Fire Emblem Heroes: The Mafia Gacha: The Game Thread

[Kriemhild]

Actually, wait, the 1v1 between Junko and FK is independent of Mack's ability. Mack's ability only serves as a possible explanation for the Town!Junko side of the story.

The fact is that both Junko and FK claimed to be blocked. FK did not claim to be an Ascetic. If there was anything that caused actions on FK to fail (Mack's role or otherwise), then it should have also prevented FK from being blocked. Unless there are two Roleblockers, I don't see how it could be possible for both Junko and FK to be telling the truth.

[Mackc2]

I personally think its bodyguard, which would have been nice if they had of tried to kill FK instead

[Kriemhild]

Unless we speculate about the possibility that Junko was redirected towards Green Poet, but given Refa's role as well as the scenario that the Mafia choose to use their redirecting ability on Town!Junko to target Green Poet, such speculations are starting to get quite ridiculous.

I'm pretty sure there's one scum between FK and Junko.

[Bluedoom]

OH I totally missed Junko's post but yeah Mack isn't part of a 1v1

[Kriemhild]

I can see bodyguard as a possible role associated with "guard". Azama does have that annoying Pain staff to hurt enemies harder than most other healers, but it's non-lethal damage in FEH. Either way, I'm hoping Mack receives clarification about the ability. 

[Mackc2]

No I can just possibly prove one side innocent maybe.

[Bluedoom]

I see, we shall wait as we get more info then.

 

The thing is, why would the mafia target Town!Junko with their roleblock when Town!Mack has claimed an investigative role?(Yes this assumes Mack is town)

 

[Mackc2]

Actually yeah that doesn't make much sense, if FK is Town why RB Junko when you could RB the cop, and if FK is mafia why Rb Junko when I claimed tracker and would be the most immediate threat being the only revealed investigative roll

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

Unless we speculate about the possibility that Junko was redirected towards Green Poet, but given Refa's role as well as the scenario that the Mafia choose to use their redirecting ability on Town!Junko to target Green Poet, such speculations are starting to get quite ridiculous.

I'm pretty sure there's one scum between FK and Junko.

Wouldn't Town!Junko be informed of being redirected?  Unless mafia redirects are way sneakier than town redirects, mine was at least announced to Elie.

Same.

2 minutes ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

The thing is, why would the mafia target Town!Junko with their roleblock when Town!Mack has claimed an investigative role?(Yes this assumes Mack is town)

BBM told Mackc2 to target FK, so I can see why mafia wouldn't be worried about him (or he could just be scum, but I don't see that role being scum).  I don't get why scum would roleblock Junk over me, though, unless they were really like "Refa might hijack us NBD".

This honestly makes way more sense to me assuming Scum!FK.  Mackc2 safeguards FK, Junk's watch fails on FK, and scum roleblocks me because hijacker is way scarier than tracker.  Assuming Town!FK, it'd be odd that scum didn't kill one of me/him instead of BBM.

 

[Bluedoom]

You are talking as though the mafia knew that Mack had the safeguard on N2. They wouldn't. Mack didn't claim that part in thread. They'd only know it if Mack is scum. So, if BBM told Mack to target FK, that'd mean he told Mack to Track  FK. Now, if that's the case, and scum RBs Junko, then how did FK get RB'd? Is there another hook?  If FK is scum, why does he hook Junko and then claimed hook, knowing well that he'd get into a 1v1? Especially when he could hook you/Mack.

 

BBM kill makes sense since he was the most active in discussion and also a good chance at hitting a possible doctor(only he and Junko didn't claim by the end of D2). An FK kill would be risky since the mafia would expect protection to be on FK.

[Refa]

3 minutes ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

You are talking as though the mafia knew that Mack had the safeguard on N2. They wouldn't. Mack didn't claim that part in thread. They'd only know it if Mack is scum. So, if BBM told Mack to target FK, that'd mean he told Mack to Track  FK. Now, if that's the case, and scum RBs Junko, then how did FK get RB'd? Is there another hook?  If FK is scum, why does he hook Junko and then claimed hook, knowing well that he'd get into a 1v1? Especially when he could hook you/Mack.

BBM kill makes sense since he was the most active in discussion and also a good chance at hitting a possible doctor(only he and Junko didn't claim by the end of D2). An FK kill would be risky since the mafia would expect protection to be on FK.

No, I mean I can see why mafia wouldn't be worried about FK being tracked.  Scum!FK would know to idle and mafia wouldn't care about Town!FK.  I don't see scum roleblocking Junk, that was my point!  FTR though, scum!FK would still get into a 1v1 with me or Mackc2 (and those would be much harder 1v1s to win).

Fair enough on the BBM kill, didn't really think about scum going for the doctor.

[Kriemhild]

1 hour ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

The thing is, why would the mafia target Town!Junko with their roleblock when Town!Mack has claimed an investigative role?(Yes this assumes Mack is town)

They didn't...? I'm not sure where you're getting the idea that they tried to roleblock Town!Junko. Town!Junko implies Scum!FK (and also implies that Mack's action was a Safeguard), so I suspect that the Mafia idled their Roleblock in order to support FK's claim that they were roleblocked. Nobody else would claim to be roleblocked so FK's claim would be believable. The fact that Junko claimed that their action failed implies that Mack's action may have been a Safeguard on FK, which the Mafia never anticipated, and this would also expose FK since the Safeguard would have prevented FK from being roleblocked. 

Also, it's possible that FK was the Roleblocker. In that case, FK didn't have any choice but to idle, because if they roleblocked anyone else, then Mack would see it (they thought Mack was a Tracker), and it would be bad if Mack sees FK visiting a target who claims to be roleblocked. But then FK would need to have an explanation for why they didn't visit anybody, despite being a Cop, so the obvious solution would be that FK claims to be roleblocked instead. And in fact, this plan would not have any inherent contradictions... except for the fact that Mack's true action was a safeguard (which the Mafia did not anticipate), thus proving that FK could not have been roleblocked.

(this is assuming Town!Junko and Scum!FK, of course; Mack's action was NOT a safeguard if the reality was Town!FK)

1 hour ago, Mackc2 said:

Actually yeah that doesn't make much sense, if FK is Town why RB Junko when you could RB the cop, and if FK is mafia why Rb Junko when I claimed tracker and would be the most immediate threat being the only revealed investigative roll

Again, Junko was never RB'd, regardless of which scenario you're considering. For Town!FK, the Mafia really did RB the Cop, i.e. FK. For Scum!FK, read my explanation earlier in this post.

58 minutes ago, Refa said:

Wouldn't Town!Junko be informed of being redirected?  Unless mafia redirects are way sneakier than town redirects, mine was at least announced to Elie.

Same.

They probably would, in general, but Ascetic targeting may be an exception. Regardless, I'm not going to think too hard about redirection possibilities because things get really stupid at that point.

1 hour ago, Refa said:

BBM told Mackc2 to target FK, so I can see why mafia wouldn't be worried about him (or he could just be scum, but I don't see that role being scum).  I don't get why scum would roleblock Junk over me, though, unless they were really like "Refa might hijack us NBD".

This honestly makes way more sense to me assuming Scum!FK.  Mackc2 safeguards FK, Junk's watch fails on FK, and scum roleblocks me because hijacker is way scarier than tracker.  Assuming Town!FK, it'd be odd that scum didn't kill one of me/him instead of BBM.

...again, they never tried to roleblock Junko, for either scenario. 

For Scum!FK, I'm not entirely sure if scum tried to roleblock you, because there would be an incentive for the roleblocker to idle, especially if FK was the Roleblocker who believed Mack was tracking them. The scenario still holds if they tried to roleblock you instead of idling, but I personally doubt that was the case, and it doesn't really matter at this point. And yeah, as Blues pointed out later, BBM was the logical kill because there was a good possibility of BBM being the doctor, so it would be risky to try killing you or FK (especially FK). 

51 minutes ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

You are talking as though the mafia knew that Mack had the safeguard on N2. They wouldn't. Mack didn't claim that part in thread. They'd only know it if Mack is scum. So, if BBM told Mack to target FK, that'd mean he told Mack to Track  FK. Now, if that's the case, and scum RBs Junko, then how did FK get RB'd? Is there another hook?  

Scum never tried to roleblock Junko, regardless of whether you're assuming Scum!Junko or Scum!FK. Either they successfully RB'd Town!FK, in which case Mack's action was not a Safeguard, or they pretended that Scum!FK was RB'd, in which case Mack's action was a Safeguard since it's the only plausible explanation for Town!Junko's action failure. 

1 hour ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

If FK is scum, why does he hook Junko and then claimed hook, knowing well that he'd get into a 1v1? Especially when he could hook you/Mack.

They didn't block Junko. They may have tried blocking Refa, but I suspect they idled in this scenario. Junko claiming to have been blocked was an outcome the Mafia could not anticipated, since it arose from Mack's action being a Safeguard. 

Seriously, I'm not sure where you guys are getting the idea that scum tried to roleblock Junko for either scenario. Junko's action failure was either caused by Mack's action being a Safeguard, or it was all a lie that was possibly constructed to raise doubts on FK's claim. Assuming that Junko read Mack's claim, and that Scum!Junko could not be confident about whether or not the mods would confirm what Mack's action was, this does make a lot more sense as Scum!FK. I would vote for FK if Mack reports that the mods refuse to clarify the N2 action further. But I'm still open to the possibility of Scum!Junko trying to push us to lynch Town!FK by claiming to be roleblocked, so I'd like to wait for Mack to hear from the mods. If it turns out that Mack's action was a Doctor/Bodyguard/anything-but-no-safeguard, then Junko is almost certainly scum. 

The only scenario I can imagine in which Junko was actually blocked is if Scum!FK is a complete idiot who thought it would be a bright idea to claim roleblocked while knowing that Junko would likely claim the same. Even if FK wanted to 1v1 Junko, it would be much safer to do so by claiming that their investigation went through and that Junko was scum (e.g. claiming Junko and Blues have opposite colors). 

Either way, one of Junko and FK is scum for sure, and the details of Mack's N2 action can almost definitively determine which one it is. The most likely scenario imo is that Mack's action was a Safeguard, implying Town!Junko and Scum!FK.

[Bluedoom]

Yeah Proto you've brought up some good points haha.

[Kriemhild]

Lemme try to illustrate this more simply:

Scenario #1: Town Junko, Scum FK, Mack N2 Safeguard

- Mack safeguards FK
- Junko tries to watch FK but is blocked by the safeguard
- Mafia Roleblocker either idles, or targets somebody like Refa. If FK is the Roleblocker, then idling would have been the only non-suicidal choice given that Mack was believed to be a Tracker.
- FK claims to have been roleblocked. What the Mafia couldn't have anticipated is that Mack safeguarding FK exposes FK as lying.

Scenario #2: Town FK, Scum Junko, Mack N2 anything-but-safeguard

- The true effect of Mack's action is irrelevant, but FK was NOT safeguarded
- Mafia legitimately roleblocks FK, especially since FK revealed on D2 that they'd have info on Junko otherwise. Mafia chose not to shoot FK possibly because they were worried that a Doc might protect FK, so they shot BBM because BBM would be the doctor via elimination.
- Early D3 interactions show that Town was starting to somewhat accept FK's claims, and there were inclinations towards lynching Junko instead. 
- Junko, being pressured to claim and not seeing a lot of ways to avoid getting lynched, desperately decided on a final gambit: claiming to be roleblocked in the hopes that this would push players to doubt FK instead. And the fact that Scenario #1 seems more plausible than Scenario #2 (at least imo) indicates how effective Junko's gambit was. 

There are other scenarios, but they all involve some dumb ideas (e.g. scum roleblocking Junko AND letting FK claim roleblocked, Junko being blocked due to the effects of an entirely different role like a redirector pointing him to Green Poet, etc), are not worth consideration imo. And between these two scenarios, I find #1 far more likely because I doubt Junko would pull off such a gambit because it would either suggest a) scum tried to roleblock Junko, which we all agree makes no sense, or b) Junko pushed us to turn to scenario #1 by considering that Mack's action was a safeguard when the reality was that it wasn't. In other words, Junko's survival depended on the hope that we would not be able to determine what Mack's N2 action really was, so he tried to steer us into thinking it was a Safeguard when it actually wasn't. I doubt Junko could be sure about whether the mods would confirm Mack's true N2 action, but given how hopeless Junko's situation was, this plan was still better than rolling over and getting lynched with no resistance. 

Either way, confirmation of Mack's N2 action would distinguish between these two scenarios, so I want to wait for Mack to give us a response from the mods.

[Refa]

Thanks for the explanation, Proto, the role shenanigans today have been really confusing.  I agree with all of your points, just waiting for a mod response from Mackc2.

[Green Poet]

Yeah, that explanation helps a lot :o

[Junk]

N1 was on you proto, unless there's a role which prevents me from seeing who visited you, no one targeted you.

Woops about the aestetic thing, I'm dumb

 

Looking at proto points fk has to be scum since scenario 1 is the only one that makes sense since I know I'm town so ##vote faerie knight

 

im going to look for associatives later but I'm at school right now so can only posted to tell n1 results 

[Mackc2]

Bad news guys azama was only a bodyguard 

[Refa]

##Vote: Junk

That was easy.

[Green Poet]

##Vote: Junko

[Mackc2]

##Vote Junko 

[Refa]

##Unvote

[Refa]

Don't have any issues with the lynch, but I don't want Junk to get hammered before Marth/Proto/Pika/FK have the chance to respond.

[Faerie Knight]

##Vote: Junko

I'm fine with this

[Kriemhild]

Thank you, @Refa

I'm gonna comment on the wagon and vote in a bit, but I want to make an important request first. If nobody objects to this, I would like to request for @Pika_pika42 to send a message to me tonight. In this message, Pika, I want you to tell me who do you think the last scum is, i.e. the remaining living scum that's not Junko/FK. I don't care if you have zero confidence in your read, and I'm not even going to assume that you are scumreading them, but I want you to name a player regardless. If you really can't decide, just pick randomly from the pool you're least trusting off, but please make sure to send me a message with the name of exactly one player tonight (N3).

If anybody objects to my request, please let me know.