Persona 5 Mafia - Game Over

[Refa]

Just now, Bartozio said:

...

Your reason for thinking there might be 4 scum members was that otherwise scum would require 4 misslynches when Paper joins. How is the fact that scum needs 4 misslynches to win in a normal 10/3 setup not a good counterpoint?!

Urgh, I'll just assume you're trolling or something...

Okay, let me rephrase that.  You're right, Paper's role does nothing to affect the numbers of lynches/mislynches.  That was my bad.  My point was that you're not refuting that scum needs four mislynches to win in 10/3 and only three to win in 9/4.  Basically, you're not refuting the whole reason that I made that post!  Do you think that there are 4 scum?  Also those numbers were assuming that Mackc2 and Paper were town because they both claimed to be town to each other.

[Bartozio]

Where exactly did you hear from Paper that he claimed town to Mack again?

My guess would be there's still 3 scum members. I also thought there were only 4, maybe 5 non-townies in Rein's game though so...

[Refa]

2 minutes ago, Bartozio said:

Where exactly did you hear from Paper that he claimed town to Mack again?

Mack said Paper was confirmed town in one of his posts and vica versa

[Bartozio]

Exactly, Mack said so. That shouldn't confirm Paper knows Mack is scum I think.

Like, we can just ask Paper when he comes in the game, so it's probably true, but Mack could be lying about that.

[Refa]

2 minutes ago, Bartozio said:

Exactly, Mack said so. That shouldn't confirm Paper knows Mack is scum I think.

Like, we can just ask Paper when he comes in the game, so it's probably true, but Mack could be lying about that.

Fair enough, didn't think about that.

[SB.]

Phase end.

[SB.]

Town decided to turn the coffee dad into coffee dead.

Baldrick - Sojiro Sakura, Town Vanilla, was lynched Day 2

It is now Night 2. You have 23 hours and 55 minutes to send in your actions!

Edited December 6, 2017 by SB.

[SB.]

Elieson subs in for Michelaar.

9 hours remain in the night.

Edited December 5, 2017 by SB.

[SB.]

Phase end.

[SB.]

A lot seems to have happened last night, as three bodies have appeared in the morning.

The first is Mackc2's.


 

Mackc2 - Sae Niijima, Town Interrogator, was killed Night 2

Next to him, surprisingly/unsurprisingly, is the body of Paperblade.

Paperblade has been revealed to have been playing this game (WOW)!



Paperblade - Akira Kurusu, Town Trickster, was killed Night 2

Paperblade has been revealed to no longer be playing the game (WOW)!

The last body is perhaps a more welcome sight.



Shinori - Ann Takamaki, Mafia 1-shot Janitor, was killed Night 2

It is now Day 3. Day 3 ends in 72 hours and 8 minutes. With 8 alive, it takes 3 to lynch and 5 to hammer.

Timer is coming soon.

[Paperblade]

:thinking:

[Refa]

##Vote: kirsche

[Zkirsche]

What's the point of rereading if everyone I reread just dies?

Spoiler

Shinori still needs to tell me what he thinks of my actual cases as my BBM case originally was a lot more than just me agreeing with him and that kinda got dropped(would like to hear about my prims case also). His BBM case was ok – talking about BBM not seeming to pressure his scumreads just commenting on what’s happening. This was an understandable sentiment from BBM’s posts, although not one I agree with at the time.

His reads post on page 8 is really underwhelming. Doesn’t elaborate on a read on Bart, finds Bizz/Quote scummy on gut, Prims wasn’t obvtown which apparently puts him as third highest on the lynch priority, and his Mich read reads like an overjustified OMGUS. Why would scum!Mich in particular wait until you’ve said the same thing three times to unvote?

Next few posts he states he doesn’t want to lynch Sully and criticises Baldrick for seemingly wanting to lynch “anyone not Lord Gaius”. For the record, the only thing Shinori said regarding Ken’s alignment was that his RVS post wasn’t scum, just silly RVS shenanigans.

I didn’t like his Bart vote in D1 then and I still don’t now. Most of his points were pretty meh – Bart not wanting to lynch a sub is somewhat understandable even if the slot is bad, he was voting Ken beforehand so it isn’t really a sheep onto a wagon; though the vote IS a park. He also never explained whether or not Bart’s Sully case was actually scummy and why.

Then that’s it. He votes Bart and leaves, stating that he’d prefer not to leave his vote on LG because he doesn’t think hammer is required. Note he hasn’t: explained why LG/Ken isn’t on his lynch priority at all or why it’s a good/bad lynch, explained his Sully or Prims reads. His reads D1 were not only weak, but mostly unexplained, and he rarely participated in the discussion on the main wagon which made him coast hardcore.

His first post in D2 doesn’t explain why BBM’s reads on Bartozio were half-assed and I feel like his Mich case is just filled with nitpicks. Constantly going over how Mich said he understood the cases on Baldrick but wasn’t feeling it and how this gets contradictory. Again, what is the scum intent here? What is scum!Mich trying to achieve by not wanting to hop onto the wagon? I guess you could argue he is buddies with Baldy but that didn’t happen, so what are your thoughts on him now?

Would like to know what my really iffy post was and why.

At phase end he was defending Baldrick when he was criticising his play all game before the Mack claim? Specifically he criticised Baldrick’s vote on him at the start of D2 but by the end of D2 he “was focusing on other people more” but the only reason why is that Baldrick made “a bad move” which was unlikely to come from scum? How does that stop you from pushing him before the move? What were your thoughts on the cases brought forth against Baldrick at the start of the day by people like BBM and later Paperblade? This is the second time he has avoided the main wagon. Notice how he hasn’t really defended Baldrick that much, just kind of sat on the sidelines saying that he isn’t his priority in terms of being lynched.

@Shinori: What was biased about your scum teams?

Tl;dr Shinori has dodged both lynch wagon, talking very little about them, and has spent much of his days focusing on Bart/Mich in ways which I find contrived. His other reads are not really explained.

Sadly I can’t bring myself to ISO Sully as he has so many posts and he posts outside of SF mafia frequently rip. My general impression from seeing his posts scattered about when ISOing others though is that he likes to sheep other people, but not necessarily sheeping the real reason that person suspected someone. (E.g. agrees with me and BBM about feeling wary about Baldrick D1 when I at least hadn’t got an opinion of Baldrick D1). Not sure if this is scummy thought because a newbie is not only more likely to sheep but also more likely to misunderstand people.

I think the worst thing is that he seems to be also hopping onto the largest wagon at the time each time which is quite opportunistic and I can definitely see newb!scum doing that. @Sully: Can you give another list of reads on each person and reason for each where possible? Like your D2 one I guess. @People scumreading Sully: Can you guys think of an example where Sully backtracked on a read to hop opportunistically on a wagon? You can potentially use his page 18 reads post as a eference.

Also @Refa/Paperblade: What made you think Sully was being coached, like what sentences and stuff do you think were too confident/well made to come from a newbie like him that warranted this suspicion in the first place? I ask because Sully seeming confused about whether Mackc could be scum or not doesn’t suggest that they are being coached by anyone. Also I feel like someone being coached would make way less mistakes.

I think Sully/Shinori makes a reasonable scum team, as Shinori town reads him and never really expands on it, never really commenting on the actual cases made by other people on him in the process. Shinori had also supposedly eased Sully’s suspicions because his Bart case was “weak but with merit” which is weird. What are those merits?

Since Shinori is dead and has flipped scum I am happy to ##Vote: Sully because my confirmation vote defence is dumb and he has bad interactions with Shinori. I'll need a bit of time to think about the otehr scum members. Specifically I'm not sure scum!Mich and scum!Shinori woudl argue like that in the thread. The reasoning on both sides is bad enough to make me think its purposeful bussing but the constant back and forth about misreading each others posts feels unlikely to come from scum/scum.

[Zkirsche]

4 minutes ago, Refa said:

##Vote: kirsche

Don''t suppose you have a reason for this?

[Percivalé]

##vote: sully

[Percivalé]

meh i'm glad shinori flipped scum but it just goes to show how much my reads fucking suck this game

[Percivalé]

i really want either a kirsche or sully lynch today i still think they are the most likely to flip scum. i'll reread shinori interactions later i'm admittedly being really lazy because i fell behind and have trouble reading walls of words

[BBM]

janitors that don't give up flips after dying are the worst also I spent like 5 minutes trying to read the words on Shinori's character's picture

I, too, think kirsche is a scumlord candidate but have a question from rereading:

1) On D1 you were initially a bit suspicious of Marth, and then later on through that day you said you were starting to feel better about him and that you were probably just being paranoid. Why? You were kind of just like "his page 6 is good". I don't disagree with that but then when I basically also unvoted Marth due to his page 6, you accused me of unvoting too quickly. Also, later on in D2 you were again like "BBM's Marth defence is good". I can't find the post again so I don't remember the context but yeah why did you post that? Did you briefly change your mind about Marth at any time on D2?

things that bother me about kirsche:

1) the Prims vote for his votepark on Ken. He basically admits that he hasn't read Bart or Baldrick much to compare his play to their's, which bothers me because why not? since they were voteparking they didn't have a lot of posts, Bartozio especially.

2) comparing the Ken wagon to the Baldrick wagon. I'd misattributed someone else's D1 comment about Baldrick to kirsche I think but this still stands out to me because even though Baldrick was also town their situations were totally different.

the play as a whole with regards to Baldrick confuses me a bit because it's a little inconsistent in that he's at first cautioning hte wagon and then egging it on and I feel like scum would pick one of those strategies and stick to it.

I'm basically also deciding between Sully and kirsche; I don't think anybody is necessarily scummy from Shinori interactions but Bartozio and especially Michelaar/Elie look better because Shinori's posts towards them sounded too harsh to be scum bussing their buddy. I've early-bussed my buddies many-a-time and my posts towards them are always a bit apologetic because I feel bad.

[Refa]

24 minutes ago, kirsche said:

Don''t suppose you have a reason for this?

How you handled the Baldrick case bothers me a lot.  You held off on rereading him until his lynch was set in stone, and then you don't really bother replying to him or reevaluating your read on him based on his later posts.  Also the Baldrick lynch was decided in the first 24 hours of the day, so it bothers me that it took you until the last 24 hours to reread his content (if you were unsure of him) considering you still had time to make other posts.  BBM's post is sheepable as well.

[Refa]

@Magnificence Incarnate Why were you so sure about Shinori being town?  What do you think about his flip and how does it change your reads?

[Bluedoom]

Don't have time to say anything but wow didn't my reads suck. I'll try posting in 13 hours, no guarantee though, its gonna be a tiring day for me -.-

 

@Refa  I went by tone+ I didn't feel like his votes were being pushed from a scum perspective.

[Refa]

Fair enough.  Still interested in your reads from a new perspective, but not much you can do about it if you're going to be busy I guess.

[Zkirsche]

Quote

On D1 you were initially a bit suspicious of Marth, and then later on through that day you said you were starting to feel better about him and that you were probably just being paranoid. Why? You were kind of just like "his page 6 is good". I don't disagree with that but then when I basically also unvoted Marth due to his page 6, you accused me of unvoting too quickly. Also, later on in D2 you were again like "BBM's Marth defence is good". I can't find the post again so I don't remember the context but yeah why did you post that? Did you briefly change your mind about Marth at any time on D2?

My reason for being wary of Marth was mostly fueled off of his awareness of how many people were on each wagon and after his defence felt town on tone I realised that my "suspicion" was kinda dumb and just paranoia. I also liked his Bart case and his reasoning for it so I was pretty ok with the slot at the time, and then later your explanation about him not digging up past games for reasons to townread people as scum was pretty good. I mentioned your defence because I was explaining who would be scum after Baldrick's flip and I was explaining why I thought he was town and why he was excluded from that discussion. I have had a small townread on him from page 9 up until now. As for your suspicions:

1) I was busy and had very little time to do an analysis of all three and of the three I mostly read Prims, and his general competance and my little experience of his recent town play led me to think he was scum parking. I pretty much read none of Baldrick's/Bartozio's posts and only knew that they were voting Ken.

2) The only comparison I made between the Baldrick and Ken cases was that people had settled on them very quickly. I was/am frustrated that town sat on the Ken lynch for so long that it became basically inevitable and then the same warning signs started appearing again so I spoke out about it. To me it doesn't matter if someone is the scummiest scumlord that ever existed (excluding actual guilties or 1v1 situations of course), deciding to lynch them and viewing everything they do as scummy isn't going to help town in any way. I didn't care about lynching Baldrick and I wasn't defending him, commiting to the lynch was a bad idea.

I didn't reread Baldrick until later because rereading the thread was painful enough once to try and look at all of Prims' posts and I was struggling to motivate myself to read it again. By the time I had made my GLORIOUS ANNOUNCEMENT it was 1:20AM and I was having a hard time staying coherant (you might notice my post length dropped to about one line a post with the first thought that came into my head), and I most certainly couldn't focus enough to form a good analysis. I spent much of the next evening reading through his ISO and thinking about what he'd say and whether or not certain posts would come from scum, but came to the overall conclusion that he was scummy and that I was happy to lynch him.

I did read what people were saying when the momentum was shifting against him, but the points being made weren't very convincing to me (e.g. he was town because of the VT claim) and his posts weren't moving me too much one way or the other, with just a few thigns here and there throwing me off. Wouldn't exactly want to lynch anyone else and didn't really have the time to stick around so left it at that.

@Bartozio:

Quote

I thought his cases on me and prims were good, be they both wrong.

Why did you like them?

Quote

That follow up was trying to clearify my initial case though...

My mistake, looked like two different points to me.

What are you thoughts on Sully now that Shinori has flipped scum but Baldrick flipped town? You said that if both flipped scum Sully is less likely to be scum but what now?

[SullyMcGully]

Reads (based mostly on memory, I might need to correct a few errors after more rereading):

Bartozio: Somewhat suspicious. Shinori made that "weak, but with merits" (by that I meant it wasn't highly inconsistent with itself but it was lacking strength) read on him, with its weaknesses it could have been Shinori trying to put some distance between them. Shinori's anti-Bartozio campaign has always been very weak. Bartozio has pretty much always brushed it off, which could be him ignoring a fellow scumbuddy but also fits with his general personality. Bartozio's own interactions with Shinori are never a very bid deal. It's worth noting that while Shinori seemed to fly off his handle in many of his conversations, this never happened with Bartozio. Along with this, Bartozio was on both the Ken/LG and Baldrick wagons from pretty much the beginning and his reasons were not the most extraordinary. He also just doesn't post very much in the first place. These could all very well be symptoms of a busy schedule or somebody who has better things to do with their life than play mafia all the time, though. 

BBM: Probably town. Looking over his posts, he seems fairly town-minded, and he kept a fire under Shinori at times when many of us did not suspect him. That does not seem like scum play to me. 

kirsche: Somewhat suspicious. After what's gone down so far, I'm pretty sure there's at least one fairly experienced player on the scum side, and kirsche would fit that bill. However, I'd say that I'm less suspicious of him than most of those here seem to be. While his lynching history has not been great, he at least has good reasoning to back up most of his reads. However, while the whole "I thought of this amazing case last night but then everyone I suspected died" thing is starting to bother me. Mafia make wallposts all of the time, skilled mafia make good wallposts, the wallpost postmortem about Prims could easily have just been a contrivance to make kirsche look less guilty following Prims' death and the fact that this morning's wallpost postmortem is about Shinori seems a little bit too convenient. Gut-wise, I'm more suspicious of kirsche than Bart, but since my evidence on kirsche is more circumstantial than concrete, I'll probably end up voting Bart anyway. Plus, kirsche seems to have a knack for agreeing with me (or maybe I have a knack for sheeping him), so there's not much I can criticize him on that I myself am not guilty of.

Magnificence Incarnate: Probably town. The way he goes into the meta to build cases reads in a very town-like manner. However, I'm not throwing away the possibility that he could be scum who is doing that because he knows it would make him look a whole lot better. Also, as an FYI, I was reminded while rereading some stuff that it was Marth who really got the Baldrick wagon going, starting with his comments back on D1. Most of his conversation seems fairly town-friendly, though. I wish he would post more.

Michelaar: Probably town. I just can't see him and Shinori having that much animosity towards each other and being on the same team. I just can't.

Refa: Paranoid. He has such perfect townplay it's putting me on edge. Like, with such excellent play, how are we at D3 with five townies dead? I'm not blaming him for their deaths, that's the entire idea: he's absolutely blameless! So there's a bit of a conspiracy theory I've been rolling around in my head. This has a very small chance of actually being the case, but I figured I'd point it out anyway: what if Refa is scum? Our only confirmed scum, Shinori, was never put under a lot of pressure by Refa. I mean, sure there's been exchanges, but hasn't Refa been suspicious of just about everyone at some point or another? It's this perfect townplay, this constant suspicion of everyone that makes Refa look unbiased and trustworthy. He pays attention to everyone, not just the primary wagons. He asks many questions, but is noticeably lacking in strong opinions. That's what bothers me. He never says he's sure of anything, he treats everything like it's an uncertainty. Therefore, his constantly questioning nature makes him look townie without forcing him to take sides strongly. He's not the only one I suspect of being this way, though...

via: Paranoid. I suspect via for many of the same reasons as Refa. He's constantly considering everything, but unlike Refa, he does put his foot down every once in a while. However, these opinions seem to waver quite a bit. For instance, one day he's sure of me being town but this morning, things have changed. What's the point of him stating solid opinions if he doubles back on them later with a good excuse? It makes good camouflage, that's for sure. Once again, the chances of this being the case are very slim, but could he be scum? I could actually see him and Refa on a team together: they consult back and forth, coming to similar conclusions on almost everything. How much of our faith in Refa as a townie is based on how in sync he seems to be with via? What about vice versa? This is a long shot, but I thought I'd put it out there.

I suppose, just for a start, 

##Unvote

##Vote: Bartozio

@Bartozio: I want to hear some good, well-thought-out cases from you today that don't heavily rely on sheeping others. If you can satisfy me, I'll consider unvoting you.

@everyone: How is Shinori dead? Is it a vigilante act or something?

On a lighter note, we had a cow calve today and I've decided to name the new baby "Prims", after our departed friend. May this calf not suffer the same fate.

I can't believe I spent three hours writing this. I spend way too much time on this game. I'm going to bed now, but expect an NK analysis sometime tomorrow.

[BBM]

3 hours ago, kirsche said:

1) I was busy and had very little time to do an analysis of all three and of the three I mostly read Prims, and his general competance and my little experience of his recent town play led me to think he was scum parking. I pretty much read none of Baldrick's/Bartozio's posts and only knew that they were voting Ken.

this is just difficult for me to take at face value because I get being busy and all but if the central part of your case revolves around something you know two other people are doing as well you should probably at least skim their posts? your reasons for picking Prims over the other two are because you expect better play from him and I think Refa covered how that's dumb on D1.

question to you, who is the 3rd scum along with Shinori and Sully and do they make sense as buddies with both of them?

##Vote: kirsche

this vote is also 70% PoE because I read Sully and Bartozio again and I just, idk I can't bring myself to vote for either. In a vacuum I'm leaning a bit towards Bartozio being more likely scum because I do agree that although his D2 content is good it's largely taken from other people and repackaged, but his interactions with Shinori are better.

Either one of them is still scum or one of my other reads is wrong I guess SIGH Refa changed his avatar in the middle of the game, which could mean I'm wrong about him