Arcanite Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 1 minute ago, TheTuckingFypo said: I think you need to play fates... and awakening... ...I guess reading support conversations isn't enough? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTuckingFypo Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, Oboro! said: ...I guess reading support conversations isn't enough? Well I guess it is... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alkaid Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 1 hour ago, a bear said: Yup, I went to Corrin. Also swapped out Camus for Olivia to stick with my "use the color your team is strong to" plan. Ah, as I figured. I knew something was amiss when I didn't see a unit from you within the first 4 battles this morning. 1 hour ago, Frenzify said: Your Cordelia has been a great help whenever I got her. Not as often as you seem to be getting my Robin, though. Kinda makes me regret not getting her in the bride banner. I may be tempted to switch back to Beruka, though, as the summer Robin is also a blue unit, and I imagine most people would be entering the gauntlet with their bonus unit. Glad she's helping! Your Robin's been doing good for me. And I've noticed quite a lot blue units overall from the enemy team, aside from just S Corrin, so Beruka would likely do fine too. 1 hour ago, Ice Dragon said: I'm basically doing the same thing: turning numbers into words. As for a few other things: Gaius's win in the first round definitely counts as an upset. His team was about 5% smaller and ended up winning because Frederick's team couldn't recover from the last Gaius multiplier. Forecasts for the Voting Gauntlets are actually more interesting than forecasts for the weather because the reactions of the players can affect the outcome. That said, Robin has very little hope to win. Her next multiplier is to far from the end of the round to make Corrin's team unable to recover, but not far enough from the end of the round to get one more multiplier in near the end. However, because the round has only just started, a lot can still change, but it will have to change a lot to have a meaningful effect. Leo's currently projected loss is entirely avoidable. If the current trend continues, he's still in a position for a rally in the last 2 or 3 hours to take back his rightful lead. Leo can also invest some more pressure in the next few hours to push the next Gaius multiplier earlier by about 2 or 3 hours, which can give Leo enough time to recover from the Gaius multiplier. So it seems Robin only has 1 more multiplier left in her, or does she have more? I thought I'd be slick and not use all my flags on every multiplier this morning, despite being awake for them all, since the size of the disadvantage made me feel we might get to have more than one of the bigger ones later. But looking at it now I might have been foolish to not just spend them all besides 400 max for just 1 multiplier later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Dragon Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Alkaid said: So it seems Robin only has 1 more multiplier left in her, or does she have more? I thought I'd be slick and not use all my flags on every multiplier this morning, despite being awake for them all, since the size of the disadvantage made me feel we might get to have more than one of the bigger ones later. But looking at it now I might have been foolish to not just spend them all besides 400 max for just 1 multiplier later. Cool, new data in the forecast. Team Corrin looks to be slowing down considerably, and depending on how much Corrin slows down, that might even deny Robin her multiplier. On the other hand, if Team Corrin doesn't slow down enough, Team Robin will get the multiplier and Team Corrin won't have enough time to regain the lead without a strong rally. Ooh, this will be fun. As for the actual question, the number of multipliers Robin gets now depends on: If Team Corrin slows down enough, Robin won't get a multiplier at all. If Team Corrin doesn't slow down enough, Robin will get at least one more multiplier. If Team Robin has a good showing during the next multiplier, Team Robin will probably push Team Corrin into multiplier range, which will almost certainly push Team Robin into multiplier range for at least one hour, maybe even two. Edited August 3, 2017 by Ice Dragon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tybrosion Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 4 hours ago, JSND said: ID: 8367715649 Add me boys, Team Leo Sent you a request now that I finally crawled out of bed an hour and a half ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interdimensional Observer Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Oboro! said: I didn't play Fates so I have no idea who's friendly with who But I'll just say yes! 24 minutes ago, Oboro! said: ...I guess reading support conversations isn't enough? It appears we're opposites here. I bought the games and played them, but skipped on all the dialogue including supports. The inference I get is that you did the opposite. Interesting. I think I found a bunch of would be Leo supporters by the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SageOfAnys Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 46 minutes ago, Oboro! said: I know about that skill! And she's not racist! She gets along with some Nohrian people! Even Niles of all creeps Well... only because she's forced to now that they're in the same army and all that jazz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alkaid Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said: Cool, new data in the forecast. Team Corrin looks to be slowing down considerably, and depending on how much Corrin slows down, that might even deny Robin her multiplier. On the other hand, if Team Corrin doesn't slow down enough, Team Robin will get the multiplier and Team Corrin won't have enough time to regain the lead without a strong rally. Ooh, this will be fun. As for the actual question, the number of multipliers Robin gets now depends on: If Team Corrin slows down enough, Robin won't get a multiplier at all. If Team Corrin doesn't slow down enough, Robin will get at least one more multiplier. If Team Robin has a good showing during the next multiplier, Team Robin will probably push Team Corrin into multiplier range, which will almost certainly push Team Robin into multiplier range for at least one hour, maybe even two. Well, it'll be cool if team Robin manages to pull it off. Or even just get 1-2 good multipliers later, cause I can already tell my cumulative score is gonna get tanked by team Leo/Gaius members once I join Corrin if Robin loses. lol So this round is likely my last chance to squeeze in a lot of points besides the early swing hours next round. Not much doubt Leo/Gaius will get a ton of multipliers and Corrin will get very few besides the early swing hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rezzy Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 1 hour ago, MrSmokestack said: So that's where all my luck went. Darn. Anyone here moving to Team Leo from Elise? 1 hour ago, GuiltyLove said: ME 1 hour ago, Bartozio said: Me. I'm on Team Leo. Are we friends? I really hope Leo overcomes this multiplier. It seems it only serves to screw over close matches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zangetsu Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 50 minutes ago, Oboro! said: I know about that skill! And she's not racist! She gets along with some Nohrian people! Even Niles of all creeps Pretty sure she's racist, especially in Conquest. Just like her hubby. Granted they do over it other routes but still. Then again considering the garbage story that Conquest's has, is it really surprising that people pretend it doesn't exist? Wait, why are we talking about Oboro. The character, not her worshiper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Dragon Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 Okay, I've put together as much as I could from what we currently have this round and what happened last round. Mostly, I forgot earlier to account for the fact that the larger team tends to let off the gas after gaining the lead. Here's my current ~~synthesized~~ forecast (which is going to be different from the lines on the graphs): Last round, Robin's and Leo's gains drastically decreased after gaining the lead, down to less than half of their average gains before gaining the lead. If Corrin's gains slow down by half after gaining the lead, we can probably expect Robin to miss out on the multiplier. If Robin does get the multiplier (Corrin slowed down by less than ~30%), it's a toss-up based on if a yo-yo occurs and where it lands when it stops. Gaius v. Leo is a complete toss-up right now because Leo slowing down by half still puts the score uncomfortably close to giving Gaius another multiplier. Leo needs to slow down by about 70% after gaining the lead to comfortably coast to a victory. If Gaius does get another multiplier, it depends on how many hours are left and how long they yo-yo. This will be fun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GuiltyLove Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, Rezzy said: I'm on Team Leo. Are we friends? I really hope Leo overcomes this multiplier. It seems it only serves to screw over close matches. No I don't feel like digging up my ID so I'll just add you. My username is Togekiss. Let me know what your ID is and I'll add you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rezzy Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, GuiltyLove said: No I don't feel like digging up my ID so I'll just add you. My username is Togekiss. Let me know what your ID is and I'll add you Okay, I'll send it once I get off work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcsilas Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 49 minutes ago, Oboro! said: ...I guess reading support conversations isn't enough? But you miss out on Oboro's gorgeous animations! also Spearmaster Oboro - which is Oboro with a cool flag on her back! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrSmokestack Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 1 hour ago, GuiltyLove said: ME 1 hour ago, Bartozio said: Me. 11 minutes ago, Rezzy said: I'm on Team Leo. Are we friends? I really hope Leo overcomes this multiplier. It seems it only serves to screw over close matches. Roll call! I'm pretty sure you're not on my list, so if you want my FC it's 2970-63-1297. Right now my lead is still Bride Cordelia. 1 hour ago, GuiltyLove said: In Taiwan there are these things called "pig's blood cake". I made the same thing except with the blood of all the Reinhardts I killed Catria's Fury knows no bounds... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alkaid Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 1 hour ago, GuiltyLove said: In Taiwan there are these things called "pig's blood cake". I made the same thing except with the blood of all the Reinhardts I killed That sounds delicious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GuiltyLove Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 Just now, Alkaid said: That sounds delicious I wonder if there are any in NYC... You wanna meet and try some? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bartozio Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 1 hour ago, GuiltyLove said: In Taiwan there are these things called "pig's blood cake". I made the same thing except with the blood of all the Reinhardts I killed Other people might get freaked out by this, or get very annoyed that they keep being matched with two fliers against two bows. I on the other hand will gladly take what I can get. (I might need to put Hector and Cecilia to work and as for a recipe when I finally get to promoting my own Catria though). 9 minutes ago, Rezzy said: I'm on Team Leo. Are we friends? I really hope Leo overcomes this multiplier. It seems it only serves to screw over close matches. Don't think so? My username is Bardth, FC is 9221424579, lead is Camus. Let me know if you want another lead though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GuiltyLove Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Bartozio said: Other people might get freaked out by this, or get very annoyed that they keep being matched with two fliers against two bows. I on the other hand will gladly take what I can get. (I might need to put Hector and Cecilia to work and as for a recipe when I finally get to promoting my own Catria though). There's nothing to be scared of. I won't bite... ━━╋⊂（ ´ー｀）彡Ψ(ΦД| |Φ;)Ψ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anacybele Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 39 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said: Cool, new data in the forecast. Team Corrin looks to be slowing down considerably, and depending on how much Corrin slows down, that might even deny Robin her multiplier. On the other hand, if Team Corrin doesn't slow down enough, Team Robin will get the multiplier and Team Corrin won't have enough time to regain the lead without a strong rally. Ooh, this will be fun. As for the actual question, the number of multipliers Robin gets now depends on: If Team Corrin slows down enough, Robin won't get a multiplier at all. If Team Corrin doesn't slow down enough, Robin will get at least one more multiplier. If Team Robin has a good showing during the next multiplier, Team Robin will probably push Team Corrin into multiplier range, which will almost certainly push Team Robin into multiplier range for at least one hour, maybe even two. Now this makes sense. I hope we get at least one more multiplier! Robin winning would make my day after poor Freddy lost and stuff. The last few days just have been rather cruddy for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alkaid Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, GuiltyLove said: I wonder if there are any in NYC... You wanna meet and try some? Maybe in Chinatown? As long as he doesn't Death Blow my stomach Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GuiltyLove Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 Just now, Alkaid said: Maybe in Chinatown? As long as he doesn't Death Blow my stomach I'll give you a Death Blow if you know what I mean Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junkhead Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 How do you stay on top while trying to save flags, again? Is the bonus timer thingy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arcanite Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, Soul~! said: How do you stay on top while trying to save flags, again? Is the bonus timer thingy? Yes I did 200 flags on the multiplier 4 times and I'm in top 5k in Leo E Z P Z 8 minutes ago, GuiltyLove said: I'll give you a Death Blow if you know what I mean Isn't darting blow faster? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GuiltyLove Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Oboro! said: Isn't darting blow faster? Some people might like to take things slowly tho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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