Fire Emblem Heroes: The Mafia Gacha: The Game Thread

[Refa]

Also no point in holding onto this Proto vote if no one is going to sheep it, so...

##Unvote

##Vote: Faerie Knight

Still think this slot has a higher chance of flipping scum than Bartozio.  In addition to what I've already said about his play/claim, I don't like how he basically gave up after claiming.

[Bartozio]

What does NAI stand for again?

I'm somewhat suspicious of FK, but I don't want to risk lynching our cop when we can verify him during the night.

My suspision on Refa has sunk with his claim, since the only way I can see it working is if he knew GP's role (implying GP is also scum, and linking that toghether at this point feels way to risky).

Since BBM, Pika and Mack feel towny to me, I'd go with Junko or Proto. Since I'm so puzzled about the votelocking thing, I can honestly see it as a plan to get Junk free from suspision. It would also help the color cop I think?

##Unvote

##Vote: Junk

[Mackc2]

You know what I gave it some thought FK doesn't seem willing to keep playing. He was very ambiguous about his role but I am thinking it works as a cop where he is given an alignment but isn't told which and needs to compare it to another and that is the assumption I am going to work off. 

First situation- Town!FK, he will die tonight before we we get confirmation or he will get RB'ed and not have a reading tomorrow since he would have to inspect a confirmed town tonight and we will probably end up lynching him or if Refa is mafia hijacker he will adjust the next target to either throw shade at Junk or make him look like town when he isn't.

Second Situation- Scum!FK, he will bullshit a result and maybe we will trust him maybe we won't but we will once again be very confused about if he is lying or not and we will just end up having a repeat of today or he will get away with everyone trusting him as a cop which would suck. 

##Unvote
##Vote: Faerie Knight 

[Kriemhild]

I seriously think we should wait until D3 before lynching FK or Junko. Seriously, at least let's give FK a chance to be useful before deciding to lynch them.

For now, I think the best lynch is ##Vote: Bartozio

[Mackc2]

1 minute ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

I seriously think we should wait until D3 before lynching FK or Junko. Seriously, at least let's give FK a chance to be useful before deciding to lynch them.

For now, I think the best lynch is ##Vote: Bartozio

Could we even trust anything FK will say D3 I personally think he is going to just cause more headaches even if he is actually a cop

[Bluedoom]

I don't get the FK justification here. Yes I'm townreading him but what is this logic?

 

A Scum!FK could just as easily fake some guilty tomorrow and cause a mislynch. If we mislynch today, that puts us in LYLO D4. Like I'm not really sure what's the reasoning for lynching FK here but what is the reasoning for keeping him alive for tomorrow if you don't trust him anyway?

[Kriemhild]

If FK doesn't give us anything useful, we could lynch them D3. We need to win this, and I don't want to lynch a Town Cop now. If they're telling the truth, we'll be down a Cop, and the Mafia can freely kill and roleblock whoever they please in N2. We'll come to D3 with very little information, with somebody dead and another player roleblocked.

If FK is telling the truth, it's entirely possible that they will gain Junko's results even if they're roleblocked (refer to my previous post for details). And even if they do get blocked and this prevents them from getting the results, at least none of the other Townies will be blocked then. And if the Mafia shoot FK instead, then it's still better to let the Mafia spend their kill on FK instead of us lynching FK and letting the Mafia kill somebody else.

If FK is lying scum, it's still better to keep them alive. They would have to give us info on Junko, and given that Junko's alignment is unknown to us, it could benefit us to know what scum would claim Junko to be. And if FK claims to be blocked, then the Mafia would have to refrain from blocking somebody else in order to maintain the deception, so at least none of the other Townies would be blocked.

Seriously, FK is the worst lynch for today in light of their claim. We can discuss lynching them in D3 but please don't lynch him now. I'd rather No-Lynch than lynch FK even.

[Bluedoom]

Also if you think FK is scum, why didn't he vote Pika at phase end? Why didn't he jump on the counterwagon at all? Why wasn't there a Refa hammer D2? 

[Mackc2]

Fine you make a good point. 
##unvote
 

[Kriemhild]

...

Okay, I just realized that Bartozio's role might prove to be useful tonight.

Consider this: Bartozio makes FK a Strongman for tonight. In that case, if FK still claims to have been blocked, then we'll know that one of FK/Bartozio is lying. And the Mafia would have to make sure they don't roleblock anybody else, since otherwise we'd know for sure that FK is lying scum, so none of the other Townies would be blocked. On the other hand, if FK does not claim to be blocked, then they would have to reveal their result on Junko. Even if FK is actually scum, this information can be quite useful.

And again, if the Mafia shoots FK instead, they'd still have to spend their N2 kill on a target that we're very unsure of, revealing their alignment, which is much better than the scenariio where we lynch FK and the Mafia shoots somebody else.

##Unvote: Bartozio

##Vote: No-Lynch

What do you guys think of this plan? I know there's a massive stigma against No-Lynching, but I think this is a situation where we could really benefit from waiting for D3. We could just treat it as if Elieson were our lynch target instead.

[Mackc2]

2 minutes ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

...

Okay, I just realized that Bartozio's role might prove to be useful tonight.

Consider this: Bartozio makes FK a Strongman for tonight. In that case, if FK still claims to have been blocked, then we'll know that one of FK/Bartozio is lying. And the Mafia would have to make sure they don't roleblock anybody else, since otherwise we'd know for sure that FK is lying scum, so none of the other Townies would be blocked. On the other hand, if FK does not claim to be blocked, then they would have to reveal their result on Junko. Even if FK is actually scum, this information can be quite useful.

And again, if the Mafia shoots FK instead, they'd still have to spend their N2 kill on a target that we're very unsure of, revealing their alignment, which is much better than the scenariio where we lynch FK and the Mafia shoots somebody else.

##Unvote: Bartozio

##Vote: No-Lynch

What do you guys think of this plan? I know there's a massive stigma against No-Lynching, but I think this is a situation where we could really benefit from waiting for D3. We could just treat it as if Elieson were our lynch target instead.

Also means we would be more or less up a man meaning we aren't getting into a LOL until D5 if my math is correct, I'm fine with this, playing the long game might turn out for us 

[Bluedoom]

We still get into a mislynch or lose situation D4 if all lynches are on town so the no lynch doesn't help unless we get some consensus of trusting FK or w/e.

[Bartozio]

Lets see:

We're basicly 7/2 right now.

If we misslynch today, we're at 5/2 D3. another misslynch puts us at 3/2 D4, at wich point we're fucked if the persuade wasn't one time only (I doubt it's one time only considering it's use).

If we don't lynch, we're at 6/2 D3. A misslynch puts us at 4/2 D4, in which case they can prevent a lynch with a persuade. Best case scenario, we're at 3/2 D5, which is only better then the above result if they only have 2 persuades or can only use it on even days.

Honestly, I don't think we can afford a misslynch on D3 anyway (unless we get lucky and somehow prevent a night kill somewhere), so lynching someone seems better to me.

[Bartozio]

Considering we'll get more information on Junko and FK after the night, I'd rather not lynch them right now. Probably should have considered that about Junko earlier.

##Unvote

Mack and Refa have useful roles and I doubt they're scum anyway, so I don't want to lynch them either. I highly doubt BBM is scum, so that leaves Pika, Proto and GP as lynch options. Pika doesn't come over as scum either, and suspect proto a bit more then GP.

##Vote: Oboro-Garasu

[Shinori]

7 hours left in phase.

[Mackc2]

Well I'm about to take a 8 hour nap called going to sleep I will see you all day 3

[Refa]

4 hours ago, Bartozio said:

What does NAI stand for again?

I'm somewhat suspicious of FK, but I don't want to risk lynching our cop when we can verify him during the night.

Not Alignment Indicative; means that I don't view your claim as towny or scummy.

Why are you suspicious of FK?

3 hours ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

If FK doesn't give us anything useful, we could lynch them D3. We need to win this, and I don't want to lynch a Town Cop now. If they're telling the truth, we'll be down a Cop, and the Mafia can freely kill and roleblock whoever they please in N2. We'll come to D3 with very little information, with somebody dead and another player roleblocked.

If FK is telling the truth, it's entirely possible that they will gain Junko's results even if they're roleblocked (refer to my previous post for details). And even if they do get blocked and this prevents them from getting the results, at least none of the other Townies will be blocked then. And if the Mafia shoot FK instead, then it's still better to let the Mafia spend their kill on FK instead of us lynching FK and letting the Mafia kill somebody else.

If FK is lying scum, it's still better to keep them alive. They would have to give us info on Junko, and given that Junko's alignment is unknown to us, it could benefit us to know what scum would claim Junko to be. And if FK claims to be blocked, then the Mafia would have to refrain from blocking somebody else in order to maintain the deception, so at least none of the other Townies would be blocked.

Fair enough on your first point.  If FK is Town Cop, it'll limit who scum can roleblock, and even a Town!FK death is better than a mislynch.

Your second point confuses me, though.  I can get behind the roleblocking logic, but I don't see how FK's info on Junko's alignment would be useful.  If anything, it'd be WIFOM hell if he announced that Junk was the same colour as another townie (especially because I don't remember them having many interactions).

3 hours ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

Also if you think FK is scum, why didn't he vote Pika at phase end? Why didn't he jump on the counterwagon at all? Why wasn't there a Refa hammer D2? 

His last post was asking if Pika was going to vote Michelaar, so it's a safe assumption that he was not on at phase end.  At the time, Pika's wagon was larger AND Pika said that he didn't want to vote Michelaar, so he didn't need to do so.  The Refa hammer thing is what makes me doubt my read on him, honestly.  The only reason I can see for it is some sort of limitation on the persuade that we don't know about.  At the same time though, his claim conflicts with the other investigation and even the Godfather role itself, and the way he gave up does not sit well with me.  Demotivation isn't scummy in and of itself but tone wise, it rubbed me the wrong way.

3 hours ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

What do you guys think of this plan? I know there's a massive stigma against No-Lynching, but I think this is a situation where we could really benefit from waiting for D3. We could just treat it as if Elieson were our lynch target instead.

It makes town lose a mislynch, s-

2 hours ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

We still get into a mislynch or lose situation D4 if all lynches are on town so the no lynch doesn't help unless we get some consensus of trusting FK or w/e.

This.  Speaking of...

##Unvote

##Vote: Bartozio

Consolidation vote since I probably won't be on for phase end.  I'm not fully satisfied with this because I want the only other person who voted Proto to be town dammit, but I'd rather lynch a null read than have a no lynch.

[Bartozio]

FK spend most D1 focussing on Mack, his D2 seems to focus mostly on townreads instead of scum reads, and his claim feels like exactly what he needed to say to stay alive. I'm also a bit suprised he'd target Junko instead of Mack if he's a cop.

Honestly, there's decent explanations for all of these points, but toghether it paints a bad picture. It also helps I don't have strong scum reads on anyone else...

looking back on it, I feel like there must be some limitation on the persuade, because otherwise we'd only have one misslynch (especially if proto turns out to be scum). Still don't feel happy about taking that risk, but with the way things are going we're getting close to the point where a no-lynch seems inevitable.

 

[BBM]

we're not no lynching; it doesn't get us another phase

Bart's claim is pretty null

[BBM]

Votals:

Refa (1): Junko

Bartozio (3): BBM, Pika, Refa
Oboro-garasu (1): Bartozio

No Lynch (1): Oboro-Garasu

Not voting: Green Poet, Mack, Faerie Knight, Magnificence Incarnate

come on guys we can't no lynch we need 3/4 of GP/Mack/FK/Proto to come and change their vote.

[Kriemhild]

I would still be okay with a No-Lynch, but I do hope that FK will receive their result tonight even if they're roleblocked, so leaving Bartozio alive isn't super-important.

##Unvote: No-Lynch

##Vote: Bartozio

[Bartozio]

13 minutes ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

I would still be okay with a No-Lynch, but I do hope that FK will receive their result tonight even if they're roleblocked, so leaving Bartozio alive isn't super-important.

##Unvote: No-Lynch

##Vote: Bartozio

I find this unlikely, since it makes way more sense that he just hears colors whe checking people, meaning he needs a second check done. Him getting roleblocked still means other people won't get roleblocked though.

Basicly posting to say I'm here to change votes in the unlikely event we agree on a different lynch target.

[Green Poet]

##Vote: Bartozio

[BBM]

still need one of mack/FK sigh

bartozio if we don't get enough votes and you don't get lynched, empower FK

FK target Bartozio if he survives and Proto if he doesn't

[Kriemhild]

BBM still doubts me ;~;

I THOUGHT WE WERE FRIENDS! WE SHARED POUTINE TOGETHER!!!