Fire Emblem Fates children's stat calculation

[nocturnal YL]

The childrens’ actual base stats = [(mother’s current stats – mother’s class base stats) + (father’s current stats – father’s class base stats) + child’s absolute base stats] / 3 + child’s class base stats

The later you recruit a child, the higher their Level and stats. If their initial Level is higher than 10, add the corresponding number of Level Ups using the child’s growth rates in their current class to estimate their stats.

(Emphasis mine)

I found this doubtful. I just messed around with my marriage options, and got Suzukaze and Aqua married. Those two (especially Aqua) are known for their insane speeds, so there's no way Midoriko would get 12 speed.

Context: Nohr Lunatic Classic, After beating Chapter 13.

Here are what I have:

Susukaze (Kaze) / Shinobi Lv 13
                 HP  Str  Mag  Skl  Spd  Luk  Def  Res
      Total      24   11    0   15   20    7    8   14
      Class      16    3    0    8    8    1    3    3
   Personal       8    8    0    7   12    6    5   11

Aqua (Azura) / Singer Lv 21
                 HP  Str  Mag  Skl  Spd  Luk  Def  Res
      Total      22   17    6   27   27   18   11   17
      Class      16    3    0    6    5    3    2    3 
   Personal       6   14    6   21   22   15    9   14

Midoriko (predicted) / Herb Merchant
                 HP  Str  Mag  Skl  Spd  Luk  Def  Res
               22/3 28/3  8/3 38/3 38/3 31/3 18/3 17/3
Personal Lv 10    7    9    2   12   12   10    6    5
Gain (4 Levels)   1    1    0    2    2    1    0    1   (rounded down)
Personal Lv 14    8   10    2   14   14   11    6    6
      Class      18    6    0    4    4    2    6    2
      Total      26   16    2   18   18   13   12    8

Midoriko (actual) / Herb Merchant Lv 14
​                 HP  Str  Mag  Skl  Spd  Luk  Def  Res
      Total      28   15    3   19   12   14   12    7
      Class      18    6    0    4    4    2    6    2
   Personal      10    9    3   15    8   12    6    5


(Assumed growth rates)
​                 HP  Str  Mag  Skl  Spd  Luk  Def  Res

Aqua             25   50   25   60   60   40   15   35
Suzukaze         55   40    0   45   65   20   20   35
Midoriko         45   35    5   55   35   50   30   20

Combined         40   41   10   53   53   36   21   30

If the actual stat is 1 above the expected, it could have been because roundings are treated differently. But even with that in mind, Midoriko's HP is still higher than expected, and her Str, Spd and Res are lower than expected. Speed in particular is very jarring. So is it possible that the calculations are different this time?

[astrophys]

Arya and XexR have noticed similar problems, and I've done calculations with the numbers they gave me and I agree that things aren't working out as expected.

[Sky Soldier]

Well, here are some things we can deduce:

Midoriko definitely does not start out with only her base stats at lv. 10. That would give her

26 12 2 14 8 12 10 4

Even if she were randomly levelled up to lv. 14, instead of fixed growth-ed up, it would be impossible for her to have 19 skill. Also, if she just started at the class base at lv. 1, it would again be impossible for her to have 19 skill. So, the parents definitely are adding something.

What's telling appears to be the large gap between skill and speed. Both Kaze and Aqua have higher speed than skill contributions, so to have that large of a gap, her personal bases or growths must have a much larger influence on her stats than the Awakening formula.

Question: Did you recruit Shigure so that we can compare his base stats to Midoriko?

Edited July 13, 2015 by Sky Soldier

[nocturnal YL]

I didn't recruit Shigure. Since he doesn't join in the chapter itself, this is going to take me quite a bit of effort. I also "unmarried" those two (suspend, exit, remove interim save).

I still have my Chapter 14 data around, so maybe I can try that just for this experiment. Shigure's chapter is a seemingly very easy "defeat boss" map, so no loss if I lose that progress.

(I still want Suzukaze with Aqua, but I'm running out of character slots and at this point, playing the sidequests late would result in more desirable high-level children.)

EDIT: done!

I said it's easy, but I didn't mean "Berka can 1-turn KO the boss" easy. Great, that makes things much easier for me.

Shigure (predicted) / Pegasus Warrior
                 HP  Str  Mag  Skl  Spd  Luk  Def  Res
Aqua Personal     8    8    0    7   12    6    5   11
Suzukaze Personal 6   14    6   21   22   15    9   14
Shigure Raw       9    6    1    7    7    5    8    7
------------------------------------------------------
               23/3 28/3  7/3 35/3 41/3 26/3 22/3 32/3
Personal Lv 10    7    9    2   11   13    8    7   10
Gain (4 Levels)   1    1    0    2    2    1    0    1   (rounded down)
Personal Lv 14    8   10    2   13   15    9    7   11
      Class      16    3    0    5    7    4    2    6
      Total      24   13    2   18   22   13    9   17

Shigure (actual) / Pegasus Warrior Lv 14 
​                 HP  Str  Mag  Skl  Spd  Luk  Def  Res
      Total      27   12    2   16   20   13   11   16
      Class      16    3    0    5    7    4    2    6
   Personal      11    9    2   11   13    9    9   10

(Assumed growth rates)
​                 HP  Str  Mag  Skl  Spd  Luk  Def  Res
Aqua             25   50   25   60   60   40   15   35
Suzukaze         55   40    0   45   65   20   20   35
Shigure          35   45    5   45   35   25   35   25

Combined         38   45   10   50   53   28   23   31

​The result didn't vary as much this time, but my Shigure is still slightly short-changed of everything except HP and Res.

I don't see any obvious pattern right now. May need to investigate more.

Edited July 13, 2015 by nocturnal YL