Fire Emblem Heroes: The Mafia Gacha: The Game Thread

[Shinori]

Editted the previous post.

[Bluedoom]

Right, so I'm pretty sure that Faerie Knight is town because the persuader shenanigans are just too weird to assume that scum!FK planned this through. Also assuming Scum!FK, he didn't even bother saving his buddy Michelaar so ??? And if he didn't bother saving then why didn't he bus? These FK scumreads make no sense to me and I know I'm repeating myself but I've gotta defend my townreads.  That D1 aggression especially doesn't make sense coming from scum.

Proto is likely town because of that dayvig plus flavour? Idr another character using Dime Thunder though and Prims flipped Olwen. Still,  scum having dayvig+persuader and my role existing makes the game swingy as fuck and also I'd really doubt the balance of this game lol.

 

Refa is a bad lynch today and I don't want to repeat myself. I'm pretty sure the case on Refa at this point is literally because he ended up on the wrong side of the D1 flip.  The idea that he engineered the 'townslip' and got it circulated and planned is just ??? Refa is a lazy person but as mafia he is even more lazy, he wouldn't go through the pain of saving Michelaar when Michelaar didn't even bother trying to play the game. Even if you assume Scum!Refa, where did the last scum(I'm assuming a 3-,man team here since that's normal for a 13p game) vote? There was clearly a bus, I don't get where people get this idea that Mich's scumbuddies tried to save him when Mich played like he had given up. 

 

Mack is also likely town just because of the general tone in his posts and his line of thought. The explanation for not sharing his thoughts ("The Mafia might night kill me if I'm right") only to then share them anyway isn't something that comes from mafia. There's also the part where he leaves with his Elieson vote at phase end even though he comments that Pika isn't the ideal lynch but is better than nothing.  This is wtf coming from Scum!Mack if Pika's the counterwagon to scum and you STILL don't vote for the counterwagon of your scumbuddy. 

 

 

 

[BBM]

bleh my reads have been trash

I think tbh the most likely persuader explanation is persuader not being able to hammer and also not realizing that it would get announced in-thread

also when FK made his last post in D1 (about an hour and a half left), Pika was beating Michelaar in votes. I don't see why scum would bus in that situation? in my experience when scum bus D1, they don't bus at end of phase in a very swingy situation that could go either way- they either bus when it's obvious their buddy is getting lynched anyways, or they bus early D1 thinking that they'll unvote when their buddy's play gets better, but it never does and they can't find an excuse to get off the wagon. soooometimes if their buddy is behind by like two votes, thinking the other dude will get lynched regardless, but then their buddy gets lynched after all, but it's pretty risky.

in fact rereading the situation I actually think FK's end-of-day is really suspicious. FK says "Pika's return is decent so I would vote Michelaar over him 'if it comes to that' but Mack is still the worst so I'll keep my vote there". But Pika is leading in votes at this point so it actually has 'come to that' where if he believed Michelaar was more likely to be scum he should have changed his vote as opposed to keeping it on Mack, who wasn't going to be lynched at that point. this seems kind of like distancing from Michelaar in case Michelaar got lynched but trying to stay away from being on either wagon

also if FK isn't scum then 2 out of the following people are scum: Bartozio, Pika, Mack, Junko, Refa, GP. obviously I'm wrong about one of my townreads here anyways but like ?_? I guess I would go with 2/3 of Junko/Refa/Pika but I wouldn't feel good about that

no lynching puts too much on the cop to get a guilty or have a bunch of clears lined up to make me comfortable with it. for all we know scum rolecopped the cop n1 and is going to kill them tonight idk

##Vote: Faerie Knight

[BBM]

numbers are probably 8/2; no lynch today puts us worst case 3/2 LYLO in D5, whereas mislynch today puts us worst case 4/2 MYLO in D4. theoretically the cop could have 4 inspects by D5 which would be auto-win with flipped godfather but ehhhh

[BBM]

actually you know what I think Pika is like significantly more likely to be town than that. the "scum Pika lets himself be lynched to save his buddy with the better role" idea doesn't make sense. think about it, if we'd lynched Pika we'd all have been like "huh why would scum!Pika not vote Michelaar to save himself this only makes sense if they're buddies" and we'd have lynched Michelaar right away. it would have been better for him to just not post at all and then we would have passively kind of thought that Michelaar was less likely to be scum due to being a counterwagon to scum.

in comparison town Pika not voting Michelaar is bad play but I can understand the feeling when you're new and you know you're not playing well and you'd rather just get lynched and have it over with than someone else get lynched whom you think is town and might contribute more. I did the same thing in Theatre Mafia with I think either Core or Rapier.

so yeah one of Junko/GP's votes are probably a bus I guess and I don't know whose.

Junko voted Michelaar when people thought phase was about to end with a "yeah he's scummy GP's right" kind of vote that could easily be a bus and then just never really unvoted. I don't think that the argument that he could have switched to Marth at any point holds too much water because through most of the day it still seemed like Michelaar was going to be lynched. The main thing that gives me pause is that he posted when the wagons were tied 4-4 (before Refa switched to Pika) and defended Pika and stuck on Michelaar when he could have switched to swing the wagons to 5-3. He hadn't said too much about Pika before that (just that new players always waffle and that he'd like to see more from him) so it's not like it would have been that hard to change votes?

In comparison GP's vote is better but at that point Refa had switched to Pika so he was already leading 5-4, so she might have thought that he was safe at that point? ehhh idk. Other stuff I said near the start of the phase about the GP-Michelaar interactions is still true too; the back-and-forth with her getting more confident in her vote reads more townie. also little things like "sorry if this was worded harshly" are things I feel like scum wouldn't say to their buddy in thread. they'd post more of an in-depth apology in their private communication I think as opposed to a one-liner in thread.

i'm leaning towards Junko but *shrug emoji* wouldn't vote him before FK

[Junk]

welp my reads outside of michelarr are terrible

 

I'm not even sure if there was a bus on the Michelarr wagon at this point. As you pointed out BBM, GP's interactions with michelaar would be really weird as scum and for Bartizio while his original michelarr vote wasn't the best, he made a post later where he committed to michelarr when he could have switched to pika quite easily. If there was a bus vote I'd probably lean towards Bartizio pretty much for the same reason you'd lean towards me BBM :P but overall honestly think there might have not been a bus because GP's interactions don't make sense as scum unless she really wants her fellow scum to die heh and I don't get why Bartizio scum would continue the bus when it would have been really easy to switch to the counter wagon (unless both are scum but I really don't think that's true).

Everyone in this game has something that gives me a pause, I agree FK looks the worst to me if we go off his broader actions (assuming BBM's persuade theory) but I don't see why as scum he'd put that much effort into defending himself and I feel his FOS towards elie seems town reactionary as it pretty much escalates the debate when I feel like scum would want elie to shut up.

IDK why Refa would want to commit to the townslip as scum so much and I thought his defense against GP was pretty good although the original M

Mack's tone seems really genuine and the only thing I can think of that he's done that MIGHT be scummy is his decision to keep his vote on elie at day1 (if he voted pika wouldn't that have resulted in a no lynch and make Mack and Michelarr look really bad?) but this is a what if so it doesn't mean much.

I'm okay with a FK lynch today since I think some of the reasoning against him is good even if I have some strong doubts and everyone else I honestly don't know because I can't find any actual scum intent in anything they did. 

 

[BBM]

FK actually shuts down the argument with Elie after a few posts; he's like "enough of this". that was part of why I voted him on D1; he seemed overly eager to stop it as soon as possible. Also defending yourself a lot is exactly what scum would do...? they care more about defending themselves than finding scum .

[Refa]

I hate life.

7 hours ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

Proto is likely town because of that dayvig plus flavour? Idr another character using Dime Thunder though and Prims flipped Olwen. Still,  scum having dayvig+persuader and my role existing makes the game swingy as fuck and also I'd really doubt the balance of this game lol.

My big issue with this is that Proto being town would imply that town has Masons (one of which has a Dayvig)/Innocent Child/Cop/Other stuff.   Assuming 3 scum and Town!Proto, it'd be a 10/3 game where scum would need 3 mislynches and a misvig to win.  However, they'd only be able to lynch between 7 members of town (BTW, that's assuming that all of these townies have alignment neutral roles), which could potentially be even less depending on cop scans.  I'm a hijacker (w/limitations, but I don't want to claim those until later on), so a Day 2 massclaim (assuming a mislynch on Day 1) would completely break the game since I'd have AT LEAST a 50% chance of targeting scum on Night 2.  That would be fucking stupid, and the only way I can see this resembling balance is if Proto was scum (means that there's one less confirmed town AND that there's not a mason dayvig).

##Vote: Proto

5 hours ago, BBM said:

bleh my reads have been trash

I think tbh the most likely persuader explanation is persuader not being able to hammer and also not realizing that it would get announced in-thread

also when FK made his last post in D1 (about an hour and a half left), Pika was beating Michelaar in votes. I don't see why scum would bus in that situation? in my experience when scum bus D1, they don't bus at end of phase in a very swingy situation that could go either way- they either bus when it's obvious their buddy is getting lynched anyways, or they bus early D1 thinking that they'll unvote when their buddy's play gets better, but it never does and they can't find an excuse to get off the wagon. soooometimes if their buddy is behind by like two votes, thinking the other dude will get lynched regardless, but then their buddy gets lynched after all, but it's pretty risky.

in fact rereading the situation I actually think FK's end-of-day is really suspicious. FK says "Pika's return is decent so I would vote Michelaar over him 'if it comes to that' but Mack is still the worst so I'll keep my vote there". But Pika is leading in votes at this point so it actually has 'come to that' where if he believed Michelaar was more likely to be scum he should have changed his vote as opposed to keeping it on Mack, who wasn't going to be lynched at that point. this seems kind of like distancing from Michelaar in case Michelaar got lynched but trying to stay away from being on either wagon

##Vote: Faerie Knight

I'd sheep it.

2 hours ago, Junk said:

welp my reads outside of michelarr are terrible

I'm not even sure if there was a bus on the Michelarr wagon at this point. As you pointed out BBM, GP's interactions with michelaar would be really weird as scum and for Bartizio while his original michelarr vote wasn't the best, he made a post later where he committed to michelarr when he could have switched to pika quite easily. If there was a bus vote I'd probably lean towards Bartizio pretty much for the same reason you'd lean towards me BBM :P but overall honestly think there might have not been a bus because GP's interactions don't make sense as scum unless she really wants her fellow scum to die heh and I don't get why Bartizio scum would continue the bus when it would have been really easy to switch to the counter wagon (unless both are scum but I really don't think that's true).

Everyone in this game has something that gives me a pause, I agree FK looks the worst to me if we go off his broader actions (assuming BBM's persuade theory) but I don't see why as scum he'd put that much effort into defending himself and I feel his FOS towards elie seems town reactionary as it pretty much escalates the debate when I feel like scum would want elie to shut up.

IDK why Refa would want to commit to the townslip as scum so much and I thought his defense against GP was pretty good although the original M

I'm not scumreading Bartozio/Green Poet either, but I just can't see why scum wouldn't bus Michelaar (not immediately but by the end of the day).

I don't see why as scum he'd put so much effort into defending myself?  Wha-

You didn't finish your sentence on me.

[BBM]

refa your math is wrong if there are 6 non-confirmed townies and 3 scum on D2 after a mislynch that would mean you have a 3/(3+6) = 33% chance to hit scum, not 50%

plus hijacking scum doesn't even necessarily mean anything; you'd have to specifically hijack the person taking the kill so that gives you a 1/9 = 11% chance to hijack the scum kill

not mention that scum have a hooker so they could just hook you (town had a safeguard but then they could just kill you)

from what proto implied I think he got the dayvig only because prims died? can he confirm this?

[BBM]

btw imo you should hijack one of GP/Junko to hit the other. add Proto and Bartozio into the mix of people to hijack if you want (though I think they're town) but don't hijack anything to them

I don't think the daimthunder flavour is particularly indicative cuz if Proto really is scum for all we know he just triggered it in in his role PM and then posted some fake flavour. but I don't think scum have a dayvig and a persuader

[BBM]

fuck actually I don't know if you should even act considering we don't know who the cop is

what did you do last night?

[Refa]

2 minutes ago, BBM said:

refa your math is wrong if there are 6 non-confirmed townies and 3 scum on D2 after a mislynch that would mean you have a 3/(3+6) = 33% chance to hit scum, not 50%

plus hijacking scum doesn't even necessarily mean anything; you'd have to specifically hijack the person taking the kill so that gives you a 1/9 = 11% chance to hijack the scum kill

not mention that scum have a hooker so they could just hook you (town had a safeguard but then they could just kill you)

from what proto implied I think he got the dayvig only because prims died? can he confirm this?

fuck i shouldn't have tried to do math right after waking up.  fair enough on that.

still don't think proto is town because of what i said about masons/innocent child/cop.  it'd be way too many confirmed town in a 13p game.

i dunno, i get what you're saying but it'd put scum into a really shitty situation.  not as dumb as i thought it was but yeah.

last part is irrelevant IMO.  as scum, proto would kill prims to get the dayvig.  as town, someone else would kill prims because he was being townread.

3 minutes ago, BBM said:

btw imo you should hijack one of GP/Junko to hit the other. add Proto and Bartozio into the mix of people to hijack if you want (though I think they're town) but don't hijack anything to them

I don't think the daimthunder flavour is particularly indicative cuz if Proto really is scum for all we know he just triggered it in in his role PM and then posted some fake flavour. but I don't think scum have a dayvig and a persuader

okay

i don't care about flavour either, it's a dumb reason to scumread someone.  scum having a dayvig and persuader makes sense if the persuader couldn't hammer, which is what proto himself mentioned as the most likely possibility.

3 minutes ago, BBM said:

fuck actually I don't know if you should even act considering we don't know who the cop is

what did you do last night?

dw about it

elie to green poet

 

[Mackc2]

I want to point out that Town!protos actions where incredibly reckless the game still had a day left, plenty of time to wait for Elison to respond. It also seems reasonable that this could be scum trying to strike down a town who others where already suspicious of as it would make them less suspicious, my only problem with this is the character title Reinhardt, If the mafia has 3 members they already have a clear 3 member team to use in Bruno, Veronica and Loki 

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Mackc2 said:

I want to point out that Town!protos actions where incredibly reckless the game still had a day left, plenty of time to wait for Elison to respond. It also seems reasonable that this could be scum trying to strike down a town who others where already suspicious of as it would make them less suspicious, my only problem with this is the character title Reinhardt, If the mafia has 3 members they already have a clear 3 member team to use in Bruno, Veronica and Loki 

His character isn't alignment relevant.  If the mods wanted to have neighbors who knew each others' role names, they obviously couldn't make the scum neighbor Bruno/Veronica.

[Green Poet]

Since we're starting to talk about organizing actions, and I was brought up - I'm an ascetic. Anyone can feel free to target me with things to verify that, I'm just making sure it's known beforehand. (This is also why I asked BBM who he targeted, in case it was just me.)

Scum dayvig doesn't sound like an impossibility to me. Mason dayvig is very powerful (I was an investigative mason'd with one in P3M, and we remember how that went) and I agree that it's possibly a scum role, but I've been reading Proto as town for most of the game, so I'm not on board with a Proto lynch today. 

FK seems to be the main common lynch interest atm? I would still be fine with that.

I'm probably biased but I'm really not inclined to believe that Mich's townslip was unintentional. Several other town-looking people seem to think so though so... idk, I suppose I could be wrong? I'm rereading the counterarguments people have raised to my Refa case, not entirely sold but a Refa lynch doesn't seem viable today regardless. I'll think more on it.

##Unvote

Not sure how many votes FK has on atm, just pretend I'm voting him for now.

[Kriemhild]

...okay, in case it wasn't obvious: I am Reinhardt, who started off with a Sibling role. My role PM does not mention "Neighbor" or "Mason" but it does confirm that Prims is town-aligned, and I can chat with him privately. I did not have any actions initially, but my role changed after Prims died, allowing me to daykill Elieson. If I'm lying about being Reinhardt, then the real Reinhardt would obviously have counterclaimed by now.

I'm inclined to vote for Faerie Knight, because BBM's point about Faerie avoiding the Michelaar wagon is good. FK's post about being willing to vote for Michelaar over Pika was 3 hours before deadline. At that time, Pika had 5 votes while Michelaar had 4, so FK should have voted for Michelaar over Pika instead of waiting for Mack. Interestingly, about an hour after this post (which was 2 hours before deadline), FK noted to Pika that the FK vote probably won't build a wagon at this point, and asked if Pika would vote for Michelaar. Faerie Knight did not post in D1 at all after that, leaving their vote on Mack, while Pika never voted for Michelaar either.

The way I see it, it feels like FK secretly hoped that Pika would get lynched, but they didn't want to give the impression that they were defending Michelaar (which would look bad if Michelaar really did get lynched). So they claimed that they would prefer to lynch Michelaar over Pika, but maintained their vote on Mack in order for the majority to remain on Pika. Of course, Pika voting for Michelaar would have brought it to a tie, so FK inquired about Pika's vote to determine whether it would be feasible to get Pika lynched. If Pika switched their vote to Michelaar, then FK would probably have given up on saving Michelaar and switched their vote as well, just as they claimed they would. But since Pika said they would sacrifice themselves for Michelaar (in a dumb newb post), it was safe for FK to maintain their vote on Mack and hope that Pika would get lynched. They probably did not expect BBM to voteswitch literally 10 minutes before the deadline, thus crushing FK's hopes, but at least they were able to avoid giving the impression that they were defending Michelaar.

Maybe I'm reading too much into these two FK posts, and constructing a wild train of thought to suit my narrative, but FK being scum would fit with these posts that otherwise seem really odd. So yeah, since we're not lynching Refa today, I'm gonna go with

##Vote: Faerie Knight

Prims also felt bad about FK, guessing the scumteam as being Elie/FK in their final post, noting that Refa might be scum too. Prims was wrong about Elieson, but I will pursue a FK lynch now.

BTW characters are not alignment-indicative, especially in a game run by Boron (she hates flavorspec). So I would strongly discourage trying to draw conclusions from character flips and character claims, even if they're in my favor.

Random note: if Refa is Town, it's likely that there's at least one scum in the early D2 wagon, as others also pointed out. Among those, I would guess Bartozio looks the worst, but I'm not really scumreading them (or anyone else on the early D2 wagon).

[Refa]

But my action didn't fail on you?  I'll have to ask Boron about if it would.  I thought you were an insomniac though.

What are your thoughts on FK's content today?  I know you had a scumread on him yesterday but you never really updated that read AFAIK.

[Mackc2]

1 minute ago, Refa said:

But my action didn't fail on you?  I'll have to ask Boron about if it would.  I thought you were an insomniac though.

What are your thoughts on FK's content today?  I know you had a scumread on him yesterday but you never really updated that read AFAIK.

Did you target Elison to use their role on GP or trhe other way around?

[Refa]

Just now, Mackc2 said:

Did you target Elison to use their role on GP or trhe other way around?

Former.

[Mackc2]

I am a lookout, Elison did not visit anyone last night, which means Poet isn't lying or you are both lying 

[Green Poet]

I assumed when I read your claim that it wouldn't "fail" because your target was Elieson, and Elieson's target was me.

I'll ask too, since if the hosts can confirm that hijacking would be considered targeting both players, something else is going on or one of us is lying.

[Refa]

I asked Boron and she said she could not confirm/deny.

2 minutes ago, Mackc2 said:

I am a lookout, Elison did not visit anyone last night, which means Poet isn't lying or you are both lying 

Neat.

 

[Junk]

if GP is an ascetic wouldn't elie's actions fail and thus it might not count as visting GP?

[Green Poet]

Boron said she can't confirm or deny whether it would count.

[Kriemhild]

Oh, wow, are we seriously massclaiming in D2?

I'm pretty sure if player X redirects Y to target Z, then this counts as X targeting Y (but not Z) and Y targeting Z (but not... whoever Y was trying to target). So if Z is an Ascetic, then X's redirection would go through, while Y's action would fail (it won't hit Z or whoever Y was targeting initially). A Tracker/Watcher would not see Y visiting anybody.