Fire Emblem Heroes: The Mafia Gacha: The Game Thread

[Refa]

2 minutes ago, Mackc2 said:

There was definitely a mass roleblock in play last night right? I can't see any other explanation. But the same point could be raised about Proto, if he is mafia then he is a 1x dayvig, 1x mass roleblocker, 1x Persuader, neighbour which is pretty crazy too I would say Jack of all trades but all his abilities are day abilites unless there are 2 more mafia left

He could also just have more 1x's.  I'm just going off of what I know here.

I reread Proto's interactions and his Michelaar read consisted of him voting Michelaar early on and then sticking to that read by the end of the day.  It's not particularly telling, because Scum!Proto would want to bus Michelaar alongside Junk and Town!Proto would just be like "hey, Pika is townier".  His Junk interactions are strange, though.  I don't think he ever mentioned Junk until a vote on D2 that he changed soon afterwards in order to confirm FK's cop report.  What bothers me is how he decided to No Lynch instead of lynch Junk (who he was perfectly okay with lynching earlier on), which would have been better for proving FK's role.  Most of his D2 interactions are NAI, but what weirds me out here is his paranoia about the lynch at the end of the day.  I'm...not sure that's WIFOM, but I'd like another opinion here.

[Refa]

*D3 for the last sentence.

[Bluedoom]

On 10/8/2017 at 12:15 AM, BBM said:

actually you know what I think Pika is like significantly more likely to be town than that. the "scum Pika lets himself be lynched to save his buddy with the better role" idea doesn't make sense. think about it, if we'd lynched Pika we'd all have been like "huh why would scum!Pika not vote Michelaar to save himself this only makes sense if they're buddies" and we'd have lynched Michelaar right away. it would have been better for him to just not post at all and then we would have passively kind of thought that Michelaar was less likely to be scum due to being a counterwagon to scum.

in comparison town Pika not voting Michelaar is bad play but I can understand the feeling when you're new and you know you're not playing well and you'd rather just get lynched and have it over with than someone else get lynched whom you think is town and might contribute more. I did the same thing in Theatre Mafia with I think either Core or Rapier.

 This is the post

[Refa]

To be more specific, it's not just the paranoia, but that it came AFTER Junk scumclaimed.  Maybe it was just bad organization or WIFOM for Town Cred™, but it seems like a weird play to make as scum when his buddy was most likely getting lynched.

[Refa]

2 minutes ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

 This is the post

Oh right, that's a good point.

[Bluedoom]

Acting weird about the Junko lynch only works if he thinks that he can coast off of the dayvig, but otherwise that's bad scumplay because he'd be on the chopping block next since Junko was p much going to be lynched last phase.

[Pika_pika42]

Actually by some twisted logic, it even makes sense as he told me to send him a message in the night phase so that it would look like he'd be expecting that message, where in fact, he used his mass-roleblock ability and then he could say why I would use the role block when I was expecting a message.

Don't know if this is a logical possibility or I am just overthinking stuff.

[Kriemhild]

I agree with Refa that there likely isn't a full-time Roleblocker, especially given that there is almost certainly a mass roleblock (likely 1-shot) in scum's hands. What I don't get is how @Refa derived me as scum based on it...? My Quote button doesn't work, but you wrote this big paragraph which I agree with all the points on until the last line where you were suddenly like "What made me doubt this was that it seemed weird for scum to have a BPV role if the only kills are coming from scum, but it makes sense if Town!Prims gets the vig when Proto dies." How does anything in the paragraph imply that I'm scum...?

Junko targeted whoever BBM tried to protect, causing the action to fail. On D2, FK claimed that they are a Color Cop and that they targeted Junko. FK told us on D3 that they targeted me, so it's safe to guess that Junk targeted me on N2. But how does that point to me being scum? Junko may have tried to predict FK's target and luckily guessed that FK targeted me. This would all be based on how they predict FK's actions, which are not reflective of my alignment.

Regarding Mack's concerns, we know there's a Persuader (possibly 1-shot) and a Mass Roleblock (almost certainly 1-shot). The final scum has these abilities as well as whatever abilities they already proved in their claims. Let's consider these possibilities:

- Proto: Sibling (Neighbor) + DayVig after sibling dies. Am I the only one thinks that this is far too OP when you add a 1-shot Persuade + 1-shot Massblock? Also, the Persuade was on the same phase as the dayvig, so Scum!Proto basically suggests that I used two instant-effect actions on the same phase. This sounds ridiculous. Also, this reasoning implies that the mods designed the Neighbor roles such that I could easily shoot Prims on N1 to gain the free vig while axing off a Townie. Which Refa is claiming is exactly what I did. Would the mods really have designed a Neighbor Sibling like this?
- Pika: Courier. Courier is a crap role, I can totally see 1-shot Persuader and 1-shot Mass Roleblock added to it. Maybe even more. Pika also can't be hiding anything as Town, because the claim was done out of pressure from a really heavy wagon.
- Green Poet: Odd night Insomniac + Ascetic. The interesting thing to note is that both of these are passive abilities. They aren't very powerful either, so I can also plausibly see a 1-shot Persuade and 1-shot Massblock added to it.
- Refa: Hijack. The hijack on N1 is essentially confirmed via Mack + Green Poet claims. However, what we don't know is on the restrictions behind it. Refa claimed that it can't be used on consecutive nights, implying that was the only limitation, but it could just as easily have been a 1-shot hijack; Refa planned to use the mass roleblock on N3 regardless, so all he only needs to win before N5 and his claim can't be disproved. Worth noting that his non-consecutive claim was on D3 (not D2), so that may have been when he was sure of unleashing the massblock on N3.
- Mack: Randomizer. I really don't want to consider Scum!Mack, but fine. The track on N1 is confirmed by Green Poet and Refa... well, okay, Mack's Tracker claim was the last one from the trio, so it could have been a quick fabrication, but I doubt that. Still though, as far as roles are concerned, there's no actual confirmation of their abilities. But they did have the opportunity to save Junko on D3 (by claiming Safeguard), but they didn't do that. Which probably isn't inherently Townish, because Junko's dangerous gambit probably forced them to sacrifice Junko as opposed to having them both get lynched once FK flipped. Either way, I doubt Scum!Mack is a thing.

I'm leaning towards Green Poet or Refa as the final scum. Green Poet seems the stronger candidate, but I want to know Refa's reasoning for pushing me as scum.

[Kriemhild]

Actually, if the hijack was 1-shot, I doubt Refa would waste it on Elieson targeting Green Poet while not knowing their roles at all. And if it wasn't 1-shot, then I doubt the role would have a 1-shot Persuade + 1-shot Massblock attached to it. I think Green Poet is the last scum.

[Bluedoom]

Oh right, I'm gonna fullclaim since this might be relevant.

 

My other part of the role was a doublevoter; so Michelaar actually shouldn't have been lynched  on D1, but the mods totally forgot about my role and got him lynched anyway. So they changed my role to an ability(extra vote) that can be activated once per phase. Since my role looked like the mysterious persuader, I figured that me claiming wouldn't make any sense, so I revealed my alignment once I was informed of the change to my role PM. Oh yeah, my doublevote would not activate at *YLO.

 

But its possible that the persuader got buffed or something after that lynch.

[Green Poet]

I don't think Mack or Proto can be the last scum. The game state on D3 only moved forward when the contradiction between Mack's revised claim and Junko's claim was pushed by Proto. Junko shouldn't have been unaware of scum!Mack's role, and scum!Proto had no reason to direct us to him. Also, scum!Proto having hook/masshook/dayvig altogether is too much. Basically, if Proto just didn't say anything we probably would've no lynched or mislynched yesterday.

town!Mack means he wasn't lying about confirming Refa's N1 hijack, but that isn't a clear. With Marth cleared by role, I think the only people who feasibly could be scum are myself, Refa, and Pika. I don't feel like putting time towards explaining why I'm not scum unless people are really pushing for it.

Reading the end of D1 again, scum!Pika saying "I don't mind if I get lynched instead of Mich" makes more sense to me now because all the attention Mich had on him was highly likely to attract scans, and if he ever got "cleared" it'd be extremely easy to coast the rest of the game. I was scumreading Refa pretty hard D2 but I've come to realize that yeah, my case was largely dependent on the townslip being faked and that was something I'd taken for granted from the start. I'm surprised he's voting for Proto though, after D3 I feel like Proto is obvtown? Just based on activity/behavior I'd think one would tend to vote me over Proto and I don't see the motivation for scum!Refa to not do that.

Also, not sure how much it'll help to clarify this, but I didn't talk N3 because I was just really busy. I'm an odd-night insomniac, not a 1-shot.

[Green Poet]

I don't think Mack or Proto can be the last scum. The game state on D3 only moved forward when the contradiction between Mack's revised claim and Junko's claim was pushed by Proto. Junko shouldn't have been unaware of scum!Mack's role, and scum!Proto had no reason to direct us to him. Also, scum!Proto having hook/masshook/dayvig altogether is too much. Basically, if Proto just didn't say anything we probably would've no lynched or mislynched yesterday.

town!Mack means he wasn't lying about confirming Refa's N1 hijack, but that isn't a clear. With Marth cleared by role, I think the only people who feasibly could be scum are myself, Refa, and Pika. I don't feel like putting time towards explaining why I'm not scum unless people are really pushing for it.

Reading the end of D1 again, scum!Pika saying "I don't mind if I get lynched instead of Mich" makes more sense to me now because all the attention Mich had on him was highly likely to attract scans, and if he ever got "cleared" it'd be extremely easy to coast the rest of the game. I was scumreading Refa pretty hard D2 but I've come to realize that yeah, my case was largely dependent on the townslip being faked and that was something I'd taken for granted from the start. I'm surprised he's voting for Proto though, after D3 I feel like Proto is obvtown? Just based on activity/behavior I'd think one would tend to vote me over Proto and I don't see the motivation for scum!Refa to not do that.

Also, not sure how much it'll help to clarify this, but I didn't talk N3 because I was just really busy. I'm an odd-night insomniac, not a 1-shot.

[Green Poet]

Actually, wait, I don't think Refa can be scum either.

His N1 hijack was confirmed by Mack. He cannot be the scum roleblock because BBM was hooked N1, unless you could like... actually hook and hijack two people in one night? I've never heard of a role like that.

##Vote: Pika

[Green Poet]

Refa, what do you think about the D3 implications of scum!Proto? Why do you think he decided to point us to Junko?

Reading D3 again I'm not convinced Junko would've gotten lynched otherwise. I don't see scum!Proto thinking he needs the towncred from bussing in a steady situation with 2 members left, especially after he dayvigged someone.

[Refa]

6 hours ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

Refa planned to use the mass roleblock on N3 regardless, so all he only needs to win before N5 and his claim can't be disproved.

Wait, how did you know that I wouldn't be able to hijack on N4?

[Refa]

6 hours ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

Refa planned to use the mass roleblock on N3 regardless, so all he only needs to win before N5 and his claim can't be disproved.

Wait, how did you know that I wouldn't be able to hijack on N4?

16 minutes ago, Green Poet said:

Also, scum!Proto having hook/masshook/dayvig altogether is too much. Basically, if Proto just didn't say anything we probably would've no lynched or mislynched yesterday.

Reading the end of D1 again, scum!Pika saying "I don't mind if I get lynched instead of Mich" makes more sense to me now because all the attention Mich had on him was highly likely to attract scans, and if he ever got "cleared" it'd be extremely easy to coast the rest of the game. I was scumreading Refa pretty hard D2 but I've come to realize that yeah, my case was largely dependent on the townslip being faked and that was something I'd taken for granted from the start. I'm surprised he's voting for Proto though, after D3 I feel like Proto is obvtown? Just based on activity/behavior I'd think one would tend to vote me over Proto and I don't see the motivation for scum!Refa to not do that.

Also, not sure how much it'll help to clarify this, but I didn't talk N3 because I was just really busy. I'm an odd-night insomniac, not a 1-shot.

Read what I said earlier about Proto's role; scum might not even have a roleblocker, or at least a full time roleblocker.

I can get why people are scumreading you in general but it's just missing that one decisive post or piece of information that makes me confident in it.

22 minutes ago, Green Poet said:

Actually, wait, I don't think Refa can be scum either.

His N1 hijack was confirmed by Mack. He cannot be the scum roleblock because BBM was hooked N1, unless you could like... actually hook and hijack two people in one night? I've never heard of a role like that.

Me being confirmed town is dependent on BBM being hooked and not having his action fail due to Junk's role.  Considering BBM died on N2, I'm fairly sure it's the latter.

14 minutes ago, Green Poet said:

Refa, what do you think about the D3 implications of scum!Proto? Why do you think he decided to point us to Junko?

Reading D3 again I'm not convinced Junko would've gotten lynched otherwise. I don't see scum!Proto thinking he needs the towncred from bussing in a steady situation with 2 members left, especially after he dayvigged someone.

I didn't read it as alignment indicative because he was basically clearing things up (which was very helpful, don't get me wrong, but not alignment indicative), and saying that if the mods confirmed Mackc2's action as a safeguard/didn't confirm his action, he'd be okay with lynching FK and if they confirmed anything else, he'd be okay with lynching Junk.  It's a reasonable enough stance but also a safe one, so I didn't get anything off of that.  Scum!Proto wouldn't be bussing his buddy in this situation but more playing along with the gambit (since Junk's claim basically put him in a 1v1 with FK).

[Refa]

Whoops, forgot to delete my question to Proto in the second post. :my_b:

[Refa]

6 hours ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

I agree with Refa that there likely isn't a full-time Roleblocker, especially given that there is almost certainly a mass roleblock (likely 1-shot) in scum's hands. What I don't get is how @Refa derived me as scum based on it...? My Quote button doesn't work, but you wrote this big paragraph which I agree with all the points on until the last line where you were suddenly like "What made me doubt this was that it seemed weird for scum to have a BPV role if the only kills are coming from scum, but it makes sense if Town!Prims gets the vig when Proto dies." How does anything in the paragraph imply that I'm scum...?

Junko targeted whoever BBM tried to protect, causing the action to fail. On D2, FK claimed that they are a Color Cop and that they targeted Junko. FK told us on D3 that they targeted me, so it's safe to guess that Junk targeted me on N2. But how does that point to me being scum? Junko may have tried to predict FK's target and luckily guessed that FK targeted me. This would all be based on how they predict FK's actions, which are not reflective of my alignment.

- Proto: Sibling (Neighbor) + DayVig after sibling dies. Am I the only one thinks that this is far too OP when you add a 1-shot Persuade + 1-shot Massblock? Also, the Persuade was on the same phase as the dayvig, so Scum!Proto basically suggests that I used two instant-effect actions on the same phase. This sounds ridiculous. Also, this reasoning implies that the mods designed the Neighbor roles such that I could easily shoot Prims on N1 to gain the free vig while axing off a Townie. Which Refa is claiming is exactly what I did. Would the mods really have designed a Neighbor Sibling like this?

Unless GP is Junk's scumbuddy (which is possible, fair enough, didn't think of Junk targeting town because he couldn't target his only scumbuddy), it makes more sense for Junk to target his scumbuddy than it does for him to gamble on a townie.

You mentioned that you weren't informed about the DayVig until after Prims died, right?  I see no reason for you to lie about this as either alignment.  As scum, it'd be borderline bastard game design for you to know that you'd get a DayVig by killing your town neighbor, and as town it'd be a really stupid thing to lie about.

Real talk Proto, at this point I'm not confident if you are scum or if I just want you to be scum, but there are these nagging inconsistencies that keep on popping up and the only thing that explains them FMPOV is that you are a mafia.

[Refa]

6 hours ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

My other part of the role was a doublevoter; so Michelaar actually shouldn't have been lynched  on D1, but the mods totally forgot about my role and got him lynched anyway. So they changed my role to an ability(extra vote) that can be activated once per phase. Since my role looked like the mysterious persuader, I figured that me claiming wouldn't make any sense, so I revealed my alignment once I was informed of the change to my role PM. Oh yeah, my doublevote would not activate at *YLO.

WE TAKE THOSE

Did you ask the mods how your role would originally interact with persuader?  If scum could control both of your votes, that'd make me sure that the persuader is definitely 1x (because being able to control a mayor's vote every phase is just stupid) and scum hasn't been idling it for some reason.

[Refa]

7 hours ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

Acting weird about the Junko lynch only works if he thinks that he can coast off of the dayvig, but otherwise that's bad scumplay because he'd be on the chopping block next since Junko was p much going to be lynched last phase.

Forgot to reply to this but do you think it's more likely to come from Town/Scum Proto, or just no preference either way?

[Kriemhild]

1 hour ago, Green Poet said:

Actually, wait, I don't think Refa can be scum either.

His N1 hijack was confirmed by Mack. He cannot be the scum roleblock because BBM was hooked N1, unless you could like... actually hook and hijack two people in one night? I've never heard of a role like that.

##Vote: Pika

It's very likely that the Mafia never had a proper roleblocker. It would be really silly for the Mafia to have two roles that could roleblock other players, so it's most likely the case that all roleblocks were actually caused by Junko's ability. This means that Junko targeted whoever BBM targeted on N1, and targeted me on N2. Neither of these indicate anything about Refa.

52 minutes ago, Refa said:

Wait, how did you know that I wouldn't be able to hijack on N4?

Well, if you tried to hijack on N3 (and got roleblocked), then the non-consecutive claim implies that you wouldn't be able to hijack on N4. Or I guess that might not be how it would work, but still, you'd clear up your N3 action by the mass roleblock claim.

1 hour ago, Refa said:

I didn't read it as alignment indicative because he was basically clearing things up (which was very helpful, don't get me wrong, but not alignment indicative), and saying that if the mods confirmed Mackc2's action as a safeguard/didn't confirm his action, he'd be okay with lynching FK and if they confirmed anything else, he'd be okay with lynching Junk.  It's a reasonable enough stance but also a safe one, so I didn't get anything off of that.  Scum!Proto wouldn't be bussing his buddy in this situation but more playing along with the gambit (since Junk's claim basically put him in a 1v1 with FK).

I think you might be downplaying my contribution to the D3 lynch. I am not trying to boast here, but I can distinctly recall reading strings of posts from Marth, Mack, and yes, you as well, that would talk about "Mafia roleblocking Junko" making no sense, while Scum!FK made much more sense. Had I not clarified my understanding of the situation, who knows whether you guys would be able to clear up your confusion in time?

37 minutes ago, Refa said:

Unless GP is Junk's scumbuddy (which is possible, fair enough, didn't think of Junk targeting town because he couldn't target his only scumbuddy), it makes more sense for Junk to target his scumbuddy than it does for him to gamble on a townie.

What makes more sense is not as obvious as you make it sound. Bear in mind that FK didn't provide details on the Cop claim in D2, but only that they would learn something about Junko on N2. I even explained back then that if it was a Delayed Cop, then they'd learn the alignment regardless (yes, this is relevant because FK wasn't actually targeted to be blocked; the action failure was due to a coinciding target). So Junko could not have definitively known how dangerous it would have been if FK targeted his scumbuddy.

And even if the correct Color Cop details were considered as a possibility, it still doesn't indicate that Junko would definitely target his scumbuddy. Junko would probably be really worried that FK would target somebody Townish, and determine that Junko is scum. So Junko's action priority may have been to optimize the chances of blocking FK, as opposed to minimizing the chances of FK scoping double-scum. Optimizing best-case odds over minimizing worst-case odds. In that regard, Junko probably chose me because he thought FK was most likely targeting me and/or because he'd have the hardest time pushing the lynch on me over himself if I were scoped successfully. Maybe Junko didn't really consider the possibility that their scumbuddy being scoped could screw over the Mafia. Maybe the other scumbuddy had enough powerful abilities that the Mafia thought they may still have a chance even if FK targets the scumbuddy. And of course, note that the details of how the Color Cop actually worked was just one of the many possibilities of the true nature of FK's role, of which very little was known about in N2, so it's unreasonable to assume that Junko would certainly set their action to eliminate the chances of total annihilation in one very specific interpretation of the Color Cop claim, especially if Junko didn't perceive those chances as being very significant to begin with.

And of course, as you noted, none of that matters if Green Poet is the last scum (which I feel makes the most sense from my perspective), allowing Junko to maximize his chances of blocking FK without worrying about the risk of total annihilation from FK targeting Ascetic Poet. And finally, I also want to point out that... this is Junko. The same guy who claimed to be roleblocked in D3, a claim that we all agreed would have made no sense unless Mack's action was a Safeguard which Mack would have been able to confirm. Even if Junko hoped that the mods would refuse to confirm the ability, which is silly, he couldn't be sure enough about it to risk his life for it. Like, I literally can't see how Junko could have hoped to benefit from that claim at all, which is why it bothered me so much at the end of D3. My point here is that this is a guy who made a super-dumb claim that had no benefit while it guaranteed their lynch. For you to assume that this same player would make highly intelligent decisions based on accurate guesses of the details of a vaguely claimed role is... not a very good assumption imo. 

Really, the only way I could make sense of Junko's claim of being roleblocked is if he didn't think too hard on the implications to realize that he would get lynched for it. Does it really make sense, then, for his scumbuddy to be the guy who prides himself in role/action analysis (while failing at behavioral reads) and also the guy who elaborated on the implications of Junko's claim before anyone else did, while drawing the line on how Mack's role (which should not be withheld from Mack) would distinguish between the possibilities, thus ensuring that Junko's "gambit" had no chance of working? Junko's gambit might've worked if you guys didn't analyze it hard enough (unlikely), but I personally tried to make sure that would not be the case. 

Let me also point out that I bugged Junko to claim twice (11.5 hours claim and after FK's claim, and 2 hours before claim, with no meaningful posts from anyone between second prod and Junko's claim) on D3. And in less than half an hour after Junko's claim, I analyzed it and described how it points to Scum!Junko if Mack's ability was not a Safeguard, requesting Mack to seek clarification from the mods about it. Does this make sense if I were Junko's scumbuddy? Given that he bugged Junko twice, Scum!Proto would likely have privately discussed what Junko should claim. Would Scum!Proto really have approved of Junko's decision to claim that he was roleblocked, only to tear apart the claim and put Junko into a spot that would definitively get him lynched once Mack gets his answer?

43 minutes ago, Refa said:

You mentioned that you weren't informed about the DayVig until after Prims died, right?  I see no reason for you to lie about this as either alignment.  As scum, it'd be borderline bastard game design for you to know that you'd get a DayVig by killing your town neighbor, and as town it'd be a really stupid thing to lie about.

I didn't know I'd get a DayVig, but I knew something would happen if Prims died. So I would still have an incentive to murder Prims asap if I were scum. But just like the bit about knowing that your sibling is Town-sided, these details were omitted in Prims' cardflip, so I can't really prove that. But even if you want to consider the hypothetical scenario that our role PMs were phrased like Neighbors with no Sibling implications, then why would I have shot Prims at all on N1? I would think that he had no abilities (so he wouldn't be as inherently threatening as a potential Doc/Cop) and the fact that we communicate privately would allow me to slip in ideas to scum's benefit. 

1 hour ago, Refa said:

Real talk Proto, at this point I'm not confident if you are scum or if I just want you to be scum, but there are these nagging inconsistencies that keep on popping up and the only thing that explains them FMPOV is that you are a mafia.

What inconsistencies...? While writing up this post, I tried to look at things from a point of view other than my own and I realized just how absurd it would seem to consider Proto as scum. With how weak your reasoning is, I'm starting to doubt whether you are sincerely trying to scumhunt, because it feels like you're just trying to find excuses to paint me as scum.

[Green Poet]

Who did Pika visit N1/N2 again?

[Green Poet]

Never mind, just reread. Pika's courier succeeded to BBM N1, failed to me N2, failed to Proto N3. I was wondering if there were any attestable gaps where Pika idled his courier.

It's fair to assume that there's only one antitown player left, and that a player can't visit two players in the same night to send a message + perform a factional kill, right? If both of those are true, I think we shouldn't lynch Pika today, and that Pika should visit Marth every night until he "proves" he can't have taken the kill. Even if notPika!scum idles the kill to encourage a mislynch on Pika, that doesn't change the pace of reaching parity and we all just get more chances to figure things out with night actions.

##Unvote

[Refa]

1 hour ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

1) Well, if you tried to hijack on N3 (and got roleblocked), then the non-consecutive claim implies that you wouldn't be able to hijack on N4. Or I guess that might not be how it would work, but still, you'd clear up your N3 action by the mass roleblock claim.

2) I think you might be downplaying my contribution to the D3 lynch. I am not trying to boast here, but I can distinctly recall reading strings of posts from Marth, Mack, and yes, you as well, that would talk about "Mafia roleblocking Junko" making no sense, while Scum!FK made much more sense. Had I not clarified my understanding of the situation, who knows whether you guys would be able to clear up your confusion in time?

3) What makes more sense is not as obvious as you make it sound. Bear in mind that FK didn't provide details on the Cop claim in D2, but only that they would learn something about Junko on N2. I even explained back then that if it was a Delayed Cop, then they'd learn the alignment regardless (yes, this is relevant because FK wasn't actually targeted to be blocked; the action failure was due to a coinciding target). So Junko could not have definitively known how dangerous it would have been if FK targeted his scumbuddy.

4) And even if the correct Color Cop details were considered as a possibility, it still doesn't indicate that Junko would definitely target his scumbuddy. Junko would probably be really worried that FK would target somebody Townish, and determine that Junko is scum. So Junko's action priority may have been to optimize the chances of blocking FK, as opposed to minimizing the chances of FK scoping double-scum. Optimizing best-case odds over minimizing worst-case odds. In that regard, Junko probably chose me because he thought FK was most likely targeting me and/or because he'd have the hardest time pushing the lynch on me over himself if I were scoped successfully. Maybe Junko didn't really consider the possibility that their scumbuddy being scoped could screw over the Mafia. Maybe the other scumbuddy had enough powerful abilities that the Mafia thought they may still have a chance even if FK targets the scumbuddy. And of course, note that the details of how the Color Cop actually worked was just one of the many possibilities of the true nature of FK's role, of which very little was known about in N2, so it's unreasonable to assume that Junko would certainly set their action to eliminate the chances of total annihilation in one very specific interpretation of the Color Cop claim, especially if Junko didn't perceive those chances as being very significant to begin with.

5) And of course, as you noted, none of that matters if Green Poet is the last scum (which I feel makes the most sense from my perspective), allowing Junko to maximize his chances of blocking FK without worrying about the risk of total annihilation from FK targeting Ascetic Poet. And finally, I also want to point out that... this is Junko. The same guy who claimed to be roleblocked in D3, a claim that we all agreed would have made no sense unless Mack's action was a Safeguard which Mack would have been able to confirm. Even if Junko hoped that the mods would refuse to confirm the ability, which is silly, he couldn't be sure enough about it to risk his life for it. Like, I literally can't see how Junko could have hoped to benefit from that claim at all, which is why it bothered me so much at the end of D3. My point here is that this is a guy who made a super-dumb claim that had no benefit while it guaranteed their lynch. For you to assume that this same player would make highly intelligent decisions based on accurate guesses of the details of a vaguely claimed role is... not a very good assumption imo. 

6) Really, the only way I could make sense of Junko's claim of being roleblocked is if he didn't think too hard on the implications to realize that he would get lynched for it. Does it really make sense, then, for his scumbuddy to be the guy who prides himself in role/action analysis (while failing at behavioral reads) and also the guy who elaborated on the implications of Junko's claim before anyone else did, while drawing the line on how Mack's role (which should not be withheld from Mack) would distinguish between the possibilities, thus ensuring that Junko's "gambit" had no chance of working? Junko's gambit might've worked if you guys didn't analyze it hard enough (unlikely), but I personally tried to make sure that would not be the case. 

7) Let me also point out that I bugged Junko to claim twice (11.5 hours claim and after FK's claim, and 2 hours before claim, with no meaningful posts from anyone between second prod and Junko's claim) on D3. And in less than half an hour after Junko's claim, I analyzed it and described how it points to Scum!Junko if Mack's ability was not a Safeguard, requesting Mack to seek clarification from the mods about it. Does this make sense if I were Junko's scumbuddy? Given that he bugged Junko twice, Scum!Proto would likely have privately discussed what Junko should claim. Would Scum!Proto really have approved of Junko's decision to claim that he was roleblocked, only to tear apart the claim and put Junko into a spot that would definitively get him lynched once Mack gets his answer?

8) I didn't know I'd get a DayVig, but I knew something would happen if Prims died. So I would still have an incentive to murder Prims asap if I were scum. But just like the bit about knowing that your sibling is Town-sided, these details were omitted in Prims' cardflip, so I can't really prove that. But even if you want to consider the hypothetical scenario that our role PMs were phrased like Neighbors with no Sibling implications, then why would I have shot Prims at all on N1? I would think that he had no abilities (so he wouldn't be as inherently threatening as a potential Doc/Cop) and the fact that we communicate privately would allow me to slip in ideas to scum's benefit. 

9) What inconsistencies...? While writing up this post, I tried to look at things from a point of view other than my own and I realized just how absurd it would seem to consider Proto as scum. With how weak your reasoning is, I'm starting to doubt whether you are sincerely trying to scumhunt, because it feels like you're just trying to find excuses to paint me as scum.

(numbered your responses for convenience)

1) It's not your reasoning about me that bothered me.  It's more how you were confident enough to make a scumread based off an assumption of how my role worked, which is inconsistent with your prior play of analyzing every possibility.

2) Yes, because what cleared the confusion was Mackc2 claiming what his action did.  If he claimed that his action was safeguard or that he didn't know what it did, I would have lynched FK over Junk.  You helped me to understand what was going on, but that doesn't make you town because it wasn't what changed peoples' minds towards the lynch.  That's why I'm townreading Mackc2 for that, not you.

3) Nothing in FK's post implied he was a delayed cop (you were the only person to interpret it that way), so I don't get your point here.

4) Fair enough on this.  I still think it's more likely that Junk would target a scumbuddy, but 1) if GP is his scumbuddy, then he couldn't and 2) regardless of GP's alignment, I can get why he'd target Town!Proto.

5) I don't think making an assumption of how colour cop works is beyond Junk's capability considering me and BBM explained how we thought FK's role worked at the time (so he could have just...read it).  However, I don't see Scum!Proto letting Junk make that play (of claiming that he was roleblocked).  It's possible that he did it on his own, but he didn't come across as that proactive to me.

6-7) Read above.

8) Fair enough on the Prims' kill.  If you knew that you'd get something out of it, it'd be bullshit.  If you didn't know that you'd get something out of it, then you killing a functional vanilla on N1 (over like BBM) makes no sense to me.

9) tl,dr; I fucked up and didn't think things through.  Listing all of the reasons you bothered me so that you can see where I'm coming from, at least.

a) Prims being confirmed town to you read as a scum neighbor, especially since the mods went out of their way to claim that you were not masons.  Looking at what was omitted in his Role PM, I'm fairly sure that you were not confirmed town to him.

b) You getting a dayvig when Prims dies.  Boron has made a decent number of mafia games, and I have a hard time she'd approve of something as unbalanced as a Mason Dayvigs variant (if this was just a Shinori game, I'd probably buy it a lot easier though), even assuming that you were not confirmed town to Prims.

c) Your end of day 2 content.  You were okay with lynching Junk before, so it bothered me (still bothers me) that your reason for not lynching him was to prove FK's role (despite the fact that voting him would have made more sense).  I can get why you voted Bartozio at deadline, what I can't get is why you didn't vote Junk before that. 

d) Junk probably targeting you on Night 2.  Didn't make any sense to me why he'd target a townie over a scumbuddy.

e) Read my first reply, this still seems inconsistent with your current play.

I still want responses to c and e so I can be 100% confident in this read, but everything else in your response makes you a townread.

[Refa]

##Unvote

Whoops.