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Choose your legends 2 predictions


Jonahtron
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Celica is a definite win, and I think they would probably make her the sword unit out of the four. (Celica's Blade)

Hector is also a definite win as I'm pretty sure there' a big diff between him and the other votes below him like last time. (I think he'll be Axe again)

Ephraim / Marth I think Ephraim could use a bow(archery competition with Innes), but while Marth would probably use a Spear (King Marth exists, but it's very vague so it works out).

Camilla could pretty much be anything at this point honestly (probably a Tome user)

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2 hours ago, Thane said:

While true, remember that some of the series' juggernaughts are out of the picture, which could leave votes a lot more spread out. Lucina beat Tharja with, what, 13k votes? I'm not sure Ephraim has that lead over Marth. 

You're right. I think this is made clear by the fact that Celica is the top pick, who is arguably a newcomer to this poll since Echoes basically made Gaidan characters actually exist to a significant amount of people. Marth is really hindered by the fact that he's split, which could keep him out of beating Ephraim. The number of voters and voters are significantly smaller this time, as well. Voting pool is likely somewhat different, as seen by the mid results. The only character I really feel certain about is Hector. 

I imagine vote counts are fairly similar for Marth, Chrom and Ephraim and the second place will likely only edge out the third place by a small margin. Lyn fans will almost certainly go to Hector, but I don't think Ike fans or Lucina fans are a natural transition to any other popular character. I would've expected Lucina fans to move to Chrom, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

I generally still think the top four won't change, though. Camilla is inescapable in Fire Emblem right now, and the developers seem to favor her. Mere exposure creates the popularity that will keep her up there. Celica has a well received design, is a good character in Heroes, and is recent, plus she did make it into Warriors if that helps at all. Think she'll take the spot also. Only shake-up I could see is Eirika as a dark-horse pulling down Camilla out of second. She was added in a banner the game dropped in the middle of the voting period, which will definitely help.

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Now that I think about it Celica could be a sword user with Beloved Zophia as unique weapon and Omega Ragnarok as an exclusive special, give the weapon some special bonus and maybe make the special an powerful AoE one since the current ones are kinda crappy

Edited by DeviantMind
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11 hours ago, dmurr said:

Only shake-up I could see is Eirika as a dark-horse pulling down Camilla out of second. She was added in a banner the game dropped in the middle of the voting period, which will definitely help.

How I hope so...

But I've seen more hate for the new Eirika than additional support, unfortunately. What about you?

I really, REALLY hope both Renais twins made it in!!!

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12 minutes ago, DefyingFates said:

How I hope so...

But I've seen more hate for the new Eirika than additional support, unfortunately. What about you?

I really, REALLY hope both Renais twins made it in!!!

The main reason for that, probably, is that she essentially got a free Brave version and really recently. She doesn't need to win.

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11 minutes ago, Arthur97 said:

The main reason for that, probably, is that she essentially got a free Brave version and really recently. She doesn't need to win.

Honestly, if I had voted for Eirika, I would've felt cheated by her sudden appearance in the most recent banner. While I understand supporting your favorite characters, I agree that Eirika is arguably one of the least deserving of a victory right now as far as pure gamplay is concerned.

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45 minutes ago, DefyingFates said:

How I hope so...

But I've seen more hate for the new Eirika than additional support, unfortunately. What about you?

I really, REALLY hope both Renais twins made it in!!!

Internet complaints are never accurate, really. Eirika was below fCorrin in the last CYL, but is 3rd in this one below Camilla and Celica. Look at Myrrh for reference. I just checked, she wasn't even in the top 100 before, now she's 18th. If you ask me, the banner did nothing but give those characters an advantage. 

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My FINAL predictions are:

Hector and Ephraim win the the men's side. Marth just BARELY misses out. Outrage online due to split votes.

Celica and Eirika win on the women's side. Eirika gets a push from the banner and overtakes Camilla. Veronica pushes Azura out of 4th place. 

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Anywho for those saying that the reddit poll doesn't matter, I beg to differ.

Spoiler

eZ8BTCB.png

Is it exact? No, but it wasn't expected to be either.  If you take the reddit poll and amplify it by why we can expect from outside of reddit (camilla boost, hector performing slightly better than ephraim, marth boost, chrom boost, fates royals boost), you pretty much get the interim results exactly.  

Edited by Lushen
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4 minutes ago, Lau said:

But the FEH sub Reddit  is just a small portion of the community, so I wouldn't put too much stock in that.

Same goes for here too.

50K Members.  Multiply that by the percent that voted for Ephraim on the Reddit poll and you get more votes for Ephraim than he got total last time.

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1 minute ago, Lushen said:

50K Members.  Multiply that by the percent that voted for Ephraim on the Reddit poll and you get more votes for Ephraim than he got total last time.

Maybe so, but I'm just saying, don't put a lot of stock in these kind of things. They don't represent the entire community, and going off of hypothesis' and what not isn't the best way to decide the results.

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28 minutes ago, Lushen said:

Anywho for those saying that the reddit poll doesn't matter, I beg to differ.

  Reveal hidden contents

eZ8BTCB.png

Is it exact? No, but it wasn't expected to be either.  If you take the reddit poll and amplify it by why we can expect from outside of reddit (camilla boost, hector performing slightly better than ephraim, marth boost, chrom boost, fates royals boost), you pretty much get the interim results exactly.  

So, you're saying that if you take these results and edit them, then you get the right results.

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3 hours ago, dmurr said:

Internet complaints are never accurate, really. Eirika was below fCorrin in the last CYL, but is 3rd in this one below Camilla and Celica. Look at Myrrh for reference. I just checked, she wasn't even in the top 100 before, now she's 18th. If you ask me, the banner did nothing but give those characters an advantage. 

At first I wondered if Myrrh's placement was just because she was a unit everyone wanted but hadn't shown up at the start of voting, then remembered the banner was revealed at the start of Day 3. A small part of me still wonders if her placement is just because of those first two days, but by Naga do I hope you're right...

2 hours ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

My FINAL predictions are:

Hector and Ephraim win the the men's side. Marth just BARELY misses out. Outrage online due to split votes.

Celica and Eirika win on the women's side. Eirika gets a push from the banner and overtakes Camilla. Veronica pushes Azura out of 4th place. 

Every time I see someone suggest the banner helped her, I get very happy (as I mentioned earlier, I've only seen people complain about it)...

2 hours ago, silveraura25 said:

What I want: Marth, Ephraim, Celica, Veronica

What I expect: Hector, Ephraim, Camilla, Loki

This made me chuckle but also very sad.

56 minutes ago, Morswo said:

I hope that we get Erika in the top 2 of the female poll and Ephraim as 2nd placed male. 

The most important thing for me is Caeldori in the top 100.

That would be wonderful!

I really hope Caeldori gets attention too!

Edited by DefyingFates
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1 hour ago, Arthur97 said:

Really? Because you listed several adjustments that had to be made. If you have to edit the data that much, how accurate is it really?

How to explain....

There are two different circles of data.  There is the reddit circle and the outside community circle.  We can create a third circle by speculating roughly what the outside community circle is like, although we can't know how large that circle is compared to reddit and it won't be 100% accurate.  So we can very easily assume that they will vote mostly female.  We can assume that Fates/Awakening units will have high representation outside of reddit.  We can assume that Hector will do better than Ephraim outside of Reddit.  We can assume Chrom would go up.  We can assume Celica and Alm will both do quite well.  Technically you can create other circles if you're familiar with how the JP rank heroes compared to how the ENG communities do.

If you take the Speculation circle and combine it with the Reddit circle you get something very close to the results we saw in the interim which we could not have possibly known.  For example we expected Alm and Celica to do well outside of reddit.  We also could see from the reddit poll that Celica was placed first.  This meant it was fairly predictable that Celica was going to end up in first.  Likewise, we could see from Reddit that Tharja was doing horribly while Camilla was doing just fine which made it quite easy to predict that Camilla was going to be much more popular than Tharja this time around (in contrast to CYL 1) which is exactly what happened.  We could see that Hector was probably going to overtake Ephraim because the reddit poll only had him at a slight advantage and it would be pretty easy to speculate that outside of Reddit Hector will have more of an advantage than Ephraim did within Reddit.  Once we see the numbers from CYL 2 we can figure out exactly how big the two circles were relative to one another.

The data is completely worthless if you don't apply any sort of logic.  Not everything can be put into some magical formula and logical fallacies are perfectly acceptable in this kind of environment.  Kind of like the stock market.

Edited by Lushen
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7 hours ago, Zangetsu said:

So we're in a consensus that Hector & Celica more or less are in 1st place right? I doubt we'll see any major changes to these polls.

Can't say for sure of course, but the chance that their lead is small enough that they could be overtaken is pretty low. Which applies to the number 2s as well, to an extent.

Edited by Cysx
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43 minutes ago, Cysx said:

Can't say for sure of course, but the chance that their lead is small enough that they could be overtaken is pretty low. Which applies to the numbers 2 as well, to an extent.

That extent being if being if InSyst is generous enough to throw Marth a bone. Of course ideally speaking, it would be nice to if they rewarded the 3rd place as well.

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12 hours ago, Zangetsu said:

Of course ideally speaking, it would be nice to if they rewarded the 3rd place as well.

Yes, please!

Anyway, if we're also discussing CYL kits here, I predict one of the winning males will have Fierce Breath. Probably Hector, since it fits his character a little better (and Ephraim will probably be on a horse), though it would be hilarious if he kept Distant Counter (speaking of which, his weapon probably comes with DC built in).

For the females' side, I think Celica could potentially get Swift Breath (assuming she uses Beloved Zofia), though I think it would fit Eirika better since her base form fits the "weak, yet fast" archetype (assuming she doesn't get on a horse). Granted, who knows if we'll get two Breaths at once? Especially since we're most likely going to get two new Ikes with them instead.

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On 1/30/2018 at 11:34 AM, Lau said:

But the FEH sub Reddit  is just a small portion of the community, so I wouldn't put too much stock in that.

Same goes for here too.

Yup facts but yeah I hope next Monday the results are done since they have to go through lots of vote checks and erasing improper votes.

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