SageOfAnys Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 Just now, Ice Dragon said: Actually, based on the forecast, the best chance Leo has is to burn as many flags as possible. At the current pace, Leo will barely fail to recover from the next Gaius multiplier, meaning he wants to push Gaius's multiplier a few hours earlier to give him another few hours to recover. Well that is better... still sucks though how the multiplier makes it so that spending flags on non-multiplier is basically digging a grave for you round ranking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arcanite Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 CMON LEO WE CAN DO IT GAIUS IS NOTHING BUT WEAK SAUCE WHAT A LOSER Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Dragon Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 (edited) 1 minute ago, SageOfAnys said: Well that is better... still sucks though how the multiplier makes it so that spending flags on non-multiplier is basically digging a grave for you round ranking. Given how far apart multipliers are after the initial yo-yo, most players will have way more flags than multipliers to spend them on, so it's not too bad. Â 1 minute ago, Oboro! said: CMON LEO WE CAN DO IT GAIUS IS NOTHING BUT WEAK SAUCE WHAT A LOSER Maple syrup > ketchup. Edited August 3, 2017 by Ice Dragon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SatsumaFSoysoy Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 Just now, Oboro! said: CMON LEO WE CAN DO IT GAIUS IS NOTHING BUT WEAK SAUCE WHAT A LOSER The tomato is back :o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arcanite Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 1 minute ago, SatsumaFSoysoy said: The tomato is back :o SEASHELL YEAH IT ISÂ 1 minute ago, Ice Dragon said: Maple syrup > ketchup. Die. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SatsumaFSoysoy Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Oboro! said: SEASHELL YEAH IT ISÂ So you would support Nohrian Scum just because he is Takumi's friend? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anacybele Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said: I'm basically doing the same thing: turning numbers into words. Â As for a few other things: Gaius's win in the first round definitely counts as an upset. His team was about 5% smaller and ended up winning because Frederick's team couldn't recover from the last Gaius multiplier. Forecasts for the Voting Gauntlets are actually more interesting than forecasts for the weather because the reactions of the players can affect the outcome. That said, Robin has very little hope to win. Her next multiplier is to far from the end of the round to make Corrin's team unable to recover, but not far enough from the end of the round to get one more multiplier in near the end. However, because the round has only just started, a lot can still change, but it will have to change a lot to have a meaningful effect. Leo's currently projected loss is entirely avoidable. If the current trend continues, he's still in a position for a rally in the last 2 or 3 hours to take back his rightful lead. Leo can also invest some more pressure in the next few hours to push the next Gaius multiplier earlier by about 2 or 3 hours, which can give Leo enough time to recover from the Gaius multiplier. Listen, I don't care. The point is that forecasts are not always accurate. You act like whatever you say goes here. It's starting to get irritating. I'm not denying that there's a chance Robin will lose. I actually think that's a bit more likely. But saying she and Leo have no chance are not true. Edited August 3, 2017 by Anacybele Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arcanite Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 Just now, SatsumaFSoysoy said: So you would support Nohrian Scum just because he is Takumi's friend? I didn't play Fates so I have no idea who's friendly with who But I'll just say yes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interdimensional Observer Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Anacybele said: Um, what? I don't know, I never actually played FE4. I just know a few story details. Concerning Seliph and Julia, they start at 490 Love Points- 500 results in marriage. However, their love growth is -5, which means even if you leave them adjacent to each other for a turn, which gives +5 LP, they won't gain a single point. There are two glitch-based workarounds that do let you wed the two, but their marriage dialogue is generic and nothing special happens because the developers didn't expect you to marry the duo. Why do Seliph and Julia have such a high starting love value? Well they are half siblings, perhaps it's a latent filial love? Perhaps a little mistaken eros on Seliph's part too, but if there is, it is abolished once he learns the truth of his relation to Julia. The negative growth isn't a sign of them not liking each other as the game goes on, it's just to block the chance of the two getting married. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anacybele Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Interdimensional Observer said: Concerning Seliph and Julia, they start at 490 Love Points- 500 results in marriage. However, their love growth is -5, which means even if you leave them adjacent to each other for a turn, which gives +5 LP, they won't gain a single point. There are two glitch-based workarounds that do let you wed the two, but their marriage dialogue is generic and nothing special happens because the developers didn't expect you to marry the duo. Why do Seliph and Julia have such a high starting love value? Well they are half siblings, perhaps it's a latent filial love? Perhaps a little mistaken eros on Seliph's part too, but if there is, it is abolished once he learns the truth of his relation to Julia. The negative growth isn't a sign of them not liking each other as the game goes on, it's just to block the chance of the two getting married. I see. I like to think it implies they deeply care for each other, just not in THAT way. Or they DID have some feelings for each other, it just happened before they knew they were related, a la Star Wars Luke and Leia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Dragon Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Anacybele said: I'm not denying that there's a chance Robin will lose. I actually think that's a bit more likely. But saying she and Leo have no chance are not true. Huh? Are you even reading what I write? I never once said either of them have no chance.  @Beddlam Thanks for the more level-headed answer. I'm starting to lose my cool a bit. Edited August 3, 2017 by Ice Dragon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beddlam Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Anacybele said: Listen, I don't care. The point is that forecasts are not always accurate. You act like whatever you say goes here. It's starting to get irritating. I'm not denying that there's a chance Robin will lose. I actually think that's a bit more likely. But saying she and Leo have no chance are not true. I think you misunderstand what forecasts are. They aren't telling the future, they are telling trajectory according to current evidence. They aren't set in stone, and just because they don't prove to be 100% accurate doesn't make them a bad forecast. As Ice Dragon has done, any good forecaster knows that they aren't showing you how it will be, but a range of possible outcomes with relative likely-hood. The chart shows you the results if current trends continue, but as Ice Dragon has clearly indicated in his posts, this actually points to a range of possible outcomes that, in this case, can be effected by the actions of the players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SageOfAnys Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, Oboro! said: I didn't play Fates so I have no idea who's friendly with who But I'll just say yes! Just letting you know because I think it's kinda funny, Oboro actually has a skill that boosts her damage output against Nohrians because she's one of the few especially racist Hoshidans in the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Book Bro Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said: Actually, based on the forecast, the best chance Leo has is to burn as many flags as possible. At the current pace, Leo will barely fail to recover from the next Gaius multiplier, meaning he wants to push Gaius's multiplier a few hours earlier to give him another few hours to recover. Sigh, this is stressful. But I'm going to follow your advice and just hope the rest of the team is somehow on the same page. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anacybele Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Beddlam said: I think you misunderstand what forecasts are. They aren't telling the future, they are telling trajectory according to current evidence. They aren't set in stone, and just because they don't prove to be 100% accurate doesn't make them a bad forecast. As Ice Dragon has done, any good forecaster knows that they aren't showing you how it will be, but a range of possible outcomes with relative likely-hood. The chart shows you the results if current trends continue, but as Ice Dragon has clearly indicated in his posts, this actually points to a range of possible outcomes that, in this case, can be effected by the actions of the players. I don't mean it's a bad forecast. I just think it's bad to act like that the forecast is definitely going to happen and that there's no chance it's wrong. Ice Dragon, you did say Robin had no chance. Edited August 3, 2017 by Anacybele Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Dragon Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Anacybele said: Ice Dragon, you did say Robin had no chance. Whenever I use qualifiers on my statements, I really do mean them in full. Â 39 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said: Robin has basically no chance against Corrin because of where the multiplier is going to hit. Team Robin needs to either speed up their point acquisition to move their next multiplier forward by something like 10 hours or slow down their point acquisition to move their next multiplier backwards by something like 10 hours, and neither of those are statistically plausible. "Basically no chance" is not the same as "no chance". It's not statistically plausible, but it could happen. It's like pulling a perfect-nature off-banner Ryoma. 26 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said: That said, Robin has very little hope to win. Her next multiplier is to far from the end of the round to make Corrin's team unable to recover, but not far enough from the end of the round to get one more multiplier in near the end. However, because the round has only just started, a lot can still change, but it will have to change a lot to have a meaningful effect. "Very little hope" is also not the same as "no chance". And in both cases, I gave information about exactly what needs to happen to improve that chance. It's still early in the round. Anything could still happen. If I ever meant "no chance", I would have said it straight up instead of dodging around. I'm sure I've had some flat out "yeah, no" moments in other threads you can use for reference when I really do mean "no way in hell". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrSmokestack Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said: "Basically no chance" is not the same as "no chance". It's not statistically plausible, but it could happen. It's like pulling a perfect-nature off-banner Ryoma. So that's where all my luck went. Darn. Anyone here moving to Team Leo from Elise? Edited August 3, 2017 by MrSmokestack Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GuiltyLove Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, MrSmokestack said: So that's where all my luck went. Darn. Anyone here moving to Team Leo from Elise? ME Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bartozio Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, MrSmokestack said: So that's where all my luck went. Darn. Anyone here moving to Team Leo from Elise? Me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GuiltyLove Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 Just now, Bartozio said: Me. I WAS FIRST ALSO WHERE IS UR CAMUS I HAVEN'T BEEN GETTING HIM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Glacies Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 37 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said: Maple syrup > ketchup. I mean, yes, but suntanning vampire is still better than candy thief. 40 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said: Actually, based on the forecast, the best chance Leo has is to burn as many flags as possible. At the current pace, Leo will barely fail to recover from the next Gaius multiplier, meaning he wants to push Gaius's multiplier a few hours earlier to give him another few hours to recover. Aw, crud, so you mean Leo is, for the most part, losing to Gaius? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arcanite Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 26 minutes ago, SageOfAnys said: Just letting you know because I think it's kinda funny, Oboro actually has a skill that boosts her damage output against Nohrians because she's one of the few especially racist Hoshidans in the game. I know about that skill! And she's not racist! She gets along with some Nohrian people! Even Niles of all creeps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bartozio Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 Just now, GuiltyLove said: I WAS FIRST ALSO WHERE IS UR CAMUS I HAVEN'T BEEN GETTING HIM WHY DOES THIS MATTER TO PEOPLE SO MUCH? Also, that's weird. Your Catria has been showing up for me quite a lot. I even needed her to tank a hit from a bow again, because I only had flyers left, and neither one rounded that candy man. She made sure to kill him afterwards though. WHAT DO YOU FEED HER TO BE SO BULKY? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GuiltyLove Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 Just now, Bartozio said: WHY DOES THIS MATTER TO PEOPLE SO MUCH? Â wut Just now, Bartozio said: Also, that's weird. Your Catria has been showing up for me quite a lot. I even needed her to tank a hit from a bow again, because I only had flyers left, and neither one rounded that candy man. She made sure to kill him afterwards though. Â LOL Just now, Bartozio said: WHAT DO YOU FEED HER TO BE SO BULKY? In Taiwan there are these things called "pig's blood cake". I made the same thing except with the blood of all the Reinhardts I killed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTuckingFypo Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, Oboro! said: I know about that skill! And she's not racist! She gets along with some Nohrian people! Even Niles of all creeps I think you need to play fates... and awakening... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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