequipped could easily lure things away from Marcia- she's only going to be lagging by two spaces. This leads to Volke only getting Boots, but that's not a big deal since you get enough Physic staffs in the future to make use of. There aren't enough turns or damage to warrant going out of your way for a Physic staff.

Edited September 16, 2011 by Mercenary Raven

[aku chi]

Just covered it but I edited my post. Essentially, a laguzguard Jill that is unequipped could easily lure things away from Marcia- she's only going to be lagging by two spaces. This leads to Volke only getting Boots, but that's not a big deal since you get enough Physic staffs in the future to make use of. There aren't enough turns or damage to warrant going out of your way for a Physic staff.

This is a good idea. But Marcia (without the laguzguard or any durability boosters) actually has a chance to be 2HKO'd by Muarim at high hit rates. Then again, all it takes for Marcia to avoid this fate is Vantage, a Seraph Robe, a Dracoshield, or a few more levels of Bexp. BTW, Sothe can get the Physic on turn 2 (or he can get both Guard and the Silver Blade).

Thinking about this chapter further, I think there's a (near) 100% reliable 2-turn strategy using a Sage and Marcia. Marcia starts in the top left deployment slot. On the first turn, somebody rescues your Sage. Somebody else take/gives him/her to Marcia. Mordecai smites and Lethe shoves Marcia. Marcia can then drop the Sage in the exact location I mentioned for the 3-turn strategy, but a turn earlier. I'd like to verify that this works, but it seems sound.

[Lord Raven]

Except that's not exactly what you said.

You said: The 4 turn isn't 100%

He said: It's not 100% but it's better than 75%

You said: How so?

The debate here was not whether the extra two turns was more or less valuable than the reliability of the strategy. He says that the chance of success is better, and you do not understand how.

So extremely petty semantics? Because I was referring to a not-100% 4 turn clear vs a 75% clear.

Does forged Steel Lance with 13 Str even kill some of those Tigers?

Edited September 16, 2011 by Mercenary Raven

[dondon151]

My question is why it's so important to not kill any of the other laguz on the map. At this point in the game, 300 BEXP is not nearly as important as it was earlier in the game.

The debate here was not whether the extra two turns was more or less valuable than the reliability of the strategy. He says that the chance of success is better, and you do not understand how.

An easy explanation is taking the expected values of each strategy:

2 turn clear with 75% CoS has an expected value of: 2 * .75 + 4 * .1875 + 6 * .046875 + ... = 2.54

4 turn clear with 100% CoS has an expected value of 4

Even if you consider the fact that if the 2 turn fails, the chapter has to be done all over again, a 2 turn clear with 75% CoS has a better expected value than a 4, or even 3, turn clear.

[aku chi]

Does forged Steel Lance with 13 Str even kill some of those Tigers?

If Marcia can 3HKO Muarim, she can 2HKO all of the other Tigers. Theoretically, Marcia need only 4HKO and double Muarim for this enemy phase 2-turn strategy. But Marcia needs 21 AS to double Muarim. She'll have 16-17 Str on average at this point. So if Marcia instead used a forged Iron Lance, she might be able to 4HKO Muarim and avoid 2HKOing the other Tigers. But the bigger problem is Marcia being killed by the combined attacks of the Tigers and Muarim (who all have pretty high hit). But with the Laguzguard, Marcia might be able to survive two attacks from Muarim and the two Tiger attacks. Using an unequipped Jill as a decoy is a safer strategy, though.

An easy explanation is taking the expected values of each strategy:

2 turn clear with 75% CoS has an expected value of: 2 * .75 + 4 * .1875 + 6 * .046875 + ... = 2.54

4 turn clear with 100% CoS has an expected value of 4

Even if you consider the fact that if the 2 turn fails, the chapter has to be done all over again, a 2 turn clear with 75% CoS has a better expected value than a 4, or even 3, turn clear.

A 2-turn clear with 75% CoS actually has an expected value of 2.67. But saying the 75% reliable 2-turn clear is more efficient than a 100% reliable 3-turn clear assumes risk neutrality and that resetting has no other costs than re-executing the turns (when in fact it requires manually resetting and re-navigating through menus in the best case, and replaying more of the game in the case that you didn't save immediately before the first turn of the chapter you're playing). Add in the fact that you can get more valuables via a 3-turn clear and you have a more ambiguous picture. But I have no problems considering both the 75% 2-turn and 100% 3-turn strategies efficient.

Edited September 16, 2011 by aku chi

[Lord Raven]

Marcia is able to survive them given an Angelic Robe and she's Level 20/1. She takes ~12 damage on average from two Tigers and ~15 from Muarim. That's assuming Jill doesn't already lure them away.

A 2-turn clear with 75% CoS actually has an expected value of 2.67. But saying the 75% reliable 2-turn clear is more efficient than a 100% reliable 3-turn clear assumes risk neutrality and that resetting has no other costs than re-executing the turns (when in fact it requires manually resetting and re-navigating through menus in the best case, and replaying more of the game in the case that you didn't save immediately before the first turn of the chapter you're playing). Add in the fact that you can get more valuables via a 3-turn clear and you have a more ambiguous picture. But I have no problems considering both the 75% 2-turn and 100% 3-turn strategies efficient.

B+Start+X is a godsend. Edited September 16, 2011 by Mercenary Raven

[dondon151]

A 2-turn clear with 75% CoS actually has an expected value of 2.67. But saying the 75% reliable 2-turn clear is more efficient than a 100% reliable 3-turn clear assumes risk neutrality and that resetting has no other costs than re-executing the turns (when in fact it requires manually resetting and re-navigating through menus in the best case, and replaying more of the game in the case that you didn't save immediately before the first turn of the chapter you're playing).

Trust me, bro. I've reset games many, many times to find the right strategy. Sometimes upwards of 10 times per chapter. It's especially more difficult in my circumstances because I have compromised units and I aim for actions that don't waste time (since the chapters are recorded). I also reset an average of 1-2 times when recording each map due to reading my instructions incorrectly or dropping a unit in the wrong space due to jitters.

So I think what you're saying about the "other costs" of resetting is bullshit. Especially in a game like FE9 where map animations take longer than those in games like FE6-8 and FE10-12. All I do is reset the game and mash start repeatedly to get past the menus. It takes no longer than 6 seconds.

On an unrelated note, explain to me how you calculated the convergent value for the series described explicitly by a_n = 6n * (.25)^n (the formula for expected value of the 2 turn strat), because I don't know how. I only took an approximation for the first 3 terms because the subsequent terms were too small to make any significant difference.

Edited September 16, 2011 by dondon151

[aku chi]

On an unrelated note, explain to me how you calculated the convergent value for the series described explicitly by a_n = 6n * (.25)^n (the formula for expected value of the 2 turn strat), because I don't know how. I only took an approximation for the first 3 terms because the subsequent terms were too small to make any significant difference.

I was actually looking at this exact problem a little while ago. I also couldn't think of a mathematical solution, so I used Excel to evaluate a variety of series(es?) for up to 50 terms. An interesting pattern emerged which Mercenary Raven either correcty guessed or impressively deduced in this topic.

Assuming a cost of 0 for resetting (beyond the replayed turns), if a strategy has a probability P of succeeding on turn N and a probability 1-P of failing on turn N and no chance of failing before turn N, it will have an expected turncount of: N / P.

If a strategy has a probability P of succeeding on turn N, N+1, N+2,... and no chance of failing, it will have an expected turncount of: N - 1 + 1 / P.

Marcia is able to survive them given an Angelic Robe and she's Level 20/1. She takes ~12 damage on average from two Tigers and ~15 from Muarim. That's assuming Jill doesn't already lure them away.

Uh, unless Marcia has Vantage and 3HKOs Muarim, she needs to survive 2 of Muarim's attacks. Even a 20/2 Marcia with both a Seraph Robe and Dracoshield will die to two Tiger attacks and two of Muarim's attacks (all of which have high hit). So you need to recruit Jill (either to use as a decoy or for her Laguzguard) for this reliable 2-turn strategy. Or you can go with the 3HKO Vantage route (where Marcia still needs a Seraph Robe and perhaps a Dracoshield), but this sacrifices 380 Bexp.

Now this is productive! Fleshing out more reliable 2-turn clears for C15.

Edited September 16, 2011 by aku chi

[Anouleth]

Should I assume, that because turns don't pass in the base, that in the future we will assume resets to get perfect BEXP level ups and perfect biorhythm? In that sense, the chance of failure of the strategy is even lower, since it takes zero turns to ensure that Marcia's skill is higher than her average and zero turns to ensure that she has perfect biorhythm.

[dondon151]

Should I assume, that because turns don't pass in the base, that in the future we will assume resets to get perfect BEXP level ups and perfect biorhythm? In that sense, the chance of failure of the strategy is even lower, since it takes zero turns to ensure that Marcia's skill is higher than her average and zero turns to ensure that she has perfect biorhythm.

Well, no, the point is that you do whatever you need to in the base before beginning the chapter, make a save, and on all subsequent attempts of that chapter (if they are necessary) you just mash start until the chapter begins because everything is already prepared beforehand.

[Anouleth]

Well, no, the point is that you do whatever you need to in the base before beginning the chapter, make a save, and on all subsequent attempts of that chapter (if they are necessary) you just mash start until the chapter begins because everything is already prepared beforehand.

I don't think I ever said anything about how easy or difficult resetting the game is. Rather, if the only cost of resetting is having to re-execute turns, then logically, one could reset infinitely for perfect level ups and biorhythm, since you don't have to re-execute any turns in order to do those things. As a result, the "expected value" of a chapter's turncount (which seems to be what Mercenary Raven is interested in minimising) could be reduced by manipulating level ups and biorhythm in your favour.

Edited September 16, 2011 by Anouleth

[dondon151]

I don't think I ever said anything about how easy or difficult resetting the game is. Rather, if the only cost of resetting is having to re-execute turns, then logically, one could reset infinitely for perfect level ups and biorhythm, since you don't have to re-execute any turns in order to do those things. As a result, the "expected value" of a chapter's turncount (which seems to be what Mercenary Raven is interested in minimising) could be reduced by manipulating level ups and biorhythm in your favour.

That is very clearly not what I'm implying, though. When you reset a chapter after a strategy fails, you don't have to do anything else in preparation before starting the chapter again. This is assuming that the original configuration is the one intended to work (and thus has nothing fundamentally wrong that requires review in chapter preparations) and it also removes from consideration the possibility of abusing BEXP or whatnot.

What I'm very clearly saying is that the procedure for beating a chapter is assumed to go like this:

1. Complete all base preparations

2. Save the game

3. Start the chapter

4. Reset the game

5. Start the chapter

And so on. Steps 1 and 2 are the same for all strategies, with the only difference between them being how many times on average one has to perform steps 4 and 5.

Resetting for biorhythm is not considered because the effects of biorhythm on average cancel each other out and it's not helpful to assume a certain state of enemy biorhythm for every chapter.

Edited September 16, 2011 by dondon151

[Anouleth]

That is very clearly not what I'm implying, though. When you reset a chapter after a strategy fails, you don't have to do anything else in preparation before starting the chapter again.

I get the impression we are talking at cross-purposes. For the third time, I am not saying that resetting the game after a failed attempt takes a lot of time. I am not saying you have to do anything in preparation before restarting a chapter. When have I said anything about failed attempts? Go read these posts. Please, go ahead. Tell me where I said it takes a lot of time to reset the game.

What I am saying is that if resetting the game is "free", then it has implications beyond restarting failed strategies. It means that you can also restart the game while in the base, while you are doing "whatever you need to in the base". And of course this is what you're implying. You implied that beyond re-executing turns, there is no cost to resetting, which is absolutely true. It takes very little time to reset the game and restart the chapter. In the same way, it takes very little time to reset the game and reapply BEXP, or to check Marcia's biorhythm. This is why rigging level ups with BEXP or battle save abuse is so popular: because it's fast.

Resetting for biorhythm is not considered because the effects of biorhythm on average cancel each other out and it's not helpful to assume a certain state of enemy biorhythm for every chapter.

I don't know, improving Marcia's chances to hit Muarim seems pretty useful to me. After all, that's what this whole argument has been about.

[dondon151]

I get the impression we are talking at cross-purposes. For the third time, I am not saying that resetting the game after a failed attempt takes a lot of time. I am not saying you have to do anything in preparation before restarting a chapter. When have I said anything about failed attempts? Go read these posts. Please, go ahead. Tell me where I said it takes a lot of time to reset the game.

That is not what I'm saying that you're saying, either.

What I am saying is that if resetting the game is "free", then it has implications beyond restarting failed strategies.

This is the problem. I assume that resetting the game in itself costs nothing because I also assume that in the circumstances when the player resets the game, the only thing that he will do is to immediately start the chapter again.

[Lord Raven]

Mercenary Raven either correcty guessed or impressively deduced

I wish I could say the latter but I just... can't :( I just kinda halfassedly came up with a figure that would provide an inverse relation between luck and turncount... and thus N / P was born.

Uh, unless Marcia has Vantage and 3HKOs Muarim, she needs to survive 2 of Muarim's attacks. Even a 20/2 Marcia with both a Seraph Robe and Dracoshield will die to two Tiger attacks and two of Muarim's attacks (all of which have high hit)

SR and DS Marcia will not die to two tiger hits with extra Muarim, especially if Jill is there to lure the other laguz out. Edited September 16, 2011 by Mercenary Raven

[aku chi]

SR and DS Marcia will not die to two tiger hits with extra Muarim, especially if Jill is there to lure the other laguz out.

...

On average, a 20/2 Marcia with Dracoshield and Seraph Robe has 16 Defense and 40 HP. Muarim has 29 Atk and the Tigers have 26 Atk. Marcia dies if both Tigers hit her and Muarim hits her twice. I don't know why I had to perform this math for you... To survive, Marcia either needs: (1) Jill to lure the Tigers away, (2) the laguzguard equipped, or (3) Vantage + Seraph Robe + Steel Lance forge (which sacrifices 380 Bexp).

[Lord Raven]

Oh you were talking about them hitting her twice. That won't happen in a 2 turn though.. in a 3 or 4 turn you can just use an Elixir o.o Forged Steel Marcia can just wait in front of Muarim, pop an Elixir (Chapter 3 Elixir, doesn't need to be used anywhere else), and then wait in front of the Tigers again. You don't need to attack on player phase.

Edited September 16, 2011 by Mercenary Raven

[aku chi]

Oh you were talking about them hitting her twice. That won't happen in a 2 turn though.. in a 3 or 4 turn you can just use an Elixir o.o Forged Steel Marcia can just wait in front of Muarim, pop an Elixir (Chapter 3 Elixir, doesn't need to be used anywhere else), and then wait in front of the Tigers again. You don't need to attack on player phase.

What you suggested was a way for Marcia to defeat Muarim on turn 2 enemy phase with a high accuracy weapon (forge) by attacking on player phase and finishing him off on enemy phase. In such a scenario, Muarim will attack Marcia twice: once on turn 2 player phase and once on turn 2 enemy phase (excepting the 3HKO Vantage scenario).

[GreatEclipse]

This is the problem. I assume that resetting the game in itself costs nothing because I also assume that in the circumstances when the player resets the game, the only thing that he will do is to immediately start the chapter again.

Why would you assume that the only reason someone would restart would be to retry a chapter, when restarting for things like level-ups can be just as beneficial to low-turning as ensuring you pull off something like a 2-turn strategy with a less than perfect success rate? In both cases, you are using the reset function to ensure something decided by the RNG works in your favor.

Edited September 16, 2011 by GreatEclipse

[-Cynthia-]

I think that strategies with less than 100% success rate should be considered, because 100% success rates are difficult to achieve on most maps (there is ausually at least a small chance of missing the boss or something). However, then it becomes defining what a "reasonable" chance of success for a particular strategy assumed to use is, and if that should be the only strategy considered or whether slower and more reliable strategies should also be considered.

Sorry for giving a rather vague answer, but even though I run the first post of this tier list I do not consider myself the ultimate arbiter in all matters unlike some people who run tier lists. Hopefully some sort of consensus can be reached.

[GreatEclipse]

Do not misunderstand me, I use plans with success rates well under 100% even when playing on a cart, I would just never assume them on something like a tier list with no account for individual play styles, nor would I assume myself a better player than someone else because I pulled off something really luck based and ended up with a lower turn count as a result. Much of the time, playing a chapter the reliable, inefficient way is both a bigger test of skill and tells you more about the units being used.

Edited September 16, 2011 by GreatEclipse

[Lord Raven]

What you suggested was a way for Marcia to defeat Muarim on turn 2 enemy phase with a high accuracy weapon (forge) by attacking on player phase and finishing him off on enemy phase. In such a scenario, Muarim will attack Marcia twice: once on turn 2 player phase and once on turn 2 enemy phase (excepting the 3HKO Vantage scenario).

I suggested that Jill be there to lure away Tigers on Turn 2 if we did a high-reliability 2-turn clear. If we're doing a not-as-high reliability 2-turn then we have a turn value of 2.67 with Marcia still being the crux of the strategy. Of course, we have actually diverged from the topic of the tier list, and if we want to discuss efficiency and chanciness then we may as well take it to the other thread.

Why would you assume that the only reason someone would restart would be to retry a chapter, when restarting for things like level-ups can be just as beneficial to low-turning as ensuring you pull off something like a 2-turn strategy with a less than perfect success rate? In both cases, you are using the reset function to ensure something decided by the RNG works in your favor.

Because restarting to proc level ups, especially a lot of the time, not only affects chances of completing the chapter massively but interferes with individual unit quality in the tier list. It brings in too many technicalities and the other portion is that it actually lowers my hypothetical "turn value" count because an extra 50% or 40% actually nearly doubles the "turn value" meaning... it's a less efficient clear.