General US Politics

[Dr. Tarrasque]

2 hours ago, Shoblongoo said:

Just for the lulz, I googled the top headlines for the 3 main cable news networks as this story was breaking. And this is just so telling of the problem we have with misinformation and entertainment 'news' in this country:

To back that up, let me remind everyone that on the day Michael Cohen was raided by the FBI, Tucker Carlson focused on Sex-Crazed Pandas.

Also, on the subject of Trump willingly releasing a transcript, let's not forget that Nixon did the same thing. It was BS back then, it will be BS now.

Edited September 24, 2019 by Dr. Tarrasque

[Shoblongoo]

All sources now reporting that Pelosi is going to announce the official start of House Impeachment Proceedings.

lol now FOX is headlining it. (can't ignore that) 

Edited September 24, 2019 by Shoblongoo

[Zapp Branniglenn]

On a scale of 1 to 10, how impeach-worthy is this latest offense? Knowing the administration's track record, we can say Watergate is a 4 for sake of comparison.

[Dr. Tarrasque]

This one would probably be a 9-10 given how blatant and easily defined it is:

https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=(title:52 section:30121 edition:prelim)

But of course, Republicans will try to ignore/spin it. After all, back in 2016 Trump broke that law when he publicly called for Russia to get Hillary's e-mails

Quote

(2) a person to solicit, accept, or receive a contribution or donation described in subparagraph (A) or (B) of paragraph (1) from a foreign national.

 

Edited September 24, 2019 by Dr. Tarrasque

[Shoblongoo]

12 minutes ago, Glennstavos said:

On a scale of 1 to 10, how impeach-worthy is this latest offense? Knowing the administration's track record, we can say Watergate is a 4 for sake of comparison.

...put it this way...

Last time the allegation was that he solicited a foreign government to engage in criminal misconduct for the purposes of damaging a rival presidential candidate. That was a 10.

This time the allegation is he solicited a foreign government to engage in criminal misconduct for the purposes of damaging a rival presidential candidate, and did so by illicit means of bribery and/or extortion.    

_____

EDIT:  She did it:  https://thehill.com/homenews/house/462798-pelosi-backs-launching-formal-impeachment-inquiry-Trump

"House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Tuesday announced the launch of a formal impeachment inquiry into President Trump."

"The speaker had long resisted calls for impeachment proceedings but as of Tuesday afternoon more than two-thirds of her caucus supported impeachment, with their ranks swelling after recent allegations that Trump made military aid to Ukraine conditional on that nation launching an investigation of former Vice President Joe Biden and his son, Hunter."

Edited September 24, 2019 by Shoblongoo

[Zapp Branniglenn]

9 minutes ago, Shoblongoo said:

Last time the allegation was that he solicited a foreign government to engage in criminal misconduct for the purposes of damaging a rival presidential candidate. That was a 10.

Was it a ten? I didn't hear many calls for impeachment inquiries from Congress. 

8 minutes ago, Shoblongoo said:

This time the allegation is he solicited a foreign government to engage in criminal misconduct for the purposes of damaging a rival presidential candidate, and did so by illicit means of bribery and/or extortion.    

Maybe I'm missing the bigger picture but the story was broke by a whistleblower, correct? Why is the president now bragging about it instead of deny deny deny? I mean, he can deny something reported on by the freaking FBI and the waters will calm eventually. 

[Etrurian emperor]

3 hours ago, Shoblongoo said:

Big news of the day is of course the developing story that Trump tried to extort the Ukrainian government for negative headlines against Joe Biden, by withholding foreign aid funds allocated by Congress unless and until  they agreed to open a criminal investigation against The Biden Family's activities in the Ukraine. 

Trump to the Ukrainian president. 

''That's a cute country you have there. It would be a shame if I withheld aid and let my buddy Putin stamp all over it''

[Dr. Tarrasque]

26 minutes ago, Glennstavos said:

Maybe I'm missing the bigger picture but the story was broke by a whistleblower, correct? Why is the president now bragging about it instead of deny deny deny? I mean, he can deny something reported on by the freaking FBI and the waters will calm eventually. 

It's Trump. Don't expect him to make sense.

A possibility is that Trump is riding on the notion that Impeaching Clinton had hurt the Republicans , which is a talking point McConnell used to dissuade Democrats on Impeachment. At this point Trump wants to be re-elected into office so he can continue muddying the waters on his crimes, avoid being charged due to the bullshit "can't indict a sitting president" notion that would be backed up by Kavanaugh if it goes to the Supreme Court and profiting from the presidency.

Either way, I'm hoping Pelosi's district still votes her out. It wouldn't surprise me if her decision to finally support the impeachment inquiry is more of a result of Trump's attack on the Presidential candidate SHE desires as oppose to the fact that Trump's an obvious criminal and there's enough evidence to warrant the inquiry.

Btw, Trump could lose the popular vote by as many as 5 Million votes and still get reelected.

Edited September 24, 2019 by Dr. Tarrasque

[Etrurian emperor]

21 minutes ago, Glennstavos said:

Maybe I'm missing the bigger picture but the story was broke by a whistleblower, correct? Why is the president now bragging about it instead of deny deny deny? I mean, he can deny something reported on by the freaking FBI and the waters will calm eventually. 

Because in the end this might just end up hurting Biden and not Trump. It will be Clinton vs Trump all over again where dirt actually sticks on Clinton but Trump's cult forgives everything he does. 

This will not change any minds on Trump. Everyone who already realized he was openly corrupt and prepared to employ foreign intervention on his behalf will see this knowledge validated. But everyone who suspected Trump of being capable of this already knew this and thus no new minds will be swayed. Trump's cult has already demonstrated it will forgive and excuse anything Trump does so Trump openly showing himself to be corrupt and abusing his office to fund a private cause(his election) won't concern them. Its just another example of Trump's corruption that they will ignore. And as always the Republicans will protect Trump from this abuse of office coming back to bite him because they sold their souls to him. This should affect Trump very heavily and very negatively but it won't.

But its different with Biden. Unlike Trump he has supporters who might actually care. Biden does need to hold himself to certain standards because unlike Trump his supporters actively expect this of him and might walk out if he doesn't deliver. Just like Clinton's who's wrongdoings were easily overshadowed by Trump but also more damaging because unlike Trump she didn't have a cult that excused everything she did.

[Shoblongoo]

16 hours ago, Glennstavos said:

Was it a ten? I didn't hear many calls for impeachment inquiries from Congress. 

10/10 Congress didn't do its job.

Watergate being a "4"--that's your scale, right?  What was "Watergate"?

Watergate was law enforcement catching Republican operatives in the act of breaking into the hotel room of a prominent Democrat, for the purposes of trying to steal documents and get 'dirt' that they could use in the upcoming election. 

Nixon denied any knowledge or involvement, but obstructed the federal investigation into the attempted theft of documents and constantly attacked the investigation + reporting on the investigation as a politically motivated liberal conspiracy against his presidency.

And then when the evidence uncovered by the investigation came out: it turned out Nixon not only knew about the hotel break-in and attempted document theft, but had personally instructed the operatives involved to do it.
________________

Alter the fact pattern as follows:

1)  The attempted theft of documents was conducted by way of cyber-crime rather than physical breaking-and-entering; exposing far more persons and far more documents to potential theft.

2)  It wasn't just an attempted theft. It was a completed and successful one, which did in fact result in thousands of documents being stolen and used to influence an election.

3)  It wasn't Republican Party operatives who did it. It was the intelligence and espionage services of a hostile foreign government. 

4)  Prior to any investigation or official investigatory findings, there was public video of the presidential candidate beneficiary right before the theft and release saying: "Russia. If you are listening, I hope that you are able to find the emails."  

5)  The agents who investigated the theft of documents and the President's knowledge + involvement were retaliated against for conducting the investigations by the President's Justice Department with their investigation itself becoming the subject of 'investigation,' under directives from the president that investigating him for criminal misconduct was itself criminal misconduct. 


....and you have crimes + abuses of power several magnitudes above Watergate...

Which is what Congress had already been presented with before the Ukraine story broke.  

And if Congress today had the ethics and efficacy of Congress during the Nixon presidency, he already would have been impeached for that much. 
 

Edited September 25, 2019 by Shoblongoo

[Interdimensional Observer]

It's the septic tank presidency. The amount of stink is already so bad, finding more in it won't change anything. And, the amount of excrement is too great to be vacuumed out.

I feel sorry for Pelosi. I only hope the need to do the Constitutional duty, even though it is practically futile b/c Senate, will not produce the bad result she and all others who hesitate at even the impeachment inquiry (myself included) fear- a 2020 win for the septic tank.

November 2018 was full of hope of a check to balance the presidency. How the House fangs have shown themselves ineffectually dull since then. Now, they risk a scenario where attempt to check has failed, and they'll fall out of favor with a majority of the electorate for 2020.

[Shoblongoo]

1 hour ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

 I only hope the need to do the Constitutional duty, even though it is practically futile b/c Senate, will not produce the bad result she and all others who hesitate at even the impeachment inquiry (myself included) fear- a 2020 win for the septic tank.

 

Its a given that impeachment is dead-on-arrival in the Senate, but that doesn't make it futile.

It moves the fact pattern from "Democrats did not impeach Trump for high crimes"  to   "Democrats impeached Trump for high crimes, and Senate Republicans protected him."

Which will be a cross that the offending Senators will have to carry for the rest of their public life and political careers. And something they will have to convince voters is not disqualifying every single time they run for reelection. 

Edited September 25, 2019 by Shoblongoo

[Dr. Tarrasque]

White House e-mail to GOP for talking points... they accidentally sent it to some Democrats.

[eclipse]

4 hours ago, Shoblongoo said:

Its a given that impeachment is dead-on-arrival in the Senate, but that doesn't make it futile.

It moves the fact pattern from "Democrats did not impeach Trump for high crimes"  to   "Democrats impeached Trump for high crimes, and Senate Republicans protected him."

Which will be a cross that the offending Senators will have to carry for the rest of their public life and political careers. And something they will have to convince voters is not disqualifying every single time they run for reelection. 

You're assuming that the ones that voted for those senators think this way.  I've had a. . .chance to interact with some that support Trump.  He could stab every last Democrat in the House on live TV, and they wouldn't see it as a crime, let alone an impeachable offense.

IMO it's not longer a political discourse.  It's a shitty sporting event.

[Dr. Tarrasque]

8 minutes ago, eclipse said:

You're assuming that the ones that voted for those senators think this way.  I've had a. . .chance to interact with some that support Trump.  He could stab every last Democrat in the House on live TV, and they wouldn't see it as a crime, let alone an impeachable offense.

IMO it's not longer a political discourse.  It's a shitty sporting event.

It should at least weaken the chances of Trump getting reelected due to the Electoral College. Just as you have these rabid people cultivated by Fox News, there are those that voted for him and will now seek refuge in silence just like with W Bush because they can't stand what an embarrassment Trump has turned out to be. The only question is how much of the Swing state Electorate will actually shift to make the difference and hopefully it is despite the blunder I'm suspecting from the DNC and conservative Democrats.

Edited September 25, 2019 by Dr. Tarrasque

[eclipse]

18 minutes ago, Dr. Tarrasque said:

It should at least weaken the chances of Trump getting reelected due to the Electoral College. Just as you have these rabid people cultivated by Fox News, there are those that voted for him and will now seek refuge in silence just like with W Bush because they can't stand what an embarrassment Trump has turned out to be. The only question is how much of the Swing state Electorate will actually shift to make the difference and hopefully it is despite the blunder I'm suspecting from the DNC and conservative Democrats.

I'm more interested in those that vote for the Senate/House.  That's where you're more likely to see polarization.

[Shoblongoo]

37 minutes ago, eclipse said:

You're assuming that the ones that voted for those senators think this way.  I've had a. . .chance to interact with some that support Trump.  He could stab every last Democrat in the House on live TV, and they wouldn't see it as a crime, let alone an impeachable offense.

IMO it's not longer a political discourse.  It's a shitty sporting event.

The hard-red states filled with insurmountable populations of those kinds of voters are off-the-table, but...

...Arizona has a Republican Senate seat to defend + is a place where democrats can win statewide elections...
...Colorado has a Republican Senate seat to defend + is a place where democrats can win statewide elections...
...Ohio has a Republican Senate seat to defend + is a place where democrats can win statewide elections...
...Pennsylvania has a Republican Senate seat to defend + is a place where democrats can win statewide elections...
...Montana has a  Republican Senate seat to defend + is a place where democrats can win statewide elections...

2 Republican Senators from Florida (always swingable on the margins)

Susan Collins is vulnerable in Maine 
Ron Johnson is vulnerable in Wisconson

Put them all the record. Make them take the vote.

Bludgeon their political careers to death with it and use it as rocket fuel to retake the Senate if they put party over country--there's not enough diehard Trumpers to save all of them.

 

Edited September 25, 2019 by Shoblongoo

[Dr. Tarrasque]

And here it is: How the Democrats are going to fuck this up. It's like they're paid by their donors to lose to Republicans every time.

[Lewyn]

They are likely doing this cause most Americans are too stupid or ignorant to follow multiple crimes/situations.  The Russian interference was way over their heads so when Trump says it proved him innocent many believe it.  People forget all of his cronies that got locked up in that investigation, but whatever.  

I think they should focus on all aspects that support impeachment of Trump, but again Americans for many it is way over their heads.  The whistleblower thing is really simple and straightforward or at least appears to be.  The thing is as far as conviction in the Senate the more impeachable offenses the better, so those who still defend Trump will look much worse.  I'm sure the Mitch and has his fellow conmen can spin a single accusation regardless of evidence in a way that makes it seem like nothing or a democrat conspiracy to oust Trump for no reason.

Anyways defense of Trump is usually the same.  Either, "Obama did much worse!" listing some made up offenses, or Democrats have been after Trump from the beginning and have no grounds for their accusation, ignoring it.  It is just pathetic but his followers believe it anyways.  I'm embarrassed of America and for America.

I urge everyone to not get to excited, Trump and the GOP are experts at blocking, delaying.  If they were so confident that this is just a witch hunt surely we could get full reports, etc.  House will likely impeach Trump, but Senate will not convict.  Then since they will block, release heavily redacted versions, etc the American people could be easily swayed into thinking this is just a partisan attack and not an affront to our country.  

 

[Dr. Tarrasque]

The audio of Trump suggesting the whistleblower be treated for treason has been made public

Edited September 26, 2019 by Dr. Tarrasque

[dragonlordsd]

It's early, but here's my prediction for how this goes down:

1. House Impeaches Trump

2. Senate surprises everyone by holding trial.

3. Trump is acquitted, but barely.

Basically, just a rehash of Johnson or Clinton.

That said, looking at both of those two examples, the acquittal doesn't mean much, and likely won't in this case. Here are the factors I think will come into play:

1. There are enough votes in the house to impeach him, so that will happen as long as the democrats want it to.

2. This is shady enough that the more central-leaning senators will agree to a trial. (Or rather, it's too risky to not hold a trial)

Now we get to point 3. Basically, the two thirds threshold is a high one to cross. Without a new bombshell, it's unlikely to go through. There is the late-night-party-mentality argument (ie, some people are tired and want to go home, but are afraid to be the first to leave, but once enough people crack, it starts becoming risky to stay), but we'll see if that actually has any effect.

[Lord Raven]

Reportedly 30-35 senators would vote to remove trump behind closed doors, but the GOP is too intertwined with fuckface von clownstick to make it happen

[dragonlordsd]

2 hours ago, Lord Raven said:

Reportedly 30-35 senators would vote to remove trump behind closed doors, but the GOP is too intertwined with fuckface von clownstick to make it happen

I 100% believe this is true.

I think that if the GOP could swap trump for pence without damaging the party, they'd do it in a heartbeat. It would be a lot safer and more comfortable for them.

[Lewyn]

5 hours ago, dragonlordsd said:

It's early, but here's my prediction for how this goes down:

1. House Impeaches Trump

2. Senate surprises everyone by holding trial.

3. Trump is acquitted, but barely.

Basically, just a rehash of Johnson or Clinton.

That said, looking at both of those two examples, the acquittal doesn't mean much, and likely won't in this case. Here are the factors I think will come into play:

1. There are enough votes in the house to impeach him, so that will happen as long as the democrats want it to.

2. This is shady enough that the more central-leaning senators will agree to a trial. (Or rather, it's too risky to not hold a trial)

Now we get to point 3. Basically, the two thirds threshold is a high one to cross. Without a new bombshell, it's unlikely to go through. There is the late-night-party-mentality argument (ie, some people are tired and want to go home, but are afraid to be the first to leave, but once enough people crack, it starts becoming risky to stay), but we'll see if that actually has any effect.

There has to be a bombshell so big that even Fox, Mitch, Ben Shapiro, Rush, etc can't spin to make it seem like its a witch hunt, fake news, or making a big deal out of nothing.  There will be some good conscious Republican senators will vote, but many will only if they feel that the Republican voters/people have mostly turned against Trump.  

Oh yeah and #4

Somehow Biden's name gets dirtied just cause of all of Trump's BS corruption claims, and it allows Elizabeth Warren (who looks like she would win anyway) to come out on top.  This kind of scares me, it took a perfect storm for our first non white male president, well he was still half white (Obama) to be elected.  A woman?  So many people will refuse to vote cause of that alone, stupid but hey that is unfortunately how it is.  We also have Trump's Pocohantes nickname and the Native American claim conspiracy, an easy thing that Trump will keep coming back to.  

Would prefer a white male just to insure this orange piece of garbage goes down.  I would say Bernie, but is their anti semite sentiment?  Probably, but not as much as anti woman.  Anyways if a Democrat wins in a close election, Trump will demand a recount, and he will never accept the result.  He will have to be forcibly removed from the white house, and a civil war on the streets will erupt between the brain washed Trump zealots and those who are for democracy.  

If a Democrat wins in a landslide, he is going to use every resource and do it illegally (assumed he wasn't impeached) to continue to investigate and try to dig up dirt on the the president elect.  Regardless of what is found he will have strong negative words.  Then same thing, he will refuse to step down.  Saying he is protecting America from the evil (president elect).  He will be forcibly removed (I hope so, don't know the legal specifics) and a civil war will erupt.

Oh and if he is impeached a civil war will erupt.  Trump has destroyed this country regardless, that does take a certain kind of incredible ability.  What was once Rome.  What was once America.

[Dr. Tarrasque]

The first Republican in the house comes forward in support of impeachment. Immediate calls to primary him.

He may be in the more despicable party but the dude deserves respect doing the right thing despite the sycophantic behavior from his side.