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Spent 50-60 orbs on CYL3-4, and between those and the first two CYLs I had decent luck, picking up:

Brave Ike +Res -HP
Brave Lucina +Def -Res

Neutral OG Ephraim
+Def -Atk Brave Hector

+Atk -Spd Brave Lysithea
+HP -Atk Brave Edelgard

 

CYL5, the one that actually meant something, was a complete and unmitigated disaster. I did seven full rounds and got the following:

+HP -Spd Nils

That's it. To add insult to injury, he was on the final ticket circle too so he smashed my pity rate. Now I'm clean out of orbs, though I do still have about 100 from Story maps to get. Not sure what my plan is, I'll probably just summon intermittently on the banner over the next three weeks hoping to get something, maybe just sniping Blue and Grey until I do. Then if nothing happens there's the sparkable re-run in about a month I believe? Unfortunate though because after two solid months back I'm feeling done with the game again and was hoping I could just get Eirika now and bail.

Edited by Humanoid
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Free pulls only

1st CYL: 
B!Lucina (First one, missing only Roy to have them all, next year hopefully)

2nd CYL:
Nothing, I was aiming at Hector for merges.

3rd CYL:
B!Alm (First one, I got all collection!)

4th CYL:
Nothing, Aiming was at either Lystheia or Claude.

5Th CYL:
Random Tiki
B!Eirika! Now she is +3

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Pulled for the spark and then stopped for CYL 1-3. Pulled for the spark and then cleaned up the pity rate for CYL 4 and 5.

CYL 1: I have all units at +10, so I did full sessions and sparked for fodder. 40 pulls:

  • Caineghis (4-star SR), already +10 if I merge my spare copies
  • Mystery Tiki (4-star SR), already +10
  • Catherine, now +4 if I merge my spare copies
  • Sanaki (4-star SR), already +10
  • Brave Lyn, already +10
  • Brave Ike (spark), already +10

CYL 2: I have all units at +10, so I did full sessions and sparked for fodder. 40 pulls:

  • Annette, now +4 if I merge my spare copies
  • Brave Lyn (4-star SR), already +10
  • Brave Veronica (spark), already +10

CYL 3: I have Micaiah already at +10. Alm was the next closest at +7, so I just sniped red. 40 pulls:

  • Hubert (4-star SR), now +5 if I merge my spare copies
  • Brave Alm, now +8
  • Mystery Tiki (4-star SR), already +10
  • Elincia (4-star SR), already +10
  • Adrift Camilla (4-star SR), now +5
  • Brave Alm, now +9
  • Brave Alm (spark), now +10

CYL 4: I have Edelgard as my highest merged at +9, so I decided to pull all colors and drop green after getting Edelgard or sparking for Edelgard if I didn't get her. 53 pulls:

  • Velouria (4-star SR), already +10, but this one is my first +Spd, so it'll be my new base
  • Brave Alm (4-star SR), already +10 goddammit
  • Brave Edelgard, now +10
  • Brave Dimitri, now +2 if I merge my spare copies
  • Mahnya, now +1 if I merge (not merging because Spring Maria wants Guard Bearing from her)
  • Flayn, now +7 if I merge my spare copies
  • Brave Dimitri (spark), now +3 if I merge my spare copies
  • Brave Lysithea, now +3
  • Ferry, now +1

CYL 5: I have Eirika already at +10 and 13 extra copies of her, so I skipped blue and just pulled the other colors. 47 pulls:

  • Brave Marth, now +1
  • Brave Marth, now +2
  • Gatekeeper, now +6 if I merge my spare copies
  • Brave Marth, now +3
  • Brave Marth (spark), now +4
  • Brave Marth, now +5

11 focus units in 220 pulls is 5.0%, which is below average, but only by 1 unit. 16 total 5-star units is 7.2%, which is below average by 3 units.

Alm is now +10, but I annoyingly got an extra copy on the CYL 4 banner after picking him as the spark on the CYL 3 banner.

Final merge count if I also merge my spare copies:

  • CYL 1 and 2: all +10
  • CYL 3: +10 Alm, +10 Micaiah, +2 Eliwood, +6 Camilla
  • CYL 4: +3 Dimitri, +10 Edelgard, +6 Claude, +3 Lysithea
  • CYL 5: +6 Gatekeeper, +10 Eirika, +5 Marth, +3 Marianne
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My Golden Week free pulls got me a Micaiah, an Edelgard and a Lysithea.....except only one of them was in their CYL form (it was Lysithea, the Micaiah and Edelgard were 4* Special pulls). I also got my first Karin (3*), albeit with a scuffed asset/flaw (+Res/-Spd).

Then, I did two more pulls on the Tellius kids banner. This particular set didn't have any reds or greens, but it got me another mute Soren (+Atk/-Def) and a 4* Special CYL Veronica. Can't argue with results like that.

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CYL 1-4 free summons didn't get me anything. Even though I don't plan on heavy investing into Edelgard, getting a +1 merge would be nice after all of these free pulls on green...

For the main focus I was able to get the last 8 Mariannes that I needed, and random Niime for a tank build is welcome. Normally I would HM farm a unit before foddering them, but I'm pretty lazy with that honestly and Pawns of Loki running now kind of encourages me to do it sooner than later. I got 13 5 stars in ~550 orbs so not bad.

I just read that you need to be solo for the Vulture tome to work lol.

Edited by LoneStar
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Farmed up another 80 orbs to snipe on blue, which ended my run when I was pitybroken by +Res -Atk Duessel, which was disappointing but nowhere near as disappointing as Nils. I do like him, so I'll probably give my neutral copy a merge. His circle also contained a Nagi and an Innes (both +Res -Def) as consolation prizes, which means I have three spare Nagis now, and also my first ever Cath so eh. So I'm done with Hero Fest, because it would be stupid to keep going at a chance of a CYL5 hero, when in about a month I can guarantee one.

I still may able to spark on both the CYL re-run and the Fallen banner but it's no longer as sure a thing as it was a week ago, especially if I don't have the energy to do all orb content for the coming month - I've been scaling back as it is with the non-orb content.

Edited by Humanoid
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Still nothing after 20 summons on the CYL 5 Hero Fest. The only thing of note was a 4* special +Atk Linde which puts her at +3 now (not that I'm ever gonna use her when I have like 3 or 4 blue infantry mages at +10). 

As for the weekly banners. Got a Tailtiu from the banner with M!Grima and F!Morgan, and a +Def -Spd Muspell from the Idunn one. Muspell is a pretty odd unit, but I find that kinda fun so I'm gonna build him up and see if he can put some work in AR. 

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Randomly free-summoned fallen m!Morgan on one of the weekly revival banners, which I am not complaining about but it's so random.

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Time for a bunch of pulls. Green for Weekly Revival 19.

  1. 3* Cath: Reposition fodder.

Red for Weekly Revival 47.

  1. 5* Fallen!M!Morgan: @Sunwoo, looks like we both had the same luck. +Spd/-Atk is garbage, but I already have a +3 +Atk copy. +4 it is then.

That was nice. Now for the CYL banner tickets. Blue for Year 1.

  1. 4* Tanith: No.
  2. 4* L'Arachel: No.
  3. 4* Subaki: No.
  4. 4* Seliph: No.
  5. 4* Nowi: No.

Grey for Year 2 since Veronica's the only CYL unit I still don't have.

  1. 4* Sakura: No.
  2. 4* Lissa: No.
  3. 4* Felicia: No.
  4. 4* Clarine: No.
  5. 4* Florina: No.

That sucked. Green for Year 3.

  1. 4* Arthur: No.
  2. 4* Arthur: Really?
  3. 3* Cherche: No.
  4. 3* Raven: No.
  5. 5* Eldigan: Okay. Not a great 4* Special, but it is what it is. +HP/-Spd is bad, so merge fodder for my +Spd/-Res copy.

Meh. Red for Year 4.

  1. 3* Athena: No.
  2. 3* Mae: No.
  3. 3* Bantu: No.
  4. 4* Chrom: No.
  5. 4* Serra: No.

What rotten luck. Lastly grey for Year 5.

  1. 4* Tethys: No.
  2. 4* Bartre: No.
  3. 5* August: Huh, very nice. +Atk/-Spd is a super-asset and super-flaw, so properly balanced as he would like it.
  4. 4* Matthew: No.
  5. 3* Cecilia: No.

Not too bad in the end. A new unit and a merge for a good one is about what I was hoping for today.

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+Spd Sara pity breaker on a circle with no colorless stones...ugh. I already have a +Atk one, and that's a superasset but maybe it's worth keeping the Spd one around just to be safe if the game lasts long enough to reach a refine for her?

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Well, I broke my pity rate on the Genealogy banner with a random Dedue, which I'm fine with. But I didn't pull a single Scathach, what the fuck?

At least I'll have a better shot of just randomly encountering him as a demote.

EDIT: Have I mentioned this game has a weird sense of humor?

As my free summon on the new duel skill banner, I got ... regular Laegjarn. Who has a duel skill. She's also somehow the exact same nature as my first one.

Edited by Sunwoo
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I admit, I didn't know the CYL banners were Sparks for FEHPass members only. I should have known that, but I was traveling and wasn't paying attention. Still, the CYL 5 banner was good to me. (The other ones are neglibible.) 

I got a few Illyana's, so now I can 5* +10 her when it's time (alongside Mustafa, Lex, and Seliph I believe). I got a Felicia for the same reason, an Altena which I'll probably do WAY later down the line, a Nanna so I can decide whether or not I want to 5* +10 her in the future (currently I have a 4* +10 version, so we'll see), and a Laslow I may decide to +10. (I'd personally prefer a Scathach or a 4* demote Inigo later down the line, but I've historically pulled Laslow often enough that I feel confident I could knock this out. The question then becomes if the resources are worth it.) 

 

I also got: 

Brave Marianne (I can now +5 her whenever I want/need to, but I'll probably wait until I get more copies)

Brave Lysithea (Have, don't really need)

Galzus (new)

4* Marcia (new)

4* Cath (new)

Brave Edelgard (have, don't really need)

Melady (new)

 

So, 5 5* units, two of which are new, three CYL units, two of which on the "wrong" banner despite pulling on their original banner not five minutes previously, and a good amount of progress and units for other merge projects. I'd say overall it was worth it. Do I wish I could have Sparked for that second Marianne? Absolutely! But I'll take what I got and eagerly await CYL 6. 

As an aside, I'll be failing my orb goal for this month. I wanted to end April with 650 orbs, but I'm currently around 575. I could go into my daily orb stash to recoup, but I want to save that for when it's closer to its max. I'm also not too worried, since I had planned on having to "reset" a bit due to this banner. It just happened earlier than expected. I'm positive I'll recover the orbs in no time and be back in the black by the end of May. I will also reach 700k Feathers before CYL 6 at this rate as well. I don't think I'll be able to get to 800k, but maybe by the end of that banner I'll be close. Either way, the more Feathers I have, the more Merge Projects I can complete at once, and the more space I'll end up with by the end of it all. 

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The good news: After about 1,000 orbs on her previous runs with no luck, I finally get Legendary Micaiah, and on just the 3rd pull.

The bad news: She's -Atk.

The other bad news: I wanted to get Medeus, Otr, and Mirabilis since they're all defense mythics I don't have.

Spoiler

EbaATRd.jpg

Game decided it'd be funnier to give me 5 Altinas, 1 Flavia, 3 Thorrs, and 1 Hel instead. Flavia was the only new one. At least I got Medeus. He's +Spd -Res which is probably the worst possible trait for him but luckily it won't matter.

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I went into the Mythic Hero banner with the goals of

  • 11 copies of Mediuth
  • 9 copies of Micaiah
  • +Res Elimine

with the intent of either pulling until I got two of the three or until I hit my budget for this banner, whichever came first. Getting a +Spd Hel and +Atk Otr to use as new merge bases would also be nice to have, but not prioritized.

Sniped colorless with green then blue prioritized if there were no colorless orbs.

I ended up going almost exactly up to my budget before hitting two goals within 10 pulls of each other. Then pulled for one more 5-star, which was still within budget (leaving me with 18 orbs left without going over). Total 357 pulls:

  • 10 Mediuth (+1 spark for a total of 11)
  • 7 Elimine (the last 2 were +Res, the last copy was the +1 pull at the end)
  • 4 Micaiah
  • 3 Otr (1 of which was +Atk)
  • 1 Hel (+Spd)
  • 2 Julia

27 total 5-star pulls for an 7.6% 5-star rate, which is quite a bit below average (by 3 or 4 pulls). The one time I hit a 12.5% pity rate definitely had something to do with it since, on average, you should get about 4 5-star pulls in that period instead of just 1.

I would have preferred to have gotten Micaiah to +10 instead of Mediuth. She's more generally useful, but in the end, it doesn't matter too much since I'm no longer in need of another high-scoring Wind Legendary Hero now that Sigurd is +10, and Mediuth is still usable every other week in the Arena and scores well.

I finally now have a +Res Elimine. It only took 16 copies before I got one (not including the spark on her original banner since that one was guaranteed to not be +Res).

As a bonus, I also got new merge bases for both Otr and Hel. Otr will now be +5, and Hel will now be +7.

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Time to chuck some orbs at Medeus's banner, but Duel Skills first.

  1. 3* Clair: No.

And now to see what 150 orbs can get me. Anything but red is fine.

  1. 3* Mercedes: No.
  2. 4* Setsuna: No.
  3. 4* Nanna: No.

Figures I couldn't just get lucky. 142 orbs left.

  1. 3* Nowi: No.
  2. 3* Raven: No.
  3. 4* Libra: No.
  4. 5* L!Micaiah: Very nice! +Res/-Def is quite good too.
  5. 4* Sophia: No.

Nice for one of these banners to finally be generous. I'll try one more circle for fun. 122 orbs left.

  1. 3* Florina: No.
  2. 4* Fae: No.
  3. 4* Clarine: No.

That went pretty well. 41 orbs to get a good copy of L!Micaiah is better luck than I've gotten from spending for a while.

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My luck is still bad on the Hero Fest banner. No B!Eirikas yet, but I'll keep going until the spark. 

On the Mythic banner there were no colorless stones so I went for blue and got a L!Dimitri. I'll keep this copy around until I decide on whether I'll merge or fodder. 

As for the VG banners. Got Ingrid on banner 1 and a 3* Miriel on banner 2. I like Ingrid well enough so merging her is a no brainer. 

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None of the BHB banner units are any good but I'd figured I'd go red to not get spooked by a 3-4* pool unit. But there weren't any reds so it had to be blue.

+Atk -Def Zeke

Woah. Now I need to decide whether to merge my old +HP -Spd one in, or fodder one off since he appears to be a goldmine of skills. I don't really use enemy phase units anymore because with skill inflation it's now too hard for me to judge who'd engagements, but Zeke works well in both phases so that's not a big deal. But then as a player-phase unit he's more or less duplicating Duessel and Legendary Ephraim in terms of function. Hmm.

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Time for more pulls. Blue for Chivalric Struggle 1.

  1. 5* Nyx: Okay. I can't complain about that. I can complain about her being +Res/-Atk though.

An interesting free 5*. Blue again for Chivalric Struggle 2.

  1. 3* Mathilda: No.

Red for Weekly Revival 6.

  1. 4* Lon'qu: No.

Green for Weekly Revival 20.

  1. 5* Ayra: Not bad at all. +Atk/-HP is good, but I already have a +2 +Spd copy. +3 it is then.

Is this my luck returning? Grey for the Picnic banner.

  1. 3* Hawkeye: No.

Blue for the BHB banner.

  1. 3* Miriel: No.

And now to splurge on the Menace banner because Morgan and Morgan need more merges! 174 orbs on hand.

Spoiler
  1. 4* Palla: No.
  2. 3* Cath: Reposition fodder.

Again. 170 orbs left.

  1. 4* Raigh: No.

165 orbs left.

  1. 4* Ogma: No.
  2. 3* Hawkeye: No.
  3. 3* Luthier: No.

152 orbs left.

  1. 3* Frederick: No.

I think the game is making fun of me. 147 orbs left.

  1. 4* Stahl: No.
  2. 3* Balthus: No.
  3. 3* Basilio: No.
  4. 5* B!Ephraim: A decent 4* Special. +HP/-Spd is fine, but I'd rather keep my +2 +Def copy. +3 now.
  5. 5* Zeke: Sure, give me the one focus unit I wasn't aiming for...+Def/-HP gives a super-asset, so I think I'll keep this copy and merge my current +Atk/-HP copy in.

This is becoming a generally profitable session, but I have two specific targets in mind...127 orbs left.

  1. 4* Olivia: No.
  2. 4* Arthur: No.
  3. 3* Titania: No.
  4. 4* Cherche: No.

110 orbs left.

  1. 3* Lon'qu: No.

105 orbs left.

  1. 3* Silvia: No.

100 orbs left.

  1. 4* Hinata: No.
  2. 3* Silvia: No.
  3. 3* Reyson: No.

87 orbs left.

  1. 4* Seth: No.
  2. 4* Selena: Reposition fodder.

78 orbs left.

  1. 3* Chrom: No.
  2. 5* Fallen!Mareeta: A 4* Special that's not quite right...+Res/-HP is trash, but I already have a +1 +Spd copy. Merge time.
  3. 4* Bartre: No.

65 orbs left.

  1. 3* Sophia: No.
  2. 5* Nagi: Okay? +Atk/-Spd is the exact same as my current copy, so merge time it is.
  3. 5* Fallen!F!Morgan: There we go! +Res/-HP isn't great, so merge fodder for my +3 +HP copy.
  4. 4* Boey: No.
  5. 4* Soren: No.

That went very well. 129 orbs netted me:

  1. B!Ephraim merge (4* Special)
  2. Fallen!Mareeta merge (4* Special)
  3. Nagi merge 
  4. Zeke merge
  5. Fallen!F!Morgan merge

Combined with the two freebies earlier this has been an extremely profitable session. I'll try my luck one more time on the Mythic banner. 45 orbs left.

  1. 4* Valbar: No.
  2. 3* Python: No.
  3. 4* Nino: No.
  4. 4* Lucius: No.
  5. 3* Leon: No.

A very Valentian circle and a complete waste of 20 good orbs.

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I got absolutely wrecked by the Fallen banner, eight full rounds and the yield was, on pull 38, a +Def -Atk Flora, followed by a +Def -HP F Kris on the next pull. So that's the 4.75% gone, and no focus units. Picked Lilith as the spark and that's it.

I just need to hold out until the CYL Eirika re-run this month so I can call it quits on a better note.

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I decided to pull only greens and blues until my tickets ran out.

So ... instead of a dead king I ended up pulling a microwave 😐 At least it's a new 5-star ...

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I somehow managed to pull 2 Fallen Rheas, got my first Sacanth (or however they're spelling his name), got my first Astrid, and sparked Fallen Gustav. (I also got a bunch of heroes who turned into books or feathers.) And that, my friends, was every last orb I had. Thank you and good night.

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