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Mistakes or errors on the site 2


VincentASM
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https://serenesforest.net/2019/11/16/heroes-binding-blades-guardians-peace-new-heroes-trailer-drops-coming-november-19-brunnya-ghb/

In the front page for the Guardians of Peace trailer on the site. Perceval's name should be fixed as "Perceval" not "Percival" since that was used in Awakening and it was also shown in this trailer as well. You should fix for Brunnya is a reward for the Tempest Trial, not a Grand Hero Battle.

Edited by King Marth 64
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https://serenesforest.net/three-houses/weapons-and-items/black-dark-magic/

Meteor also damages enemies adjacent to the targeted unit.

EDIT: https://serenesforest.net/three-houses/miscellaneous/combat-arts/

Raging Storm, Atrocity, and Fallen Star all consume 4 durability.

EDIT 2: Beast Fang, Burning Quake, and Apocalyptic Flame also consume 4 durability.

EDIT 3: https://serenesforest.net/three-houses/characters/skill-levels/

Weekly study experience is lowered on harder difficulties.

Edited by Shadow Mir
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  • 3 weeks later...

Hi,

I hope I'm in the right spot.

I just wanted to say that for the Three Houses Greenhouse, 1 Western Fodlan Seeds + 4 Pale-Blue Flower Seeds gives you a yield of 3 with cultivation of Tier 4 or better. As it is, the best option this site has for getting Yield 3 for Pale-Blue Flowers (at the bottom of the Explanation page) is 1 Morfis Seeds + 2 Pale-Blue Flower Seeds.

The method with the Western Fodlan Seeds not only allows for more seeds and thus a greater harvest, but also a higher ratio of Pale-Blue Flower seeds, which I believe means a higher chance of the stat booster being a Speed Carrot as opposed to whatever stat booster the other seeds have.

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Hey, don’t know if this has been mentioned yet, but Death Knight (Jeritza) is playable in one of the Edelgard storylines (the one where you side with her over Rhea), so he isn’t DLC, as you have been listing him.

EDIT: if it’s on purpose, since he’s limited to one variation of one story, which has at least 2, potentially 4 different variations (only played 2 of the storylines so far, joining Edelgard, and Claude’s, and only finished Edelgard’s, so far)

Edited by Sitruk
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Hi guys! I wanted to report that on the page FE3H -> Miscellaneous -> Abilities the Tomebreaker ability should also have “Class mastered: grappler” in the origin column. I also wanted to leave an image of it, but couldn’t find a way to do that sorry. Also thank you all so much for the great work, it’s outstandingly useful!

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  • 3 weeks later...

I'd like to bring up an error that may seem small at first but might actually have a very profound effect on how people play Radiant Dawn.

In short, every character's "Average Stats" page is incorrect. I am referring to the page here:

https://serenesforest.net/radiant-dawn/characters/average-stats/

Essentially, the way that the average stats have been calculated is going to produce a significantly lower average stat than what a unit's actual average stat value will look like. Specifically, this is going to have the biggest impact on units that have lopsided growth rates/can cap a lot of their stats before reaching level 20. This would be the units that are typically seen as very BEXPable, such as Edward, Nephenee, and Soren, etc.

Radiant Dawn differs from a lot of other Fire Emblem games in the way that it calculates level ups for your units. In a game like Awakening or Fates, a character's growths are a what you see is what you get situation: If a unit's Spd growth is 50%, there is a 50% chance that that unit will level Spd and a 50% chance the unit won't level speed. In Awakening and Fates there's also a chance that a unit levels up and none of their stats increase. Bad luck. However, in Radiant Dawn, that's not possible (unless all of your stats are capped). If you get a level up with 0 stats increasing in Radiant Dawn, the game will re-roll your level ups until you get an increase in at least one stat. In other words, you're guaranteed at least one stat increase per level. 

For most of the time, this isn't a huge deal. The odds of getting 0 stat increases in a level up is often very low. However, once you start capping stats, this profoundly changes. I know that Edward is a pretty controversial unit, but I think he demonstrates this best, since he (a) has lopsided growths (b) will cap a lot of stats at every stage (c) has more levels to grow (more data) than Nephenee and Soren, who would probably be my other choices to demonstrate this with.

Edward's Growths are:

HP - 85%

Str - 60%

Mag - 5%

Skl - 65%

Spd - 60%

Lck - 50%

Def - 35%

Res - 20%

Additionally, his bases are:

HP - 19

Str - 7

Mag - 0

Skl - 11

Spd - 12

Lck - 8

Def - 5

Res - 0

As we see, Edward has really solid growths, but they are lopsided in favor of HP, Str, Skl, Spd, Lck, with low growths in Mag, Def, Res

For the first few levels, these growths should be pretty accurate. The chance that he gets a re-roll is going to be incredibly small: .15*.4*.95*.35*.4*.5*.65*.8 = .2%

That's nothing. And a lot of that has to do with the odds of him not leveling up HP or Str or Skl or Spd being so low that it really tanks the percentage of a re-roll. However, Eddy starts to cap a lot of his stats around level 17, namely HP, Skl, and Spd. (He has a 30 cap on HP, 20 for Skl, 20 for Spd). Now let's look at the re-roll percentage with those stats capped: .4*.95*.5*.65*.8 = 9.88%. 

Wow, that's a big difference! But what does it mean for his stats? Well, now since the game isn't rolling for HP, Skl, and Spd level ups, there's a higher chance of a re-roll and his growth rates will get a boost. Specifically, that 60% Str growth rate is now (.6)/(1-.0988) = 66.6%. That's a nice boost, though maybe not game changing. What about when Eddy is a Swordmaster? As a Swordmaster he's very likely to cap HP, Str, Skl, and Spd around level 15. With strength capped too, his re-roll chance goes up to: .95*.5*.65*.8 =24.7% 

Whoa. That could actually have a pretty substantial impact on his growth rates, and because he's capping those four stats by level 15, that's a full 5 level ups he gets with these inflated stats. Let's look at defense: .35/(1-.247) = 46.5%. Over the course of the game, he'll have nearly 15 levels with significantly increased base stats like this, and another 5-10 with at least one stat capped.

And this is all even further amplified as a tier 3 unit where he is going to cap Lck very early on as well. I think the limits of the "Average Stats" page can really be seen if you look at Eddy's final few levels. According to this page, he would have ~3 levels with every stat capped except for Mag and Res. The re-roll percentage for these levels is: .95*.8 = 76%!!!! His actual Res growth is going to be 83.3% for these last few levels and the chart just does not reflect this at all. Let me repeat, he is GUARANTEED either a Mag level up or a Res Level up (or both!) and the chart still says that his Res will only improve by .6 over these levels.

So, what went wrong with these Average Stats pages? Well the person who made these charts used expected value. Essentially, because Eddy has a .2 res growth rate and 0 base, they started at 0 and gave him .2 to his "Average Stats" for every level until the end of the game. Add his promotion bonuses from Myrmidon-->Swordmaster-->Trueblade and you get 16.8. But the person who made this chart either didn't realize that you get a guaranteed +1 to at least one stat in this game or did not think that it would have major ramifications. And to be fair, it's such a simple change that on the surface it doesn't seem like it matters much. But provided your unit is also capping a lot of stats, it makes a major difference. Actually, in Three Houses all of the students are guaranteed at least 2 stats per level, and all of the faculty is guaranteed at least one stat per level. The difference there is that the vast majority of players playing three houses aren't going to get close to capping any stats because the caps are so ridiculously high. Like we saw with the initial reroll percentage, with no stats capped Eddy only had a .2% chance of a re-roll. It's a very marginal difference to your stats in the long run in Three Houses, if anything. 

There are a lot of things that tipped me off to this discovery. First, there are a ton of people on Youtube and on Forums who will say "I used Edward/Nephenee/Soren and they were really great, but I think I just got insanely RNG blessed because I looked at their average stats and mine was way better than that." Then they proceed to say that those units are mediocre. But I've used all of those units a number of times too, and every single time they end up amazing for me too. How can we all have he same universal experience with these units and then discredit that experience as anecdotal? Can I bring Edward to the endgame on six separate occasions (yes, on maniac too) and get him to 20/20/20 with capped everything and still believe that his average Res is supposed to be 17? (To be honest he has ended with point shy of the res cap on two of my playthroughs). I was actually about to run a binomial test to see if his "true" res growth, aka what the growth would look like after taking into account all of the reroll buffs, differed significantly from 20%. This is a lot more difficult in practice than in theory though - I'm not sure it's worth the effort. There are a couple of other things about Radiant Dawn that tipped me off to look into this. First, there's BEXP, which works much differently than how it does in Path of Radiance. In Radiant Dawn, you gain a guaranteed 3 stat ups (never more, never less) per level gained with BEXP. This is a mechanic that is more well known, and people have dubbed a few units in particular, namely the three I keep mentioning, Edward, Nephenee, and Soren, as "very BEXPable" units. Essentially, they hit a lot of their caps quite quickly and so it becomes beneficial to those units to give them BEXP levels to raise their stats further. I thought that if a guaranteed three stats could help these units I should look into how a guaranteed one stat per level up could help them. Finally, there's also the Blossom skill. A lot of people don't seem to understand how this works. In exchange of cutting your exp gain in half, your unit is guaranteed at least two stats to level up. A lot of the discussion around this skill is that it's useless, and I'd say that the way people use the skill, it is practically useless. You get the skill in 3-3, which is too early in the Greil Mercenary chapters for anyone to really have capped many stats. 90% of the people I've watched play the game read the incredibly vague description "increased level up stats in exchange for half HP" slap the skill on Ike with no capped stats, and then watch the skill do nothing for a chapter before they remove the skill and send it to the convoy for the rest of the game. But Blossom exists for a reason right? The developers must have thought that somebody could benefit from the skill. And they are right - it would definitely benefit this group of BEXPable units once they capped their stats. All of these crumbs of evidence pointed me to looking into this topic so deeply.

So now that we know that the Average Stats chart is wrong, how do we fix it? I first want to iterate that you absolutely CANNOT use Expected Value and find an accurate result here. I think there would probably be some temptation to look at the current chart, look when a unit caps a stat, re-evaluate their boosted growths after that cap, and continue to do this. But that's not going to get you a very accurate estimate at all. Say you had a unit that was super blessed in one stat - they cap it early and then every stat gets a boost earlier than they are supposed to and then those stats cap early, giving you another boost to your growths, etc. That's going to mean the average stats are actually going to be way higher because getting RNG blessed is going to drive the growth rates much higher and getting RNG screwed won't drop your growth rates. To get an accurate picture of what a units actual average stats are, you would have to run a simulation (in R or something) that takes re-rolling and stat caps into consideration. If you run that simulation ~10,000 times you will be able to create a sampling distribution for each of a unit's stats, and then determine the average.

I know Radiant Dawn isn't the most popular game in the series and that overhauling the average stats page entirely would be a massive effort for a relatively small audience. But even if nothing changes on the site, I hope it at least comes across how much I love Radiant Dawn and how interesting some of its systems are just beneath its surface. If you've read all of this, I hope you've found it interesting.

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  • 2 weeks later...
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https://serenesforest.net/awakening/characters/base-stats/main-story/

Chrom is listed as having 6 movement when unpromoted infantry units have 5.

EDIT:

https://serenesforest.net/three-houses/characters/skill-levels/

IIRC, it takes 440 skill experience to get from A to A+, 760 to go from A+ to S, and 1060 to go from S to S+.

Edited by Shadow Mir
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Hello, a small error on the Three Houses Greenhouse charts. In the Items-By-Group it says Zanado Fruit is under Boa-Fruit seeds, while also missing Albinean-seeds from the list. I do not know which is correct, the Items-By-Yield or by group, but the information does not match up. Probably a simple error.

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For SoV, forging costs are inconsistent with regards to whether or not they are cumulative totals or per-level.

https://serenesforest.net/fire-emblem-echoes-shadows-valentia/miscellaneous/forging/

It is indicated that they are cumulative, which is how they are represented in-game, but it's obvious that this is not consistent - e.g. the Seven Sword costs 30 silver for level one, and 0 silver/1 Gold for level two.

Actually, after looking more carefully, all of the data is listed consistently as individual costs, and kind of marked as such, but the language of 'cumulative/not cumulative' is confusing if you ask me - especially considering that the in-game menu lists totals rather than individual costs (i.e. the other way). I would prefer if it used more clear language to indicate the way the data is represented, just my $.02.

Edited by AyraXLex
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On 1/5/2020 at 5:34 AM, Sitruk said:

Hey, don’t know if this has been mentioned yet, but Death Knight (Jeritza) is playable in one of the Edelgard storylines (the one where you side with her over Rhea), so he isn’t DLC, as you have been listing him.

EDIT: if it’s on purpose, since he’s limited to one variation of one story, which has at least 2, potentially 4 different variations (only played 2 of the storylines so far, joining Edelgard, and Claude’s, and only finished Edelgard’s, so far)

He was added as free DLC, wasn't available at launch before an update.

On 1/25/2020 at 1:38 PM, Leif Faris Claus said:

All of the names for characters, weapons, and items in the Thracia 776 guides should probably be updated to more recent FEH or Project Exile localizations.

Geneaology should be updated with Project Naga's names as well, at least most of them. 'Lewyn' and 'Raquesis' can die in a hole

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https://serenesforest.net/thracia-776/miscellaneous/calculations/

Mounted Units losing move from rescuing has nothing to do with their actual con, Mounted units effectively have 20 Con for all rescue/capture calculations. A mounted unit carrying an 11 con or heavier unit will receive a move penalty, while those carrying 10 con or lighter units will not, regardless of their own con.

Also, units with Fatigue equal to their max HP can participate in the following map

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  • 4 weeks later...
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On 3/14/2020 at 10:35 PM, AyraXLex said:

Geneaology should be updated with Project Naga's names as well, at least most of them. 'Lewyn' and 'Raquesis' can die in a hole

I know this is an older post but I have to say that I highly suggest not doing this as the cast have of course had all their names officially translated through Heroes CYL. In addition, some of the names from Project Naga were a bit screwed up translation (ex. Chulainn was Holyn, Noise was Noish, Brigid was Bridget...).

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On 4/27/2020 at 8:11 PM, CatManThree said:

I know this is an older post but I have to say that I highly suggest not doing this as the cast have of course had all their names officially translated through Heroes CYL. In addition, some of the names from Project Naga were a bit screwed up translation (ex. Chulainn was Holyn, Noise was Noish, Brigid was Bridget...).

Fair point, but the site currently has Twiliktri's(?) old names, rather than the official ones. My preference would be to list both the official names and the Project Naga ones.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Fire emblem 1 shop list page has the wrong items available for chapter 4.  I am arena abusing currently and it is clearly iron sword, bow, hammer, axe, steel axe, hand axe. (Weapon names depend on translation used...)

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