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is FE more about luck than strategy?


Harvey
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So by now, most of us are aware that FE uses RNG for basically everything related to combat. So since RNG means Random Number Generator, this means that hit rates, criticals and avoid are all based on chance and the level up growths are also based on chance as well.

With that in mind, there's one thing that I'm wondering after seeing a lot of comments from almost everywhere except around here...is FE more about luck than strategy?

Think about it this way. You make a plan that you think this will work and there is no way that it can get screwed up. But because its RNG, there's a good chance that the plan won't work out like how you expected and as a result, you may end up being screwed.

So if the whole combat is based on luck, where can the strategy apply here?

Now this isn't anything that sounds like a clickbait or something like a rant. Its just that since the FE games are all about RNG, it makes me wonder just what the strategy is besides basic tactics such as item limits as well as exp limits.

 

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More than anything else, the goal of your strategy is to create a setup that will place the odds the most in your favor.  However, the RNG ensures that no plan is always foolproof, and so you're expected to have some sort of backup plan in mind.

Though, when you bring up luck reliance, it reminds me of one moment from Chapter 8x of Binding Blade that really ticked me off.  About halfway through the map, there's an enemy Myrmidon with a Killing Edge who does not move from his position until attacked.  You want to be prepared to take a lot of damage from its Critical Hits, so naturally your first instinct will be to send a Knight like Bors or Barthe to soak it up.  However, backing up this Myrmidon is a Mercenary with an Armorslayer, who will probably will your Knight if the Myrmidon doesn't.  So clearly the game doesn't want you to use a Knight here, and the design choice demands that you take a strategic leap of faith by sending someone else with worse defense into the Myrmidon and other enemies.  In what way is that fair?

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9 minutes ago, Von Ithipathachai said:

More than anything else, the goal of your strategy is to create a setup that will place the odds the most in your favor.  However, the RNG ensures that no plan is always foolproof, and so you're expected to have some sort of backup plan in mind.

Yeah, this. The strategy is to create a set-up that puts the odds in your favor. And if it doesn't work because of a little bad luck, you have to come up with something else. More strategy. So there is a lot of luck, but there's still a little more strategy, imo.

Though I won't deny that FE sometimes takes the luck factor too far. I'm looking at you, PoR Black Knight. Who the hell had the bright idea to make it so the only way Ike could beat him was to get lucky and trigger Aether?

Edited by Anacybele
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Fire Emblem certainly isn't a luck-free game like Advance Wars. However, the fact that things are luck based in a lot of ways just makes it more strategic as well. It's another thing you get to factor into every combat. The Weapon Triangle itself relies on the fact that if you don't adhere to it, your luck is going to be substantially worse. 

In Advance wars, there is one perfect way to win every level. You could play the same level a hundred times, use the same strategy, and get the same outcomes. None of your attacks miss, AI follows the same rules every time, and special powers trigger on a set schedule instead of randomly. Ultimately, one of the things that makes Fire Emblem unique (and in my opinion, better) is that every time you play a chapter, things are different. That one enemy with the stupidly low hit rate will actually land a blow, or a lucky critical will pave a quicker path to victory. 

And yeah, good design would avoid strategically dubious challenges like the Black Knight or, even worse, recruiting Karla, but when the games are as they should be, they feature just enough chance to make it an interesting experience every time. Things could be worse!

Actually, I'm looking forward to a Fire Emblem with random enemy placement and stats. That would be so cool (and hard to speedrun).

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No, its still more about strategy. The RNG aspect comes in with the fact that you need to have back up plans if the original doesnt work. If you miss that attack, and are screwed because you were entirely counting on it working, then that is your own fault for not planning ahead. That is a part of the strategy.

Every strategy board game I have played, and most strategy games I have played have had a RNG aspect to them. It helps make the game a little more unpredictable. It forces you to plan ahead, and have some ideas in your head if the first one doesnt work.

At the same time, games entirely reliant on RNG can be entirely about luck. Risk being the one that comes to mind here. You could be outnumbering your oponnent 5 to 1, and I have still seen that defending army win due to entirely lucky roles. No level of strategy in that game can overcome bad luck. And that is the other thing with RNG. You can overcome it with good strategy.

Lets take a hypothetical example with Fates. You have a character that has been hard to hit. You havent been able to land an attack on him, the RNG has been stacked against you the entire time. So you start debuffing. Daggers, AoE debuffs, and even buffs on your own characters. Through that you increase your odds of hitting or even critting on the attack, therefore overcoming the RNG that has been stacked against you.

So no, FE isnt more about luck. Its entirely about strategy, RNG is just another piece you have to plan for in your strategy.

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If your strategy is lacking, you'll need to rely on luck more. There's very few instances in the series where you actively need to be lucky to succeed, I'm looking at the early chapters of FE11 H5. There'll always be that 1% that will screw you over, but if you're relying on dodging 4 70%'s in a row and critting two of them back, your plan probably isn't solid enough - or you're drafting!

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1 hour ago, Anacybele said:

Though  I won't deny that FE sometimes takes the luck factor too far. I'm looking at you, PoR Black Knight. Who the hell had the bright idea to make it so the only way Ike could beat him was to get lucky and trigger Aether?

Ike doesn't need one single Aether if he has maxed strength. He will kill BK in the very last enemy phase. However it requires that he hits all ten times and a hit isn't guaranteed (80s hitrate). Mist must tank the spear halberdier and kill the reinforcement bishop with physic.
 

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Just now, Reimu Hakurei said:

Ike doesn't need one single Aether if he has maxed strength. He will kill BK in the very last enemy phase. However it requires that he hits all ten times and a hit isn't guaranteed (80s hitrate). Mist must tank the spear halberdier and kill the reinforcement bishop with physic.
 

That requires luck too. Ike won't always get max str.

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1 hour ago, Von Ithipathachai said:

About halfway through the map, there's an enemy Myrmidon with a Killing Edge who does not move from his position until attacked.  You want to be prepared to take a lot of damage from its Critical Hits, so naturally your first instinct will be to send a Knight like Bors or Barthe to soak it up.  However, backing up this Myrmidon is a Mercenary with an Armorslayer, who will probably will your Knight if the Myrmidon doesn't.  So clearly the game doesn't want you to use a Knight here, and the design choice demands that you take a strategic leap of faith by sending someone else with worse defense into the Myrmidon and other enemies.  In what way is that fair?

Literally just send one of your Paladins there with a good weapon. Jerrot and possibly Marcus should be able to handle it (If Marcus has a Silver Lance, he can OHKO the Myrmidon)

Anyway, to anwser the topic question, FE is still more strategy than luck. With RNG present, you have to always have a back up plan available and consider all possible outcomes. When you think about it, that applies to irl war too. Just because you may have the advantage doesn't automatically mean you win.

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15 minutes ago, Reimu Hakurei said:

Ike doesn't need one single Aether if he has maxed strength. He will kill BK in the very last enemy phase. However it requires that he hits all ten times and a hit isn't guaranteed (80s hitrate). Mist must tank the spear halberdier and kill the reinforcement bishop with physic.
 

That requires he be able to take more than one round of combat (I've personally had Ikes who were unable to do this) per turn, that requires he capped Str, that requires Mist be strong enough to tank (and her Def isn't that great) and kill, etc.

Which are conditions you may or may not be able to fulfill.  They should have either A) not imposed a time limit or B) freely allowed you to use other units besides Ike to attack him (since Mist cannot damage him as the game is).  Doing both is what makes this as excessively luckbased as it is.

 

Edit: As for the actual question, no it's not more luckbased than strategybased (aside from the PoR Burger King).  If you're using a strategy that requires you consistently dodge 80's or something, it can work in theory, but it's not a very good strategy.   A good strategy doesn't rely on luck nearly as much as a bad strategy.

Edited by Glaceon Mage
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Ike can easily fulfill the conditions to take two hits. Reaching level 18 at this point which is his average level where his strength is capped is not impossible either.
Of course I was talking about a nihil Ike. It's also possible but much harder to have an Ike at this point who has 55+ HP (usually requires angelic robe) and maxed defense to take one regular and one luna hit by BK. 
However it's correct that it's harder to have a prepared Mist than a prepared Ike for this battle because she normally can't take two physical hits without angelic robe.

If Ike has 85 hitrate against BK, he has ~20% chance to hit all ten times. Tbf it's less than I expected.

Edited by Reimu Hakurei
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4 minutes ago, Reimu Hakurei said:

Ike can easily fulfill the conditions to take two hits. Reaching level 18 at this point which is his average level where his strength is capped is not impossible either.
Of course I was talking about a nihil Ike. It's also possible but much harder to have an Ike at this point who has 55+ HP and maxed defense to take one regular and one luna hit by BK. 
However it's correct that it's harder to have a prepared Mist than a prepared Ike for this battle because she normally can't take two physical hits without angelic robes.

If Ike has 85 hitrate against BK, he has ~20% chance to hit all ten times. Tbf it's less than I expected.

It's actually more like 64% to hit 10 85's in PoR, you're not accounting for True Hit.  85 is actually 95.65.

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Just now, Armagon said:

Literally just send one of your Paladins there with a good weapon.  Zelot and possibly Marcus should be able to handle it (If Marcus has a Silver Lance, he can OHKO the Myrmidon)

Anyway, to anwser the topic question, FE is still more strategy than luck.  With RNG present, you have to always have a back up plan available and consider all possible outcomes.  When you think about it, that applies to real war too.  Just because you may have the advantage doesn't automatically mean you win.

But I don't want those crappy pre-promotes to steal kills

Though, I guess if it means preventing everyone else from dying, I guess it's not too bad.  ;_;

They might also make the boss of the same chapter a bit easier, now that I think about it.

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1 minute ago, Von Ithipathachai said:

They might also make the boss of the same chapter a bit easier, now that I think about it

Dieck or Rutger can handle the boss pretty well, assuming they are promoted, and in my runs, Dieck is usually promoted by the time i get to Ch.8x. Oh yeah, i should mention that i always promote ASAP instead of waiting until Lv.20, regardless of the game. So my "strategy" for taking down the boss in Ch.8x may not work for people who wait until Lv.20 to promote.

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Just now, Armagon said:

Dieck or Rutger can handle the boss pretty well, assuming they are promoted, and in my runs, Dieck is usually promoted by the time i get to Ch.8x. Oh yeah, i should mention that i always promote ASAP instead of waiting until Lv.20, regardless of the game. So my "strategy" for taking down the boss in Ch.8x may not work for people who wait until Lv.20 to promote.

What I did was train Dieck to Level 20 at Chapter 7's Arena, promote him to Hero, and not use him again until Chapter 11A.  Then, on that chapter, I dropped him over the western fence by that chapter's Arena using Shanna, so that he could go Dieck Nukem on all the enemies' butts and make getting everything from the chapter much easier (though, in hindsight, it was probably rather unnecessary, seeing as some of those rewards, like the extra promotion items, weren't even used).

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It's pretty naive to think that the existence of chance-based factors means there isn't strategy. Strategy is putting the odds in your favor and having backup plans for the times when the odds don't go in your favor.

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Strategy. FE works more like a precise game than a game of chances. You're able to predict with a high degree of accuracy what enemy units are going to do next by manipulating the AI and calculating damage, and the RNG is very benevolent toward players with hit and crit chances (yes, I have been 1% critted and missed a 90% hit chance attack, but compare that to Wesnoth, where your max chance of hitting is 80% and your usual chance of hitting, when in advantage, is 60%). Chances are much more scaled in the player's favor, you'll hit much more than you will miss.

Even if you are RNG screwed, the game is balanced enough for your characters to still work out most of the time. Luck isn't a big factor.

Games like XCOM are a bit more luck reliant than FE, but not much, whereas Wesnoth relies much on luck (60% chance of hitting -at best- isn't that high, chances are your plans will fail if you have no backup strategy prepared for when things go wrong).

Edited by Rapier
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I'd say no, for reasons already stated. In fact, the only stuff that really stands out where you actively have to luck out to succeed are HHM BBD, PoR BK, and Ignatius's paralogue in lategame.

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Depends on the game. FE5's heals staves having a hit rate for example. Like some others said, the goal is to put yourself in a favorable position. Though the older games are more luck based than the rest. FE3 being the worst offender in my opinion.

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1 hour ago, Køkø said:

Depends on the game. FE5's heals staves having a hit rate for example. Like some others said, the goal is to put yourself in a favorable position. Though the older games are more luck based than the rest. FE3 being the worst offender in my opinion.

Why would you say this? In FE3 you have access to a broken army of demigods (especially in Book 2). Most of your deaths will come from carelessness.

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23 minutes ago, Jedi said:

Why would you say this? In FE3 you have access to a broken army of demigods (especially in Book 2). Most of your deaths will come from carelessness.

Demigods? The stat caps are 20, can you explain yourself? Maybe it's just me, but the dragon chapters in Book 2 give me nightmares.  The Barbarians rarely miss, and NEVER get hurt by their Devil Axes.  Wyverns have 14 range, and I think Dragonbreath negates the defense stat? It hits really hard, that I remember. Also dragons in the arena? WTF

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9 minutes ago, Køkø said:

Demigods? The stat caps are 20, can you explain yourself? Maybe it's just me, but the dragon chapters in Book 2 give me nightmares.  The Barbarians rarely miss, and NEVER get hurt by their Devil Axes.  Wyverns have 14 range, and I think Dragonbreath negates the defense stat? It hits really hard, that I remember. Also dragons in the arena? WTF

Thing is, dragons are supposed to be tough. Even in Shadows of Valentia, Fire Dragons and Dagons are scary as hell (unless you Tigerstance them). FE3 wasn't that hard at all, besides that one desert with the Flying Dragons. Stat caps being at 20 may not seem like much but it's relative to the game (20 is also the stat cap in Thracia 776). Marth is broken. Warp is broken. Use the Starsphere shards for better level ups. Tiki and Bantu can remain in their dragon forms for a good while.

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6 minutes ago, Armagon said:

Thing is, dragons are supposed to be tough. Even in Shadows of Valentia, Fire Dragons and Dagons are scary as hell (unless you Tigerstance them). FE3 wasn't that hard at all, besides that one desert with the Flying Dragons. Stat caps being at 20 may not seem like much but it's relative to the game (20 is also the stat cap in Thracia 776). Marth is broken. Warp is broken. Use the Starsphere shards for better level ups. Tiki and Bantu can remain in their dragon forms for a good while.

I know. My point was that dragons are really broken in this game. You need lucky dodges to deal with those chapters. Can you explain how Marth is broken? And I thought Warp shenanigans were more of FE1/11 thing. Bantu is garbage and Tiki isn't available until the last of those chapters. I heard he's good for dealing with dragons before Tiki joins but I've never used him. It wouldn't help with the Barbarians anyway. The salt in the wound is that I frequently miss them at 70-90 range and they consistently hit at sub 50. And as aforementioned, they NEVER get hurt by the Devil Axe. Maybe it's just me but it happens every time, every playthrough. 

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