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Ewwgene

The droprate of Lon'qu is messed up!

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I hope they didn't decrease the droprate because of the inheritance system..

I mean..200gems solely on red orbs and 0 lon'qu.  Ohh come on! When I finally got a good IV Hector..

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I got one just recently, but I know the feel. Nothing but crummy rolls, even when I focus on one orb type.

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I pull Lon'qu all the time. I think I've pulled 6 or 7 total, though I only have 2 with me now. Wish the game would give me some other reds instead.

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people have told me eliwood is really common, but I haven't gotten him a single time

some people just get different luck from others

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Yeah, 200 orbs (rough average of 50 summons) isn't a lot when we're talking about low probabilities (~1%). Somebody (i.e. you) will inevitably have 0 Lon'qus, while others have dozens : P

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Yeah, I see a lot of people talking about getting Eliwood, Lon'qu, and Florina, but they've never shown up once for me. Different luck, you know.

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I think all the 3 and 4* units have the same drop rate, but since there's a large pool, random chance just says you'll run into some more often than others.

I went 2 months without seeing Peri at all, then pulled 2 of her last week.

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There's a 58% chance of a red orb being a 3*, and there are a total of 15 red 3*s including Lon'qu. There's also a 36% chance of a red orb being a 4*, with a total of 26 red 4*s you could potentially get.

Assuming I did my math right (and I just woke up so no promises), the chance of pulling Lon'qu specifically out of a red orb is .58 x (1/15) = 0.03867 for a 3* + .36 x (1/26) = 0.01348 for a 4* with a total of a chance of 0.05251 (or 5.251%) to pull a Lon'qu of any rarity from a single red orb.

Given that each time you pull from a red orb, you have an approximately 5% chance of pulling a Lon'qu (the exact percentage fluctuates since the rates change slightly the more pulls you do without getting any 5*s), it's not unreasonable at all that you'd pull as much as you have without getting him.

EDIT: Math was never my strong suit, so if someone wanted to double check that'd be great. I'd take no offense to being pointed out as wrong if you showed me what the right way to calculate the rates is. 

Edited by MaskedAmpharos

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I have only pulled one Lon'qu I know the feeling of trying to pull someone you want and not getting them, every time I try for someone I really like they never show up.

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I don't have a single copy of either Gwen or Shanna, despite both of them being blue and available at 3*. But I have 8 copies of Olivia. Its all down to luck :/

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I've pulled only 2 Lon'qu (i need one more >_<), so I think it's luck.

Like, my dad has pulled 2 Ninians and an Azura, but he also has pulled 4 Donnels, 3 Hinatas, 3 Barsts, 3 Draugs, 2 M!Robins, 2 Cecilias, 2 Cherches, 2 Shannas and 2 Ninos. I feel bad, since those were all free orbs.... It's hard to form a team on his end :P

I don't think he minds Donnel though, he laughs because Donnel is literally a pothead. His words, not mine...

 

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That's probability for you - as long as there's a chance of something not happening, it may not happen!

Edited by Roflolxp54

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1 hour ago, MaskedAmpharos said:

There's a 58% chance of a red orb being a 3*, and there are a total of 15 red 3*s including Lon'qu. There's also a 36% chance of a red orb being a 4*, with a total of 26 red 4*s you could potentially get.

Assuming I did my math right (and I just woke up so no promises), the chance of pulling Lon'qu specifically out of a red orb is .58 x (1/15) = 0.03867 for a 3* + .36 x (1/26) = 0.01348 for a 4* with a total of a chance of 0.05251 (or 5.251%) to pull a Lon'qu of any rarity from a single red orb.

Given that each time you pull from a red orb, you have an approximately 5% chance of pulling a Lon'qu (the exact percentage fluctuates since the rates change slightly the more pulls you do without getting any 5*s), it's not unreasonable at all that you'd pull as much as you have without getting him.

EDIT: Math was never my strong suit, so if someone wanted to double check that'd be great. I'd take no offense to being pointed out as wrong if you showed me what the right way to calculate the rates is. 

According to my spreadsheet that does all the math for me, P(Lon'qu | red) = 5.26% or 1 in 19.0 for the current Blazing Shadows focus and P(Lon'qu | red) = 5.17% or 1 in 19.3 for the Battling Michalis focus, both assuming base rates. The probability decreases the longer your current 5-star drought is.

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1 minute ago, Ice Dragon said:

According to my spreadsheet that does all the math for me, P(Lon'qu | red) = 5.26% or 1 in 19.0 for the current Blazing Shadows focus and P(Lon'qu | red) = 5.17% or 1 in 19.3 for the Battling Michalis focus, both assuming base rates. The probability decreases the longer your current 5-star drought is.

Oh good, I used Blazing Shadows for reference, and that matches up. It's reassuring to know I'm still capable of basic probability half-asleep.

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5 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

According to my spreadsheet that does all the math for me, P(Lon'qu | red) = 5.26% or 1 in 19.0 for the current Blazing Shadows focus and P(Lon'qu | red) = 5.17% or 1 in 19.3 for the Battling Michalis focus, both assuming base rates. The probability decreases the longer your current 5-star drought is.

Now you put it in a geometric distribution calculator. (PMF)
In 20 summons => 67.8% Success
In 30 summons => 81.3% Success
In 40 summons => 89% Success

40 summons * 5 = 200 orbs. Assuming you didnt luck out with NO RED orbs in summon.

 

@Ice Dragon ... Do you have the probability for 3-4* ONLY Green/Colorless/Blue unit?

 

 

Edited by Ryuke

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6 minutes ago, Ryuke said:

Now you put it in a geometric distribution calculator. (PMF)
In 20 summons => 67.8% Success
In 30 summons => 81.3% Success
In 40 summons => 89% Success

40 summons * 5 = 200 orbs. Assuming you didnt luck out with NO RED orbs in summon.

 

@Ice Dragon ... Do you have the probability for 3-4* ONLY Green/Colorless/Blue unit?

P(orb is not red) = 68.92% for Blazing Shadows, meaning P(all 5 orbs are not red) = P(orb is not red) ^ 5 = 15.55%.

For Battling Michalis, P(orb is not red) = 68.42% and P(all 5 orbs are not red) = 14.99%.

Again at base rates.

Edited by Ice Dragon

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9 minutes ago, Ryuke said:

@Ice Dragon I meant. Individually.; Sorry I wasnt clear.

 

Figured theres more colorless and blue == green?

Not entirely sure which you want, so here's all of them for Blazing Shadows:

P(3-star ∩ blue) = 14.20%
P(4-star ∩ blue) = 8.55%
P(3-star ∩ green) = 10.65%
P(4-star ∩ green) = 6.75%
P(3-star ∩ colorless) = 15.39%
P(4-star ∩ colorless) = 9.00%

P(3-star | blue) = 59.17%
P(4-star | blue) = 35.62%
P(3-star | green) = 59.30%
P(4-star | green) = 37.57%
P(3-star | colorless) = 57.10%
P(4-star | colorless) = 33.39%

P(1 particular blue 3-star | blue) = 4.93%
P(1 particular blue 4-star | blue) = 1.87%
P(1 particular green 3-star | green) = 6.59%
P(1 particular green 4-star | green) = 2.50%
P(1 particular colorless 3-star | colorless) = 4.39%
P(1 particular colorless 4-star | colorless) = 1.67%
P(1 particular some-color some-star | not the same color) = 0%

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10 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

P(1 particular blue 3-star | blue) = 4.93%
P(1 particular blue 4-star | blue) = 1.87%
P(1 particular green 3-star | green) = 6.59%
P(1 particular green 4-star | green) = 2.50%
P(1 particular colorless 3-star | colorless) = 4.39%
P(1 particular colorless 4-star | colorless) = 1.67%

This...

So. The chance of Saizo is 4.39+1.67 => 6.06% ---- Great... Using PMF (Prob Dist) ... I need another 30 rolls to have a good shot (usually, its way less).

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Trust me, OP, if I could, I would trade you one of the 5 Lon'qu I've pulled (only one of them, the one I'm training up, is a 4*, while the rest are 3*). I like Lon'qu, so I'm not too annoyed when I pull him on that neverending quest for the 5* Hector, but Jesus Christ, game, can you chill?

Well, at least it's not yet another 3* Fir, Laslow, or something else depressingly common... On that note, I honestly think 3* Fir is the most common unit in the game. I've gotten far too many of her for that not to be the case.

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37 minutes ago, Extrasolar said:

Trust me, OP, if I could, I would trade you one of the 5 Lon'qu I've pulled (only one of them, the one I'm training up, is a 4*, while the rest are 3*). I like Lon'qu, so I'm not too annoyed when I pull him on that neverending quest for the 5* Hector, but Jesus Christ, game, can you chill?

Well, at least it's not yet another 3* Fir, Laslow, or something else depressingly common... On that note, I honestly think 3* Fir is the most common unit in the game. I've gotten far too many of her for that not to be the case.

Lon'qu => 404 Not Found

Fir => 404 Not Found

Laslow => Found 1

(0 Selena)

Meanwhile Bartre : Found 5

 

Edited by Ryuke

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44 minutes ago, Extrasolar said:

Trust me, OP, if I could, I would trade you one of the 5 Lon'qu I've pulled (only one of them, the one I'm training up, is a 4*, while the rest are 3*). I like Lon'qu, so I'm not too annoyed when I pull him on that neverending quest for the 5* Hector, but Jesus Christ, game, can you chill?

Well, at least it's not yet another 3* Fir, Laslow, or something else depressingly common... On that note, I honestly think 3* Fir is the most common unit in the game. I've gotten far too many of her for that not to be the case.

I mean, statistically speaking, you have a higher chance of pulling a Lon'qu of any kind than a 3* Fir (and exactly the same probability of pulling a 3* Lon'qu as a 3* Fir).

That said, it's fun hearing anecdotes about how vastly different peoples' luck can be with certain units. I must have gotten 7 or more Pallas by this point, and I know people who've gotten anywhere from 0-2 but have gotten multiple Firs while I only have one. Etc etc.

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