Persona 5 Mafia - Game Over

[Baldrick]

I couldn't tell earlier whether Shinori was town who genuinely thought I was town or he was scum who wanted an excuse to not write a case on me. If it was the former, he would at some point try to get someone who wasn't me lynched, if it was the latter, he'd continue with low-effort posts and spend the time doing god knows what. i HAVE NO IDEA WHAT HE LIKES TO DO OUTSIDE OF MAFIA.

I left him alone because if he spent his time being outraged at me it'd be inconclusive.

##unvote

##vote: Shinori

 

Since only hand-delivering one scum to you would be a gross underuse of my powers, I'll decide another one. Tbh my sully vote today was more not-me-over-me but there are two points to consider;

1) Shinori never really got Shinori at Sully. In this post he called out Michelaar, me, Bartozio and Sully because " All of these votes on me are pretty poor on me with weak logic." At the end of the post he says. " Gonna go reread Baldrick, mich and bartozio to see who I'm voting. " He later says Sully is new so he might be biased, but Bartozio and Michelaar are pretty new as well.

D2 he mentions Sully only in that he's Michelaar's scumread. and then in one of his last posts he says if he's wrong about Sully, Michelaar is his buddy? Is he suggesting Michelaar is bussing Sully? You should make him answer that D3.

2) Via is cool and shouldn't be forced to eat his shoelaces.

Finding the whole scum team might be beyond even me, but I'll try after breakfast.

[Baldrick]

I'd eliminate Michelaar and Bartozio immediately because that would be more bussing than I'd expect from a scumteam with 1 vet. Via I'd also eliminate because I don't think he'd flip-flop so hard on Sully. That leaves Kirsche, Marth, Refa and BBM. (Mackc is his own thing, and I could buy BBM bussing both his buddies and staying on Sully to deadline D1 because he's confident that one of Gaius or Prims would happen). To narrow it down further, I'd have to re-read.

[Baldrick]

Kirsche: His strongest case, in content and tone, was Prims. I believe he would be fully confident in mislynching Prims, so I can't see the N1 kill coming from him.

[Refa]

1 hour ago, Baldrick said:

I couldn't tell earlier whether Shinori was town who genuinely thought I was town or he was scum who wanted an excuse to not write a case on me. If it was the former, he would at some point try to get someone who wasn't me lynched, if it was the latter, he'd continue with low-effort posts and spend the time doing god knows what. i HAVE NO IDEA WHAT HE LIKES TO DO OUTSIDE OF MAFIA.

I left him alone because if he spent his time being outraged at me it'd be inconclusive.

##unvote

##vote: Shinori

Since only hand-delivering one scum to you would be a gross underuse of my powers, I'll decide another one. Tbh my sully vote today was more not-me-over-me but there are two points to consider;

1) Shinori never really got Shinori at Sully. In this post he called out Michelaar, me, Bartozio and Sully because " All of these votes on me are pretty poor on me with weak logic." At the end of the post he says. " Gonna go reread Baldrick, mich and bartozio to see who I'm voting. " He later says Sully is new so he might be biased, but Bartozio and Michelaar are pretty new as well.

D2 he mentions Sully only in that he's Michelaar's scumread. and then in one of his last posts he says if he's wrong about Sully, Michelaar is his buddy? Is he suggesting Michelaar is bussing Sully? You should make him answer that D3.

2) Via is cool and shouldn't be forced to eat his shoelaces.

Finding the whole scum team might be beyond even me, but I'll try after breakfast.

I'm pretty sure he scumread you but you were a lesser scumread.  Can you point out posts where he wasn't trying to get someone who wasn't you lynched?  Because I do agree that that is scummy, I just don't remember him ever actually doing that.

Was your Sully vote an associative read or is there more to it than that?

[SB.]

Votals 2.9

Baldrick (6): BBM, Marth, Bartozio, Refa, SullyMcGully, Mackc2
Shinori (2): Michelaar, Baldrick
SullyMcGully (1): Via,
Michelaar (1): Shinori

Not Voting (1): kirsche

With 11 alive, it takes 4 to lynch and 8 to hammer. Phase ends in 1 hours and 20 minutes.

[Refa]

Just thought of this now but do people think that there could be a 4 person scum team?  Like numbers wise w/three people it'd be 10/3, and become 11/3 on D4.  That means scum would need four mislynches to win, which would be a bit ridiculous.  If there's a 4 person scum team, then it'd be 9/4, then scum would win on three mislynches AND Mackc2/Paper's role wouldn't grant town an extra mislynch just for existing.

[Refa]

(there could also be an ITP which would explain Rein approving the setup but nothing points towards that being true at the moment)

[Baldrick]

@Refa; point to where shinori was doing anything more to push any lynch? I was a lesser read but he said he was going to case me. If he didn't want to anymore, why didn't he try to engage people, get their thoughts on michelar or bartozio? Or case kirsche who he thought was the most likely third scum?

tbh if shinori flips town I wouldn't really think sully is particularly bad. More gut than anything substantial. So I guess it's just an associative read?

[Baldrick]

If there are 4 scum it's 5/4 Lyly tomorrow. You're unlikely to even make it to D4 to see mackc's claim

[Refa]

2 minutes ago, Baldrick said:

@Refa; point to where shinori was doing anything more to push any lynch? I was a lesser read but he said he was going to case me. If he didn't want to anymore, why didn't he try to engage people, get their thoughts on michelar or bartozio? Or case kirsche who he thought was the most likely third scum?

tbh if shinori flips town I wouldn't really think sully is particularly bad. More gut than anything substantial. So I guess it's just an associative read?

wait why do i need to defend shinori, you're the one who cased him and is voting him.  what specific posts did you have in mind when you made your case?

1 minute ago, Baldrick said:

If there are 4 scum it's 5/4 Lyly tomorrow. You're unlikely to even make it to D4 to see mackc's claim

THAT'S WHAT'S BOTHERING ME

-Mackc2 CAN actually be scum from interactions (late vote + voteswap on Sully at the end of the day). I'm pretty paranoid about why he claimed (he was not the leading wagon, and definitely could have held off on claiming until the next day), but the role itself would be stupid as a scum role so ???.

(from me to me, assuming you as scum)

But I also asked because I can't even think of three other people you'd be scum with (I can see you voting Sully/Shinori to make them look better on your flip but not BOTH of your scumbuddies, and the only other person who makes sense as scum w/you is Kirsche who I'm not even reading as scum on his own).

[BBM]

the late day waffling is hitting me hard; this is why day phases should only be 48 hours

it's a good thing Mack switched back from Sully to Baldrick so I wouldn't be tempted to start a turbowagon

mafia is so much easier when you're judging people from the graveyard

[Baldrick]

I don't know if 4 ML/10 town is much harder than 3ML/9 town which is the typical 12P setup. Conspiracy theory; Refa is scum salty that the numbers are townsided.

 

I also have a semi-serious gut read; between he and bbm talking to me he seems to be more confident in reading me. Not as confident as sully was.

For Marth and BBM, my reading was less conclusive and more doubtful of their trying to be deceptive.

 

[Baldrick]

Bbm's last post advocating for 48 hour phases was the same feelings that motivated me to fake a day-ending role.

@refa; his list post of the scum team. Kirsche is the third scum, but shinori hadn't done anything other than yell at him for being un memorable. Why is that scummy?

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Baldrick said:

I don't know if 4 ML/10 town is much harder than 3ML/9 town which is the typical 12P setup. Conspiracy theory; Refa is scum salty that the numbers are townsided.

I would be salty as scum, luckily I am town WE DID IT BOYS get hyped for the big throws.

[Bartozio]

31 minutes ago, Refa said:

Just thought of this now but do people think that there could be a 4 person scum team?  Like numbers wise w/three people it'd be 10/3, and become 11/3 on D4.  That means scum would need four mislynches to win, which would be a bit ridiculous.  If there's a 4 person scum team, then it'd be 9/4, then scum would win on three mislynches AND Mackc2/Paper's role wouldn't grant town an extra mislynch just for existing.

Uhm Refa, don't we have 3 misslynches if it's 10/3 as well? (unless you're already counting in a vig who misses or something). 11/3 just means it's MYLO after 3 misslynches, instead of LYLO...

[Baldrick]

iF bbm IS TOWN, i WILL JUDGE HIM LIKE THIS

[Refa]

Yes?  That doesn't refute what I'm saying, Bart.

[Baldrick]

If it's 9/4 you have two mislay chef to mylo

[Baldrick]

5 minutes ago, Baldrick said:

Bbm's last post advocating for 48 hour phases was the same feelings that motivated me to fake a day-ending role.

@ut shinori hadn't done anything other than yell at him for being un memorable. Why is being unmemorable scummy?

Fixed post

[BBM]

idk the problem is that my confidence in my scumread on you has decreased in the past 24 hours but it also hasn't increased on anyone else to compensate so I don't know who else I would lynch; if you flip town I'd have to basically throw out everything and start rereading from scratch because my general sense of the game would have to be really wrong

I'm maybe a bit more suspicious of Shinori because earlier in the day there were several exchanges where he was like OH YEAH GIVE ME PROOF (wrt both me saying his cases were weak and him being outraged towards Baldrick) and then when I gave proof he just didn't continue the discussion? also feels like he hasn't posted in a while and his posts have a lot of HOW DARE YOU in them and I can't remember Scumnori meta well enough anymore wrt snarkiness

[Baldrick]

Going to work. Bye.

[Refa]

hey if ur scum and ur leaving and ur prolly gonna get lynched why not scumclaim it'll be fun

[Bartozio]

3 minutes ago, Refa said:

Yes?  That doesn't refute what I'm saying, Bart.

...

Your reason for thinking there might be 4 scum members was that otherwise scum would require 4 misslynches when Paper joins. How is the fact that scum needs 4 misslynches to win in a normal 10/3 setup not a good counterpoint?!

Urgh, I'll just assume you're trolling or something...

 

[Refa]

you can even wifom some scumreads on me so i look bad

[SB.]

17 minutes remain!