Astellius Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 23 minutes ago, ArCAWnite said: I'm the evil twin :( I am on Team Henry after all with his curses and hexes and whatnot XD ~Soon I'll be back to normal though! 7 minutes ago, Anime27Arts said: Maybe or maybe you'll side with Robin Or maybe all of the darkness, hexing, etc. has gotten to the Arcanite's brain, and will cause them to side with Tharja after...! 9 minutes ago, ErrantDShepherd said: Ike would be fantastic for myself at least. You need any specific color? I honestly doubt Robin will lose to Merric... It'd be ironic though... (although it would throw off my whole back the losing team, get max feathers bet. :o ) Cmon, I want my 3x multiplier again! Okay, I switched my lead over to Ike, everyone can let me know if they want me to switch back to Reinhardt or one of the others. And I'm good, I've been filling in my colorless quest when the 3x multiplier isn't there. I'm almost done with the quests. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XeKr Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 (edited) It’s still generally going to be hard to pull upsets because the losing team will eventually run out of flags, and do so faster. They also need to keep the lead manageable, which can only be done with spending flags. For example even if 10000 Linde supporters spend 200 flags as late as possible with the 3x bonus, vs. 20000 Tharja supporters spending 200 flags with just 1x, all using the team character for the 10%, Linde has to be within 220 million and we’ve seen previous blowouts in the billions. So far, Linde’s hourly peak with the 3x is around 480 million which suggests around 7000 hardcore supporters. There’s some indication the bonus kicks in when the deficit is around 10%. So for say Tharja/Camilla level characters, they can pull around 5.6 billion in the first round. A deficit of 560 million requires around 25000 Linde supporters to overwhelm 50000 Tharja supporters. And that’s if they perfectly got just outside 10% before the last hour. We get around 1500 flags per round, so overall there’s 7-8 bursts of 200 flags with the bonus. Merric for example has already had 6 bursts, hourly scores of 130-180 vs. 14-20k (not everyone can play during the 3x and some people are still earning flags, ofc). Robin should pull away soon, he’s like 5-6x the supporter base. Upsets can certainly happen, if the stars align in the last few hours, unlike the previous system where it was almost impossible (Ephraim was not really an “upset”, he was leading in the first hour vs. Chrom and was extending the lead initially, suggesting he simply had more supporters). Assuming things do work out as “expected”, Tharja might have a hard time in the finals vs. Robin. Robin can potentially conserve more flags since Merric/Leo are very weak compared to Linde/Julia, and Robin’s team doesn’t actually seem that much smaller than Tharja’s (a bit less than 2/3rd presently and will benefit later from underdogs+antiTharja factor). That smash4 bonus seems solid). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jI7MSCI6QuUPxLrQrYOxJk9cfuLuildhKurK-s7aOxE/htmlview?sle=true# (credit to u/starcrest13) The hourly gain tab gives some insight in roughly how large each team is. On another note, a lot of people on Linde’s team seem to lend their Linde, probably because they think Tharja’s team will have a lot of Tharjas? I haven’t seen any so far... Come on friends, bring something that can touch Julia/Nino. I’m giving you my Fury 3 Eirika for all your Blarblades. >_> Linde should pull slightly ahead at next update. It’s only 300 million and she seems to get around 400+ million during 3x sessions. edit post-update: rip Linde only 340 million. ;_; edit2: cantcount Edited May 12, 2017 by XeKr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solunar Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Seafarer said: If we do our jobs, Leo isn't making it to the second round. ;-) I hope Julia beats Sanaki, so I can join her when Henry is inevitably beaten into the ground. *sadface* Yes. Join Julia! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seafarer Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Just now, Solunar said: Yes. Join Julia! Was planning on it. I pulled a 5* +Atk Julia during the Hero Fest while I was trying for Hector. Now, I don't believe in signs, but if I did? That would be one. I just had to try my hardest for Henry's caw-se first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KaidenTL Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Tharja Versus Linde Results from the past 5 hours when the underdog bonus was not in effect for anyone wondering Tharja Linde Hour // Votes in millions // Difference Gained //// Votes in millions // Difference 9th 2082 //// 2095 // 10th 2251 // 169 //// 2175 // 80 11th 2401 // 150 //// 2239 // 64 12th 2539 // 138 //// 2297 // 58 13th 2668 // 129 //// 2352 // 55 conclusion is there is just over 2 time more flags gained each hour from team Tharja compared to team Linde Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyCheez3K Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 4 hours ago, ArCAWnite said: My friend list is full of SF users send help I accepted you :) CAWn't be true friends if they aren't on our side, CAWn they? Either way, appreciated (same goes to your Nino). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tybrosion Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Leo: 783,917,065 Henry: 748,159,049 Still no multiplier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solunar Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, Tybrosion said: Leo: 783,917,065 Henry: 748,159,049 Still no multiplier. What's the difference have to be before multiplier kicks in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tybrosion Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Just now, Solunar said: What's the difference have to be before multiplier kicks in? I honestly don't know myself. Apparently a gap of about 35,000,000 points isn't enough to trigger it. Maybe the gap needs to be at least 50,000,000 points but again I have no clue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SatsumaFSoysoy Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 It might work on a ratio instead of a pure number difference? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bartozio Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Just now, Tybrosion said: I honestly don't know myself. Apparently a gap of about 35,000,000 points isn't enough to trigger it. Maybe the gap needs to be at least 50,000,000 points but again I have no clue. I imagine it is a percentage of either scores, since otherwise it would have stayed at same for the first hour of Sanaki vs Julia. Not sure what percentage though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zangetsu Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 4 hours ago, Hawk King said: This 3x comeback shit is soooooo stupid. I joined Sanaki 2 hours ago because she was losing. 1st battle was considered same even though she was down by like 30 million. 2nd battle, she was down 60ish million so I got the 3x and spent some flags. Now after the 3rd battle Sanaki is winning by 140 million. The more popular characters are supposed to win. That's the whole point of this. Making a popularity contest nothing but a coin flip completely ruins everything. 3 That is an unbelievably selfish request. I get that the gauntlet feels somewhat artificial but at least it means people have a fighting chance now. Maybe you should be considerate of others because more people are enjoying themselves now. 8 hours ago, Xaos Steel Wing said: Nope, it's Julie Ann Taylor. I double checked on Behind The Voice Actors and that's what it says. My bad, I got her confuse with Florina. That's not embarrassing 37 minutes ago, Altina said: Please tell me Robin is not going to lose to Merric. With that attitude, we will. Tip the scales with better strategies bub! 3 minutes ago, Tybrosion said: Leo: 783,917,065 Henry: 748,159,049 Still no multiplier. This sounds more like the 2nd coming of Chrom VS Ephraim compare to all other matches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anime27Arts Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 45 minutes ago, komasa said: @Anime27Arts The crows have hexed Arcanite to our caws. Not even Oroboro can save this cute robot muacawcawcawcawcaw~ Defeat us and you can recruit it back (along with a few cute crows too for Leo) B-but Oboro... Well this is fire emblem so lets see if this Works start at 10:20 Henry enthusiasts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GinRei Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 The gap needed is for the losing team to have 10% fewer votes than the winning team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
immatx Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Just going off of score alone it seems like the winner of the Linde Tharja matchup will walk away with it, although it would be interesting to see what all the scores would be without the x3 bonus, cause that makes scores in separate matches irrelevant. *compares Tharja/Linde matchup to Henry/Leo matchup* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alkaid Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 If Robin loses to Merric of all people that'd be hilarious. (and sad) I really wish you could check how the other matches are doing in-game, besides just your own team's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frenzify Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Zangetsu said: This sounds more like the 2nd coming of Chrom VS Ephraim compare to all other matches. I would say the second coming of Chrom v Ephraim was Beruka the Amazing v Subaki. It's just that people didn't care. So, comparing it with Chrom v Ephraim is all we have. Don't take that away from us. :') Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SatsumaFSoysoy Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 I think Julia is breaking away from Sanaki really slowly atm, but that might just start up the back and forth again... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruruo Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Anime27Arts said: B-but Oboro... Well this is fire emblem so lets see if this Works start at 10:20 Henry enthusiasts There is no Oroboro now... only Crowboro Crows only flock to embrace true darkness. Prove yourselves Tomatoes Prince of Nohr. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuxSpes Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Just now, SatsumaFSoysoy said: I think Julia is breaking away from Sanaki really slowly atm, but that might just start up the back and forth again... I know I'm not spending my flags until there's another x3 multiplier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SatsumaFSoysoy Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 1 minute ago, LuxSpes said: I know I'm not spending my flags until there's another x3 multiplier. I used 200 just now to buff my in-camp rank a little bit. I still have 400 ready to slather all over you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astellius Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Alkaid said: If Robin loses to Merric of all people that'd be hilarious. (and sad) I really wish you could check how the other matches are doing in-game, besides just your own team's. Here's a Google Doc that has all the team scores, along with other data. They keep it up to date, it's fun to be able to see how everyone's doing. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jI7MSCI6QuUPxLrQrYOxJk9cfuLuildhKurK-s7aOxE/htmlview?sle=true# Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cute Chao Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 During the downtime where it's not got a multiplier, I've been switching Leo out to Julia to get the green flags. No one is using greens for Team Leo. Not surprising, but annoying when you need to use them five times for the flag. No one was using colourless, either, until I switched for Takumi... then of course Gordin joined in. But it only counts once -.- Whenever there's a multiplier, Leo's been switched back in and those flags are burning like crazy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zangetsu Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, Frenzify said: I would say the second coming of Chrom v Ephraim was Beruka the Amazing v Subaki. It's just that people didn't care. So, comparing it with Chrom v Ephraim is all we have. Don't take that away from us. :') Fine, it's not like there was anything worth talking about other than that match up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuxSpes Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, SatsumaFSoysoy said: I used 200 just now to buff my in-camp rank a little bit. I still have 400 ready to slather all over you. I have 705 flags waiting and my rank cannot be found it's 404 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.