Jump to content
Ice Dragon

Ice Dragon's stats research: Stats, calculations, and whatnot

Recommended Posts

I'm pretty sure that all of the daily heroes and the Narcian event all have neutral natures, and the only time they get high and low stats are when they are summoned using orbs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, DogGodFrogLog said:

The site definitely has a lot of stats wrong. Didn't keep track but pulled several heroes that didn't fit in their calc or had 1 high all medium stats. (Lucina)

It's because the data they're using is hodge-podge in terms of what weapon and skills were equipped when people noted things down. For instance, for any character you can't naturally pull at 5* they are assuming you're checking from a 4* character but with what skills and weapon equipped? Hard to say some of the time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, Hawk King said:

I'm pretty sure that all of the daily heroes and the Narcian event all have neutral natures, and the only time they get high and low stats are when they are summoned using orbs.

I believe that to be the case as well. It's nice that they're being fair about characters that have limited availability (Alphonse, Sharena, Anna, and Narcian).

 

33 minutes ago, lysander said:

It's because the data they're using is hodge-podge in terms of what weapon and skills were equipped when people noted things down. For instance, for any character you can't naturally pull at 5* they are assuming you're checking from a 4* character but with what skills and weapon equipped? Hard to say some of the time.

That doesn't, however, explain how they are almost assuredly wrong with Hinoka's stats considering she is only available as a 5-star character. All I can assume is that they are guessing based on limited data and attempting to pass it off as verified.

 

EDIT: I realized today that when I'm working on the spreadsheet, other people cannot adjust my filters. I've set aside the data pool sheet for public use, and I'll be doing all of my filter work in the workshop. I'll copy data from the workshop to the data pool as I finish each set.

Edited by Ice Dragon

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How high can the +\- stat be? I have a Lyn that has 3 speed below her average stats, but has 4 defense more than average. So +3/-4 is possible, can it go higher/lower?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi :)

@Grysun AFAIK, +3/-4 or +4/-3 are the highest variations ever experienced in Fire Emblem Heroes due to natures at level 40. Until I'm proven wrong of course, but it seems to hold for now.

The gamepress IV nature calculator is, honestly, pretty bad in term of accuracy.

So, shameless self advertising plug : I'm making an, I believe, more accurate IV calculator on https://play.google.com/apps/publish/?dev_acc=00446137691776929935#RatingsPlace:p=c4stor.com.feheroes

If you don't like Android apps, the gamewith calculator is really good too : https://fireemblem.gamewith.jp/article/show/51662  except that their "5 stars" spinner contains the stats for 4 stars heroes, and vice-versa...

If you happen to use my app and find anyerror, feel free to PM me here, I'm checking on a daily basis my inbox and can get updates shipped in no time ! Cheers :)
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I really ought to get to bed.

Updated the base stats table with Julia. It's still mostly highlighted in red until I have more screenshot data to confirm her stats.

Eirika is on the list, but I don't have stats yet.

I don't have Ephraim or Seliph yet so I don't know where they fall in character order (presumably Ephraim in front of or behind Eirik and Seliph in front of Julia).

Hopefully, I can actually get around to leveling up my 4-star characters to preview their 5-star base stats sometime this week. And build an arena team that doesn't get wrecked by Robin.

 

Pardon the dust in the spreadsheet. I'm reorganizing it because it takes me way too long to do data input with the amount of copy-pasting I have to do between sheets. It's gotten bad enough that I haven't actually had a chance to play the game for real (trying and often failing Lunatic-9 story missions with suboptimal teams just to burn stamina) the past 2 days because it takes over an hour and a half just to add 60-70 pulls to the list.

Also, I really want to know what was up with the RNG with red summons from Legendary Heroes. The sheer number of Lucinas I managed to pick up and the sheer number of them that were -HP, +Res was kind of ridiculous. I managed 21 Lucinas total with 6 of them having -HP, +Res (and none of them having a nature I really care about). I'm not sure if I should be happy or slamming my head against my desk. I'd love to make a level 40+10 Lucina and see how many faces she can wreck, but it feels like a waste with a lackluster nature.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

I'd love to make a level 40+10 Lucina and see how many faces she can wreck, but it feels like a waste with a lackluster nature.

Make a 40+9 Lucina with a decent nature and you can still wreck face, while waiting for that last Lucina pull with an amazing nature ^^.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey :) I'm the guy who did this reddit thread : 

 


From the screenshots in there, and a bit everywhere  on reddit, I gather the following base stats for the 4 new 5 stars characters at level 1 :

Julia 15/16/17 22/23/24 6/7/8 3/4/5 7/8/9
Ephraim 18/19/20 24/25/26 5/6/7 7/8/9 4/5/6
Seliph 18/19/20 23/24/25 6/7/8 7/8/9 4/5/6
Eirika 17/18/19 22/23/24 8/9/10 6/7/8 5/6/7



Cheers :)

C4stor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Birdy said:

Make a 40+9 Lucina with a decent nature and you can still wreck face, while waiting for that last Lucina pull with an amazing nature ^^.

If you use a +9 character as a sacrifice, does the receiver get all of the merged levels?

(If so, I might just field 2 level 40+9 Lucinas and watch people cry.)

 

8 hours ago, C4stor said:

From the screenshots in there, and a bit everywhere  on reddit, I gather the following base stats for the 4 new 5 stars characters at level 1 :
 

Julia 15/16/17 22/23/24 6/7/8 3/4/5 7/8/9
Ephraim 18/19/20 24/25/26 5/6/7 7/8/9 4/5/6
Seliph 18/19/20 23/24/25 6/7/8 7/8/9 4/5/6
Eirika 17/18/19 22/23/24 8/9/10 6/7/8 5/6/7

 

Julia's numbers seem to match with mine, so I'll take that as confirmation. I might peruse reddit sometime to see if I can get confirmation on the other characters I'm missing definitive stats on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ice Dragon said:

If you use a +9 character as a sacrifice, does the receiver get all of the merged levels?

(If so, I might just field 2 level 40+9 Lucinas and watch people cry.)

Yep, they do. you evil evil person

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My phone overheated while playing today and won't turn back on. Bought a new phone, but it won't arrive until Monday. Is it safe to play on an Android emulator in the meantime (e.g. Bluestacks)? I'd rather not risk my account after the amount of money I've put into it so far.

 

On a side note, I've been compiling data on level 40 units that I've been training up and those I've been encountering in the Arena. It's obviously nowhere near as complete as the other resources lying around, but I'm enjoying doing this so I'll continue.

 

I've noticed something rather suspicious, though. It seems a just a bit too nice to be a coincidence.

5-star Robin has a neutral base stat of 7 in Attack, Speed, and Defense. At level 40, all three of those stats have a neutral value of 29 (+22). My data and the data on the wiki both indicate that all three of those stats also have a -4 at level 40 on a negative nature and +3 at level 40 on a positive nature.

Eirika has a similar phenomenon with Attack and Defense, which both have a base stat of 7 and a value at level 40 of 26 (+19). The data on the wiki shows that both stats have a +4 at level 40 on a positive nature and a -3 at level 40 on the negative nature.

This has me wondering if all stats with a +19 growth have +4/-3 modifiers from nature and all stats with +22 growth have +3/-4 modifiers from nature.

EDIT: Marth as +22 growth in both HP and Defense. Wiki shows a -4 negative modifier on HP and my data shows a -4 negative modifier on Defense (wiki shows -3 for Defense, but I'm obviously going to trust my own data).

Looks promising.

EDIT2: Young Tiki's Resistance, Yuria's HP, and Robin's HP also all have +22 growth. All of them have a -4 negative modifier. Yeah. Done deal.

Edited by Ice Dragon

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

My phone overheated while playing today and won't turn back on. Bought a new phone, but it won't arrive until Monday. Is it safe to play on an Android emulator in the meantime (e.g. Bluestacks)? I'd rather not risk my account after the amount of money I've put into it so far.

Apparently some people playing on Bluestacks get the 803-3001 error, but it doesn't put your account at risk.

9 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

I've noticed something rather suspicious, though. It seems a just a bit too nice to be a coincidence.

5-star Robin has a neutral base stat of 7 in Attack, Speed, and Defense. At level 40, all three of those stats have a neutral value of 29 (+22). My data and the data on the wiki both indicate that all three of those stats also have a -4 at level 40 on a negative nature and +3 at level 40 on a positive nature.

Eirika has a similar phenomenon with Attack and Defense, which both have a base stat of 7 and a value at level 40 of 26 (+19). The data on the wiki shows that both stats have a +4 at level 40 on a positive nature and a -3 at level 40 on the negative nature.

This has me wondering if all stats with a +19 growth have +4/-3 modifiers from nature and all stats with +22 growth have +3/-4 modifiers from nature.

EDIT: Marth as +22 growth in both HP and Defense. Wiki shows a -4 negative modifier on HP and my data shows a -4 negative modifier on Defense (wiki shows -3 for Defense, but I'm obviously going to trust my own data).

Looks promising.

EDIT2: Young Tiki's Resistance, Yuria's HP, and Robin's HP also all have +22 growth. All of them have a -4 negative modifier. Yeah. Done deal.

I find it curious that the programmers would specifically modify +19 and +22 growths to differ from the +3/-3 pattern. I think I prefer keeping all units' stat totals constant at 5* level 40, but in a way it does make sense (+19 means low growth so a positive nature is extra beneficial and +22 means high growth so a negative nature is extra harmful).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Fly_or_Die said:

I find it curious that the programmers would specifically modify +19 and +22 growths to differ from the +3/-3 pattern. I think I prefer keeping all units' stat totals constant at 5* level 40, but in a way it does make sense (+19 means low growth so a positive nature is extra beneficial and +22 means high growth so a negative nature is extra harmful).

It's likely caused by rounding of some sort rather than a deliberate decision. After all, multiplying or dividing by 39, the total number of level ups, does not commonly result in nice, clean numbers. On the other hand, I'm a bit hard-pressed to find an actual set of numbers and calculation system where rounding error results in these particular values having rounding error in that direction.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

My phone overheated while playing today and won't turn back on. Bought a new phone, but it won't arrive until Monday. Is it safe to play on an Android emulator in the meantime (e.g. Bluestacks)? I'd rather not risk my account after the amount of money I've put into it so far.

 

On a side note, I've been compiling data on level 40 units that I've been training up and those I've been encountering in the Arena. It's obviously nowhere near as complete as the other resources lying around, but I'm enjoying doing this so I'll continue.

 

I've noticed something rather suspicious, though. It seems a just a bit too nice to be a coincidence.

5-star Robin has a neutral base stat of 7 in Attack, Speed, and Defense. At level 40, all three of those stats have a neutral value of 29 (+22). My data and the data on the wiki both indicate that all three of those stats also have a -4 at level 40 on a negative nature and +3 at level 40 on a positive nature.

Eirika has a similar phenomenon with Attack and Defense, which both have a base stat of 7 and a value at level 40 of 26 (+19). The data on the wiki shows that both stats have a +4 at level 40 on a positive nature and a -3 at level 40 on the negative nature.

This has me wondering if all stats with a +19 growth have +4/-3 modifiers from nature and all stats with +22 growth have +3/-4 modifiers from nature.

EDIT: Marth as +22 growth in both HP and Defense. Wiki shows a -4 negative modifier on HP and my data shows a -4 negative modifier on Defense (wiki shows -3 for Defense, but I'm obviously going to trust my own data).

Looks promising.

EDIT2: Young Tiki's Resistance, Yuria's HP, and Robin's HP also all have +22 growth. All of them have a -4 negative modifier. Yeah. Done deal.

Ahh, I see. So this is the reason why my Eirika has -4 Res instead of the usual -3. Not sure if this is a really fine trade now, hmm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry if you've answered this already but... have you double-checked the growths with other players? Is it possible that they're semi-random (like fixed for each player but different between them) same way as they were in several FEs? Mechanically it could be plausible (like a fixed set of "throws" for each player that compare to "growth rates" of unit with some system in place to guarantee the end result) and that would explain "erratic" growths. Well, you probably've checked but I'm still asking to be sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Avestus said:

Sorry if you've answered this already but... have you double-checked the growths with other players? Is it possible that they're semi-random (like fixed for each player but different between them) same way as they were in several FEs? Mechanically it could be plausible (like a fixed set of "throws" for each player that compare to "growth rates" of unit with some system in place to guarantee the end result) and that would explain "erratic" growths. Well, you probably've checked but I'm still asking to be sure.

If anyone wants to contribute, I don't mind, but I'm not going to go out of my way to ask.

As far as I'm concerned, what really matters are the level 1 stats, the level 40 stats, and any patterns I can find between them because in the end, the most important thing is "what are my stats going to look like with a maxed out character?" when given the level 1 stats from a fresh pull, and this much is not account-dependent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm pretty sure I have more than enough arena data at this point to conclude that the +4 and -4 nature modifiers are entirely tied to the growth rate.

A growth rate of +13 or +22 has -4 on a negative nature instead of -3. A growth rate of +10 or +19 has a +4 on a positive nature instead of +3.

Given how nicely spaced these are (13 and 22 differ by 9, 10 and 19 differ by 9), this phenomenon is almost guaranteed to be caused by rounding error (probably because 39 levels is a hard number to evenly divide into).

This should make it easier to figure out all variations of a character's stats at level 40 even if all the information you have is 1 character instance's nature, its level 40 stats, and the character's level 1 base stats. You might not even need to know the character's nature since valid growth rates do not appear to ever be adjacent numbers (10, 13, 15, 17, 19, 22, 24, 26, 28; spaced 2 apart except between the values that cause +/-4 where the space is 3 apart; that can't be a coincidence considering "up from 10/19" is a "big jump" for both growth rate spacing and nature modifiers as is "down from 13/22").

 

On a side topic, I was bored last night and started looking into speed tiers to figure out which characters I'd rather run +Atk instead of +Spd. I've added a page to my spreadsheet that includes most of the characters in the A+ tier and higher on the wiki's tier list.

The plus or minus preceding a character's name indicates a positive or negative nature in Spd. The plus after a character's name indicates buffs, namely Darting Blow (+6) on Camilla and Tharja and Hone Speed and Rally Speed (+4) on the characters with Blade-series tomes (Tharja and Nino).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interestingly, +28 growth rate which is also +9 from +19 doesn't exhibit the phenomenon though (like shown by effie 5 stars hp variation). So, it's not only the modulo 9 which matters :/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, C4stor said:

Interestingly, +28 growth rate which is also +9 from +19 doesn't exhibit the phenomenon though (like shown by effie 5 stars hp variation). So, it's not only the modulo 9 which matters :/

Yeah. I really wonder what kind of rounding scheme they're using that gets numbers like this.

As a note (because it just dawned on me), this means that a positive nature is exactly equivalent to +1 to the base stat plus a bump up to the next "growth tier" (and a negative nature means -1 to the base stat and a bump down):

  • Positive nature on a neutral +17 growth means the level 40 stat will be +19 (the next growth tier up from +17) plus the +1 from the level 1 bonus, for a total of +20 relative to the neutral level 1 stat. This corresponds to +3 relative to the neutral level 40 stat.
  • Positive nature on a neutral +19 growth means the level 40 stat will be +22 plus the +1 from the level 1 bonus, for a total of +23 relative to the neutral level 1 stat. This corresponds to +4 relative to the neutral level 40 stat.

EVERYTHING SUDDENLY MAKES SENSE.

Edited by Ice Dragon

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmm, many of those stat gains are almost consistent with typical FE growth rates, which are always multiple of 5%, but something seems off.

I think the easiest explanation would be that +/- natures increase a growth rate by 10%. So a base growth rate of 50% would become 40%(-)/60%(+).

With 39 levels, that would give stat gains of 15.6(-)/19.5(neutral)/23.4(+)

Which fits with the stat gain of 19 if you round up 15.6 and round down the others (16/19/23).

However, I threw all the numbers in the spreadsheet and the others just don't seem to fit. Perhaps 39 not being an easily divisible number could be the cause. Or maybe characters have already gained unseen levels? For example when going up a rarity?

Edited by VincentASM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hum, that's a really interesting way to see things. Could also explain why it doesn't seem to apply consistently to 4 stars units. Maybe they have other "growth silos" ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, C4stor said:

Hum, that's a really interesting way to see things. Could also explain why it doesn't seem to apply consistently to 4 stars units. Maybe they have other "growth silos" ?

If I ever get around to looking at 4-star stats, I'll probably have to consult the wiki for those numbers. This is making me curious (though I don't have time tonight to investigate, unfortunately).

 

17 minutes ago, VincentASM said:

Hmm, many of those stat gains are almost consistent with typical FE growth rates, which are always multiple of 5%, but something seems off.

I think the easiest explanation would be that +/- natures increase a growth rate by 10%. So a base growth rate of 50% would become 40%(-)/60%(+).

With 39 levels, that would give stat gains of 15.6(-)/19.5(neutral)/23.4(+)

Which fits with the stat gain of 19 if you round up 15.6 and round down the others (16/19/23).

However, I threw all the numbers in the spreadsheet and the others just don't seem to fit. Perhaps 39 not being an easily divisible number could be the cause. Or maybe characters have already gained unseen levels? For example when going up a rarity?

You'd need to take into account the +/-1 to the base stat into the growths, so a base growth of +19 actually results in a spread of +17/19/22 instead of +16/19/23. Since the difference between growth tiers is usually 2, but sometimes 3, that means there are no fewer than 13 tiers per 100% (+39 growth) and no more than 19 tiers, but closer to 19. This puts the distance between tiers close to 6%.

Edited by Ice Dragon

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Probably obvious for you, but you can get a lot of wiki data at once by downloading the json file which powers their IV calculator. May be easier than crawling it for hours ^^

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, C4stor said:

Probably obvious for you, but you can get a lot of wiki data at once by downloading the json file which powers their IV calculator. May be easier than crawling it for hours ^^

I'll probably end up doing that, but it feels somewhat depressing to stare at web development all day at work and then stare at a JSON file when I get home. ^^;;;

Also, thanks for reminding me the wiki has a calculator. I forgot it existed. (Let's see how accurate it is... tomorrow when I have time again.)

Edited by Ice Dragon

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...