Voting Gauntlet: Winter Festival vs. New Year’s!

[EricaofRenais]

Man I would love it if Chrom beats Tharja just because I am tiered of Tharja being VGs and winning she need to go on a long break from VGs.  I won't hold my breath though.  Since Chrom will probably lose I will go with winner of Robin/Lissa.  

[Javi Blizz]

Well, so it seems that Robin vs Lissa will remain the same until the end. Time to sleep I suppose, let’s hope to get those 2100 feathers tomorrow, Beruka is waiting for her new toy (upgrade to killer axe+)

[mcsilas]

27 minutes ago, Zeo said:

If it's green, that may actually be mine... that's weird, especially if you aren't on team Takumi. 

And yeah, Takumi just got 2 multipliers in a row, it doesn't seem like he's going to win. He'll either give Ryoma a last hour Multiplier, or Ryoma will get a multiplier an hour or so before the last one and Takumi won't be able to catch up.

Yes green glow. Maybe it just picks random friend representatives for a background

Also RIP my ranking for Team Lissa. At 11,000 rank and unranked globally :(

Not going to spend flags on non-multiplier hours though

[Ice Dragon]

12 minutes ago, mcsilas said:

Yes green glow. Maybe it just picks random friend representatives for a background

@Zeo

The units chosen in the back file and front file when showing how many points you earned are just representatives from your friends list (no idea what determines the order they appear in, though, since I've noticed they always appear in the same order) with no bearing on which team they're siding with. If you don't have enough friends to fill up both files, they'll just have empty spots at the back of each line.

[Anacybele]

21 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

Based on the fact that Team Takumi might be rallying too hard, Team Ryoma actually has the advantage right now.

The algorithm they're using for their predictions doesn't account for end-of-round rallies very well.

Well, that's why I hope it's wrong. But is the tracker just assuming Ryoma, Azura, Lissa, and Tharja will be going to round two since they're listed as going against each other? That's a bit weird.

[Ice Dragon]

4 minutes ago, Anacybele said:

But is the tracker just assuming Ryoma, Azura, Lissa, and Tharja will be going to round two since they're listed as going against each other? That's a bit weird.

The authors make the sheets for the next round when there are a few hours left and guess at who will win. The names change now and then if the situation changes, but they'll always be updated to the actual winners once they're known.

[Anacybele]

2 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

The authors make the sheets for the next round when there are a few hours left and guess at who will win. The names change now and then if the situation changes, but they'll always be updated to the actual winners once they're known.

Ah, okay. That makes sense.

Edited January 3, 2018 by Anacybele

[Zeo]

18 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

@Zeo

The units chosen in the back file and front file when showing how many points you earned are just representatives from your friends list (no idea what determines the order they appear in, though, since I've noticed they always appear in the same order) with no bearing on which team they're siding with. If you don't have enough friends to fill up both files, they'll just have empty spots at the back of each line.

Thanks for clarification.

So there's two ways Takumi can win this and one way he can lose. If the army can pull ahead and get a "same" Ryoma can potentially be stopped from getting a last hour multiplier, at that point all they have to do is hold on to that lead for the last hour. Or Ryoma keeps the lead enough to give Takumi another multiplier in which case it's over there as well.

Otherwise Takumi's going to give Ryoma a multiplier after this hour and it's GG. I know no one is really following this gauntlet (me included), it's just an observation.

Edited January 3, 2018 by Zeo

[Ice Dragon]

Robin v. Lissa is still in wtfland. Team Lissa looks like it can hold onto the lead.

Chrom v. Tharja is going to hinge mostly on the result of this next hour. If the score lands in Same hell right on the outside edge of Team Tharja's side, Team Tharja will give Team Chrom a final hour multiplier. Anywhere else in Same hell and overshooting are both a win for Tharja.

Team Azura is still poised for a win. Serious weird shit has to happen for that to not happen.

Team Takumi is almost certainly going to either land the score on Team Takumi's side or overshoot, both of which are likely to result in a win for Ryoma.

[Clogon]

1 hour ago, Ice Dragon said:

I'm looking at the graph of Robin v. Lissa and seriously what the fuck is going on there? Team Robin Lissa usually puts in double Team Lissa's Robin's score during multiplier hours, but Team Lissa Robin typically gains on Team Robin Lissa otherwise. What the hell?

I am confused too! I have 0 flags spent and this same hell is ruining my rankings. :(

[Alexmender]

So the chances of Azura losing are pretty low? Good! I want to stay with her all the way because she's the only unit I have and because this is the first time I''ve performed so well in a VG.

[Sunwoo]

Funny how voting gauntlets are when I get lots of friend requests from strangers. I'm running NY!Azura with luna as my lead unit and I'm on team Takumi, so I can only assume they want a chance to use my Azura again.

[mcsilas]

53 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

@Zeo

The units chosen in the back file and front file when showing how many points you earned are just representatives from your friends list (no idea what determines the order they appear in, though, since I've noticed they always appear in the same order) with no bearing on which team they're siding with. If you don't have enough friends to fill up both files, they'll just have empty spots at the back of each line.

Oh that's interesting to get confirmation on it.

Also random question- what's better for global ranking? 

Being unranked in this round and getting a really really good ranks in later rounds (because of more flags)? Or just getting at least SOME rank on round 1, even if it's really low (which would mean I'd spend 200 flags on Lissa despite no multiplier).

[Rezzy]

6 minutes ago, mcsilas said:

Oh that's interesting to get confirmation on it.

Also random question- what's better for global ranking? 

Being unranked in this round and getting a really really good ranks in later rounds (because of more flags)? Or just getting at least SOME rank on round 1, even if it's really low (which would mean I'd spend 200 flags on Lissa despite no multiplier).

It's all about total score for ranking.  If you're on a team that will get tons of multipliers, wait to use most of your flags the second day to really rack up the score.  If you're on a team that doesn't get much or you don't want to risk not getting any the second day, spend at least a few the first day.

Unless you're in the last round, or really want to give your guy the push he needs to win, never spend your flags on a non-multiplier hour.

 

In other news, I managed to get over a million points on Team Takumi and am ranked 132 right now!

[Ice Dragon]

11 minutes ago, mcsilas said:

Also random question- what's better for global ranking? 

Being unranked in this round and getting a really really good ranks in later rounds (because of more flags)? Or just getting at least SOME rank on round 1, even if it's really low (which would mean I'd spend 200 flags on Lissa despite no multiplier).

Cumulative ranking depends most on using your flags during multiplier hours. Even spending flags on low multipliers is better than spending flags without multipliers. Every flag you spend off of a multiplier hour is at best worth only one third of a flag spent during a multiplier hour.

[Zangetsu]

Damn it, I really don't want Azura to lose. *sobs*

 

Damn you multipliers!

[Rezzy]

1 minute ago, Zangetsu said:

Damn it, I really don't want Azura to lose. *sobs*

 

Damn you multipliers!

It would be the epitome of irony if Camilla pulled another upset after she was the one who brought it about in the first place.

[mcsilas]

@Rezzy @Ice Dragon Okay thanks for the advice.

I was just considering on spending some because I'm at 11,110 rank at the moment so not sure if spending 200 flags is enough to push me up to the next flag reward bracket. Doesn't look like there will be any other multiplier.

Although I guess if Lissa wins I get 500 flags anyway and that offsets the lesser feathers for team ranking

[Sunwoo]

Lost a match because I decided to bring Nowi to get her past 1500 merit. Random ally was a Fjorm who basically did nothing of note. Should've just stuck with my Azura. I sort of hope Takumi gets at least one more multiplier to salvage my score.

EDIT: Eh ... okay, we're probably not getting a multiplier. Well, I'm still ranked about 1760, so that's good enough for me.

Edited January 3, 2018 by Sunwoo

[Zangetsu]

Just now, Rezzy said:

It would be the epitome of irony if Camilla pulled another upset after she was the one who brought it about in the first place.

Is that really fair though? Every time she wins through multiplier means it's ironic now?

[Rezzy]

4 minutes ago, mcsilas said:

@Rezzy @Ice Dragon Okay thanks for the advice.

I was just considering on spending some because I'm at 11,110 rank at the moment so not sure if spending 200 flags is enough to push me up to the next flag reward bracket. Doesn't look like there will be any other multiplier.

Although I guess if Lissa wins I get 500 flags anyway and that offsets the lesser feathers for team ranking

That's probably too big a gap to bridge without a multiplier bonus.  I'd just save your flags for next round.  If you were right at the cut-off maybe, but over a thousand is probably too much, and you'd be hurting your overall score.

1 minute ago, Zangetsu said:

Is that really fair though? Every time she wins through multiplier means it's ironic now?

I didn't say it was fair.  I was against the whole multiplier idea from the beginning.  I've just given up complaining about it.

[Zangetsu]

Just now, Rezzy said:

I didn't say it was fair.  I was against the whole multiplier idea from the beginning.  I've just given up complaining about it.

No I meant her just winning with a multiplier, not the multiplier itself.

I thoroughly agree, fuck multipliers.

[DarkLordIvy]

Hmm same hell for Takumi and Ryoma. Goodie. 

I hope Soup Prince can pull a win. If he looses I have no idea who I’ll join since it looks like Robin and Chrom are sunk. 

Also not sure wether or not I should spend any flags this hour. I’m rank 1,802 right now and I’d kind of like to break into the 1000. 

[Alexmender]

9 minutes ago, Zangetsu said:

Damn it, I really don't want Azura to lose. *sobs*

 

Damn you multipliers!

You got me scared for a second!

There's still a good chance that Azura and Camilla will stay in Same hell if both teams keep a consistent stream of votes according to the predictor.

[Anacybele]

Rally Team Ryoma! We can do this! Porcupine prince and best big brother ftw!