Fire Emblem Heroes: The Mafia Gacha: The Game Thread

[Mackc2]

Just now, Junk said:

if GP is an ascetic wouldn't elie's actions fail and thus it might not count as visting GP?

Yeah thats exactly what I'm getting at, Refa's actions probably succeeded but 'Elisons' action failed so he did nothing 

[Green Poet]

Hmm... I'm inclined to believe it was Elie's action that would fail. While it's impossible to verify since Elie never posted during D2, I don't see a reason for Refa to have fakeclaimed when people had already started to shift votes off him.

Still, it could be possible to use what we know to forcibly verify Refa and my claims via others' investigatives tonight, if they chose to do that.

[Green Poet]

2 minutes ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

Oh, wow, are we seriously massclaiming in D2?

I don't think so? Or I don't think we should, anyway.

I only claimed because I was brought up when we started talking about who to hijack tonight, and I didn't want people to waste PRs on me. Those who didn't buy my claim would also then have a shortcut to verifying it with any night action and not just an investigative, so I thought it was a good time to say it.

[Kriemhild]

Also, Refa's claim sounds believable, and as weird as this might sound, the fact that Refa deduced that I was scum based on the impact of his role on the confirmed components of the setup actually makes me feel better about him. If Refa were scum, they'd know I'm not lying, so I can't imagine that they'd push for my lynch with this kind of logic that would hurt their own claim when I flip.

I was already townreading Green Poet and Mack (mainly Green Poet), and their claims seem to check out, so those are all good. I'm curious as to why Green Poet left out the Insomniac component of her role though, because I don't think I was imagining the angry yells at wanting Refa's head in the middle of the night while I was trying to sleep peacefully.

I'm very happy with a FK lynch.

[Mackc2]

The way I see it Refa and Green Poet are both exactly what they claim (their alignment is still in question) because this situation is a bit too contrived for it to be a false claim, Refa just so happened to hijack Elison and make them target Poet who happens to be untargetable and I just happened to be looking at Elison and was able to see his actions play out in a way that would actually far more sense if it went the way they said. So honestly it just sound too ridiculous to be a scum plot 

4 minutes ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

I was already townreading Green Poet and Mack (mainly Green Poet), and their claims seem to check out, so those are all good. I'm curious as to why Green Poet left out the Insomniac component of her role though, because I don't think I was imagining the angry yells at wanting Refa's head in the middle of the night while I was trying to sleep peacefully.

 What do you mean by Green Poets insomniac component is that the thing they did during night.

[Green Poet]

2 minutes ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

I'm curious as to why Green Poet left out the Insomniac component of her role though, because I don't think I was imagining the angry yells at wanting Refa's head in the middle of the night while I was trying to sleep peacefully.

I thought it didn't need to be stated after, well, I used it lol. Also, I can only night talk on odd night phases.

re: FK, I last said I might reevaluate my scumread on him based on what sort of scumreads he presents, but his three posts since then still only discuss townreads. When Refa asked him "who he was bothered by," he didn't have a name. Seems to just be going with the flow and not actively looking for scum, so my read hasn't changed.

[BBM]

odd-night insomniac lol

guys let's stop massclaiming please

to confirm mack, do you learn the person your target visits or the people who visit your target?

[Mackc2]

1 minute ago, BBM said:

odd-night insomniac lol

guys let's stop massclaiming please

to confirm mack, do you learn the person your target visits or the people who visit your target?

The person my target visits, which in this case was no-one

[Kriemhild]

Insomniac is a passive role that allows the player to speak during night phases. Evidently Green Poet is an odd-night Insomniac.

I'm not sure why Mack's role is referred to as a Lookout instead of a Tracker, but eh. At this point, I don't think we should be pressing for details on claims. It's too early to massclaim and I think FK is a solid enough lynch as it is that we don't need to resort to such drastic measures.

[Junk]

hmm okay yeah went back and looked at the elie thing and feel much better now, to clarify the "defend himself part" faerie knight was writing a few paragraphs worth of stuff everytime he defended himself and with how much effort he was putting in it came to me as frustrated town more than scum? Although there's a ton of stuff that outweighs that feeling at this point

What I meant to say refa was that although your  michelaar vote was nothing  too notable and thus may have looked like a bus, the commitment to the townslip made me think you were town and that you weren't bussing originally and used the townslip to get off and then promptly forget about it

[Faerie Knight]

You know what? My motivation could not be lower. I wouldn't do this otherwise, and yes, I saw all the claiming, but to hell with this, might as well do it now before the likely hammer, I'm a Color Cop. I need at least another night to produce even some useful results, so if you're town, you probably want to give that a chance to happen.  Only really interested in actually getting at least something out of my role for town, don't particularly care if anyone wants to kill me after and let me be done with this.  I checked Junko so far if anyone cares before my results can mean anything.

Let's see if I actually can have even a little fun helping this town win. Inb4 I'm RBed tho, but hey, at least I tried instead of just letting you kill me.

mafia sucks

[Bluedoom]

I'd like to say that even though I'm alive, I can't vote, so numbers are actually 7/2 if the game started with 10/3.

 

Lynch Junko IMO.

[Mackc2]

2 minutes ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

Lynch Junko IMO.

Why do you think this? 

[Kriemhild]

I really don't want to mislynch a Cop, so...

##Unvote: Faerie Knight

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that I believe FK's claim. Heck, claiming a Cop variant that doesn't have any useful results at the time of claiming sounds like an easy way for scum to avoid getting lynched immediately. However, with respect to the nature of FK's claim, I believe it is best to let them go for today.

If they are Town, then lynching them means we just lynched the Cop, which is obviously bad. And if we let them go, then we'll learn Junko's alignment tomorrow. Yes, the Mafia could shoot FK, but in that case, FK is going to die anyway. Better to let the Mafia spend their N2 kill to shoot FK, as opposed to us lynching FK and granting the Mafia a free kill tonight.

The Mafia might roleblock FK but (a) this requires the Mafia to have a roleblocking ability, which is still not guaranteed. Furthermore, (b) the nature of FK's claim sounds like a Delayed role, in which case FK should get Junko's results regardless. In general, if X targets Y through a delayed action, where the action was sent in phase P with the effect being applied in phase Q, then other roles can only interfere with this by either targeting X in phase P or targeting Y in phase Q. Targeting X in phase Q doesn't affect this action. Now, I'm not confident that this is, indeed, how delayed actions are handled in this specific game, but it's how I would implement them and there's a good chance that it's the case over here as well. If so, then roleblocking FK tonight will not affect FK receiving Junko's results. A Safeguard would mess it up, but Elieson flipped Town Safeguard so there probably isn't a Mafia Safeguard (to avoid claim conflicts). And finally, (c), if a scum roleblocker does roleblock FK, then they wouldn't be roleblocking other Townies, so the rest of our abilities will not be interfered with.

And if FK is actually scum? Well, then they'll live tonight and still have to tell us their results. It might help us learn something about Junko, in any case. FK might claim to have been roleblocked or something else, but we'll deal with it tomorrow based on what other info and leads we might have. But let's give FK a chance to tell us something tomorrow before we decide to pass judgment on them. There is no reason to hastily lynch FK right now instead of dealing with them tomorrow.

Also, @Faerie Knight, I think it's better if you don't give us any additional details about your role. I want the Mafia to be as less informed as possible about this. Even if you ask the mods and learn about whether or not getting roleblocked tonight will affect your results, don't announce that in the thread because we don't want the Mafia to be aware of the answer regardless (and it's likely that the mods will not answer such questions to Mafia members who inquire about a role that's not flipped nor from within their faction).

I'm also opposed to lynching Junko due to the connection with FK's action. Let's not kill somebody when a Cop may potentially reveal their alignment tomorrow anyway.

Who do I propose we lynch instead? I don't know yet, and I want to sleep, but I plan to reread stuff tomorrow to decide on who I want lynched instead. I'm leaning towards Refa or Bartozio atm, or even No-Lynch (usually a bad idea, but it's better than lynching FK imo), but I'm not sure yet.

[Sunwoo]

Votals:
Refa (2): Bartozio, Junko
Faerie Knight (1): BBM
Oboro-garasu (1): Refa

Not voting: everyone else

I'm pretty sure these are right? I was working off Shinori's last votals, so give a holler if they're wrong.

You need a hammer to lynch. To hammer you need 6 votes. Phase end should be at 4 PM CST, which should be a little over 18 hours from now.

[BBM]

wait what a colour cop? i'm confused as to what that means; you just find out people's orb colour or something??? or is it like town are one colour and mafia are another so you can find out which alignment people are through comparison?

[BBM]

this game is making my head hurt

what do you guys think is the possibility that the godfather is a red herring for a cop fakeclaim? vigneighbourmasons, an innocent townie, a tracker, and a comparison cop (inferring that's what FK is claiming) are highly unlikely to all exist ?_? been thinking this since mack claimed 

if we no lynch and FK is town he's just going to get hooked (or killed but I doubt it). there's no way we're getting a result out of FK while the scum hooker is around so I think there's no point to giving Junko a pass just because he (kind of) got inspected. besides if FK doesn't get hooked than we have Junko's alignment for sure to compare colours and know exactly the alignment of whomever gets inspected

my gut is that GP is town because I think as mafia she would have had either insomniac or ascetic as a fakeclaim but that's flimsy af

also since Marth can't vote, if we no lynch, we essentially lose a mislynch. It's 8/2 in numbers but 7/2 in votes right now, meaning that worst case it becomes 4/2 in numbers and 3/2 in votes if we mislynch twice, so we lose after 3 mislynches. but if we no lynch, it's 7/2 in numbers and 6/2 in votes, which means it becomes 4/2 in votes after one mislynch, so we lose after only 2 mislynches. basically there's no advantage to be gained from no lynching other than that there's one more person, but that might honestly be a hindrance more than a help

##Unvote, ##Vote: Junko

also a reminder that we actually need hammer, which is 6 votes and we only have 9/11 people who can vote

[Refa]

16 minutes ago, BBM said:

this game is making my head hurt

what do you guys think is the possibility that the godfather is a red herring for a cop fakeclaim? vigneighbourmasons, an innocent townie, a tracker, and a comparison cop (inferring that's what FK is claiming) are highly unlikely to all exist ?_? been thinking this since mack claimed 

if we no lynch and FK is town he's just going to get hooked (or killed but I doubt it). there's no way we're getting a result out of FK while the scum hooker is around so I think there's no point to giving Junko a pass just because he (kind of) got inspected. besides if FK doesn't get hooked than we have Junko's alignment for sure to compare colours and know exactly the alignment of whomever gets inspected

my gut is that GP is town because I think as mafia she would have had either insomniac or ascetic as a fakeclaim but that's flimsy af

My issue is that it seems too weak to have a Godfather specifically to counter it.  Town!FK would need to target the Godfather one night and town the next night, AND THEN the townie would need to get lynched/killed before the Godfather to have any benefit...it might as well not exist!  Also considering Proto's unvote, he makes sense as a scumbuddy so yeah.

Agreed on the second point.  From PoE alone, my lynch priority at the moment is Proto > FK > Junko >> Green Poet > Pika_pika42 > Bartozio >> Mackc2 > you.

I'm not sure about GP, because not claiming Ascetic at the start of the game benefits scum much more than it benefits town, but I like how she claimed.

 

[Junk]

My theory is that people with characters with "blue" or "green weapons" are town since those seem to be "good colors" while those with red colors are scum since mafia are typically associated with red

not gonna lie, pretty annoyed that people want to lynch me today when we'll have a result on me by day 3 and I don't want to waste today lynching town that'll be known by D3 because scum kill will result in 2 down dead and D3 would just be a confirmation of my alignment (FK getting his results blocked would make no sense since hooker blocks actions, not results! and it's pretty likely town has a protective role to cover FK), feel like it'd be better to lynch someone with more ambiguity now instead of later (i'd probably go with bartizio I guess?, proto I think would be okay too since a lot of issues with him seem to come down to rolespec and if we're gonna play that game I'd rather get it over with now instead of MYLO or LYLO)

but yeah lynching me today is dumb 

[BBM]

eh comparison cops basically just lose their n1 inspect; they're not that much weaker than regular cops. it's pretty easy to figure out which colour is which alignment after two inspects. 

i don't really want to lynch proto I think he's town on both play and role. i can't see scum having a dayvig and a persuader. combined with marth's role preventing him from voting if they're both usable in *ylo mafia could win on like day 3. two mislynches makes it 6/3 on day 3, then proto shoots someone to make it 5/3, then marth has to use his role to prove his innocence and suddenly the votes become 4/3, and then they persuade to commandeer a town vote and now the votes are 3/4 and it's gg

[Refa]

1 minute ago, BBM said:

eh comparison cops basically just lose their n1 inspect; they're not that much weaker than regular cops. it's pretty easy to figure out which colour is which alignment after two inspects. 

i don't really want to lynch proto I think he's town on both play and role. i can't see scum having a dayvig and a persuader. combined with marth's role preventing him from voting if they're both usable in *ylo mafia could win on like day 3. two mislynches makes it 6/3 on day 3, then proto shoots someone to make it 5/3, then marth has to use his role to prove his innocence and suddenly the votes become 4/3, and then they persuade to commandeer a town vote and now the votes are 3/4 and it's gg

I'm not saying a comparison cop is bad, I'm saying Godfather is a bad counter to it because so many things can go wrong.

That's a pretty big stipulation.  I've never seen a Scum!Dayvig so I can't say on that end, but I'm pretty sure scum being able to persuade in *YLO would be bullshit.

[BBM]

I don't think weapon colour is relevant; it's safe to assume that veronica is mafia and she's green iirc?

FK is getting hooked or killed tonight if he's town or pretending to have gotten hooked if he's scum; the only way we're getting a result is if we lynch the hooker today. so "we'll have a result tomorrow" is a bad argument.

i get that rolespec shenanigans can become demotivating if you're on the outside of them bc it feels like you have no control and also all the roleclaims and stuff are introducing a lot of new interactions but you also haven't really committed to any kind of scumread this phase? why would you lynch bartozio?

we need to come to some kind of consensus or we're just going to waste today's lynch lol

I just don't think Proto is scum even if you look at his play but I've had to rescind my townreads like one by one so at this point i don't know anymore but I still wouldn't lynch him today.

if I had to pick a scumteam I think I'd lean towards FK/Junko but I think it's worth seeing what happens to FK tonight. if we can get the hooker today then scum will basically have to kill him if he's town

I think mack should track FK as well because then scum!FK would have to idle his action to fake being hooked. doc should protect one of me/marth/mack/pika, who are the only people I am confident are town right now

[Green Poet]

I've never heard of a color cop before. I want to hear more about what it does because I'm pretty sure we already have access to information that can help verify or disprove it.

7 minutes ago, BBM said:

FK is getting hooked or killed tonight if he's town or pretending to have gotten hooked if he's scum; the only way we're getting a result is if we lynch the hooker today. so "we'll have a result tomorrow" is a bad argument.

Proto talked about this earlier:

4 hours ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

Furthermore, (b) the nature of FK's claim sounds like a Delayed role, in which case FK should get Junko's results regardless. In general, if X targets Y through a delayed action, where the action was sent in phase P with the effect being applied in phase Q, then other roles can only interfere with this by either targeting X in phase P or targeting Y in phase Q. Targeting X in phase Q doesn't affect this action. Now, I'm not confident that this is, indeed, how delayed actions are handled in this specific game, but it's how I would implement them and there's a good chance that it's the case over here as well. If so, then roleblocking FK tonight will not affect FK receiving Junko's results.

So if FK survives until next day phase, he should have an answer for us even if he gets hooked. That's still something he may want to confirm with the hosts though.

[Pika_pika42]

Never heard of Scum DayVig or Colour Cop(except perhaps in EIMM) before.

I don't think the doc should protect me. Can anyone tell me how to use my role productively? I am kinda feeling left out because of it.

As for the Lynch, I don't mind anyone except BBM, MI & Refa.

[Junk]

what makes you think FK isn't town?

The reason why i'd go bartizio over the rest of "ambigious" people who i'd call GP, Refa, Mack, Pika Pika, Proto, and Bartizio is that from POV he looks the least townie to me, his D2 has felt super passive  and while his D1 reads post on everyone was good that's what appears townie to me while the rest of his content appears mostly null. Refa talking about the townslip at the end of D1 just before the lynch I have no idea why he'd do as scum.  I already explained what I thought of everyone else (and to add onto that, i don't get why scum mack would claim now as well as GP when there was no need to). 

One thing i'm confused about though, is that assuming i'm scum, asking to get persuaded as scum would be ridiculously dumb since i've basically lost my voting power which is extremely important for scum?