Voting Gauntlet: Short-Haired Ladies vs. Long-Haired Gents!

[Thane]

1 minute ago, Tybrosion said:

The Reddit score predictor is currently saying that Amelia, Hinoka, Takumi and Soren will be the ones to advance. It has Soren winning due to it projecting him to get the final hour multiplier. I really hope that does pan out but I'm also not getting my hopes too high. 

 

1 minute ago, Ice Dragon said:

Until there are only 3 or 4 hours left in the round, it's really hard to say because small changes in score acquisition can result in very different results due to the small width of the DMZ. Even then, it's still hard to say because end-of-round rallies are a thing.

Thank you, my fine gentlemen. I'd be sad to see Amelia beat Katarina, but Soren beating Ryouma would be justice. Of course, I realize this is very hard to predict with the current bonus formula, but I'll keep my hopes up.

[Ice Dragon]

9 minutes ago, Thane said:

Thank you, my fine gentlemen. I'd be sad to see Amelia beat Katarina, but Soren beating Ryouma would be justice. Of course, I realize this is very hard to predict with the current bonus formula, but I'll keep my hopes up.

Actually, now that I actually look at the trends (I didn't realize we were already at hour 37)

• Amelia is almost a lock for a win since she's basically guaranteed one last multiplier, and Katarina probably won't be able to recover from it, even if it happens earlier than predicted. Lots of ifs in italics, though.
• Assuming I'm reading the table right and Hinoka has the multiplier this hour, Hinoka has a lock for a win as long as the two sides keep trading multipliers. Unless somehow one team lands the score in the DMZ or overshoots and gives the opponent two hours of multipliers, the trade will give Hinoka the win.
• Takumi v. Karel depends on whether or not Karel gives Takumi a multiplier. If Takumi fails to get a multiplier, it depends entirely on how many hours it takes for Takumi to break out of the DMZ.
• Soren v. Ryoma is a toss-up. I'm predicting a much larger spike for the next Ryoma multiplier than the spreadsheet predicts (because the prediction algorithm isn't good at predicting rallies), which means it depends on how much Soren can rally.

Edited November 7, 2017 by Ice Dragon

[Thane]

2 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

Actually, now that I actually look at the trends (I didn't realize we were already at hour 37)

• Amelia is almost a lock for a win since she's basically guaranteed one last multiplier, and Katarina probably won't be able to recover from it, even if it happens earlier than predicted. Lots of ifs in italics, though.
• Assuming I'm reading the table right and Hinoka has the multiplier this hour, Hinoka has a lock for a win as long as the two sides keep trading multipliers. Unless somehow one team lands the score in the DMZ or overshoots and gives the opponent two hours of multipliers, the trade will give Hinoka the win.
• Takumi v. Karel depends on whether or not Karel gives Takumi a multiplier. If Takumi fails to get a multiplier, it depends entirely on how many hours it takes for Takumi to break out of the DMZ.
• Soren v. Ryoma is a toss-up. I'm predicting a much larger spike for the next Ryoma multiplier than the spreadsheet predicts (because the prediction algorithm isn't good at predicting rallies), which means it depends on how much Soren can rally.

Well, I'll be heading to bed soon, so I'll see in a couple of hours whether or not we live in the darkest timeline.

Edited November 7, 2017 by Thane

[SatsumaFSoysoy]

7 minutes ago, Thane said:

Well, I'll be heading to bed soon, so I'll see in a couple of hours whether or not we live in the darkest timeline.

Soren is so frail, a real life lobster can poke him to death tbh.

[Thane]

2 minutes ago, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

Soren is so frail, a real life lobster can poke him to death tbh.

Pff, he doesn't need to be sturdier when he's got his brain and Ike to protect him.

[Jedi]

14 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

Actually, now that I actually look at the trends (I didn't realize we were already at hour 37)

• Amelia is almost a lock for a win since she's basically guaranteed one last multiplier, and Katarina probably won't be able to recover from it, even if it happens earlier than predicted. Lots of ifs in italics, though.
• Assuming I'm reading the table right and Hinoka has the multiplier this hour, Hinoka has a lock for a win as long as the two sides keep trading multipliers. Unless somehow one team lands the score in the DMZ or overshoots and gives the opponent two hours of multipliers, the trade will give Hinoka the win.
• Takumi v. Karel depends on whether or not Karel gives Takumi a multiplier. If Takumi fails to get a multiplier, it depends entirely on how many hours it takes for Takumi to break out of the DMZ.
• Soren v. Ryoma is a toss-up. I'm predicting a much larger spike for the next Ryoma multiplier than the spreadsheet predicts (because the prediction algorithm isn't good at predicting rallies), which means it depends on how much Soren can rally.

Since all of us are killing each other, it seems like Amelia might walk away with an easy full win after this particularly brutal first round. 

[Stroud]

I'm with Team Hinoka. She did so well for me, so I will help her.
And I did good to spare my flags this time. 

[Tybrosion]

8 minutes ago, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

Soren is so frail, a real life lobster can poke him to death tbh.

Eh, Soren could ask Ilyana to fry that overgrown Crawdaunt with Rexbolt if need be. As Conquest proved, Ryoma is deathly weak to electric moves after all.

[DarkLordIvy]

6 minutes ago, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

Soren is so frail, a real life lobster can poke him to death tbh.

I reject your reality

[Ae†her]

Ryoma multiplier is currently in place it's 6.9X

[Anacybele]

Wooow, would Ryoma be screwed hard if Soren did pull this out. Ryoma's been curbstomping the whole time and has the biggest team of any character right now.

I don't like Soren at all, so I hope Ryoma wins, but...yeah.

[Skyla]

13 minutes ago, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

Soren is so frail, a real life lobster can poke him to death tbh.

My Soren Rekts Ryoma.

[Dracologist]

1 minute ago, Anacybele said:

I don't like Soren at all, so I hope Ryoma wins, but...yeah.

I find Soren as a character more interesting than likable, but interesting is enough to make me want to see him win this. Also, he's from the first FE I ever played, so I kind of have to support him because of that.

[Anacybele]

1 minute ago, Dracologist said:

I find Soren as a character more interesting than likable, but interesting is enough to make me want to see him win this. Also, he's from the first FE I ever played, so I kind of have to support him because of that.

Okay? You're telling me this why?

[Dracologist]

1 minute ago, Anacybele said:

Okay? You're telling me this why?

I don't know; just trying to be conversational, I guess.

Edited November 7, 2017 by Dracologist

[Anacybele]

1 minute ago, Dracologist said:

I don't know; just trying to be conversational, I guess.

Well, I'm sorry if I have nothing to say to it...

[Ae†her]

Just now, Anacybele said:

Okay? You're telling me this why?

Plebs are trying to persuade us to the disadvantaged side, it's pathetic. Everyone knows Hoshido is the master race, this voting gauntlet is already ours to claim!

[Anacybele]

4 minutes ago, Logos said:

Plebs are trying to persuade us to the disadvantaged side, it's pathetic. Everyone knows Hoshido is the master race, this voting gauntlet is already ours to claim!

Yeah, with three characters in this being Hoshidan royals, it's quite likely one of them will win the whole thing! Which would be so nice. Hoshido has gotten so little love in this game.

[Tsuky]

7 minutes ago, Logos said:

Plebs are trying to persuade us to the disadvantaged side, it's pathetic. Everyone knows Hoshido is the master race, this voting gauntlet is already ours to claim!

Lol, I like your spirit :D

But seriously though, I'm really hoping Ryoma doesn't lose because of multiplier shenanigans. I never expected him to get nearly this much support, but here we are, and I'm super happy. We might finally be getting some love for the Hoshidan siblings :3

[Tybrosion]

17 minutes ago, Logos said:

Everyone knows Hoshido is the master race, this voting gauntlet is already ours to claim!

Then why do they only have one seasonal unit to Nohr's / Conquest's eight and Ylisse's / Awakening's eleven?

[Arcanite]

If team Karel wins against the taco meat, I think I'll bungee jump off a cliff

Edited November 7, 2017 by Arcanite

[Saulen Fals]

Okay Nintendo. Let's talk. You give me more summons like this and I'll give you more money. 

[Jbunzie]

Then why do they only have one seasonal unit to Nohr's / Conquest's eight and Ylisse's / Awakening's eleven?

What does that have to do with popularity? Everyone knows Takumi is the most popular fates male character. 

Ryoma had more votes than Xander in Cyl. 

Only the nohrian sisters are more popular than the hoshidians.

Edited November 7, 2017 by Jbunzie

[Alkaid]

I want to see Soren lose so we can maybe get some nice Ryoma gauntlet memes. 

"You die, NOW."

[Tybrosion]

1 minute ago, Jbunzie said:

Ryoma had more votes than Xander in Cyl. 

Yeah, about that.

Xander: 7,511 votes, 42nd
Ryoma: 7,248 votes, 43rd