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2017 NFL Playoffs - Super Bowl LI Confirmed! Atlanta Falcons vs New England Patriots!


Lord Raven
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I know you weren't, I'm countering your argument that a "bend, don't break" defense works when it really doesn't most of the time.

Do you realize how crappy our secondary has been? Ross Cockrell is the only really good player on it as far as I've seen. Mike Mitchell can tackle, that's about it. William Gay can be a ball hog, but not often enough. Robert Golden...uh...I can't think of anything he does well, though he's had a pick or two, woop-dee-doo. And don't get me started on how badly they've dealt with TEs, which the Patriots definitely don't lack. I'm surprised Brady didn't throw 500 yards on us.

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I know you weren't, I'm countering your argument that a "bend, don't break" defense works when it really doesn't most of the time.

What do you mean by "bend don't break" defense? You mean playing off coverage? Cover 3?

Because Seattle have run a Cover 3 - which has similar concepts to "bend don't break" - since Pete Carroll came to town, and they've been highly successful with it.

If you're referring to a late-game prevent defense, it actually works way more often than it doesn't. You just hear more about it when it doesn't.

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What do you mean by "bend don't break" defense? You mean playing off coverage? Cover 3?

Because Seattle have run a Cover 3 - which has similar concepts to "bend don't break" - since Pete Carroll came to town, and they've been highly successful with it.

If you're referring to a late-game prevent defense, it actually works way more often than it doesn't. You just hear more about it when it doesn't.

The Bills also ran a 4-3 Cover 2 defense a few years ago on a BDB philosophy and ended up getting the most sacks in the league (technically it was a Cover 2 but you'd see a LB drop back far into intermediate coverage every now and then).

BDB defenses only work when you know that you can pin the opposing offense deep and have about 40 yards or so to work with. It's not that it's ineffective but it relies on an offense that can at least get to midfield on any given series.

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Picks for next week:

Jaguars @ Titans- Ah, the annual primetime game no one else really wants to watch. Jags/Titans games are usually tough to pick because they split the series frequently (every year since 2009). Going with the home team.

Redskins @ Bengals (London) The Bengals have pretty much lost to the good teams and beaten the bad teams this year- I think they're better with Eifert back in the lineup though.

Chiefs @ Colts- Chiefs have been pretty solid after their bye and the Colts defense is still a mess.

Cardinals @ Panthers- The Panthers may have the worst secondary in the league. Hard to pick them to win many games until they prove otherwise/

Raiders @ Bucs- Raiders have been good on the road so far this year. The Bucs are actually back to .500 somehow, but I'm not sold on them.

Seahawks @ Saints- Seahawks offense should look much better than they did last week against this Saints defense.

Lions @ Texans- Lions are a pretty unpredictable team, but the Texans have been solid at home this year so I'll go with that.

Patriots @ Bills- Hard to pick against the Patriots right now- and getting swept by the Bills just seems unlikely.

Jets @ Browns- Almost tempted to pick the Browns here- they have to win eventually right? But...nah.

Chargers @ Broncos- The Chargers are actually pretty good, but like the Patriots/Bills game it's hard to see them managing to sweep the Broncos.

Packers @ Falcons- I think the Falcons will have a lot of success against the Packers secondary- Rodgers is going to have to be on the top of his game.

Eagles @ Cowboys- NFC East games are always tough to pick, but I think the Eagles defense will be able to rattle Dak Prescott here.

Vikings @ Bears- Why are the Bears in primetime again? Vikings defense should dominate this one.

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The Bills also ran a 4-3 Cover 2 defense a few years ago on a BDB philosophy and ended up getting the most sacks in the league (technically it was a Cover 2 but you'd see a LB drop back far into intermediate coverage every now and then).

BDB defenses only work when you know that you can pin the opposing offense deep and have about 40 yards or so to work with. It's not that it's ineffective but it relies on an offense that can at least get to midfield on any given series.

It also needs a good pass rush, which is why the Seahawks didn't make it very deep in 2012 because their pass rush was pretty middling.

Seahawks also give up a few big plays per game, but their record speaks for itself. A mediocre implementation of this philosophy leads to field goals on most drives with a tight red zone defense, whereas a good implementation is generating turnovers like crazy. Some teams with crazy offenses utilized this system (2009 Saints) to compensate for being relatively weak on the defensive front (their pass rush wasn't anything special though but their secondary was opportunistic and aggressive). It all depends on how the team is structured. Steelers offense has been good but not super crazy since 2013-2014, and their pass rush/secondary is kinda busted, so they're sitting on their hands with their defense.

It's a pretty nuanced thing. Just because it doesn't work with the Steelers and kinda fucked over some Ravens games in 2013-2015 doesn't mean it's an inherently bad system, it's that the teams don't really have the personnel to risk playing super aggressive. Our pass rush in 2014 was really aggressive but it didn't stop Tom Brady from getting rid of the ball in around a second, and we had to play BDB because our corners outside of Jimmy Smith (who tore his achilles) was shit.

Edited by Lord Raven
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Yeah, forgot to mention pass rush. Bills were getting penetration that season with only 4 in pretty much every game.

​Aside from that, you covered everything I missed. I personally don't like the BDB philosophy but it's a personal opinion (I love corner and safety blitzes and BDB doesn't allow for it). As you said, it's based a lot on personel in the defense and offense but a good implementation will be very effective for keeping games tight at the very least.

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What do you mean by "bend don't break" defense? You mean playing off coverage? Cover 3?

It's a bit hard to explain, but I'll do my best. Take a look at Steelers vs Bengals from earlier this season. Notice how Dalton only put up around 16 points even though he threw for like 375 yards? It's basically that our defense let them get as many yards as they want so long as they didn't come away with any points. That's "bend, don't break."

It worked against the Steelers for the Pats the other day because of how depleted we've become.

But good news! Ladarius Green is finally in practice! If Ben comes back after the bye, Ravens probably gonna get stomped hard! Tomlin, Haley, and Butler have no excuse to overlook them simply because of their record, they're a DIVISION RIVAL. I'd love to see Shazier pick on Flacco all day, man. I mean that literally too, get some interceptions, boi.

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No, that's what I understand of "bend don't break" but that's not really answering my question. Did you read any of the posts before this about how the system works and the Steelers don't have the personnel or what?

The question I was asking was more "how are they achieving this bend don't break defense" at any rate. Are they playing off-coverage? Are they using Cover-3? The question is asking for details you didn't provide.

Edited by Lord Raven
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Then I misunderstood the question, my bad.

I think what you're looking for is that the Steelers' D often just has four guys rushing the QB while everyone else drops back. I don't know if that qualifies as cover 3 or not though, as I don't know every single detail. But it's been hard to pass rush well without Cam Heyward in that lineup. I hope he comes back soon too.

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I mean I haven't watched many games this season, so I can't tell you either ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ but the point of all this was that bend don't break works, it's just kind of a drag to watch sometimes.

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I see. Maybe we don't have all the correct personnel. I know our defense does still have holes to fill... Sigh. I think it'll get there though, Keith Butler has potential to be a pretty good DC, I think, and the young guys just need to develop. Probably could use a change at defensive back coach though...

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FYI the 2014-2015 playoff game between the Ravens and the Steelers is the most brilliant implementation of that defense that led to a win.

Giants also did this to the Bills in one of the early 90s Super Bowls. Belichick's gameplan for that game is in the hall of fame.

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Then I misunderstood the question, my bad.

I think what you're looking for is that the Steelers' D often just has four guys rushing the QB while everyone else drops back. I don't know if that qualifies as cover 3 or not though, as I don't know every single detail. But it's been hard to pass rush well without Cam Heyward in that lineup. I hope he comes back soon too.

So I'll explain the concept of C3 (Raven, correct me if I make a mistake).

Cover 3 is a zone based defense where there are 3 defensive backs playing around 10~15 yards back of the LoS. You can have a cornerback who drops into zone coverage, a nickelback or an extra safety (I guess ILBs can also do this too in theory but it sounds silly) is how that is done and usually there are two LBs lining up as a result (if it is a CB dropping, you can still field 3).

It's a zone defense that works well when the intermediate/long pass game is on fire but the underneath routes usually open up as a result. A good QB can usually run to his checkdown route which is a great option.

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Hm, yeah, that does sound like what the Steelers D tries a lot. I see complaints from fans on Facebook all the time, that the DBs keep "playing fifteen yards off the receiver" and such. And more often than not, I see the DBs get beat underneath as a result, as the receiver catches it in the middle and runs off a lot because nobody's nearby, which is because nobody bothers to cover the middle half the time.

Ross Cockrell's the only one I ever see stopping deep balls and stuff on this squad, yet he pays the price half the time because half the time he makes bonehead penalities. If he can just stop that, he'd be a great CB. I like this dude, I honestly do. He held AJ Green to just 26 yards or something like that! If he can do that, he can be a top CB.

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Holding AJ Green to 26 yards may sound impressive but he it is not indicative of how good the CB is in general. You need to look at the whole game in context.

Where were the Bengals starting with the ball. What was the situation with the pass rush? Was there a better match-up on the field? Was the run game working?

Ana, you take too much stock in numbers without looking at the context.

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That's pretty much why I said he CAN be, not he will be. You're right, there are other things to take into context and it's not automatically indicative of how good the CB is, as Darrelle Revis is supposed to be a good CB, but he got burned to heck by AJ Green.

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Time to burn more money.

chococoke's week 8 spread picks

Last week: 2-1

Pats gave me a scare here before they pulled away late and covered the spread easily. The Jaguars were poopy, as expected, and I didn't pull off the sweep because the Falcons sucked.

Overall: 3-3

Hmm, well it looks like I'm actually even so far (and actually up $3.50) I'll pick 4 games this week in order to make some solid dough.

Jaguars @ Titans (-3)

Again, I don't think the Jags are very good. For whatever reason, they never seem to be able to get everything to click.

Patriots (-6) @ Bills

Bills are trash and they'll play a trash game.

Okay, seriously though, the Bills seem primed for a let down. I feel like Rex won't be able to control the team with a possible season sweep of New England on the line. The Patriots have too many weapons on offense and the offensive line is improved from last year (when the Pats put up 40 in Buffalo.) I'll bet my boys for the third straight week.

Cardinals (+3) @ Panthers

Honestly, the Panthers looks pretty bad right now. Their secondary is very questionable. Arizona's offense has been lagging pretty badly this season, but this could be a spot for them to get right. I also think Arizona's defense matches up well against Carolina's O.

Vikings (-5) @ Bears

Chicago blows. Hard. The Vikings' major weakness at O-line would actually matter if the Bears had some level of talent on defense. They do not, and I also believe whoever plays QB for them will be under siege all night. I'll take the Vikes in a blowout

Edited by chococoke
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Patriots (-6) @ Bills

Bills are trash and they'll play a trash game.

The epitome of being a Bills fan.

I honestly can't find an way to say that this sentence is objectively false in any way.

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I forgot to mention, Rex Ryan and the Bills training staff should be ashamed for letting LeSean attempt to play last week against Miami. I mean, come the fuck on. You've got a guy nursing a bum hamstring; not only that, but he has a long list of soft tissue injuries dating back to his days with the Eagles. And you're playing fucking MIAMI.

Now he's not gonna play against the Patriots, who he's had success against in the past. Just embarrassing.

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DeAngelo Williams wins a million internets for his Halloween costume, folks! It's a $3000 Predator costume and it looks absolutely insane. Insane as in whoa amazing. You da man, De-Lo! ^^

On another note, Ben's been taking reps and such and might play against the Ravens! I hope he does. I'm tired of the Ravens beating us lately, the Steelers need to sweep them hard.

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Picks time:

Falcons @ Bucs- The Bucs gave up over 500 yards to the Raiders- I think Matt Ryan can have a field day here.

Lions @ Vikings- Things aren't looking good for the Vikings the past two games, but the Lions defense is beat up enough they maybe won't overwhelm the Vikings O-line.

Eagles @ Giants- Could go either way, but the Eagles usually seem to do well against the Giants.

Jets @ Dolphins- Dolphins had two pretty good games before the bye- some people speculate that this is because of having a healthier O-line. The Jets have been winning, but still look pretty rough.

Jaguars @ Chiefs- Only reason I can think to pick the Jags here is that Nick Foles is starting for the Chiefs, but the Jags have looked like a wreck the past two games.

Cowboys @ Browns- How often does a team on a six game winning streak play one on an eight game losing streak?

Steelers @ Ravens- Tough game to pick. Both these teams haven't looked good lately and even when the Ravens are off they can upset the Steelers. It's still up in the air for the Steelers whether it'll be Ben or Landry Jones, so I'll go Ravens I guess.

Saints @ Niners- The Niners are giving up 30-40 points a game while having one of the worst offenses in the league.

Panthers @ Rams- Are the Panthers back? Hard to say, but the Rams still have a limited enough offense that I don't feel comfortable picking them.

Colts @ Packers- Rodgers was back in form last week- granted against a bad Falcons defense but the Colts defense might be even worse.

Titans @ Chargers- I think the Chargers are the stronger team overall, though they are somewhat inconsistent.

Broncos @ Raiders- Raiders are 6-2, but aside from the Jags game have all been one score wins over mediocre teams. I think the Broncos D will expose them a bit like the Chiefs did.

Bills @ Seahawks- Seahawks at home are hard to pick against. Their D should be able to dominate this game with the Bills main weapons (Watkins, McCoy) out.

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BEN'S GONNA START. :D

Just be careful! Don't put too much strain on that knee. And the o-line needs to protect him! Especially from Suggs. They HAVE to keep that dirty man away from him. I haven't forgotten that low hit to the back of LeGarrette Blount's legs the one season before Blount was cut from the team. The guy was lucky that his ACL wasn't torn there.

EDIT: Looks like Cam Heyward and De-Lo are back too! I don't see them on the inactive list for the Steelers. W00t. Too bad Markus Wheaton still has to sit though. But they can win without him!

Edited by Anacybele
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