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I think the most likely scenario in which we know the winner tonight is a Biden victory in Florida. Pennsylvania is also obviously an important state this election and Biden is polling even better there, but they have a lot of restrictions on counting that make it highly unlikely they'll call a winner so quickly. It may even appear red at some point due to most of the votes counted tonight being in person rather than mailed in. Many states process mail in ballots weeks before election day for expediency, but Pennsylvania is required by law to wait until this morning. And some districts explicitly won't at all until polling places close for the night. 

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There are times in world history when a monster of epic proportions can get into power and destroy democracy.  Trump is that monster for the US and like Mussolini in his first couple of years he has greatly eroded the government and checks and balances.  A second Trump term will be the end of democracy and freedom.  It is so obvious.

The latest 538 poll has Trump's chance of winning at 10%, it really should be less than 1%.  Can't believe how many people he has suckered into supporting him.  Fire Fauci!  Lock her up (Gretchen Whitmer)!  Lock them up! (The Bidens).  This is how these degenerates talk like.  Full of hate and venom and hanging on Trump's every word.  Let these dreggs of society sulk back under the rocks from whence they came and vote Trump out!

 

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WHY FLORIDA

WHY?

EDIT: It's a must-win for Trump and not for Biden so I'm still optimistic but this happens EVERY TIME

Edited by Crysta

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1 hour ago, Crysta said:

WHY FLORIDA

WHY?

EDIT: It's a must-win for Trump and not for Biden so I'm still optimistic but this happens EVERY TIME

538 puts it now at a 33% chance of a Trump victory.😬😬😬😬😬

Hispanic and African-American males might be to blame.

 

To be born and raised into a place of freedom and knowledge, to not be but an illiterate peasant who never saw more than 5 miles from their fields. This fear, this dread, this expectation of the most terrible, such is the price. I am left to wonder, how do those long born and raised in countries more restrained, bear with the authoritarian vileness of their government? At least the eras of pastoral outsiders coming in hordes and laying waste to cities and all therein, is no more.

...Sorry to wax poetic. Though it should help us remember that if we are to suffer, others unfortunately share in our plight too, and have for a very long time. And that, although the modern state is capable of unimaginable atrocities, things have gotten a little better over time. You'd just hope the arrow of history is always pointing in the right direction.

Edited by Interdimensional Observer

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So in the last hour, we've seen Biden's three point lead in Florida reverse to a three point lead for Trump. According to what I've read it seems like the difference between absentee ballots (which were counted before today) being mixed in with results from today. And that we may already be seeing the same phenomenon in North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. So don't be taken in by blue red herrings, even if a state seems as much as 70-80% reported.

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4 minutes ago, Glennstavos said:

So in the last hour, we've seen Biden's three point lead in Florida reverse to a three point lead for Trump. According to what I've read it seems like the difference between absentee ballots (which were counted before today) being mixed in with results from today. And that we may already be seeing the same phenomenon in North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. So don't be taken in by blue red herrings, even if a state seems as much as 70-80% reported.

Looks like Trump is taking North Carolina, 538 is putting it closer to 50-50 now.😱

How did the polling go wrong? 

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52 minutes ago, UNLEASH IT said:

How long is this gonna take? Will all the results come out tonight?

Actual counting: We have to deal with time zones.  West coast is still open for another half hour or so, and no one cares about Alaska/Hawaii.

Results: Doesn't matter, they'll be contested.

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3 minutes ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

Looks like Trump is taking North Carolina, 538 is putting it closer to 50-50 now.😱

How did the polling go wrong? 

I know that polling projections suggested a huge boost in turnout, so I'm curious if that turned out to be reality. Florida seems to answer this in the affirmative. And more participation is typically good news for the Democratic party no matter where you are. I was anticipating better results for Biden by this point. If he can hold Ohio and North Carolina, that alone should be definitive. Arizona is another swing state coming up.

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1 hour ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

538 puts it now at a 33% chance of a Trump victory.😬😬😬😬😬

Hispanic and African-American males might be to blame.

lol Hillary performed better than Biden has

I know they have a Cuban-American population that the other swing states don't that trends conservative (THANKS CASTRO) so I really shouldn't be surprised that Florida is the perennial blue red herring. Texas may be a marginally better bet but I keep reminding myself that they've elected and re-elected Cruz.

EDIT: Outside of Florida I think my map is going to be accurate. It'll come down to Wisconsin/Michigan/Pennsylvania.

Edited by Crysta

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Vegas has shifted to Trump being an overwhelming favorite.  I hope you planned your exit strategies.  It's still early, but it looks really bad thusfar.

The truth doesn't matter, being civil doesn't matter, and listening to experts/science doesn't matter.  Oh yeah and corruption and abuse of power don't matter either.

 

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44 minutes ago, Lewyn said:

Vegas has shifted to Trump being an overwhelming favorite.  I hope you planned your exit strategies.  It's still early, but it looks really bad thusfar.

The truth doesn't matter, being civil doesn't matter, and listening to experts/science doesn't matter.  Oh yeah and corruption and abuse of power don't matter either.

 

Well, it's an lose-lose situation, if you think about it. The best thing to do is to ride it out and hope that the next two nominees actually have something to offer.

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When can be expected an exact result, if no one will reach 270 electors today?

I just heared it will take multiple days, till postal votes will be count in certain states.

 

So far nothing really has changed compared to last election.

Arizona might become blue from what I've heared, but Idk if this would be enough for Biden to win, if all others states will remain with the same result as in the last election.

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Florida has people ready to leap off the ledge already lol

We may have to wait until Friday for a winner, people, chill out.

EDIT: AZ is going blue

EDIT2: look at Georgia

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MORE FUN

(Stop stressing out, it can change on a dime.)

Edited by Crysta

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2 hours ago, Kasumi Yoshizawa said:

When can be expected an exact result, if no one will reach 270 electors today?

Georgia, Wisconsin and Michigan are finishing later than expected, but claim they should finish sometime tomorrow. North Carolina is a question mark because they will be accepting absentee ballots as late as Nov 12, but if the remainder is as small as some sources suggest it may be called any moment now. It's starting to look more and more likely that the answer lies within Pennsylvania and some educated guesses say Friday is the earliest we get their results.

Edit: Actually, mathing it out a bit, If Biden takes Michigan, Wisconsin, and all of Maine's votes in addition to Arizona and Nevada, it adds up to 271 and we won't need to see Georgia, North Carolina, or Pennsylvania.

Edited by Glennstavos

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Hawaii's not scheduled to post their first count for another hour (not that anyone has any doubt  as to which way Hawaii's electoral votes are going).  This will take a while!

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The fact that it's this close after everything that's happened these past four years paints a pretty bleak picture about our country.

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Trump just went on TV and claimed victory. 

Edit: also that he wants all vote counting to stop

This election is going to go to the courts.

Edited by Excellen Browning

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6 minutes ago, Excellen Browning said:

Trump just went on TV and claimed victory. 

This election is going to go to the courts.

Wow

Just wow

What a goddamn fucknugget

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There was a lot of pre-election litigation that went on and was decided that will make that difficult, thankfully, regardless of his bluster.

EDIT: That said, I don't think we're getting the Senate. If we do it'll be barely.

Edited by Crysta

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I've been looking around trying to find out if there's any idea of the scale of absentee/mail-in ballots that have yet to be counted.

Does anyone have a clue on that? Want to figure out how long this ride lasts.

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ya'll be doomsaying way too soon

(Wisconsin is leaning Biden now)

EDIT: omg las vegas what are you doing

Edited by Crysta

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41 minutes ago, Crysta said:

ya'll be doomsaying way too soon

(Wisconsin is leaning Biden now)

EDIT: omg las vegas what are you doing

What exactly is Las Vegas doing? I'm a bit more drunk than i usually ever let myself get (re: I never ever have gotten even tipsy before) and I'm having a hard time finding anything that isn't from hours prior.

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