General US Politics

[Lewyn]

I don't care how many skeletons Biden has in his closet, I'm voting for him over Trump. 

The Michigan protesters are so dumb, storming government buildings armed with guns.  They should be forcibly driven out.  Considering the importance of controlling spread of disease such crowds should be broken up by the police.  If they want to spread the disease amongst themselves and live or die with the consequences that is fine but they are going to spread it to others as well.  It is same argument against public smoking, I'd rather a person do heroine than light up in public spaces, cause they are harming others with their actions.

Trump is not fucked for 2020.  Biden is boring and they are going to milk the Tara Read violation for all its worth, and exaggerate Joe's cognitive decline/speech whatever.   Trump campaign has much much more money.  The electoral system heavily favors Republicans, and Republicans still love Trump...or at least prefer him over a Democrat.  An enormous right wing media machine is spinning Trump as the ultimate hero.  A flawless man who is fighting for freedom and everything that is good and just.  

With this Covid 19 it is going to be even harder to try to relocate to another country if Trump does win.  

[eclipse]

1 hour ago, Lord Raven said:

Trump is fucked for 2020, short of some bullshit with the mail-in infrastructure. The Michigan lockdowns all but ensure Michigan goes to Biden and 2016 was an outlier. There's going to be a second wave of COVID because these dumbass governors are opening back up and Trump is going to continue to show why he's a fucking incompetent moron and how his recklessness is gonna cause at least 1000 deaths a day. Fox news having absolute witch cunts like Dr. Oz saying "it's ok only 2-3% of the kids will die when we send them to school" talk at length and the whole injecting bleach bullshit is going to absolutely murder Trump. The reason why it's different now compared to 2016 is because the ever-infallible white male is his opponent and not Hillary "literally Hitler except Raven actually loves her" Clinton.

Polling is also currently making Texas purple and Biden is pulling ahead of Trump in Florida. Either way, fuck that Trump 2020 bullshit, I'm doing everything I can to vote Biden 2020 and I'm genuinely excited for a Joe Biden / Stacey Abrams or Tammy Duckworth ticket (idk those are the two running mates I have in mind). I genuinely currently believe (at the risk of female sexual assault victims coming at me over this) that the sexual assault allegation from T. Reade are targeted well-shitting, and that Reade is either conflating a separate incident with Biden for political expediency or something else entirely. I don't think it'll stick, given their extremely well thought-out response.

Anyway I'm genuinely excited for the Biden ticket because he extended an olive branch to the many candidates on the field and his strong endorsement from Sanders and Warren were really heartwarming amidst everything going on. He absorbed parts of the Sanders campaign and he wants to incorporate Pete/Warren/Klobuchar/etc into his platform policy-wise.

Heya!  Glad to hear that you're okay!

I honestly hope you're right about this.  Though I feel as long as Biden doesn't pick the equivalent of Palin, he should have a decent shot at this.  From what I've read, the federal government is, um, repossessing PPE from other states, to their detriment.

12 minutes ago, Excellen Browning said:

I'm genuinely not excited for Biden. He's a mewling centrist, a known shill for the health insurance industry, and he needs to stop touching and kissing people inappropriately. I'd still vote for him though.

Centrist is a pretty ringing endorsement in my books.  Because a far left candidate will cause those that should change. . .to not change.

[Lord Raven]

5 hours ago, Excellen Browning said:

I'm genuinely not excited for Biden. He's a mewling centrist, a known shill for the health insurance industry, and he needs to stop touching and kissing people inappropriately. I'd still vote for him though.

I'd say this is the important part. I'm fine with a centrist, mostly because there's so much diversity in the Democratic Party that he ends up being a compromise candidate (and left-of-center from my view, he did push his policies leftwards). His coalition building is probably the strongest among all the candidates, which is the primary reason I'm excited.

As for the touching/kissing, I maintain that's a cultural thing. Biden reminds me more of a Pakistani uncle (I've made this comparison a lot) in the over-familiarity and lack of personal space, because personal space doesn't feel like it exists in my culture (among many others). Not that I'm necessarily complaining; I understand the complaint fully and I'm glad he's said he will stop, but I don't think his past actions here are necessarily disqualifying.

5 hours ago, Lewyn said:

Trump is not fucked for 2020.  1) Biden is boring and they are going to milk the Tara Read violation for all its worth, and exaggerate Joe's cognitive decline/speech whatever. 2) Trump campaign has much much more money.  3) The electoral system heavily favors Republicans, and Republicans still love Trump...or at least prefer him over a Democrat.  An enormous right wing media machine is spinning Trump as the ultimate hero.  A flawless man who is fighting for freedom and everything that is good and just.  

1) They will milk anything. The Republican propaganda machine takes any skeleton and amplifies it 100-fold, but the crazy part of the Tara Reade allegation is that even a Trump cock-holster like Lindsay Graham isn't willing to go low about this. I think that is more telling, I think the Trump admin will end up having ads and shit like this then talk at lengths about how different the response is between Kavanaugh and Trump, but ultimately that won't win over the fact that, well, the Reade accusation is flimsy and Trump's incompetence has managed to kill, unemploy, and sicken a lot of people and shut down our economy for two months...  twice. We're only in May, this shit won't be a hoax in August when the second wave comes.

As for his cognitive/speech decline, see the Sideshow Bob ad again. Whether or not you believe that, I'm not sure, but one debate between Trump and Biden will easily settle that in the minds of a moderate.

2) Biden slaughtered the Democratic primaries -- some in Sanders-heavy states, some in Warren-heavy states, but mostly after NC -- without spending money. And when I say slaughtered, I mean slaughtered, the amount he won Michigan and Florida by were absolutely disgusting.

3) This has been the handicap for a while, but considering even Fox News has verified that the O'Donnell allegations are fake, I wouldn't be surprised if they're trying to get out of this nonsense too. There's still 6 months for Trump to fuck everything up and kill even more of us. I'm safe, quarantined, and everyone in my family still has their job/my dad has a steady income due to his sick leave, so frankly I'm not very worried at all on a personal level, so I'm hopeful, but man this really isn't an issue that Trump will be able to say "I saved us from China and North Korea" then hide from for a few days. I think, unless somehow he manages to get COVID under control (he won't, just by the fact that a Republican Governor had to hide tests from the federal government using the Maryland national guard and his whole twitter rant about FREE MICHIGAN and all that bullshit, the invisible enemy shit) then his re-election bid is all but over.

It's also not as easy to shit on a white man in this country as it is to shit on a nerdy woman, especially someone who's willing to throw fists like Biden is.

I'll do my research into polling and try to basically make the point of how Biden's in much better position than Clinton was later (not necessarily better polling shape -- remember with the nature of disasters, presidents tend to get a bump in their approval ratings an what-have-you in spite of how shit a job they do), but the main election really hasn't started yet... it's just kinda crazy the conspiracy peddling I'm seeing this time around when Biden won primaries by a significant fraction more than Clinton did.

Edited May 5, 2020 by Lord Raven

[Etrurian emperor]

15 hours ago, Lord Raven said:

Trump is fucked for 2020

I'll believe it when I see it. Trump was also fucked in 2016 and look how that turned out. Trump might have mishandled Corona far worse then even his worst critics would have thought but that's just one more reason on the gigantic pile of reasons not to vote for Trump that then gets ignored when the election comes around. I do not believe Trump's cult cares at all about Corona and the memory of the American electorate is so poor that I can see many people just forgetting about this mess if Corona turns out to be over when elections come around 

Edited May 5, 2020 by Etrurian emperor

[Karimlan]

1 hour ago, Etrurian emperor said:

the memory of the American electorate is so poor that I can see many people just forgetting about this mess if Corona turns out to be over when elections come around

You mean, Philippine levels of forgetfulness? C'mon!

But yeah, it'll be a wait-and-see kinda deal whether November skews red or blue.

[Shoblongoo]

The first question voters ask themselves in a presidential election is: am I better off today then I was 4 years ago.

4 years ago the economy was out of recession, producing steady growth, and there had been no emergent national crisis since The Crash of 2008.

Today we’re at depression level unemployment, the supermarkets are half-empty, and people are holed up in their houses stockpiling toilet paper

 

[Excellen Browning]

If that was the case, then clearly Hillary Clinton would have won.

[Lord Raven]

5 hours ago, Excellen Browning said:

If that was the case, then clearly Hillary Clinton would have won.

Yeah, but she was also the target of like 24 years of GOP propaganda aided by a bunch of brogressives actively bringing up her emails and shit and all of that ended up sticking. Women are a hate magnet in this country, Clinton had to spend way more to beat Sanders by relatively narrow margins compared to Biden.

We can talk a lot about how this election compares to 2016, but let's be real: 2016 was not a noticeable improvement over 2012 for a lot of Americans, in many cases much worse (look at heroin towns and manufacturing towns). 2020 has all of that times a million, with COVID everywhere, businesses completely failing and many of our elderly will likely die by the fall. It's such a different atmosphere that I have no doubt his supporters will be affected much worse due to rural voters attempting to protest. People *want* a moderate right now who can run the bureaucracy and handle aid, not a hot air machine like Trump.

10 hours ago, Etrurian emperor said:

I'll believe it when I see it. Trump was also fucked in 2016 and look how that turned out. Trump might have mishandled Corona far worse then even his worst critics would have thought but that's just one more reason on the gigantic pile of reasons not to vote for Trump that then gets ignored when the election comes around. I do not believe Trump's cult cares at all about Corona and the memory of the American electorate is so poor that I can see many people just forgetting about this mess if Corona turns out to be over when elections come around 

There is no doubt in my mind COVID isn't going away. COVID has been legitimately one of the biggest fucking nightmares in the majority of people's lives, and it's not something you can propaganda away.

A few things worth pointing out;

- Biden's lead over Trump compared to Clinton's lead over Trump on the national polls. It's an extremely stark difference.

- Biden beat Sanders by double digits in many, many states. Many states Biden won entire counties. That seems to give the impression of an energized base.

- Look at the Wisconsin elections. There's massive blue waves coming, to the extent where I believe even McConnell has a chance of being unseated this year.

McConnell has been getting a ton of shit from some people (not nearly enough, but it'll grow) because he kept pressuring the states to go bankrupt instead of giving them relief (which, ultimately, would allow for predatory lenders to fuck over the poor states) and he's basically being obstinate about any COVID-relief.

- Trump literally said he was treated worse than Lincoln. A bit of an aside, but this really did manage to piss people off.

- Biden's somehow not being hurt by one sexual assault claim that seemed legitimate until... well, they started to back off some when Biden offered them to check every avenue of proof that was claimed.

I sincerely think we need to re-evaluate the way we view female politicians as a society. That's my only conclusion to explain this, really. I think the Biden dementia horseshit will be dispelled in debate against Trump more than anything, given that Biden is an actual straight shooter and Trump is more of a straight shitter.

Edited May 5, 2020 by Lord Raven

[Shoblongoo]

Fired HHS doctor just filed a whistleblower complaint against Trump alleging that he ignored multiple warnings about the virus back in January.

Then removed him from his job, because he objected to the award of government contracts and funds to projects that were going to Trump-backed entities that had presented no scientific basis for the projects to be funded instead of to entities actually coming to HHS with good science on what research they were doing to combat the virus.

Just broke in the last hour and don’t know how accurate those early summaries are.

Story developing.

Edited May 5, 2020 by Shoblongoo

[Lord Raven]

Can you link the article? I only ask because I have read it myself here but it would be nice to have a collection of sources.

[Karimlan]

Here's one--

Whistleblower: I Was Fired Over Warnings About Hydroxychloroquine

[Lewyn]

On 5/4/2020 at 5:32 PM, Lord Raven said:

 

1) They will milk anything. The Republican propaganda machine takes any skeleton and amplifies it 100-fold, but the crazy part of the Tara Reade allegation is that even a Trump cock-holster like Lindsay Graham isn't willing to go low about this. I think that is more telling, I think the Trump admin will end up having ads and shit like this then talk at lengths about how different the response is between Kavanaugh and Trump, but ultimately that won't win over the fact that, well, the Reade accusation is flimsy and Trump's incompetence has managed to kill, unemploy, and sicken a lot of people and shut down our economy for two months...  twice. We're only in May, this shit won't be a hoax in August when the second wave comes.

As for his cognitive/speech decline, see the Sideshow Bob ad again. Whether or not you believe that, I'm not sure, but one debate between Trump and Biden will easily settle that in the minds of a moderate.

2) Biden slaughtered the Democratic primaries -- some in Sanders-heavy states, some in Warren-heavy states, but mostly after NC -- without spending money. And when I say slaughtered, I mean slaughtered, the amount he won Michigan and Florida by were absolutely disgusting.

3) This has been the handicap for a while, but considering even Fox News has verified that the O'Donnell allegations are fake, I wouldn't be surprised if they're trying to get out of this nonsense too. There's still 6 months for Trump to fuck everything up and kill even more of us. I'm safe, quarantined, and everyone in my family still has their job/my dad has a steady income due to his sick leave, so frankly I'm not very worried at all on a personal level, so I'm hopeful, but man this really isn't an issue that Trump will be able to say "I saved us from China and North Korea" then hide from for a few days. I think, unless somehow he manages to get COVID under control (he won't, just by the fact that a Republican Governor had to hide tests from the federal government using the Maryland national guard and his whole twitter rant about FREE MICHIGAN and all that bullshit, the invisible enemy shit) then his re-election bid is all but over.

It's also not as easy to shit on a white man in this country as it is to shit on a nerdy woman, especially someone who's willing to throw fists like Biden is.

I'll do my research into polling and try to basically make the point of how Biden's in much better position than Clinton was later (not necessarily better polling shape -- remember with the nature of disasters, presidents tend to get a bump in their approval ratings an what-have-you in spite of how shit a job they do), but the main election really hasn't started yet... it's just kinda crazy the conspiracy peddling I'm seeing this time around when Biden won primaries by a significant fraction more than Clinton did.

1. That's the thing the republican propaganda will milk anything and do so extremely effectively and extremely ruthlessly.  Most of right wing media has no shame so much of it will get tons of coverage as long as it can't be blown back.  On the Reade accusation  Republicans are often united in outright denial of accusations of sexual misconduct on fellow Republicans, and will cover it up as much as they can. Democrats who have much more publicly supported the Me too movement, and support of victims are stuck having to take these allegations seriously regardless of credibility.  Giving it a thorough investigation.  Latest gallup poll has approval of Trump at 49%, tying an all time high.  Among independents he has an approval of 47% which is the highest he's ever scored.  Is it the twilight zone?  I wish, but Trump seems immune and somehow growing stronger.

I think Biden is as sharp as ever cognitively, just that his speech stuttering has come out more recently.  Stuttering or other speech impediments often persuade (wrongfully in many cases) that the person is unintelligent or has something seriously wrong.  

2. Biden did great in the Democratic primaries but how much does that mean in the general election?  Trump didn't exactly slaughter his way to the top in the Republican primaries, but somehow he is our president.  

3. Yes there is 6 months left for Trump to screw things over worse and I'm sure he'll make plenty of mistakes and do plenty of evil things, but how much is enough that it actually impacts his popularity?  Also even if Covid will be with us for awhile, if the economy does start recovering before election he is going to take credit and most people will believe him.  His handling of the virus, many defend and compare to European countries who have had similar results or done worse while ignoring the countries that have done better and ignoring any wrongdoing he did.  He has successfully sold his China ban, while Biden called him racist and Pelosi encouraged people to go dancing in Chinatown to many people.  

Biden is a man which is a massive advantage of Hillary Clinton.  However he has the same problem of being uncharismatic, somewhat boring speaker, seen as an "establishment" Democrat.  Look in any rational world someone like Trump would never be elected to President, but here we are.  Also incumbents have a huge advantage.  I think we would have to go into a Great Depression, Covid to still be hitting hard (thousands dying everyday) to give me any confidence that he will lose.  I think we should all believe that Biden is a super underdog and go out and vote and encourage others if you don't want another 4 years of chaos under Trump.

[Karimlan]

3 hours ago, Shoblongoo said:

Fired HHS doctor just filed a whistleblower complaint against Trump alleging that he ignored multiple warnings about the virus back in January.

Then removed him from his job, because he objected to the award of government contracts and funds to projects that were going to Trump-backed entities that had presented no scientific basis for the projects to be funded instead of to entities actually coming to HHS with good science on what research they were doing to combat the virus.

• Ousted vaccine official alleges he was demoted for prioritizing ‘science and safety’
• Ousted HHS official files whistleblower complaint on coronavirus response
• Government scientist says he was demoted for resisting political pressure to ‘flood’ East Coast with hydroxychloroquine

The consensus among these articles is that a medication that doctors in question found to be only marginally effective against COVID-19 and have too-big-to-ignore side effects to the people the drug is supposed to treat is being pushed by Trump et al, and Dr Bright has gotten the axe for breaking the not-so-palatable news to The Big Orange.

[Lord Raven]

5 hours ago, Lewyn said:

1. That's the thing the republican propaganda will milk anything and do so extremely effectively and extremely ruthlessly.  Most of right wing media has no shame so much of it will get tons of coverage as long as it can't be blown back.  On the Reade accusation  Republicans are often united in outright denial of accusations of sexual misconduct on fellow Republicans, and will cover it up as much as they can. Democrats who have much more publicly supported the Me too movement, and support of victims are stuck having to take these allegations seriously regardless of credibility.  Giving it a thorough investigation.  Latest gallup poll has approval of Trump at 49%, tying an all time high.  Among independents he has an approval of 47% which is the highest he's ever scored.  Is it the twilight zone?  I wish, but Trump seems immune and somehow growing stronger.

I think Biden is as sharp as ever cognitively, just that his speech stuttering has come out more recently.  Stuttering or other speech impediments often persuade (wrongfully in many cases) that the person is unintelligent or has something seriously wrong.  

2. Biden did great in the Democratic primaries but how much does that mean in the general election?  Trump didn't exactly slaughter his way to the top in the Republican primaries, but somehow he is our president.  

3. Yes there is 6 months left for Trump to screw things over worse and I'm sure he'll make plenty of mistakes and do plenty of evil things, but how much is enough that it actually impacts his popularity?  Also even if Covid will be with us for awhile, if the economy does start recovering before election he is going to take credit and most people will believe him.  His handling of the virus, many defend and compare to European countries who have had similar results or done worse while ignoring the countries that have done better and ignoring any wrongdoing he did.  He has successfully sold his China ban, while Biden called him racist and Pelosi encouraged people to go dancing in Chinatown to many people.  

Biden is a man which is a massive advantage of Hillary Clinton.  However he has the same problem of being uncharismatic, somewhat boring speaker, seen as an "establishment" Democrat.  Look in any rational world someone like Trump would never be elected to President, but here we are.  Also incumbents have a huge advantage.  I think we would have to go into a Great Depression, Covid to still be hitting hard (thousands dying everyday) to give me any confidence that he will lose.  I think we should all believe that Biden is a super underdog and go out and vote and encourage others if you don't want another 4 years of chaos under Trump.

1. The Republican propaganda machine will only end up suppressing a few moderates (they have zero way to cover for Trump's shortcomings in 2020) because the hate for Trump is massive. For good reason too.

The Lincoln Project is primarily classical conservatives, one of whom is Kellyanne Conway's husband, and they sent out this ad against Trump. Sentiment is growing against him, to the point where even Moscow Mitch is opposing tax cuts. If they don't send out another bunch of Trump bucks soon, that's another set of homeless people during the Trump admin.

30+ million people have lost their jobs and businesses. Trump is going to gradually become more and more unpopular. I've also said before that presidents get a ratings bump during a time of crisis -- his has not brought him up to 50% by liberal estimates (conservative estimates? idk what the right term is). that is an alarming thing for a president. Bush was at like 90% approval after 9/11, and this is way worse Fatfuck von Orangefuck is at 49%. That's stunning, honestly. A ratings bump during a crisis is just extremely common (people happy with their 1200 dollars who didn't lose their job are an easy contribution to that, as well as people receiving bailouts, etc, there's a ton of factors, but a crisis is ultimately the best way to manufacture a ratings bump, which Trump got almost nothing out of).

2. He'll be fiiiiine, he crushed Paul Ryan and he was very good with Palin in the past. Expect some verbal fisticuffs.

3. I agree we are not in a rational world, but an economic recovery won't bring back all the lost jobs. COVID is going to be a massive impact in our lives for years to come, people have lost businesses and jobs, in some cases forever. I would say, arguably, the need for an establishment is far more important than any sense of charisma. People are far more desperate in this election. For the record, thousands are dying every day to COVID, and it has no signs of letting up now that places have opened up.

Biden is actually plenty charismatic, just old. He was one of the most beloved senators in the hill simply because he is warm and friendly all-around -- listen to what Sanders and Warren have to say about him to get a feel for it. Sanders explicitly makes it a point to say that Biden was always his friend and always kind to him, and Warren recanted him saying "You gave me hell and you're gonna do a great job" when she was sworn in as senator. Whether or not he's charismatic to us is a bit up in the air, but he has the ability to make a grand coalition, to the point where he went from somewhat adversarial to Barack Obama to them being among the best of friends.

I'm also gonna reiterate that Wisconsin voters came out in droves to vote for the Democratic Governor because of COVID...  people are pissed, and the issues w/ mail-in voting (or the lack thereof) will not help matters at all.

 

By the way, where my Trump Supporters at? I still maintain that it was extremely stupid 5 years ago (I made the post five years ago) that people supported him, and I will double, triple, quintuple, 10tuple, 1000tuple down on it. He's been a fucking disaster of a president by all metrics, and this year was when the dam broke. I am in disbelief if anyone thinks otherwise. And don't try to devil's advocate; if you believe otherwise, then say it. If you don't, then don't be like "to be fair" and diminish his bullshit, because this is not the time or place for it.

 

 

EDIT: BTW I do appreciate you hammering your concerns -- there is reason for concern because the 2016 election did not go how we wanted -- so keep talking. My intent isn't to argue, I'm just trying to be positive and trying to see any new numbers and viewpoints to help polish my views, but I've never felt more sure of a candidate winning this far in advance than I do now. Literally trump will have to rig an election to win the presidency, because COVID is not going to stop just because places are reopening. The US hasn't come anywhere close to flattening the curve, and he doesn't fucking want to do tests. Wait till COVID begins to hit rural areas harder (these protests might ensure it) and people will see they've been conned, if they're not already dead.

Edited May 6, 2020 by Lord Raven

[eclipse]

3 hours ago, Lord Raven said:

By the way, where my Trump Supporters at? I still maintain that it was extremely stupid 5 years ago (I made the post five years ago) that people supported him, and I will double, triple, quintuple, 10tuple, 1000tuple down on it. He's been a fucking disaster of a president by all metrics, and this year was when the dam broke. I am in disbelief if anyone thinks otherwise. And don't try to devil's advocate; if you believe otherwise, then say it. If you don't, then don't be like "to be fair" and diminish his bullshit, because this is not the time or place for it.

They might have been banned.  Sorry~!

[Lord Raven]

I'm not looking for a fight or anyone in particular -- no matter what I always prefer new faces because I either rise to the challenge and see where my beliefs bend or where they're weak. One person I'm thinking of was toxic and reminded me of Ben Shapiro, but I heard about him from a fellow homerchu.

I'm justangry (I'm making it a point to show) and I'm genuinely curious if people have had a change of heart, or at least what their situation is if they are backing the lack of aid, lack of tests, and lack of support to Governors. And why he will deserve your vote. I have heard very very little talking about the level of misinformation from this administration and its general combativeness towards Governors admist this objectively absolute SHITSHOW -- from someone who supports him. And also wanna know why a third party vote is more preferable to four more years of this colossal shitshow.

EDIT: I also genuinely believe, even in blue states, putting overwhelming support into Biden will FORCE the republican party to adapt and go harder left. It's a possibility. If they can earn the progressive vote they shift progressive and sell the idea. The country is changing, and the republicans are in the way. The best case is that it could just force the republican party to get harder everywhere. This is the election we need if we want to see change in our lifetime. Biden is only going to be a one term president because he's righting the ship, imo.

Edited May 6, 2020 by Lord Raven

[XRay]

11 hours ago, Lord Raven said:

I'm justangry (I'm making it a point to show) and I'm genuinely curious if people have had a change of heart, or at least what their situation is if they are backing the lack of aid, lack of tests, and lack of support to Governors. And why he will deserve your vote. I have heard very very little talking about the level of misinformation from this administration and its general combativeness towards Governors admist this objectively absolute SHITSHOW -- from someone who supports him. And also wanna know why a third party vote is more preferable to four more years of this colossal shitshow.

From what my friend (moderate) told me when he discussed Trump's handling of COVID-19 with one of his friends (Trump supporter), trying to change a Trump supporters' mind is kind of pointless since regular reasoning does not work. They do not care about evidence, so anything you argue they will just dismiss it with "that source is too liberal, I do not believe it" or "that is only one mistake, he did everything else fine" or "you and the media are just finding faults in Trump cause you dislike him" or some other bull. So unless Trump physically rapes them, shoots a child in broad daylight, or do something undeniably horrible, there is no changing their minds.

Trump's appeal is not logical, it is emotional. It feels good to shout "Fuck liberals!" or "Lock her up!", but it does not feel good to think about infrastructure or policy.

[Lewyn]

18 hours ago, Lord Raven said:

1. The Republican propaganda machine will only end up suppressing a few moderates (they have zero way to cover for Trump's shortcomings in 2020) because the hate for Trump is massive. For good reason too.

The Lincoln Project is primarily classical conservatives, one of whom is Kellyanne Conway's husband, and they sent out this ad against Trump. Sentiment is growing against him, to the point where even Moscow Mitch is opposing tax cuts. If they don't send out another bunch of Trump bucks soon, that's another set of homeless people during the Trump admin.

30+ million people have lost their jobs and businesses. Trump is going to gradually become more and more unpopular. I've also said before that presidents get a ratings bump during a time of crisis -- his has not brought him up to 50% by liberal estimates (conservative estimates? idk what the right term is). that is an alarming thing for a president. Bush was at like 90% approval after 9/11, and this is way worse Fatfuck von Orangefuck is at 49%. That's stunning, honestly. A ratings bump during a crisis is just extremely common (people happy with their 1200 dollars who didn't lose their job are an easy contribution to that, as well as people receiving bailouts, etc, there's a ton of factors, but a crisis is ultimately the best way to manufacture a ratings bump, which Trump got almost nothing out of).

2. He'll be fiiiiine, he crushed Paul Ryan and he was very good with Palin in the past. Expect some verbal fisticuffs.

3. I agree we are not in a rational world, but an economic recovery won't bring back all the lost jobs. COVID is going to be a massive impact in our lives for years to come, people have lost businesses and jobs, in some cases forever. I would say, arguably, the need for an establishment is far more important than any sense of charisma. People are far more desperate in this election. For the record, thousands are dying every day to COVID, and it has no signs of letting up now that places have opened up.

Biden is actually plenty charismatic, just old. He was one of the most beloved senators in the hill simply because he is warm and friendly all-around -- listen to what Sanders and Warren have to say about him to get a feel for it. Sanders explicitly makes it a point to say that Biden was always his friend and always kind to him, and Warren recanted him saying "You gave me hell and you're gonna do a great job" when she was sworn in as senator. Whether or not he's charismatic to us is a bit up in the air, but he has the ability to make a grand coalition, to the point where he went from somewhat adversarial to Barack Obama to them being among the best of friends.

I'm also gonna reiterate that Wisconsin voters came out in droves to vote for the Democratic Governor because of COVID...  people are pissed, and the issues w/ mail-in voting (or the lack thereof) will not help matters at all.

 

By the way, where my Trump Supporters at? I still maintain that it was extremely stupid 5 years ago (I made the post five years ago) that people supported him, and I will double, triple, quintuple, 10tuple, 1000tuple down on it. He's been a fucking disaster of a president by all metrics, and this year was when the dam broke. I am in disbelief if anyone thinks otherwise. And don't try to devil's advocate; if you believe otherwise, then say it. If you don't, then don't be like "to be fair" and diminish his bullshit, because this is not the time or place for it.

 

 

EDIT: BTW I do appreciate you hammering your concerns -- there is reason for concern because the 2016 election did not go how we wanted -- so keep talking. My intent isn't to argue, I'm just trying to be positive and trying to see any new numbers and viewpoints to help polish my views, but I've never felt more sure of a candidate winning this far in advance than I do now. Literally trump will have to rig an election to win the presidency, because COVID is not going to stop just because places are reopening. The US hasn't come anywhere close to flattening the curve, and he doesn't fucking want to do tests. Wait till COVID begins to hit rural areas harder (these protests might ensure it) and people will see they've been conned, if they're not already dead.

1. I listen to right wing media radio hosts like Shapiro and Rush and watch Fox occasionally to see their perspective and stories and issues.  The world they are painting is mostly devoid from reality and that is what they are selling to millions of Americans.  They have also mastered digital advertisement/misinformation to a far far greater degree than Democrats making it easy to push their false narratives and brainwash countless people.  

Lincoln project is great and Republicans are so so much better at dirt campaign ads and maybe it can help recruit other classic conservatives who will trust such ads more than ones put forth by Democrats. 

Trump never does become more unpopular though, despite his apalling treatment of hurricane with Puerto Rico, his withholding of military aid to Ukraine to force them to investigate Biden and the resulting impeachment (in which his numbers somehow went up), his Iran attack, withdrawals from multi nation agreements, tariff wars, the Kurds, etc etc.  His numbers always remain steady.  Yes he really could shoot someone on 5th Avenue, and his numbers wouldn't be touched.  He would claim it is a hoax, or that person was a secret Chinese or Russian spy, or whatever and millions would buy the shooting as justified.  

2. Biden I'm sure will out debate Pence, which is well not exactly a challenge.  However every verbal gaff will be blown up a trillion percent to hammer home....oh Joe Biden has severe dementia, isn't all there, whatever.  Joe Rogan has the most listened to podcast, and was supporting Bernie.  However now he is supporting Trump, and ripping on Biden as senile and inept.  He doesn't like Trump and makes fun of him, but says Trump can handle the pressure and responsibilities, but Biden can't.  That somehow makes his words more convincing than if it were by a hardcore Trump supporter.  

3. The 2018 midterms and various elections have been convincing.  However Trump isn't just a Republican, he is also a figure that commands legions of loyal followers who once voted for Obama...who aren't conservatives.  Being charming with colleagues and friends is much different than being charismatic as a public speaker.  Most people will never meet or talk with Biden in person or Trump.  Trump has crazy charisma cause he sounds like a hilarious cartoon character.  Bernie could more than match that charisma, and on top of that actually sounds like he truly cares about people.  Biden is going to sound professional but stiff.  Look he has an advantage over Hillary but think back to the 2016 election and the debates.  Hillary ran circles around Trump.  It didn't matter, Trump just repeated a handful of phrases had no detailed plans and still that was enough.  

Trump now wants to just reopen things, and likely that will lead to more spikes and many more deaths.  He still doesn't have a plan, doesn't have enough testing, Fox news and Trump laugh at contact tracing.  Really before a vaccine (if that ever comes) we need tons of efficient testing and contact tracing to be able to open up.  Countries that had that prepared some didn't have to lock down at all, and their economies and people are safe.  The worst this gets the more it hurts Trump.  However Trump says he built the greatest economy ever and he is the man to rebuild it again.  

I thought Trump was a stupid piece of garbage when he strongly promoted the Birther controversy, I was like fuck this racist scumbag.  When he announced his candidacy I honestly thought he didn't have much chance to win the Republican primary, thought it was a publicity stunt.  Trump loves selling himself, and being the center of attention.  However when he won in a very strong field, I was worried back then.  When he had the power to get Fox to fire Megan kelly just cause she asked a perfectly valid question that he didn't like, it was clear how much power he had.  When I saw Hillary speak and despite her great ideas and intelligence sounded like an annoying nag that I didn't want to listen to, that she had zero charisma, my worry increased much more.  Everyone thought she had it in the bag, but never in my lifetime have a person win the presidency with zero charisma and she had the massive drawback of being a woman as well, so I thought Trump had a great chance.  It took a perfect storm for us with a hated Republican president who got us into a war that should never have happened, financial crisis, and an incredibly charismatic all time great speaker candidate for us to elect the first non white man to the presidency. 

After he won the presidency, I did think with all his blunders and showing himself inept many times it would effect his approval numbers and those that voted for him would have realized their mistake.  Obama had to be like a perfect Gary Stu and even then he would get attacked at all sides I'd never seen a president so constrained anything other than that and it woul dbe  a massive deal.  It was like hey African Americans you aren't slaves anymore but you aren't going to be treated like whites either.  Or like the first black athletes who has to be picture perfect mild members of society to be accepted at all.  Trump on the other hand is the opposite never have I seen a president so unrestrained, so able to do and say whatever he wants without any consequence.  His followers are devoted more than the most religious are devoted to their god.  Many who aren't Trump fans or anti Trump don't trust any of the media anyways cause the divide has become so large.  

The right wing media are not the Republican media anymore but the Trump media.  It is like Russian state TV for Putin.  A great way to control the country and brainwash anyone who gets their news mostly from such sources.  Considering all this I can't be optimistic, not to mention by hook or crook the GOP will do anything to win.  Bill Maher has been saying for years as well, if Trump does lose will he actually leave?  Those few months after the election and before the next president takes office, what will a crazy loon like Trump do?  Trump can simply say the results are fake or it was a conspiracy and wants long investigations that take years and before that he won't leave office.  Then what happens?  Do the secret service/military remove him?  I haven't heard any official answer.  Oh and will the GOP actually stand up to him at that time?  A few like Romney might, but the majority will likely stick in his corner.  

 

[Lord Raven]

16 minutes ago, Lewyn said:

Joe Rogan has the most listened to podcast, and was supporting Bernie.  However now he is supporting Trump, and ripping on Biden as senile and inept.  He doesn't like Trump and makes fun of him, but says Trump can handle the pressure and responsibilities, but Biden can't.  That somehow makes his words more convincing than if it were by a hardcore Trump supporter.  

Bro what the fuck

That isn't aimed at you. I'm just amazed that someone like Rogan could stoop that low. What a fucking moron. Thankfully Howard Stern told Trump to drink bleach and gave Biden his unequivocal support.

Either way, I think the results and deaths will speak for themselves. The propaganda machine will break down in a few months with the weight of the bullshit. There really is a reckoning coming.

There are arguments of various eras of single-party or single-philosophy rule. Republicans basically had the presidency from Lincoln up until the Great Depression, then the Democrats had it from mostly FDR up until LBJ (with Ike Eisenhower being of similar platform to the Democrats). Then Republicans had it from Nixon mostly until now, with Clinton being of a third way platform between conservative and liberal Democrats, Carter being more conservative at the time than Republicans, and then Obama being this black liberal Jesus, and back to Trump. I think the wars and pestilence are simply too unsustainable for propaganda to work at this point.

21 minutes ago, Lewyn said:

Bill Maher has been saying for years as well, if Trump does lose will he actually leave?  Those few months after the election and before the next president takes office, what will a crazy loon like Trump do?  Trump can simply say the results are fake or it was a conspiracy and wants long investigations that take years and before that he won't leave office.  Then what happens?  Do the secret service/military remove him?  I haven't heard any official answer. 

Given the amount of bullshit up at the top, and the amount of internal struggles within Trump's cabinet, I don't think security will be loyal to Trump. If he refuses the results of the election, he will likely be shot on the spot on January 20th, 2021 if he does not vacate the white house.

At this point, anyone who's of sound mind not voting Biden is an active detriment, and I think Trump will fuck things up worse in 6 months to the point where he will get blown the fuck out. Between Iraq and COVID-19, we need to guarantee the Republican Party does not leave 2020 alive, or in its current form. I actually believe at this point that because the Republicans refuse to act on any of the current issues that we will see a massive MASSIVE blue wave that will last for decades because the dangers of incompetence will linger until people forget what our current times feel like.

[Dr. Tarrasque]

2 hours ago, Lord Raven said:

Given the amount of bullshit up at the top, and the amount of internal struggles within Trump's cabinet, I don't think security will be loyal to Trump. If he refuses the results of the election, he will likely be shot on the spot on January 20th, 2021 if he does not vacate the white house.

Eh who knows. With each stooge that is removed from his cabinet or whatever their position is, they just get replaced with someone more loony and loyal as well as Trump having gotten away with so much already, can't imagine there being someone with the balls to actually shoot him but it certainly would be great if it came to that and the shooter was someone that was a huge supporter.

2 hours ago, Lord Raven said:

At this point, anyone who's of sound mind not voting Biden is an active detriment

Only in the case of Swing states.

2 hours ago, Lord Raven said:

Between Iraq and COVID-19, we need to guarantee the Republican Party does not leave 2020 alive, or in its current form.

Hahahah, that's what I've been saying for some time here and everywhere I've discussed politics. It's impossible to avoid being seen as partisan when saying stuff like this no matter how much evidence is provided. The propaganda machine will be kept alive by all the partisan people that exist, It is super easy for right-wing media to latch onto viewers due to how self-destructively stupid folks on the left can be.

2 hours ago, Lord Raven said:

I actually believe at this point that because the Republicans refuse to act on any of the current issues that we will see a massive MASSIVE blue wave that will last for decades because the dangers of incompetence will linger until people forget what our current times feel like.

I'll believe it when I see it. Republicans have been shameless in their support of Trump and to think that they'll change their vote with the right-wing media's mud-slinging at Biden and their willingness to ignore anything Trump does wrong seems foolishly optimistic. On the plus the side, it does seem like the Senate being taken from the Republicans is a possibility during this cycle and that would be great. 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Dr. Tarrasque

[Zapp Branniglenn]

2 hours ago, Lord Raven said:

Given the amount of bullshit up at the top, and the amount of internal struggles within Trump's cabinet, I don't think security will be loyal to Trump. If he refuses the results of the election, he will likely be shot on the spot on January 20th, 2021 if he does not vacate the white house.

 

19 minutes ago, Dr. Tarrasque said:

Eh who knows. With each stooge that is removed from his cabinet or whatever their position is, they just get replaced with someone more loony and loyal as well as Trump having gotten away with so much already, can't imagine there being someone with the balls to actually shoot him but it certainly would be great if it came to that and the shooter was someone that was a huge supporter.

You can physically remove somebody without, y'know, killing them. If if takes dragging them out, then that's what it takes. It doesn't have to look pretty, but you want it to be cleaner than a funeral. Christ would we have a problem if Trump was murdered, or dies in general before his term is up. He could die of a heart attack and we'd have Russian backed insurgents blowing up "sanctuary cities" in the name of justice for Trump's "assassination". As horrible as the man is alive, he'd be worse as a martyr.

[Lord Raven]

2 hours ago, Dr. Tarrasque said:

Eh who knows. With each stooge that is removed from his cabinet or whatever their position is, they just get replaced with someone more loony and loyal as well as Trump having gotten away with so much already, can't imagine there being someone with the balls to actually shoot him but it certainly would be great if it came to that and the shooter was someone that was a huge supporter.

Security isn't part of the cabinet. I was exaggerating with the shoot them on the spot -- I'm fucking furious at Donald Cunt beyond all belief (as I have been for four straight years, because fuck him) -- but the premise remains the same.

2 hours ago, Dr. Tarrasque said:

Only in the case of Swing states.

Even in states with Democrat and Republican majorities. In D-strong states, there needs to be assurance of 30 point wins, not 10-15 point wins. That alone would castrate the party.

In swing and weak states -- well, if every D-leaner came out to vote in Texas, it would swing Texas to the Democrats. Given right now the polling makes Texas look purple, and given time it'll get worse for the Rs.

2 hours ago, Dr. Tarrasque said:

Hahahah, that's what I've been saying for some time here and everywhere I've discussed politics. It's impossible to avoid being seen as partisan when saying stuff like this no matter how much evidence is provided. The propaganda machine will be kept alive by all the partisan people that exist, It is super easy for right-wing media to latch onto viewers due to how self-destructively stupid folks on the left can be.

I don't care about appearing partisan here. It's very obvious that there's only two parties; the big tent and the Republicans. Wipe out the Republicans, split the Democrats, or force the Republicans to oppose the Democrats from the center or left as opposed to whatever the fuck kind of cult they're in now.

2 hours ago, Dr. Tarrasque said:

I'll believe it when I see it. Republicans have been shameless in their support of Trump and to think that they'll change their vote with the right-wing media's mud-slinging at Biden and their willingness to ignore anything Trump does wrong seems foolishly optimistic. On the plus the side, it does seem like the Senate being taken from the Republicans is a possibility during this cycle and that would be great. 

I've posted a few breaks from Trump -- namely that Lindsay Graham has come to Biden's support to support Biden's character, as well as McConnell refusing tax cuts. It'll happen if the Trump brand is too toxic to keep alive. Right now it's a zombie. People aren't so brainwashed that in 6 months and a couple hundred thousand deaths later they'll elect to keep Trump in office.

[eclipse]

3 hours ago, Lord Raven said:

I've posted a few breaks from Trump -- namely that Lindsay Graham has come to Biden's support to support Biden's character, as well as McConnell refusing tax cuts. It'll happen if the Trump brand is too toxic to keep alive. Right now it's a zombie. People aren't so brainwashed that in 6 months and a couple hundred thousand deaths later they'll elect to keep Trump in office.

We have people protesting the lockdown.  I can link news articles that have comments that show the mentality of some of these guys.

Reason won't work on them.

[Lord Raven]

Yeah, but once those people get sick and their rural hospitals are too overloaded to deal with a pandemic... and once they refuse the vaccine (which, by the way, is an even scarier thought right now because Trump wants Kushner to get one developed by December and if Trump fucks up a vaccine it helps the anti-vax argument a lot more than you want).

[Etrurian emperor]

So with everyone distracted by Corona the Trump administration quickly decided to shield one of their cronies from justice. The case against former security advisor Flynn is officially dropped. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/politics/michael-flynn-case-dropped.html