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147 pulls until I got all of my copies of Panne, no longer pulling blue after the first copy of Ash:

  • 3 Askr
  • 1 Ash
  • 1 5-star Panne
  • 6 4-star Panne
  • 5 pity breakers
    • Brave Claude
    • Wolf
    • Nyx
    • Say'ri
    • Fallen Edelgard

3.4% focus rate is basically average. 6.8% 5-star rate is not quite half a pull above average.

 

182 pulls sniping only colorless, pulling blue if there was no colorless:

  • 7 Askr
  • 2 Ash
  • 4 pity breakers
    • Brave Claude
    • Ascended Florina
    • Shinon
    • Ascended Laegjarn

4.9% focus rate is 3 pulls above average, which doesn't quite make up for the awfulness of the first batch. 7.1% 5-star rate is only 1 pull above average.

 

Total counts over 465 pulls:

  • 10 Askr (+1 spark)
  • 3 Ash
  • 0 Elm
  • 1 5-star Panne
  • 10 4-star Panne
  • 15 pity breakers

2.2% Askr rate is a bit disappointing, but is to be expected when also pulling for the 4-star. 3.0% focus rate is 1 pull below average. 6.2% 5-star rate is slightly more than 1 pull below average.

Overall not great, but not too far below average. And I ended up getting a few merges for Ash effectively as pity breakers, too. No budget remaining for Shez since my leftover orbs are going to the omega banner after I figure out what I want to pull for on that banner. Since Shez is sharing an Arena bonus season with this banner, there's no rush to get merges for her, and I'll be fine waiting for when she is rerun in April.

 

Oh, yeah. And I got 2 copies of Shinon from this banner. Deadeye fodder is good.

Edited by Ice Dragon
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Weekly arena hero: No greys, no greens, so I opted for the one red over any of the four blues, to mediocre results.

1. Veronica
2. Mamori
3. Sad Tiki
4. Innes
5. Katarina

 

EDIT: Going to try sniping just blue on the Winter banner, and pull 24 was a +Spd -Def Nifl, not going to say no when it was just at 3%.

Fallen re-run gave me ...my first Ricken.

Edited by Humanoid
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So I've been saving my banners for the Fallen Banner rerun. All I really wanted is at least one Gustav and one Ninian. The first few discounted circles were crap, just a bunch of old 3-stars and 4-stars. Picked up a new base for my Ricken and Kiragi, and first Dwyer. And a random Hubert who didn't seem any better than my current one.

Pull 35, got my first Pent with a great nature.

Last circle, I kinda resigned myself to having to pick between one of Gustav or Ninian ... and then on pull 40 there was Ninian. I'm perfectly fine with this.

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Ticket #2 on the fallen re-run banner gave me my second CYL Edelgard of the week, and fourth overall.

Then I forgot to re-engage my brain and also opened green on the current NY banner with tickets #8 and #9. Oddly this was rewarded with an Astrid of all people, who is new to me. I'm slightly annoyed in that I may have missed two opportunities at NY Askr (not that I even remember whether there were any grey orbs on those circles), but you win some you lose some I guess.

Edited by Humanoid
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The New Year summoning tickets were unusually kind to me. They gave me New Year Askr + Embla Duo, New Year Dagr + Nott Duo, New Year Velouria, and Constance.

As for my weekly Arena ticket:

  • Week 1: Horse Chrom
  • Week 2: Luke
  • Week 3: Lewyn
  • Week 4: Maribelle
  • Week 5: Velouria
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My weekly Arena ticket got me Innes.

Spoiler
  1. Brave Veronica
  2. Leila
  3. Luke
  4. Leila
  5. Innes

 

Pulled from the Omega banner until I ran out of tickets, using orbs to grab any extra colorless pulls that showed up. Ended up using all 12 tickets and making 5 additional pulls with orbs:

  • 1 5-star Lyre
  • 3 4-star Lyre

Pretty good haul since Lyre has Atk/Spd Catch 3. Pull rates are a bit pointless with such a small sample size, so I won't bother.

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As expected, my birthday/Christmas luck has expired.

Beyond Control (rerun):

  • Yarne (4* Special) (+Res/-Def)
  • B!Lucina (4* Special) (+Atk/-Def)
  • Green Olwen (4* Special) (+Atk/-Res)
  • Sue (4* Special) (+Res/-Def)
  • Nyx (+Def/-Atk)
  • Zelgius (4* Special) (+Atk/-Def)
  • F!Ninian #5 (Spark) (Neutral)

Not sure what to think about all the 4* Specials, but I sure as hell didn't get what I was actually aiming for. Fallen Ninian is not being +10'd this go-round.

Edited by Some Jerk
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Finally got around to rounding up the last of my tickets from all available sources, but it was for naught, nothing from them.

Too late to back out from the Winter banner now, so headed back with no pity rate, to face a circle of three blues. The third was +HP -Spd Winter Cordelia. Great result at 3%, which means I had a pretty lucky run of things, pulling Dorothea at #1, BK at #20, Nifl at #24 and now Cordelia at #27 to complete all three 5-star exclusives on the banner. Huh, didn't realise until typing that that all four heroes are rather cold themed.

I'm not sure what to do now. The spark isn't all that far away so it makes sense to pursue it. But do I just do full circles to get there as soon as possible given I have all my targets already? Do I keep on sniping blue to maximise the odds I get a better-than-neutral Cordelia to use as the base? But improving my +HP -Def BK is a not-unattractive prospect either, nor would getting rid of my Dorothea's Spd bane be a bad thing. Hmm.

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The good run continues, with both a +Atk -HP Winter Cordelia and a Monica with that very same nature showing up on a full circle of four blues and a green, vindicating my decision to wait for 20 orbs before summoning. Pretty remarkable how the units have clustered on this banner. I'm now 34 pulls into it and the results so far:

#1: Winter Dorothea
#20 Winter BK
#24: Nifl
#27: Winter Cordelia
#32: Winter Cordelia
#34: Monica

Edited by Humanoid
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An absolute ton of pulls to make this week. Blue for Weekly Revival 2.

  1. 4* Est:

Red for Weekly Revival 45.

  1. 3* Soleil: No.

Grey for the Joint Drive banner.

  1. 3* Clarine: No.

Red for Beyond Control and its tickets.

  1. 4* Roy: No.
  2. 4* M!Morgan: No.
  3. 4* Miranda: No.
  4. 4* Bantu: No.
  5. 4* Eliwood: No.

That was disappointing. Now for the various NY banners. Red for Fire and Ice.

  1. 4* Scathach: No.

Red again for Renewed Spirit.

  1. 4* Knoll: No.

Green/blue for the Omega Special Heroes banner.

  1. 4* Basilio: No.
  2. 3* Rath: No.
  3. 5* WT!Olwen: Okay, not a bad 4* Special. +Atk/-Def is good, but I already have a +3 +Atk copy. Merge time it is,.
  4. 3* Nowi: No.
  5. 4* Fae: No.
  6. 4* Ross: No.
  7. 5* Duo!Dagr: Yay, finally a focus unit! +Def/-Atk isn't good though.
  8. 4* Abel: No.
  9. 4* Subaki: No.
  10. 5* Hapi: Well, that's a nice surprise. +Res/-Spd is good as well, with a super-asset and super-flaw to balance each other out. Now Constance is the only Ashen Wolf I'm missing.
  11. 4* Donnel: No.

That went very nicely. A merge for an old unit and two brand new ones. Now to cap things off with grey on Gods Renewed.

  1. 5* Duo!Askr: Heyyy, that's what I like to see. +Atk/-Def is decent. Now I might as well try green to see if Elm shows up.
  2. 3* Nino: No.
  3. 4* Boey: No.
  4. 4* Reyson: No.
  5. 4* Titania: No.
  6. 3* Robin: No.

That went very well for my first pull session of the New Year. 27 free pulls netted me two strong focus units in Duo!Dagr and Duo!Askr, a good copy of Hapi, and a random merge for WT!Olwen to round things off.

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42 pulls from the Forging Bonds banner to grab the spark, pulling red and colorless:

  • 1 Lilith (+1 spark)
  • 1 Rhea
  • 2 pitybreakers:
    • Ascended Laegjarn
    • Malice

4.8% focus rate is pretty good, though due to the small total number of pulls, it's only above average by less than 1 pull. 9.5% 5-star rate is also good, and it's above average by a bit more than 1 pull.

Lilith is now +6. Rhea is now +7. Lilith also has a new +Spd merge base, which is nice.

 

I also managed to grab yet another copy of Shinon from my free pull on the Joint Drive banner. Three copies of Deadeye within just a week or so is really nice.

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Completely forgot to use the weekly Arena ticket a few days ago. Let's see what it gives me...

  1. 5* Ishtar: Not bad. +Def/-HP is awful, but I already have a +3 +Res copy to merge into. +4 now.
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So I was going to do a single summon session and pull all the relevant colors. As expected, I didn't get any lucky focus units.

Much to my surprise though, I did free-pull my first Monica and got +atk -res Brave Seliph. I think Seliph likes me or something, this is the second one I've randomly pulled off-focus with a low amount of orbs.

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Busy times.

Free Flying Nino merge from the TT banner.

From last year I was on 27/40 pulls on the Legendary Shez banner so I did three full rounds to get to the spark. Disappointingly I got nothing on the way to grabbing the free Neutral Legendary Shez, but fixing my -Spd copy was the number one priority. The neutral one serves as the new base.

However that left me with a 10% pity rate and zero orbs which was very annoying, so with barely 10 minutes remaining on the banner, I scrambled to do as many Paralogue CCs as possible. With two minutes left and only 14 orbs, I dived back in to just pull whatever I could. Well, it worked out, with two of the three pulls being an +Atk +Res Legendary Ninian and a +Def -Atk Seidr. Very pleased and relieved at that result, especially as I was about to pull the two greys on the circle instead of the two greens.

Completed the spark on the Winter banner, final six pulls produced no more focus units, but pull #40 was a 4*SR Myrrh merge, so that's something. Still a massive haul overall from this banner overall with four focus units, four off-focus units and that one 4*SR. I am now having difficulty deciding which unit to spark, bearing in mind I have a +Atk +1 Winter Cordelia, a +HP -Def Winter BK, and a +Atk -Spd Winter Dorothea. Hmm.

Freebie on the Desert banner was nothing.

Weekly arena summon:
1. Veronica
2. Mamori
3. Sad Tiki
4. Innes
5. Katarina
6. Green Olwen

No greys once more, but getting my first Olwen of any description is more than ample consolation as I quite like her look.

Edited by Humanoid
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First things first, red for Happy New Year!

  1. 3* Seliph: No.

Grey for Weekly Revival 3.

  1. 3* Jeorge: No.

I guess B!Veronica will continue to be the one Brave unit I'm missing. Red for Weekly Revival 46.

  1. 4* Tharja: No.

Grey for the TT banner.

  1. 3* Tethys: No.

And now time for the Khadein banner. I've got 268 orbs on hand, so hopefully my red-sniping Harmonic hunt goes well.

Spoiler
  1. 4* Erk: No.
  2. 4* Lukas: No.
  3. 4* Khadein!M!Byleth: Good. +HP/-Res is decent enough for my liking.

An acceptable start. 260 orbs left.

  1. 3* Subaki: No.

Ugh...255 orbs left.

  1. 4* Chrom: No.

250 orbs left.

  1. 4* Cath: Reposition fodder.

Where are the red orbs? 245 orbs left.

  1. 3* Miranda: No.
  2. 3* Miranda: Really?
  3. 4* Miranda: Seriously?!

That genuinely boggles my mind. 232 orbs left.

  1. 4* Ogma: No.
  2. 4* Bantu: No.

223 orbs left.

  1. 3* Titania: No.

218 orbs left.

  1. 4* Roy: No.
  2. 3* Erk: No.

209 orbs left.

  1. 3* Rath: No.

204 orbs left.

  1. 4* Eirika: No.

199 orbs left.

  1. 4* Marth: No.

194 orbs left.

  1. 3* Miranda: Go away.

189 orbs left.

  1. 4* Sophia: No.
  2. 3* Seth: No.

Up to a 4% pity rate now. 180 orbs left.

  1. 4* Athena: No.

175 orbs left.

  1. 4* Lon'qu: No.
  2. 3* Silvia: No.
  3. 4* Cain: No.

162 orbs left.

  1. 5* Idunn: Not whom I'm looking for, but still a nice 4* Special. +Hp/-Res isn't great, but I've got a +Atk/-Spd copy already to merge into.

157 orbs left.

  1. 4* Merric: No.

152 orbs left.

  1. 5* Nah: 4* Special Dragons galore this time around. +Res/-Atk isn't great, but I've got a +HP/-Atk copy already.
  2. 3* Olivia: No.
  3. 5* Hugh: Sure, whatever. +Def/-HP is subpar, but better than nothing.

A nice haul, but not what I'm looking for at all. 139 orbs left.

  1. 4* Chrom: No.
  2. 4* Lon'qu: No.

130 orbs left.

  1. 5* YT!Olivia: Yet another 4* Special. +Def/-Res is yet again mediocre, but I've got a +1 +Spd copy already.

125 orbs left.

  1. 3* Roy: No.

120 orbs left.

  1. 4* Barst: Reposition fodder.

115 orbs left.

  1. 5* Khadein!Nino: Finally a 5* focus unit! She's not Linde and Sara, but I was hoping she'd show up anyway. +HP/-Def works well enough on her.

That took long enough. 110 orbs left.

  1. 5* Khadein!Ursula: Nice! +Spd/-Def is excellent as well.

My luck appears to have turned around. 105 orbs left.

  1. 4* Eliwood: No.
  2. 4* Bantu: No.
  3. 3* Knoll: No.

92 orbs left.

  1. 4* Caeda: No.
  2. 4* Lilina: No.

83 orbs left.

  1. 4* Henry: No.
  2. 4* Lilina: No.
  3. 4* Seth: No.

70 orbs left.

  1. 4* Reyson: No.

65 orbs left.

  1. 4* Sophia: No.

60 orbs left.

  1. 4* Ross: No.

55 orbs left.

  1. 5* Galzus: Hello. +HP/-Spd is terrible, but I've got a +Atk/-Def copy to merge into.
  2. 3* Stahl: No.

46 orbs left.

  1. 3* Merric: No.

41 orbs left.

  1. 3* Kamui: No.
  2. 4* Bantu: No.

32 orbs left.

  1. 3* Lon'qu: No.
  2. 3* A!Tiki: No.
  3. 3* A!Tiki: Ugh...

19 orbs left.

  1. 4* Tharja: No.
  2. 3* Kamui: No.

258 orbs and 57 pulls later, that banner went well in every way except the one that actually mattered. I got Nino and Ursula back to back, Byleth at 4*, Hugh, a merge for Galzus, and 4* Special merges for Idunn, Nah, and YT!Olivia. Naturally the one thing I didn't get was a copy of Harmonic!Linde. I guess I'll have to come back here once I've gathered up some more orbs.

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This banner once again highlights how annoying it is that you are forced to pick your spark at 40 pulls and can't let it sit there to pick later. After pulling my tenth Linde, I pulled 5 copies of Nino, 3 copies of Ursula (while sniping red), and 2 pity breakers before finally pulling my eleventh Linde. If I were allowed to wait to pick my spark until the end, I could have avoided all of that bullshit at the end.

494 pulls, sniping red:

  • 11 Linde
  • 16 Nino
  • 4 Ursula (+1 spark)
  • 3 4-star Byleth
  • 13 pity breakers
    • Say'ri
    • Midori
    • 2 Constance
    • Echoes Palla
    • Fallen Male Morgan
    • Hugh
    • Ascended Tiki
    • Lysithea
    • Brave Seliph
    • Azel
    • Fallen Ike
    • Brave Edelgard

2.2% Linde rate is below average. 3.2% Nino rate is slightly above average if you account for forced off-color pulls. 6.3% focus rate is about average. 2.6% off-focus 5-star rate is below average by about 3 pulls.

Three of the 4 copies of Ursula have an HP Asset. What the actual fuck.

I'm overall slightly over budget on this banner, which means I'm probably going to cut some pulls from the Mythic Hero banner at the end of the month. I might also lower my goals for the AHR banner, too, but we'll see if I have to or not. I wasn't planning on pulling past the spark on the upcoming New Heroes banner, and I don't see myself changing those plans unless the banner has multiple sparks.

I have a good number of leftover orbs from the last orb pack and will probably go and farm free orbs to spark the Forging Bonds rerun banner.

 

This week's Arena ticket got me Flying Olivia.

Spoiler
  1. Brave Veronica
  2. Leila
  3. Luke
  4. Leila
  5. Innes
  6. Flying Olivia

I got a Male Byleth out of the SR pool on the Khadein banner, which means that both of my regular Byleths are now at +10. I'll probably be prioritizing red instead of colorless on the Arena tickets for a while to see if I can start getting spare copies of Ruptured Sky now that both Byleths will be turned into manuals instead of merge fodder.

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Got baited into opening the second grey on the Remix banner and picked up my second +Atk OG Claude this month.

Also got bored of always having to skip past the CYL freebie on the summon screen so I finally got around to claiming Seliph, the only one I don't have yet. I was planning on holding onto it until after the CYL Hero Fest to determine if any were still at zero or one copies at that point, but eh. I now have 3x Byleth and one each of the others.

Also decided to use the Spark I had on the Winter banner on Dorothea at the end. I figured that the Spd bane on my one copy (+Atk) would annoy me more than the value of +1 Spd on getting Cordelia to +2. And as cute as Winter BK is, I can't justify using resources on armours that don't have Assault Troop.

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There's something to be said about long waits. After being Olwen-less for the entire life of the game, I've picked up my second Green Olwen of the week, this time as a 4*SR from the weekly Gen2 banner free pull. This one is +Atk to boot, fixing up the +HP one from the Arena pull this week.

Then turning around to get the Gen1 freebie, I got an OG Celica, also +Atk to fix up the +Def copy I've had since 2017.

First time I've pulled 5-stars on both revivals in the same week I think.

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Red for the New Power banner.

  1. 3* Fir: No.

Green on the Hall of Forms revival.

  1. 4* Emmeryn: No.

Grey for the Remix banner.

  1. 5* L!Leif: Perfect! +HP/-Res isn't great, but I'll take that over the +Def/-Res I'm currently running.

I'll gladly take that freebie! Grey again for Weekly Revival 4.

  1. 4* Kagero: No.

Red for Weekly Revival 47.

  1. 4* Fir: No.

Now the weekly Arena freebie.

  1. 5* Silque: Not bad. I do use her quite a bit, so another merge is always appreciated. +Res/-Atk isn't great, so I think I'll keep my current +1 +Def copy.

And lastly back to red-sniping on the Khadein banner. 76 orbs on hand.

Spoiler
  1. 4* Chrom: No.

71 orbs left.

  1. 5* Khadein!M!Byleth: Ugh. First Winter!Annette, now this. I'd really prefer if the 4* focus didn't use up my pity rate. +Hp/-Res is even the exact same as my original 4* copy.

Bleh. 66 orbs left.

  1. 4* Marth: No.

61 orbs left.

  1. 4* Bantu: No.

56 orbs left.

  1. 4* Nino: Not quite.

Where are all of the reds? 51 orbs left.

  1. 4* Tanith: No.

46 orbs left.

  1. 4* Hinata: No.

41 orbs left.

  1. 3* Nino: Really?

36 orbs left.

  1. 4* Gunter: No.

31 orbs left.

  1. 4* Lon'qu: No.

26 orbs left.

  1. 4* Stahl: No.
  2. 3* Cain: No.

17 orbs left.

  1. 3* Roy: No.

12 circles, a total of 9 red units between all of them, and 64 more orbs spent only got me a meaningless 5* copy of Byleth. I swear this is what happens every single time I try to pull a Harmonic: several hundred orbs spent to get one copy at best. At least my free pulls earlier went well.

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I didn't plan to spark on this banner, but after seeing we got 5 extra tickets (9 in total), I got baited.

I ended with 2 Alears (one already died to Holst), 1 Valentina Catria, 1 Fiora (wrong 5* exclusive with Pegasus Flight), 1 Rennac, 1 Hugh, and a sparked Alfred.

Honestly, not bad! I am happy that I got some nice results.

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Same, got baited but with considerably less success. +HP -Def Alfred, plus Dieck and Saber on the way to sparking Alear. But got the two units I wanted so okay I guess, though given the opportunity I'd have liked a second Alfred. I'm drowning in Diecks, think that's #5 or something and I've never intentionally pulled for him.

Weekly Arena pull once again only gave me Reds and Blues. Lyn it is.

1. Veronica
2. Mamori
3. Sad Tiki
4. Innes
5. Katarina
6. Green Olwen
7. Lyn

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2 hours ago, Diovani Bressan said:

I didn't plan to spark on this banner, but after seeing we got 5 extra tickets (9 in total), I got baited.

Hey, me too.

On my pulls, I ended up getting Young Tiki and Ascended Idunn (the wrong dragons), Farina (the wrong pegasus knight), Flying Nino (who is neither infantry nor a princess) and Celine (... Celine). Sparked Alfred.

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