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Well, the New Heroes announcement dropped and I'm not even slightly interested, so time to spend what I've got. Blue for the New Power banner.

  1. 4* Lukas: No.

Grey for Weekly Revival 18.

  1. 3* Azama: No.

Red for Weekly Revival 57.

  1. 3* Henry: No.

And red again for the Scions banner. This time I'm going to see if 114 orbs can get me the one version of Julia that I'm missing.

Spoiler
  1. 4* Eirika: No.

Oh well. No freebie for me then.

  1. 3* Fir: No.
  2. 4* Kamui: No.

105 orbs left.

  1. 3* Roderick: No.

100 orbs left.

  1. 3* Knoll: No.

95 orbs left.

  1. 4* Ogma: No.
  2. 4* Mamui: No.

86 orbs left.

  1. 3* Stahl: No.

81 orbs left.

  1. 4* Palla: No.
  2. 4* Guy: No.

72 orbs left.

  1. 3* Soleil: No.
  2. 3* Tharja: No.

63 orbs left.

  1. 4* Roy: No.

58 orbs left.

  1. 4* A!Tiki: No.
  2. 3* Hana: No.

49 orbs left.

  1. 3* Erk: No.
  2. 3* Fir: No.
  3. 3* Fir: No.

I'm completely convinced the 3* rate is a lie at this point. 36 orbs left.

  1. 4* Ilyana: No.

31 orbs left.

  1. 3* Ares: No.
  2. 3* Silvia: No.
  3. 3* Seliph: No.

At this point it's up to 15/25, which is almost twice what it's supposed to be. 18 orbs left.

  1. 4* Scion!Lewyn: Well, at least he didn't pity-break me. +HP/-Atk is bad, but the manual can fix that.

13 orbs left.

  1. 4* Silvia: No.

This banner genuinely has it out for me. Last time it took ~250 orbs just to get one copy of Harmonic!Leif, now it's eaten 106 orbs and given me nothing but a 4* Scion!Lewyn. Not even a single 4* Special like usual.

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Surprisingly bad luck on all of the rerun banners.

50 pulls from the Ascended Fjorm banner:

  • 1 Ascended Fjorm (+1 spark)
  • 1 Annette

55 pulls from the Remix banner:

  • 1 Ascended Ishtar
  • 1 Legendary Julia
  • 0 Ascended Mareeta (+1 spark)

24 pulls from the Fuzzy Hat banner:

  • 1 Harmonized Leaf

That comes out to a miserably low 3.1% focus rate and 3.9% overall 5-star rate.

Even if the Remix banner had a 3% focus rate instead of a 6% focus rate like the others, a 3.1% focus rate would still have been below average (average is about 3.3%).

 

The Leaf also happened to be the exact same [+Atk, -Spd] that my merge base is. Go figure.

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Oh my gosh. I used all my tickets and my free pull, so I didn't use orbs on all of these, but only 9 pulls in, I actually managed to get a +Atk Rearmed Lif!!! I was really hoping to get him, too! I may pull a little more and see if I get another copy of him or a copy of M!Shez, but I can't believe I got muy ideal so early on!! Maybe I'll go back and see if I can't get Flame Tribe Muspell...

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85 pulls on the Lif banner:

  • 2 Lif (+1 spark)
  • 2 Shez
  • 1 Monica
  • 0 Hilda (+1 spark)
  • 1 pity breaker (Catherine)

5.9% focus rate. 7.1% total 5-star rate. It's hard to calculate the expected values due to color sharing combined with sessions with no red orbs, but the focus rate seems close enough to average and the total 5-star rate seems to be 1 pull short of average.

Overall an okay haul.

The Lifs have an HP and a Spd Asset, which are useless. The Shezes both have HP Assets, which are useless. The Monica has an HP Asset, which is useless. What the fuck.

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25 pulls so far. I need more orbs to finish the spark, which I will have next week. What I got so far was:

  • 1 OG Hilda
  • 1 Male Shez
  • 1 Fiora
  • 1 Brave Dimitri
  • 2 Gustavs

Very good for only that amount of orbs. Depending on how the rest of my summons go, I will get or Líf for the fodder, Hilda for the floret, or a merge for Shez since he will become a merge project and my only copy is -Atk.

Edit: 5 more summons made and I got:

  • 1 Rinkah
Edited by Diovani Bressan
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No early luck for me on Rearmed Lif’s banner. Ten summons got me exactly nothing of note, but that’s fine.

I did get a free +Atk Fell F!Morgan from the Ascended Fjorm re-run free pulls though. I also finished up on Bite of Flame and have my Tana & Peony (but had to use the spark as I got nothing else from the last 15 pulls).

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Whittled my orbs down from 260 to 50 due to sniping on Reamred Lif's banner and the Weekly Revival banner. 

 

The Rearmed banner was pretty bad. I was sniping Red and Green orbs for Lif, Shez, and Hilda, but I ended up being pity-broken by Monica on a summoning circle with only blue and colorless. I should have gone colorless... I ended up pulling Shez three summons before the Spark, so I was at least able to Spark for Rearmed Lif. 

On the Weekly Revival banner, I was hunting for Phina since she's a character I want. I did get her, but it took a bit. 

Overall, this is bad shape, but not anything I can't recover from before the end of October. 

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Alright, green for Weekly Revival 19.

  1. 4* Draug: No.

Red for Weekly Revival 37.

  1. 3* A!Tiki: No.

Blue for To Stop Dreaming.

  1. 4* Cordelia: No.

Green for the Bond banner.

  1. 4* Miranda: No.

Green for the New Heroes banner. I don't expect to get Hilda, but let's see.

  1. 3* Barst: Reposition fodder.
  2. 3* Ross: No.
  3. 4* Gwendolyn: No.
  4. 3* Mordecai: No.
  5. 3* Seteth: No.

And now to see if I can finally get Julia from the Scion banner. 90 orbs on hand.

Spoiler
  1. 3* Lon'qu: No.

85 orbs left.

  1. 4* Tharja: No.
  2. 3* Tanith: No.

76 orbs left.

  1. 4* Hinata: No.
  2. 5* Midori: Huh. Well, +HP-Def is decent enough, so welcome to the barracks.

At least I finally got something. 67 orbs left.

  1. 4* Luthier: No.

62 orbs left.

  1. 4* Miranda: No.

57 orbs left.

  1. 4* Sakura: No.

52 orbs left.

  1. 4* Mustafa: No.

47 orbs left.

  1. 5* Scion!Julia: Finally! +Spd/-Res is pretty good for once.
  2. 4* Chrom: No.
  3. 4* Kent: Reposition fodder.

The other two orbs are blue, so no reason to bother with them

So in the end a total of 162 orbs got me Midori and one copy of Julia. That's pretty reasonable, all things considered.

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Got Ashe and Duo Lif from the new banner. I wanted baby Tana and merges for baby Eirika, but I'll take it. Ashe is +Res -Hp (probably going to become fodder) and Líf is +Def -Atk because of course, although it doesn't matter that much when Duo Lif's prime has already passed. 

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Grey for A Splendid Soiree.

  1. 3* Merlinus: Reposition fodder.

Green for the Rearmed Special banner.

  1. 3* Gunter: No.
  2. 3* Sheena: No.
  3. 5* Hilda: Another 4* Special copy of you. +Spd/-Atk makes a much better master copy than +Def, so +2 it is now.
  4. 4* Rath: No.
  5. 4* Arthur: No.
  6. 4* Clarine: No.

That went well enough. Not that I use Hilda at all, but another 5* is never a bad thing. Red for the BHB battle.

  1. 3* Kamui: No.

Green for Weekly Revival 20.

  1. 3* Fae: No.

Red for Weekly Revival 58.

  1. 4* Mae: No.

And since I don't make good decisions, I'm going to see if 69 orbs can net me a merge for L!Julia from the Remix banner.

Spoiler
  1. 3* Seteth: No.

Not a good start.

  1. 3* Gwendolyn: No.

64 orbs left.

  1. 5* L!Julia: Yay, that was fast. +Spd/-Red is bad, but my current copy is already +Atk. 
  2. 4* L'Arachel: No. I'll take the rest of the circle for fun.
  3. 3* Fae: No.
  4. 4* Merric: No.
  5. 4* Clarine: No

Okay, that actually went better than expected. 25 orbs got me one merge, bringing Julia up to +7. I don't dare test my luck any further.

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54 pulls on the Double Special Heroes banner:

  • 4 Gustav (+1 spark)
  • 3 Catria

13.0% focus rate is obviously well above average.

Gustav is now +6. Catria was already +10, so all 3 copies are available for A/D Near Trace fodder.

I'll wait until I see who the next Legendary Hero is before I pull some more from the festival banner.

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Not sure if I should laugh or cry. Either way, I'm done for now. I'll pull more later after I clean up my barracks a bit.

123 pulls:

  • 3 Ninian (+1 spark)
  • 7 Male Byleth
  • 1 Xander
  • 1 Lilina
  • 1 Lilith
  • 1 Tinny
  • 1 Mila

12.2% focus rate, which is a massive 5 copies higher than average (~10). But it's all just Byleth, who is completely useless to me as fodder.

But I did get a +Spd copy of Ninian and my first +Spd copy of Tinny, so that's pretty cool.

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Finally got tiny L'Arachel! She was the last one I needed for the SS Child banner. Her boon/bane may not be very good, but at least I finally have her!

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Since they added a new dancer, I was obligated to get her. I went only for the spark because I need to save some orbs for the Merrybilis rerun — those last four merges won't pay for themselves.

  • Cavalry!Chrom (4* Special) (+HP/-Atk)
  • Innes (4* Special) (+HP/-Spd)
  • Lethe (4* Special) (+Atk/-Spd)
  • Asc!Florina (+HP/-Atk)
  • Ylgr (4* Special) (+Spd/-Def)
  • Hubert (4* Special) (+Atk/-HP)
  • L!Ninian (+Def/-Atk)
  • Mila (+Spd/-HP)
  • L!Ninian (Spark) (Neutral)

Admittedly I was thinking of sparking another Asc!Florina for the +5, but I decided L!Ninian would be more worthwhile. (Also, I didn't want the spark to log my interest; I've been getting off-bannered by her frequently, and I'd rather IntSys not spoil my fun by turning on the desire sensor.)

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I got lucky in an unlucky way. Hunting for 4 copies of M!Byleth with 300ish orbs, I got:
1 Mila (Merge project for light season)
1 A!Florina (First copy, so 1 Floret)
3 L!Ninians (Can't complain, she's a nice unit and could become a future merge project)
6, SIX L!Xanders (Didn't have any copy of him, so now I have him siting at +5 and I guess he's a merge project for Fire season, which I had none, and he's probably better than my Wind season project (L!Corrin), as he scores better and seems to be a better unit than her)
1 M!Byleth (spark)

Now I still need 3 copies of him and he's coming back a long time in the future. I should probably invest on merging L!Ninian till then, maybe she surpasses him on merges and goes to my Arena core on Water seasons.

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If I had a nickle for every copy of Fallen Lyon I've gotten since his reveal as part of the recent Hall of Forms, I would have 3 nickles, which isn't a lot but it's really weird that it has happened 3 times now, totally off-focus.

This does, on the other hand, mean that once the HoF redemption period begins, my Fallen Lyon will be +9 merge. Guess I should put a little more effort into getting him good skills now?

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Red for the VG banner.

  1. 3* Boey: Figures.

Red again for the Combat Boost banner.

  1. 4* Lex: Reposition fodder.

Green for the Performing Arts banner.

  1. 4* Mustafa: No.

Green again for Weekly Revival 21.

  1. 5* Rhajat: Hey, nice.+Spd/-HP is nice as well.

Finally something worthwhile. Red for Weekly Revival 38.

  1. 3* Ares: No.

And now to try a few full circles from the Legendary banner. Reginn and Nott are the only units I have from it, so hopefully I can get somebody new. 120 orbs to start.

Spoiler
  1. 4* Tanith: No.
  2. 4* Sophia: No.
  3. 4* Nowi: No.
  4. 4* Python: No.
  5. 3* Linhardt: No.

So much for getting lucky. 105 orbs left.

  1. 3* Eliwood: No.
  2. 4* Karin: No.
  3. 3* Lukas: No.
  4. 3* Orochi: No.
  5. 3* Jeorge: No.

Ugh...85 orbs left.

  1. 4* Mordecai: No.
  2. 4* Valbar: No.
  3. 4* Chad: No.
  4. 3* Sakura: No.
  5. 3* Emmeryn: No.

65 orbs left.

  1. 3* Tharja: No.
  2. 3* Florina: No.
  3. 4* Roderick: No.
  4. 4* Cordelia: No.
  5. 5* L!Ninian: Yay, I got the star of the show! +Spd/-Atk is decent enough.

That took long enough. One more circle to test my luck. 45 orbs left.

  1. 3* Lon'qu: No.
  2. 3* Soleil: No.
  3. 5* Reginn: Alright, not bad. +Def/-Res is meh, but my current copy is +1 +Res and I'm feeling lazy.
  4. 3* Chrom: No.
  5. 4* Echidna: No.

So in the end 5 full circles got me L!Ninian and a merge for Reginn. Kind of annoyed since I really would have liked L!Lilina or Fallen!Lilith instead, but a free Rhajat means I can't complain too much. Ultimately I'm just happy I essentially matched the focus rate.

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Well, that was weird. XD Free-pulled my first Hugh. And then, while pulling reds and greens on the new Halloween banner, I got my first Constance (I think that was her name. Ashen Wolves flying red tome lady.) Nothing else of note, and now I need to try to earn more orbs before I can pull again (I'm down to 9, I think) but that sure was one weird summoning session! XD

Edit: Earned some orbs from the TT+ so I summoned again. Again, no focus units, but I did randomly get my first Hubert. XD What is with this banner and giving me red tome users I never had before? (This time it was a 4* special (turning him into a 5*) but still.)

Edited by Mercakete
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I'm ... starting to believe that the best way to get luck on a seasonal banner is to despise the IRL holiday/event it is based on.

On the first year of dragon Halloween, I free-pulled Deghinsea and got a copy of Xane on the first circle with him.
On the second year of dragon Halloween, I free-pulled Kurthnaga.
And this year, I got both m!Corrin and Phina on the first circle. Not free pulls, but still.

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Trying to clean up the Flame Festival banner and failing miserably.

213 pulls sniping both blue and green:

  • 1 Lyn
  • 3 Tana
  • 6 blue pity breakers
  • 3 green pity breakers

1.9% focus rate, 6.1% overall 5-star rate.

78 pulls sniping green:

  • 1 Lyn
  • 2 Tana
  • 5 green pity breakers

3.8% focus rate, 10.3% overall 5-star rate.

 

Including my previous pulls, 718 pulls total:

  • 10 Tana (+1 spark)
  • 5 Lyn
  • 1 Muspell
  • 4 5-star Rinkah
  • 8 4-star Rinkah
  • 30 pity breakers

2.8% focus rate, which is 3 units less than average. 7.0% overall 5-star rate, which is 3 units more than average.

It's really, really annoying knowing that if I had gotten just average pulls, I would have a +10 Tana and a +7 Lyn by now. But instead, I only have a +4 Lyn.

Edited by Ice Dragon
Math is hard when you're sleep-deprived.
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Grey for the Solo banner.

  1. 4* Maria: No.

Blue for the TT banner.

  1. 3* Reinhardt: No.

And red for the Halloween banner.

  1. 5* Alm: Not who I was looking for, but another 4* Special is fine by me. +Atk/-Res is excellent, so I guess I should merge in my current +3 +Def copy.

At least I got something. I really need to restock on orbs, so that's it for this banner.

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178 pulls to finish up the Legendary Ninian banner:

  • 7 Ninian
  • 3 Xander
  • 5 Male Byleth
  • 1 Mila

9.0% focus rate is slightly above average, by about 1 unit. Very skewed towards Ninian with a 3.9% Ninian rate, though, which is uncharacteristically generous for a Legendary/Mythic Hero banner.

 

With my previous pulls, this comes out to 301 total pulls:

  • 10 Ninian (+1 spark)
  • 4 Xander
  • 12 Male Byleth
  • 1 Lilina
  • 1 Lilith
  • 2 Mila
  • 1 Tinny

10.3% focus rate is quite a bit above average, by about 5-6 units. 3.3% Ninian rate is also quite a bit above average, by something like 4 pulls or so.

But as expected, I get a giant pile of the unit I wanted the least. Byleth literally has no skills of any value to me because they had to give him an exclusive version of Ruptured Sky instead of normal Ruptured Sky. I wish they'd have just given him both so that he'd actually be worth something for fodder.

 

And my initial 55 pulls on the Halloween banner:

  • 2 Duma (+1 spark)
  • 4 4-star Naga

And pity breakers:

  • Sain (first copy)
  • Brave Marth (now +10)
  • Yuri

3.6% focus rate is basically average, 9.1% overall 5-star rate is slightly more than 1 pull above average.

My goals for this banner are to pull 1 of each Corrin and then pull red and colorless until I get a +10 Naga. So far doing okay, though it would be nice to get the Corrins soon so that I don't have to keep pulling blue and green.

EDIT: 5 more pulls gets me Flavia as a pity breaker.

Edited by Ice Dragon
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As usual, I haven't shared my pulls here lately. But I have to leave this (this just happened today) here because of how WTF it was:

6fEfnN3.png?2

This was from Divine Harvest by the way, so these were all off-focus with the base 3% rate. Also, I had just gotten an off-focus Ascended Mareeta (my first one) from Rearmed Lif's banner and had to wait until pull 43 there to get my first Ascended Hilda.

Oh, and this my second instance of getting multiple off-focus 5*s on this banner too (Fell M!Morgan and Lilith in the same set, but I at least had a 3.50% pity rate then).

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