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Qprogue Mafia - Game Over


Prims
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BBM's refusal to even consider the slightest possibility of me!town is worth note. I'll be interested to see how tomorrow pans out

Poly's "HURRY UP AND JUST LYNCH ELIE I'M SO TIRED OF THIS GAME" and sudden vanish is suck. He's still voting Mancer even though right here he said that he's rather lynch me than eclipse (why is this mancer vote still even a thing?)

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Shin

http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=49706&view=findpost&p=3336898 <- Town!Shin, because he isn't just sheeping the Rapier 'slip' mindlessly, but spending time analyzing it and rapier's reactions from it

http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=49706&view=findpost&p=3340129 <- I feel like Shin's voting me for disagreeing with my interpretation of kirsche's current playstyle, rather than thinking I outright suspect kirsche. I don't feel like his vote on me is justified, but between his three scumreads, i think it makes the most sense.

I dunno i'm townreading Shin (well, leaning town). So brit

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eclipse

I really don't like her early game; cryptic cases left town to meander about and point fingers without clear interpretation. Seems like a way to feign contribution without actually contributing (Read: X did the scummiest scumslip ever, but I'll explain why tomorrow), when her case was essentially four words long. Compare To Your RolePM

Her OMGUS on Belisarius is well, questionable, because she could have easily applied pressure while voting for a less controversial scumread (which she apparently has several of). I don't see scum!eclipse actually doing that though, as you have to be DAMN confident to omgus as scum and walk away scot-free. possibly buddy bussing, but I dunno, I don't see it being a scum!eclipse->town!beli thing.

Her Randa+Nekoneko read is fine though; she's assessing both players as individuals, and comparing them to a single slot's worth of behavior. Though to me, the poor consistency between the two inspires a townread (as I'd think scum-hydras would be more coordinated in thought processes).

Slight scumread...and by slight i mean slight.

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Marth:

http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=49706&view=findpost&p=3336388 <- Don't like this because up until then, he'd done nothing. He should've analyzed the voters on Rapier rather than complaining that nothing's happening, because he evidently had time to interpret the case and is arguing himself as not being lazy

ITS TIME BUT GIVE ME ONE MORE MINUTE

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- Elie's Null leaning scum for me because I read his reaction to the Rapier thing as town but he's scummy for reasons BBM gave earlier. Also wtf at his scum spectrum where I'm scumread when he never said anything about me earlier. I'd rather lynch my other scumreads over him but I'll lynch him aNYWAY if its necessary

Guys please analyze this. He's sheeping BBM to vote for me, because I sheeped someone else's reasons to suspect him. Pot, I'm Kettle. Didn't know we were enemies. This is the kind of thing that makes us enemies though.

http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=49706&view=findpost&p=3342653 <-

Lazy case on Rapier. He's had 72 hours (almost) to come up with a case on rapier, and he thinks "Refa's buddying is bad" when it's only D1 and there's no reason to only point scum fingers at people. This reads as a desperation clarification to me, and it doesn't really hold its weight in water.

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~ Night 1 ~

Sara. (8) - BBM, Shin, Refa, Rapier, Randa & NekoRex, MancerNecro, Bluedoom (LYNCH!)

Bluedoom (3) - Sara., Belisarius, kirsche

BBM (1) - Quote

Belisarius (1) - eclipse

MancerNecro (1) - Burakkuhoku

Not Voting (1): Xinnidy

"get that grancrest shit outta here this is a fire emblem forum" somebody said. I still don't really know what Grancrest is but it's not like it's ever going to be relevant outside of Japan. Anyway Elieson got lynched.

JJ5ENfs.jpg

Sara. - into the battlefield - Town Element Swapper - lynched Day 1

It is now Night 1. You have 24 hours to send in your night actions. Town's classes for tonight and tomorrow are Archer and Fighter, enabling fire and wind-elemental abilities.

Alive: (13)

- BBM

- Belisarius

- Bluedoom

- Burakkuhoku (Polydeuces)

- eclipse

- kirsche

- MancerNecro

- NekoRex & Randa

- Quote (Viata)

- Rapier

- Refa

- Shin

- Xinnidy

Not Alive: (1)

- Sara. (Elieson) - into the battlefield, Town Element Swapper, lynched Day 1

Useful Links:

- None!

Edited by Prims
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i wish i could say im surprised he flipped town. im not.

also what the hell do you call that beli? will elaborate in a bit.

also also, sorry i wasnt around at deadline kinda at a game.

also also also, i feel as if this kinda makes BBM look a bit townier, as scum would realize that pushing a single case for that long only to have the case flip town is a horrible idea.

also also also also, i have nothing else to say right now.

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so we all know beli hasn't existed all game, so my hope at least was that he was following the game, and getting reads of significance. I kinda wanna cry inside.

Elie - Addressing all the questions and I'm not sure that he would come off this frustrated if he were mafia. Giving up doesn't help the town, but he's already said a lot (and made a reactive Marth vote which is a help) so I'm neutral on that. He could be apathy faking to draw votes away but his tone seems sincere. Not sure what to think of his kirsche vote being based on vote commitment. Wouldn't lynch right now.

Marth - I don't like Marths kirsche vote either, it was definitely weird but it was early in the game (and he made a lot of reads early on) so I can't place the intent behind it. What I did get from him was a forced reaction to my eclipse vote after a bunch of people had already said it was bad. His Mancer obvtown claim comes off as trying to gain early rapport and his Randa/Rex vote was almost completely associated with the Mancer read.

##Vote Marth

Problems.

1. Why is 3 hours away from deadline, when you decide to address the wagon(s).

2. Why marth? I believe marth is scummy, however at the time of your vote he had one vote on him, it seems like you just wanted to lynch not eli. but why then did you pick marth?

3. both of your reads are pretty surface level. i really dont see the effort to actually find intent in people's post.

I am available to hammer if needed.

Mancer it would be great if you cooled your spamming habits.

you and mancer should hydra then we'd have two confusing hydras.

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wow, ya know i kinda just realized how utterly useless insomniac is. like i cant even get responses from people. why couldn't you have just made me a vig or SK those seem more fun.

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So I'm trying to ISO people in this hell of Too Many Posts, and I have low motivation to do it, but I'm trying anyway.

I started with Rapier I guess.
I've gotten to after the whole scumslip thing, and the only thing I really don't like is that he fails to come up with a scumread despite all the reactions to his wagon he should have, which from my perspective is strange since I can usually pick out a couple people I think have scummy votes on me even in hard defense.

I don't really like how he completely lets ecplipse go after all that either

I'm surprised that you let go of my case like that.

He's even surprised but he doesn't analyze it nor does he seem to have a read on eclipse.
When he finally does read Eclipse, he sides with Eclipse esp between me and her, which I guess to me doesn't make sense to me since it felt like he didn't really read my case but I dunno.
Despite that he doesn't really find me scummy either, which I guess just confuses me more since every post on me has a different read (this is more noticable then the other reads he has) but never seems to lean too far in any direction with it.

Anyway yeah finishing that I don't really know how to read him. He has a few oddities with his posts but nothing explicitly scummy enough to throw a case at. I don't even see the tone thing I mentioned before (albeit that doesn't mean much).

The only problem is that he doesn't really have a lot of concrete scumreads on people it seems like, even though he really should, and he kind of just focuses on Elie eventually like everyone else does and jumps to that. He notes lots of problems with Refa tunneling him but fails to do much about it. I guess maybe he could be scum because of this? It would be worth a vote at least.

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Marth has a lot more metareads then I would like, but otherwise I don't really see to many problems with him? He doesn't have a lot of posts (iirc this is normal) but he seems to be consistent in his reads and had solid ones, which is better then my last ISO.

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I'm reading quote, don't feel good about him since most of his reads are just based on gut or meta, but from what I can tell he suffers from time constraints as well, so it's probably best to see if he has anything good tomorrow.

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