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1 hour ago, Diovani Bressan said:

Looks like young Marth's weapon is Rapier, and unless it's a special version... It may be the same as Phina.

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Just to remember what Rapier does: "Effective against armored and cavalry foes. Grants Spd+3. If unit’s HP ≤ 75% and foe initiates combat, unit can counterattack before foe's first attack."

Of course, could be a special version of Rapier, just like how there are Three versions of Armads... But OG Rapier would be pretty good.

Probably a special version like "Noble Rapier". Special Heroes have always had unique weapons, personal or not. 

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3 minutes ago, Othin said:

Probably a special version like "Noble Rapier". Special Heroes have always had unique weapons, personal or not. 

I wouldn't be surprised if he also has Fire Emblem as Special... Even though it's a younger version of Marth that probably doesn't know what Fire Emblem is.

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For those who are going for the guaranteed 5* after 40 summons, do you guys do full summons to minimize Orb costs, do you still snipe for a color, or do you do something in between where you summon from all colors except the color that demotes?

I think I am planning to do the latter where I summon everything except colorless. It will not be as cost efficient on Orbs, but I also would not waste any Orbs on a unit that I could get in the 3*/4* pool later.

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I'm not going for the guaranteed 5* for any banner just yet, but hypothetically I think I would start by sniping, the objective being to maximise the probability of ending up with a +1 copy of my desired unit after the ~150 orbs, since +1 is generally the goal for any unit I intend on actively using. If I got my desired unit early then I might switch to full rounds (sans the 3-4* demote colour).

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20 minutes ago, mampfoid said:

@XRay Aren't chances higher to get the 4* version of Forest first? I'd pull on colorless until you get one copy or until you reach a high pity rate. 

I do not mind getting Forrest, I just do not want to get the 5* version. I guess it is not that bad getting the 5* version when pity rate is still low, but that pity rate could have been saved for something a more worthwhile unit later.

19 minutes ago, Humanoid said:

I'm not going for the guaranteed 5* for any banner just yet, but hypothetically I think I would start by sniping, the objective being to maximise the probability of ending up with a +1 copy of my desired unit after the ~150 orbs, since +1 is generally the goal for any unit I intend on actively using. If I got my desired unit early then I might switch to full rounds (sans the 3-4* demote colour).

I see. I guess it depends on what the player needs. Since I am getting the guaranteed 5* and it seems like it is going to be neutral locked, I am not too concerned with getting the +1 merge since there are no Flaws to fix.

— — — — — — —

I used @mampfoid's method, since the Orb savings makes more sense and getting pity broken early is not that bad.

I got SM!Eirika and Forrest as pity breaking 5* units. Forrest pity broke me towards the end when the rate was 3.25%, so I it is not bad. I used my guaranteed 5* summon on Lilith, and she is neutral, so I am 90% sure the guaranteed 5* unit is neutral for everyone too; and when you tapon the Orb, it shows you the copy of the unit too and it is neutral.

Edited by XRay
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I haven't yet decided if I'm pulling on this banner. If I do, I'll stick to blue like normal - I don't care enough about any of the others. Maybe some green if I get close to 40 pulls, but only if I'm sure I don't need anything else soon. Probably holding off from anything until we get the next trailer. 

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28 minutes ago, Othin said:

I haven't yet decided if I'm pulling on this banner. If I do, I'll stick to blue like normal - I don't care enough about any of the others. Maybe some green if I get close to 40 pulls, but only if I'm sure I don't need anything else soon. Probably holding off from anything until we get the next trailer. 

The banner ends on April 30th, which is probably the same day the Legendary Banner starts, so you can check the units on that banner. The 30th Anniversary seasonal banner is also coming.

Or at least, you could wait for the Calendar to show up, so you can see what is coming and decide.

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45 minutes ago, Diovani Bressan said:

The banner ends on April 30th, which is probably the same day the Legendary Banner starts, so you can check the units on that banner. The 30th Anniversary seasonal banner is also coming.

Or at least, you could wait for the Calendar to show up, so you can see what is coming and decide.

Yeah, I'm not as worried about the rest of those though, just the anniversary seasonal. Right now, I want to save up orbs for Bride Fjorm - I don't think the others are likely to have anything I need much right now and even if they do, it'll be easy enough to wait a few months for another good chance. 

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10 minutes ago, Othin said:

Yeah, I'm not as worried about the rest of those though, just the anniversary seasonal. Right now, I want to save up orbs for Bride Fjorm - I don't think the others are likely to have anything I need much right now and even if they do, it'll be easy enough to wait a few months for another good chance. 

Yeah. Bride Fjorm would be something that I would spending my orbs.

I have two Bride Fjorms: one for Light seasons, and another one for Anima. However, the light seasons one is -HP, so I would like to fix that.

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@XRay The way I look at it, the reason a person would want to aim for the free summon is because there is at least one hero out of the four that they want, though now we'd have to say one hero out of the three since one unit of the four will always be a 4* summon, ergo they'll have been summoned at least once by the time one reaches the 40th summon.

If you're aiming for the 40th summon freebie, then you probably already know who it is you want to summon, and unless plans change because, for instance, you summoned the hero you wanted on the way, you generally won't even need to second guess your pick. As such, I'd believe that there's no reason to be picky about orb colors.

The ONLY reason I can think of to want to snipe orb colors is because you plan to +10 merge the unit of your decision, thus the 40th summon free-wait what is it people called it, sparking?
...thus the sparking unit will just lighten the summoners load a bit.

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21 minutes ago, Xenomata said:

@XRay The way I look at it, the reason a person would want to aim for the free summon is because there is at least one hero out of the four that they want, though now we'd have to say one hero out of the three since one unit of the four will always be a 4* summon, ergo they'll have been summoned at least once by the time one reaches the 40th summon.

If you're aiming for the 40th summon freebie, then you probably already know who it is you want to summon, and unless plans change because, for instance, you summoned the hero you wanted on the way, you generally won't even need to second guess your pick. As such, I'd believe that there's no reason to be picky about orb colors.

The ONLY reason I can think of to want to snipe orb colors is because you plan to +10 merge the unit of your decision, thus the 40th summon free-wait what is it people called it, sparking?
...thus the sparking unit will just lighten the summoners load a bit.

I just do not want summon a drop unit cause those Orbs could have been used on something else. I want my Orbs to go towards having the most 5* exclusive units as possible.

The method I plan to go forward with is to do full summons for the first 3 or 4 circles, and then skip the drop color for the rest of the way to 40 summons. If my pity rate is above 4% after 40 summons, I will break it. If it is under 4%, I leave it be.

Edited by XRay
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30 minutes ago, XRay said:

I just do not want summon a drop unit cause those Orbs could have been used on something else. I want my Orbs to go towards having the most 5* exclusive units as possible.

The other thing to consider, now that I think about it, is that the majority of players will probably NOT be buying orbs if they can help it, stockpiling for months just waiting for the banner where the one unit they've always wanted finally appears. So for those players, who cares how many Forrests you get at 5* if it means getting even one Lilith?

But if you're BUYING orbs... then yeah who cares how many orbs get wasted, go for broke bro.

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7 minutes ago, Xenomata said:

The other thing to consider, now that I think about it, is that the majority of players will probably NOT be buying orbs if they can help it, stockpiling for months just waiting for the banner where the one unit they've always wanted finally appears. So for those players, who cares how many Forrests you get at 5* if it means getting even one Lilith?

But if you're BUYING orbs... then yeah who cares how many orbs get wasted, go for broke bro.

Good point. I have not thought about it that way before.

Yeah, as a paying player, I do not mind wasting Orbs in terms summoning extra 5* exclusive units, but I do care about the efficiency of turning those Orbs into 5* exclusive units.

A free player might not care about the efficiency of obtaining 5* exclusive units, and probably care more about the cost of getting a guaranteed 5* unit.

Edited by XRay
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44 minutes ago, XRay said:

Good point. I have not thought about it that way before.

Yeah, as a paying player, I do not mind wasting Orbs in terms summoning extra 5* exclusive units, but I do care about the efficiency of turning those Orbs into 5* exclusive units.

A free player might not care about the efficiency of obtaining 5* exclusive units, and probably care more about the cost of getting a guaranteed 5* unit.

It's more complicated than that. Like, if I just want Lilith, I can guarantee getting her in 135 orbs by pulling every color while sniping blue could take as long as 175 orbs, but if I snipe blue, the average orbs I'll spend on the banner should be less since I'm like four times as likely to get Lilith before the 40-pull mark. 

...At least, I think the math works out that way? I'd have to calculate more to be certain. And of course a lot of people do even less math than that. 

Maybe it's best to start sniping a color, then add others as you get closer to 40 pulls. Hmm.

Edited by Othin
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2 hours ago, Xenomata said:

But if you're BUYING orbs... then yeah who cares how many orbs get wasted, go for broke bro.

Money is not unlimited, so efficiency still matters if you're buying orbs. However, because I value the characters I'm sniping for significantly higher than I value the other characters, it's still worth my money to spend the additional orbs to try to get more copies of the characters I'm sniping for.

Every orb spent on a color that isn't the same color as that of the characters you're sniping for is an orb spent with a 0% chance of getting what you want, after all.

Edited by Ice Dragon
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28 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

Money is not unlimited, so efficiency still matters if you're buying orbs. However, because I value the characters I'm sniping for significantly higher than I value the other characters, it's still worth my money to spend the additional orbs to try to get more copies of the characters I'm sniping for.

Every orb spent on a color that isn't the same color as that of the characters you're sniping for is an orb spent with a 0% chance of getting what you want, after all.

Assuming you begin a banner with 0 orbs (which is silly, even day 1 one would have access to at least 23 orbs from the new maps, new hero log-in bonus, and Forging Bonds first-clear-of-the-day bonus), you'd have to buy the $75 usd orb pack if you wanted the Sparking hero immediately. However, i hypothesize one could buy the $75 usd pack and afford to ignore the orb color matching the 4* unit without having the buy anymore orbs.

Man, would we even be having this conversation if they'd just make the demote units worth a damn...? Even Dragalia Lost, another Nintendo-supported phoneapp game, some of the strongest new heroes in the game are either free or are fairly common in the summoning pool.

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I wonder if the calendar is coming tonight. Would be nice to know what other banners we are getting this month so I can decide between summoning for Midori's Spendthrift Bow or see if Sirius might show up on a banner soon.

Edited by NSSKG151
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Hmm. So, with no pity rate, any given orb (before its color is determined) has a 0.75% chance of being each focus unit. That means a given session has about a 3.69% chance of having that focus unit somewhere in it.

Player A wants one copy of Lilith, and decides to do the 40 summons by spending 135 orbs on 8 full pulls, stopping early if they hit Lilith. On those 8 sessions, Lilith has about a 26% chance of showing up early. This means a 74% chance of spending the full 135 orbs, or a 26% chance of getting to stop somewhere in the middle.

Player B also wants one copy of Lilith, and decides to do the 40 summons by spending up to 175 orbs on sniping blue, stopping early if they hit Lilith. Since they're only taking about 1/4 of the summons that show up, let's say it takes 32 summoning sessions instead of 8, which I think is not exactly right but seems close enough. Starting 32 sessions costs 160 orbs, 5 free summons saves 25 orbs, 8 more mid-session summons costs another 32, so that's 167 orbs. Over the course of those 32 sessions, Lilith has about a 70% chance of showing up early. This means a 30% chance of spending the full 167 orbs, or a 70% chance of getting to stop somewhere in the middle.

"Stopping somewhere in the middle" covers a whole range of options, but let's say it averages out to spending about half the full orb total. Again, that's wrong but should be close enough to right. So, Player A has a 74% chance of spending 135 orbs and a 26% chance of stopping midway at an average of 67.5 orbs, which works out to an overall average of 117.4 orbs. Player B has a 30% chance of spending 167 orbs and a 70% chance of stopping midway at an average of 83.5 orbs, which works out to an overall average of 108.55 orbs.

So Player B is still spending fewer orbs, but it's not actually that big of a difference. Interesting.

Let's introduce Player C, who's willing to pull two colors. So that's like 16 sessions, which costs like 151 orbs. Lilith has a 45% chance of showing up early and dropping that to like 75.5, and a 55% chance of not doing that. That works out to an overall average of 117.025 orbs. That's... surprisingly close to Player A. Huh.

Player D would pull all three colors that don't have a demote. I was going to do them third, but they run into the issue of averaging 10.67 sessions, and I didn't feel like figuring out to handle that earlier, and I still don't now. At a glance, I think Player D might end up with the highest average orb cost, even though I think their overall orbs-to-premium-units rate would be the highest of the bunch (since they're pulling all three colors that have a premium focus unit and skipping the one that doesn't). Speaking of which, that raises the question of what that rate would look like for the other three players as well. But I've stretched this hacked-together estimation as far as I really want to for now, to be honest.

1 hour ago, Xenomata said:

Man, would we even be having this conversation if they'd just make the demote units worth a damn...? Even Dragalia Lost, another Nintendo-supported phoneapp game, some of the strongest new heroes in the game are either free or are fairly common in the summoning pool.

Yes. There are lots of demotes I've been immediately interested in, but I still have a policy of not considering them a valid reason to pull for a color because I know they'll show up eventually.

2 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

Money is not unlimited, so efficiency still matters if you're buying orbs. However, because I value the characters I'm sniping for significantly higher than I value the other characters, it's still worth my money to spend the additional orbs to try to get more copies of the characters I'm sniping for.

Every orb spent on a color that isn't the same color as that of the characters you're sniping for is an orb spent with a 0% chance of getting what you want, after all.

To be fair, it's a bit more complicated now. For example, if you're sniping for a unit you only need one of and you hit 39/40 midway through a session with no more orbs of their color available, you can spend 3-4 more orbs on an pull of the wrong color and then get them as your free pull, or you can go to the next session, spend 5 orbs on a pull that's probably the right color, and get them one way or another. That one seems like it'd be worth it if you could have the wrong-color orb be your current second-most wanted unit, because either way, if you get a focus unit on your last pull you'd get one of your top two and then use the free summon for the other, just with one approach saving 1-2 orbs. But if not, it raises the question of if you consider the small orb savings worth the difference between the less-wanted colors.

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Eliwood looks super nice.

Still won't get the Feh Pass, but man. This really makes me wish that characters with meh art could get their regular art upgraded without it having to be Zenith-ized. You know, I'd like regular Eliwood redone with his Blazing Sword clothes instead of the Askr outfit, as nice as the latter is.

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