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Choose your legends 2 predictions


Jonahtron
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6 minutes ago, TheNiddo said:

Likewise, don't assume things like say, people will learn from the last CYL and rally around one particular version of a character (Marth). Quite frankly, the general play base fall under one of the following: 1) not smart enough to pick up on that idea 2) has that idea but thinks version B instead of version A should be the rallying point 3) wasn't around for the original CYL and has no idea about the vote splits. Marth is doomed because of this. Don't think he will ever be able to secure a top 2.

I don't think it's unfair to say a lot of people who voted the first time around seeked the results afterwards, hence why I think they learned. Beyond that and while I agree that many don't pay attention to these things, I do think you're giving people too little credit here. Again, we'll see.

As for the split vote problem, see my previous post. It's all fun and games until a technically more popular character loses because of a design choice no voter is responsible for.

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Imagine in Heroes had a built in betting system for this. Wager Feathers, Badges, Great Badges, Refining Stones, Arena Medals, Sacred Coins, and Orbs on what rank a character will end up being in at the end!

A maximum of X resource (X varying depending on the resource) can be placed on a given character. Your payout is conditional on how close the character you chose to bet on is to the position you guessed. If the character was within A positions up or down, you will keep what you wagered, but earn no more, any further out than A, and your wager is forfeit. If the character was within B (closer than A) positions, it will be M times your wager, within C positions (closer than B) you will earn N times your wager (more than M), and of course if you get the ranking exactly right, you will earn P times your wager (more than N).

If a significant quantity of FEHeroes players predict Character Q will end up in Rank V or within U spots of it, the payouts will be reduced appropriately.

Edited by Interdimensional Observer
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6 hours ago, TheNiddo said:

I would not use a reddit poll to extrapolate what will happen in CYL2 at all.

Reddit has a far, far, far higher concentration of old school FE fans than FE:H at whole. While is certainly nice data to have, in terms of guessing how CYL2 will go its effectively meaningless. 

Likewise, don't assume things like say, people will learn from the last CYL and rally around one particular version of a character (Marth). Quite frankly, the general play base fall under one of the following: 1) not smart enough to pick up on that idea 2) has that idea but thinks version B instead of version A should be the rallying point 3) wasn't around for the original CYL and has no idea about the vote splits. Marth is doomed because of this. Don't think he will ever be able to secure a top 2.

I would agree but it's still an indication.  Reddit has 50k members, plus those who don't have accounts but still linger around (so we'll assume the lurkers counter-balance those who aren't really members anymore and keep it at 50k).  Right now, it looks like 7% of the votes there are going towards Ephraim. If we average out that they'll vote for ephraim 5 times (some will vote 7, others will vote only one-three times), that's more votes than Ephraim got last time total at 17500 votes.

Edited by Lushen
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3 hours ago, TheNiddo said:

 

EDIT: As for their weapons/classes

Hector - Sword Armour. Something about it being his brother's sword.
Chrom - Bow infantry. 
Tharja - Blue tome pegasus knight.
Camilla - Green tome horse. 

Hector could just have blazing Durandal. He is Lycian too, after all.

 

1 hour ago, TheNiddo said:

I would not use a reddit poll to extrapolate what will happen in CYL2 at all.

Reddit has a far, far, far higher concentration of old school FE fans than FE:H at whole. While is certainly nice data to have, in terms of guessing how CYL2 will go its effectively meaningless. 

Likewise, don't assume things like say, people will learn from the last CYL and rally around one particular version of a character (Marth). Quite frankly, the general play base fall under one of the following: 1) not smart enough to pick up on that idea 2) has that idea but thinks version B instead of version A should be the rallying point 3) wasn't around for the original CYL and has no idea about the vote splits. Marth is doomed because of this. Don't think he will ever be able to secure a top 2.

Considering Garnefe was high up there, we should talk the Reddit poll with a tiny grain of salt. Really don’t think Heroes brought in a ton more Ephraim fans, so he’ll probably still get beaten by Marth.

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6 hours ago, Jonahtron said:

Considering Garnefe was high up there, we should talk the Reddit poll with a tiny grain of salt. Really don’t think Heroes brought in a ton more Ephraim fans, so he’ll probably still get beaten by Marth.

Remember Marth only beat Ephraim by 900.  And I think Ephraim has moved up and Marth down.

As for females, I would not trust the reddit poll at all with females.  The reason I trust the males is because I expect most of the casuals (80+%) to vote for females.  This makes the females really unpredictable but if I'm right they'll end up leaving the male vote to reddit and the JP folks.

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My current plans for voting:

1. Hector

2 Saber

3 Micaiah

4 Ryoma

5 Hector

6 Saber

7. Hector

 

Wish I could hand out some votes for more obscure favorites, but I would like to contribute as much as I can for the Ostian General.

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10 minutes ago, Lushen said:

Remember Marth only beat Ephraim by 900.  And I think Ephraim has moved up and Marth down.

As for females, I would not trust the reddit poll at all with females.  The reason I trust the males is because I expect most of the casuals (80+%) to vote for females.  This makes the females really unpredictable but if I'm right they'll end up leaving the male vote to reddit and the JP folks.

Doubt Marth’s gone down at all. I feel like he’s sorta immovable in his popularity. He’s kinda a big deal.

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23 minutes ago, Jonahtron said:

Doubt Marth’s gone down at all. I feel like he’s sorta immovable in his popularity. He’s kinda a big deal.

I mean there's no arguing that Marth mains voted for Marth because of smash.  So those voters are perfectly movable and I think the smash community's impact is much smaller.  Either way, Ephraim has definitely gained in popularity due to FEH and all this new SS content is probably putting people in the mood to vote for the Renais twins.

Edited by Lushen
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6 hours ago, Jonahtron said:

Sure, Reinhardt’s really good, but no one really cares about his character. Memes will get him so far, but Leif will likely still have more votes.

You say that but I don't see many people cosplaying as Leif for Halloween. As a character gets you out of a sticky situation, you get attached to it. Just looking at the Reddit Poll shows how popular he is on the site. Many people love him for his loyalty and his reliability from his ingame lines.

Leif is indeed popular with the older FE fans but most FEH players who are doing the voting have no attachments to him/her. Given the large number of people who discovered FE via FEH, I doubt there will be many contenders in the top 20 that have not been released yet.

Edited by Clogon
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I'm doubtful Ephraim gained popularity because of FE:H. He already had a fairly loyal fanbase, but nothing has really been done with him in FE:H to make him gain more. He's not a meta unit (so he won't gain a Reinhardt style boost), and his Disgusting meme is well, not something I see taking votes away from Awakening/Fates crowd (which is where he would need to steal from).

Don't forget, he's quite possibly losing some votes to Alm as well now that Alm is actually known by the casual audience. Heck they probably know Alm better than Ephraim as a whole. Would not shock me to see Alm in the top 5 because while Echoes wasn't received as well gameplay wise most people liked its writing. 

Most of the previous Ike/Roy votes are probably going to Hector (old school FE) and split among the two different versions of Marth (Smash FE fans). The votes from old school FE fans going from Ike/Roy to him are likely counterbalanced by losing votes to Alm imo. That's before considering say, some Lucina fans who decide to vote Chrom this time around. 

Ephraim has a chance of 2nd for the males for sure. But my money would be on Chrom. Probably Hector > Chrom > Ephraim > Alm > Marth (Shadow Dragons)

Edited by TheNiddo
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If we assume it’s like last time (too 2 boys and top 2 girls) 

 

chrom has a chance. He’s 4th place and the 5th place boy is gone so 6th place would have to jump to 4th...

 

but most Ike voters won’t vote for Chrom. They’ll pick Marth and there were lots of Ike voters 

 

not to mention Chrom got 2 extra Axe variations already which will lower his votes...

 

so sadly Chrom has no chance really. 

 

So idk if I should be hopeful and vote him or vote someone else I like and can see winning. Or characters who won’t win but I want IS to know I care. 

Edited by IEatLasers
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45 minutes ago, TheNiddo said:

I'm doubtful Ephraim gained popularity because of FE:H. He already had a fairly loyal fanbase, but nothing has really been done with him in FE:H to make him gain more. He's not a meta unit (so he won't gain a Reinhardt style boost), and his Disgusting meme is well, not something I see taking votes away from Awakening/Fates crowd (which is where he would need to steal from).

Don't forget, he's quite possibly losing some votes to Alm as well now that Alm is actually known by the casual audience. Heck they probably know Alm better than Ephraim as a whole. Would not shock me to see Alm in the top 5 because while Echoes wasn't received as well gameplay wise most people liked its writing. 

Most of the previous Ike/Roy votes are probably going to Hector (old school FE) and split among the two different versions of Marth (Smash FE fans). The votes from old school FE fans going from Ike/Roy to him are likely counterbalanced by losing votes to Alm imo. That's before considering say, some Lucina fans who decide to vote Chrom this time around. 

Ephraim has a chance of 2nd for the males for sure. But my money would be on Chrom. Probably Hector > Chrom > Ephraim > Alm > Marth (Shadow Dragons)

I think Ephraim gained a lot of popularity through both the VG and the resurfacing Disgusting memes.  I don't think it's that he picked up new fans as much as he re-incited old fans who moved on.  Remember Ephraim beat Chrom in CYL which indicates a trend of Ephraim going up or Chrom down which we can expect has continued.  Besides, there are three Chroms already, do people really feel like voting for a fourth?

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3 hours ago, Lushen said:

I mean there's no arguing that Marth mains voted for Marth because of smash.  So those voters are perfectly movable and I think the smash community's impact is much smaller.  Either way, Ephraim has definitely gained in popularity due to FEH and all this new SS content is probably putting people in the mood to vote for the Renais twins.

I just don’t see Ephraim gaining all that much popularity from heroes. Sure, he’s really good in heroes, to the extent that I use him even though I don’t really like him, but it’s not like sacred stones was a particularly obscure fe game before, it being a lot of people’s first fe (not as much as fe7, but still). I just don’t see him actually gaining too many new fans from feh.

 

2 hours ago, IEatLasers said:

If we assume it’s like last time (too 2 boys and top 2 girls) 

 

chrom has a chance. He’s 4th place and the 5th place boy is gone so 6th place would have to jump to 4th...

 

but most Ike voters won’t vote for Chrom. They’ll pick Marth and there were lots of Ike voters 

 

not to mention Chrom got 2 extra Axe variations already which will lower his votes...

 

so sadly Chrom has no chance really. 

 

So idk if I should be hopeful and vote him or vote someone else I like and can see winning. Or characters who won’t win but I want IS to know I care. 

I don’t see why Chrom having 2 seasonal variants hurts his chances that much. Like, it may make a few people salty that he’s in the game so much, but not really the people who would be voting for him in the first place. Like, it could hurt him a little, but not to the extent where he’d have no chance. He had a pretty large lead over Marth, and I’m thinking most Ike voters will actually go to Hector, as they’re more similar. Chrom could be threatened if they combine the Marth votes, but they probably won’t.

 

edit: Roy fans will probably vote Marth though, considering smash bros is like, the only reason to vote Roy. 

Edited by Jonahtron
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2 hours ago, IEatLasers said:

No I think largely they hate him that’s why I think Chrom is in trouble 

Something else-and correct me if I'm wrong-but it seems that if you like Chrom, you are more likely to dislike Lucina than it is the other way around. 

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3 hours ago, Jonahtron said:

I just don’t see Ephraim gaining all that much popularity from heroes. Sure, he’s really good in heroes, to the extent that I use him even though I don’t really like him, but it’s not like sacred stones was a particularly obscure fe game before, it being a lot of people’s first fe (not as much as fe7, but still). I just don’t see him actually gaining too many new fans from feh.

Ephraim has received a significant amount of visibility compared to Marth. eg being in more banners, getting a refinable weapon, getting developer commentary, and being a decent unit. Marth does have a larger established fanbase though. You also have to take into account the large number of new people that started playing FEH, who had not played any of the previous games. The Serene Forest and Reddit FEH pages are far bigger than for the other games. 

I would like The Reinhardt to get first but I don't know if that can happen. Top ten for sure. 

As for the polls, it is always good to look at a lot of them and from different regions.

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59 minutes ago, Arthur97 said:

Something else-and correct me if I'm wrong-but it seems that if you like Chrom, you are more likely to dislike Lucina than it is the other way around. 

Hmm idk about they one as much !

 

sometimes her popularity makes me mad 

 

but that’s because I’m annoyed at girls getting popular because they’re beauty. As mucu as we all (all people) want to look beautiful and try our best to look our best, it’s kind of annoying that some characters especially women are only looked st for appearance 

 

 

Idk maybe it just bugs me cuzza irl stuff. I often feel that many of the people who chat and hang with me wouldn’t if they didn’t know/like how I looked. 

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8 hours ago, Lushen said:

Remember Marth only beat Ephraim by 900.  And I think Ephraim has moved up and Marth down.

Did you combine Marth's votes? That's quite a gap Ephraim needs to overcome.

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22 hours ago, Zangetsu said:

I feel like a lot of people are underestimating Marth if they're really going to combine the votes.

By the way, is there a source for that? First time I've heard of it... then again I've been out of the loop for a while.

Also it's pretty ironic that I find myself arguing in favor of Marth when I have a strong dislike for the character and he's definitely not getting any votes from me.

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My predictions are

Boys

1st Hector. Hector was 3rd last CYL and with Roy and Ike out of the picture he’ll probably end up on the top this time.

2nd Marth or Ephraim. Ephraim seems pretty popular but Marth might overtake him with the help of the Smash fans however Marth does have his votes split between SD and Mystery so that might hinder him.

Girls

 Tharja and/or Camilla. They both have haters and fans but their fans were plentiful and loyal enough to get them up to 3rd and 4th.

Nino. Nino tries her best. Assuming either Tharja or Camilla don’t make it Nino has a chance now that she has gained some popularity in heroes from being meta.

Honorable mention to Reinhardt for the boys block for the same reason as Nino

Edited by NegativeExponents-
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1 hour ago, Cysx said:

By the way, is there a source for that? First time I've heard of it... then again I've been out of the loop for a while.

Also it's pretty ironic that I find myself arguing in favor of Marth when I have a strong dislike for the character and he's definitely not getting any votes from me.

https://events.fire-emblem-heroes.com/vote/result?overall=1

If you combine the 2 votes for SD & MoTE Marth he has 24,547 & barely beats Chrom but he's still behind Hector.

I'm not sure what you're disdain towards him is since I don't see him do anything controversial but I'm not really into hating characters to begin with. Not that I'm above such feelings either.

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15 minutes ago, Zangetsu said:

https://events.fire-emblem-heroes.com/vote/result?overall=1

If you combine the 2 votes for SD & MoTE Marth he has 24,547 & barely beats Chrom but he's still behind Hector.

I'm not sure what you're disdain towards him is since I don't see him do anything controversial but I'm not really into hating characters to begin with. Not that I'm above such feelings either.

It's 100% a me thing, and pretty old at that. You know how some people dislike Lucina for taking the spotlight away from every other character? It's very comparable. Even though these days, I can hardly blame him for doing that anymore.

Yes, Marth's total has been discussed on page 2, actually. I was just curious to know what made you think there was a chance they'd combine his votes. That being said, that page doesn't do that, at least for me. I'm just seeing one Marth, at 15877.

Edited by Cysx
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https://www.reddit.com/r/FireEmblemHeroes/comments/7san0i/the_japanese_community_knows_of_our_cyl2_poll_and/

This is interesting. Gives somewhat of a insight into characters we'll vote for from the perspective of a few Japanese. Not that many comments/opinions, so we can't really say that it's what the whole community thinks. But there are a few comments that seem like a common opinion like the Ephraim one since they're surprised. There a few other comments that you can find in the post.
名無しさん 2018/01/22(月) 19:48:24.93 エフラムなんでこんな強いんだ —> Why is Ephraim so popular?
名無しさん 2018/01/22(月) 19:52:38.99 エフラム人気あるなぁ —> Wow, Ephraim is so popular

名無しさん 2018/01/22(月) 19:49:24.24 セリカは日本じゃエフィより人気ないイメージだったけど海外じゃ違うのな —> Huh, in Japan, Faye is more popular than Celica, but I guess foreign countries are different.

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2 minutes ago, Cysx said:

It's 100% a me thing, and pretty old at that. You know how some people dislike Lucina for taking the spotlight away from every other character? It's very comparable. Even though these days, I can hardly blame him for doing that anymore.

Yes, Marth's total has been discussed on page 2, actually. I was just curious to know what made you think there was a chance they'd combine his votes. That being said, that page doesn't do that, at least for me. I'm just seeing one Marth, at 15877.

Combine his vote from his appearance in Shadow Dragon & Mystery of the Emblem & you get the result.

I found it hard to believe Lucina can take any spotlight when InSyst seems to be more interested making her be in the shadows of Chrom & Marth.

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