The Most Complex/Convoluted Plan in the Series

[NekoKnight]

22 hours ago, Hawkwing said:

It had the larger goal of uniting the continent through war, and potentially eliminating or at least downplaying the flaws of the each nation. I.E. If Rigel won, they would need compassion in order to successfully rule over Zofia. If Zofia won, they would have proven Rigels strength, but they would need to learn diligence and discipline in order to keep the Rigelians from rebelling. He unites the continent, and forces both sides to give up their flaws in order to remain united.

There is no guarantee that either side winning the war would result in a long lasting unification of the continent. The winners might oppress the losers, or the winners might go home after collecting their compensation. The only reason the unification works (and even then it's a little shaky to accept that two countries of contrasting values can suddenly become one without a lot of adaption) because Alm is the hero of Zofia and the royal heir of Rigel. Rudolf would have to be a powerful fortune teller to have predicted that those exact circumstances that allowed Alm to become that person would happen.

There are a number of ways that he could have made the plan simpler. For starters, he could have talked to Alm and Celica about who they are and what needs to happen. I don't see a war where anything could happen would be a sounder plan to ensuring long term peace.
 

6 hours ago, Augestein said:

It worked exactly as he planed. 

Azura's aren't really convoluted in my eyes, just really stupid and/or naive. To the point that I'd say her character is horrible IMO. But...

Everything going exactly as planned despite the plethora of ways it could fail doesn't make it a smart one. Azura's plan is a good one by that standard. Everything worked out.

[Augestein]

2 hours ago, NekoKnight said:

There is no guarantee that either side winning the war would result in a long lasting unification of the continent. The winners might oppress the losers, or the winners might go home after collecting their compensation. The only reason the unification works (and even then it's a little shaky to accept that two countries of contrasting values can suddenly become one without a lot of adaption) because Alm is the hero of Zofia and the royal heir of Rigel. Rudolf would have to be a powerful fortune teller to have predicted that those exact circumstances that allowed Alm to become that person would happen.

There are a number of ways that he could have made the plan simpler. For starters, he could have talked to Alm and Celica about who they are and what needs to happen. I don't see a war where anything could happen would be a sounder plan to ensuring long term peace.
 

Everything going exactly as planned despite the plethora of ways it could fail doesn't make it a smart one. Azura's plan is a good one by that standard. Everything worked out.

The only way that Rudolf's plan can actually fail is if Alm dies really. Considering that's the only real plan to defeat Duma, it isn't convoluted. Because there aren't multiple people that can just pick up the Falchion and use it. The war that happens is already fueled by people anyways. Using it to ensure that Alm develops the skills and is hidden away from the Duma assassins until he's old enough to defend himself is actually smart. As they needed a hero as soon as Alm was old enough to fight. Any sooner and he could be killed. 000

 

In the case of Azura's plan, they *don't* work out well because they result in:

1) 2 Siblings dying when you choose any route that isn't Revelations

2) They don't actually defeat Anankos

3) No one else is aware of Anankos so they can't actually do much about him.

4) All of her plans that aren't Rev result in the other side being more or less dismantled which helps Anankos' plan. 

5) It's needlessly secretive when there's no advantage to being secretive. Especially when she can drag people to Valla like she does in Rev. 

[Rapier]

On 02/03/2018 at 2:20 PM, Augestein said:

Sephiran's takes the cake. As literally his requires so much luck that it's unbelievably stupid.

Not so much.

Crimea and Daein had opposite ideologies that put them as rivals. They skirmished for border control ocasionally, although they never developed into a full-blown war. There is still potential for a conflict between both nations and all it needs is a push in the right direction, which eventually happened due to Ashnard being singled as the heir to the throne after his siblings conveniently died by a Blood Pact. This isn't impossible to accomplish - all Sephiran needed was to back up the ideal warmonger for the throne, which is what he did.

The hawk and raven tribes constantly bicker among themselves, with Naesala wishing he'd get his hold on Tibarn's lands, not to mention he was indirectly serving under Begnion because of the Blood Pact (so he could be ordered to start a war, if Begnion wanted). Conflicts between the hawk and raven tribes were common, and it wouldn't be particularly hard to cause a war between them.

Gallia shows dissent toward the prejudice commited by Begnion and Daein against the laguz. They're pretty much skeptical and even hostile to other beorc countries that are not as friendly and inclusive as Crimea (so, pretty much all of them). The laguz are also genetically hotblooded and very easily prone to violence (which is mentioned in FE10, if not in FE9), so even if Caineghis tried to solve conflicts through diplomacy, a little provocation would be enough to bring them into war (which is basically what happened in Part 3 of Radiant Dawn). Again, not particularly hard.

The hardest to bring to a war would be Goldoa, actually.

 

-----------------

The most convoluted and stupid plan imo would be Azura trying to place Gooron on the throne. There were a billion simpler ways to reveal Gooron without all the sacrifices and bloodshed from Conquest, so their excuse doesn't fit.

Robin's plan to evade being possessed by Grima also fits. He/she also needed convenient future knowledge to predict what Validar's plan was so he/she could send Basilio to fake his death (which included fighting Valhart, a hard feat that could've brought his death just as easily) and take the real orb with him, replacing it on the Fire Emblem with a fake one.

As for the most complex one, I'd say Manfroy's is. He needed to manipulate plenty of people (both directly and indirectly), de-stabilize the entire continent to leave it easy for the Grannvale Empire to dominate later and find one person in millions (who was currently in hiding) to succeed with his plan. Had Deirdre or Alvis died of a cold, fever or whatever, his plans would never have come to fruition.

Edited March 4, 2018 by Rapier

[AlphaZero]

24 minutes ago, Augestein said:

The only way that Rudolf's plan can actually fail is if Alm dies really. Considering that's the only real plan to defeat Duma, it isn't convoluted. Because there aren't multiple people that can just pick up the Falchion and use it. The war that happens is already fueled by people anyways. Using it to ensure that Alm develops the skills and is hidden away from the Duma assassins until he's old enough to defend himself is actually smart. As they needed a hero as soon as Alm was old enough to fight. Any sooner and he could be killed. 000

 

In the case of Azura's plan, they *don't* work out well because they result in:

1) 2 Siblings dying when you choose any route that isn't Revelations

2) They don't actually defeat Anankos

3) No one else is aware of Anankos so they can't actually do much about him.

4) All of her plans that aren't Rev result in the other side being more or less dismantled which helps Anankos' plan. 

5) It's needlessly secretive when there's no advantage to being secretive. Especially when she can drag people to Valla like she does in Rev. 

That is a huge if and is one of the biggest reasons of why Rudolf's plan could've failed. There are so many underlying facters that could have botched the plan. Alm could've easily died during this time of famine, roaming monsters, and war. Mycen's pretty old. What if he just up and died before Alm received all of his training? What if Alm died fighting for Zofia? I know some people think that Rudolf staged a suicide war solely for Alm, but half of Alm's adversaries don't care about this plan. Slayde almost killed him when he was like 10. Berkut could've killed him, Desaix could've killed him, Those witches and Cantors could've killed him. Thank god for that dumb Macguffin Celica gave him, otherwise Alm's entire army would be dead via Nuibaba's dumb Macguffin. The Draco zombies coulld've killed him. Swole shield!Merc could've killed him.

If this game's conflict was realistic, Alm would most certainly be dead right now. Alm is a literal green recruit turned leader to a languishing resistance, he should have no chance against a country that has spent the last few centuries militarizing for who knows what. But the writers made it so Alm beats everybody he fights, regardless of how unmatched he is because this story was made in the 90s when nobody gave a damn about videogame stories. Rudolf's plan also hinges upon Alm striking a bond with his Zofian counterpart, who also could've easily died in many scenarios. Hell, I haven't even talked about how immoral Rudolf's plan is, inciting a war that would kill thousands of people across both sides, break a sacred pact that, upon its destruction, would cause famine and revive monsters across the continent, and increase the activities of banditry across the continent.

Rudolf's plan is just as bad as Azura's both plans work out in the end despite their innate stupidity and impracticality. Rudolf has negative thiings to gain from being secretive, especially since he has an army of almost unwavering loyalty under him. You literally see him fighting Mila with an army behind him, Why couldn't he just do the same for Duma? If his most loyal generals are privy to his plan and are willing to die for it, then They most likely won't have a problem waging war on a cult of soulless blue people for the sake of their king. How is this plan anything but convoluted? This isn't some point A-to-point B plan, it literally takes 17 years of preparation affects the balance of an entire continent. But it's all good because it worked out in the end right? I think that there are a lot of positives in SoV, but let's not pretend that Rudolf's plan is some sort of masterpiece.

[Augestein]

1 minute ago, AlphaZero said:

That is a huge if and is one of the biggest reasons of why Rudolf's plan could've failed. There are so many underlying facters that could have botched the plan. Alm could've easily died during this time of famine, roaming monsters, and war. Mycen's pretty old. What if he just up and died before Alm received all of his training? What if Alm died fighting for Zofia? I know some people think that Rudolf staged a suicide war solely for Alm, but half of Alm's adversaries don't care about this plan. Slayde almost killed him when he was like 10. Berkut could've killed him, Desaix could've killed him, Those witches and Cantors could've killed him. Thank god for that dumb Macguffin Celica gave him, otherwise Alm's entire army would be dead via Nuibaba's dumb Macguffin. The Draco zombies coulld've killed him. Swole shield!Merc could've killed him.

If this game's conflict was realistic, Alm would most certainly be dead right now. Alm is a literal green recruit turned leader to a languishing resistance, he should have no chance against a country that has spent the last few centuries militarizing for who knows what. But the writers made it so Alm beats everybody he fights, regardless of how unmatched he is because this story was made in the 90s when nobody gave a damn about videogame stories. Rudolf's plan also hinges upon Alm striking a bond with his Zofian counterpart, who also could've easily died in many scenarios. Hell, I haven't even talked about how immoral Rudolf's plan is, inciting a war that would kill thousands of people across both sides, break a sacred pact that, upon its destruction, would cause famine and revive monsters across the continent, and increase the activities of banditry across the continent.

Rudolf's plan is just as bad as Azura's both plans work out in the end despite their innate stupidity and impracticality. Rudolf has negative thiings to gain from being secretive, especially since he has an army of almost unwavering loyalty under him. You literally see him fighting Mila with an army behind him, Why couldn't he just do the same for Duma? If his most loyal generals are privy to his plan and are willing to die for it, then They most likely won't have a problem waging war on a cult of soulless blue people for the sake of their king. How is this plan anything but convoluted? This isn't some point A-to-point B plan, it literally takes 17 years of preparation affects the balance of an entire continent. But it's all good because it worked out in the end right? I think that there are a lot of positives in SoV, but let's not pretend that Rudolf's plan is some sort of masterpiece.

Sure. However, it's not convoluted. It's actually really simple. Don't let Alm die. Let him get some experience as a commander and and a warrior. Hide him from Duma, and have him fight when he's old enough. The biggest issue here is quite literally that Alm can die. It's not complicated, it's just not foolproof. The plan had already gone of the hinges when Celica had to be moved because of this. So at this point, you can basically say that this plan that was devised is a contingency plan. A bad one, but considering that the first one flopped, it's easy to see how it flew off rails. 

What you've said are reason that the plan isn't a great one. It's not hard to follow though. 

Rudolf's plan is much less bad than Azura's. For starters, Azura has no plan at the start of the game. And both of her plans require that she does exactly what the villain wants around 2/3 of the time. Conquest is especially bad because she takes Corrin to Valla and doesn't try to explain what exactly this is, and her plan is basically to pray that Corrin has enough influence to convince his/her siblings that Garon and evil, and that Garon doesn't just raze the entire castle, and thus the throne to the floor. The worst part is that she has the ability to be clear, by doing things like showing EVERYONE the crystal ball, but just doesn't. She gives it to Leo in Birthright, and shows it to Corrin in Conquest. That's why I'd say hers is the worst, because there's no reason that she doesn't have any of the Hoshidan siblings knowing this BEFORE the start of the game. 

12 minutes ago, Rapier said:

Not so much.

Crimea and Daein had opposite ideologies that put them as rivals. They skirmished for border control ocasionally, although they never developed into a full-blown war. There is still potential for a conflict between both nations and all it needs is a push in the right direction, which eventually happened due to Ashnard being singled as the heir to the throne after his siblings conveniently died by a Blood Pact. This isn't impossible to accomplish - all Sephiran needed was to back up the ideal warmonger for the throne, which is what he did.

The hawk and raven tribes constantly bicker among themselves, with Naesala wishing he'd get his hold on Tibarn's lands, not to mention he was indirectly serving under Begnion because of the Blood Pact (so he could be ordered to start a war, if Begnion wanted). Conflicts between the hawk and raven tribes were common, and it wouldn't be particularly hard to cause a war between them.

Gallia shows dissent toward the prejudice commited by Begnion and Daein against the laguz. They're pretty much skeptical and even hostile to other beorc countries that are not as friendly and inclusive as Crimea (so, pretty much all of them). The laguz are also genetically hotblooded and very easily prone to violence (which is mentioned in FE10, if not in FE9), so even if Caineghis tried to solve conflicts through diplomacy, a little provocation would be enough to bring them into war (which is basically what happened in Part 3 of Radiant Dawn). Again, not particularly hard.

The hardest to bring to a war would be Goldoa, actually.

 

-----------------

The most convoluted and stupid plan imo would be Azura trying to place Gooron on the throne. There were a billion simpler ways to reveal Gooron without all the sacrifices and bloodshed from Conquest, so their excuse doesn't fit.

Robin's plan to evade being possessed by Grima also fits. He/she also needed convenient future knowledge to predict what Validar's plan was so he/she could send Basilio to fake his death (which included fighting Valhart, a hard feat that could've brought his death just as easily) and take the real orb with him, replacing it on the Fire Emblem with a fake one.

As for the most complex one, I'd say Manfroy's is. He needed to manipulate plenty of people (both directly and indirectly), de-stabilize the entire continent to leave it easy for the Grannvale Empire to dominate later and find one person in millions (who was currently in hiding) to succeed with his plan. Had Deirdre or Alvis died of a cold, fever or whatever, his plans would never have come to fruition.

Requires 

1) Ashnard doesn't destroy Crimea completely. 

2) Somehow gets Gallia involved despite the fact that they apparently won't even though  they are supposedly allies with Crimea, and had Elincia died, the plan to get them involved dies too.  

3) Kilvas and Phoenicis don't get along too well, but they don't actually fight much either. 

4) Daein has no reason to fight Begnion. 

5) Goldoa WON'T fight. 

If Manfroy's is complicated for "get proper bloodlines to mingle" is more complicated than the above, I don't know what to say. 

Robin knowing future events isn't that bad. Lucina told him/her.

People are confusing "unlikely to succeed" with "convoluted." 

[Hawkwing]

4 hours ago, NekoKnight said:

There is no guarantee that either side winning the war would result in a long lasting unification of the continent. The winners might oppress the losers, or the winners might go home after collecting their compensation. The only reason the unification works (and even then it's a little shaky to accept that two countries of contrasting values can suddenly become one without a lot of adaption) because Alm is the hero of Zofia and the royal heir of Rigel. Rudolf would have to be a powerful fortune teller to have predicted that those exact circumstances that allowed Alm to become that person would happen.

There are a number of ways that he could have made the plan simpler. For starters, he could have talked to Alm and Celica about who they are and what needs to happen. I don't see a war where anything could happen would be a sounder plan to ensuring long term peace.

That's why Rudolf intentionally escalated the conflict into a total war, so that either side had to conquer the other in order to win. And if the other side oppressed the looser, then either nation would rebel (Zofia rebelling against Desaix set of the main plot, while a people like Rigel wouldn't go down without a fight). Heck, it plainly states in the epilogue that Alm and Celica had to deal with rebellions and bandits even have the continent is united. That, and Rigel firmly believes that hardship builds character, and since war is hell...

Rudolf sent Alm with Mycen to protect him from the Duma Faithful, as it's not hard to imagine that the more fanatical members would be willing to kill a child to protect Duma, and I don't see how he could have successfully communicated with Alm himself without raising suspicion. I can see him secretly communicating with Mycen, however. As for Celica, all Rudolf knew was that she was born at a similar time that Alm was. How could he have communicated with her or have integrated her into his plan?

As for Alm surviving, it isn't the "be all, end all" of his plan. It's simply a very risky but very rewarding gamble:

If Alm survives, then he has the ability to kill Duma. It doesn't matter if he's just a normal soldier or the leader of the Deliverance, or even if he didn't join at all. All Alm needs to do is wield Falchion and slay Duma.  Part of the reason Rudolf entrusted Alm with Mycen (besides for his safety) is the hope that he can be formed into a trained fighter and strong leader.

If Alm dies then either:

A. Duma survives, and delves deeper into madness, but considering he's mostly locked away in his tower, it's possible that the populace just deals with his shenanigans until another dragon/god slaying weapon/hero shows up.

OR

B. Rudolf takes the Falchion and kills Duma himself (he's show wielding it earlier in the story), betraying his country in the eyes of the people, and accepting the consequences (or allowing himself to be killed after slaying Duma, wiping himself out of the picture then and there). Rudolf would keep Berkut out of of the loop so the latter wouldn't be accused of conspiracy, and the crown would be passed onto his nephew. (On a side note, he could have integrated Berkut into the plan more smoothly, so that the shock of having another heir wouldn't of hit his nephew so hard.)

[Interdimensional Observer]

On 3/2/2018 at 12:20 PM, Augestein said:

Sephiran's takes the cake. As literally his requires so much luck that it's unbelievably stupid.

In practice, there was a lot of luck involved in it- Rafiel and Kurthnaga were beyond his control but extremely helpful. But I don't think he actually meant to play it out that way, he doesn't egotistically take responsibility for it like that. All he wanted was to break the seal on the Medallion, which needed chaos. Getting Goldoa involved- well the game doesn't make it clear whether having actual representation from all intelligent species was absolutely necessary or not. 

The Senate was a plan B when Ashnard, who he apparently lost some measure of hope in after he lost the Medallion it seems, failed to break the seal. When Ashnard tried again in 425, Sephiran accepted the chance it presented. Sephiran didn't actually scheme that heavily, he has only been active for 20 years.

As a third point, he felt that Ashera, who in about 244 years from the Serenes Massacre would have awoken anyhow. He believed Ashera would kill everyone whenever she awoke, out of mercy for the suffering world, he wanted to do it sooner than that. And as long as Dheginsea the optimist and Yune didn't persuade Ashera otherwise, Ashera's trust in Lehran's word could have possibly persuaded her then and there to kill everyone. Ashera Yune says also got colder and more aloof in her sleep, she never consults with Yune after all when she awakes, she just trusts what Lehran says without confirming what broke the seal.

 

On 3/4/2018 at 2:22 AM, Augestein said:

Sephiran gets the cake, because he goes way out of his way to ensure that his plan is needlessly more difficult than it has any right to be. Raising people to be counterproductive to his own plans because....? 

As pointed out before, Sephiran is internally conflicted. He is driven to the depths of despair, but he doesn't love what he has to do. He does not relish in doing evil like Manfroy or Validar. He is not like Lyon- magically corrupted or possessed, Sephiran is just humanly hesitant. Sephiran is in sense irrational, but rather this form of irrationality over degenerate dragon or a thousand others.

As for Sanaki, she's his descendant, and he never got to raise his own daughter centuries ago. Give him a break, he probably wanted to be a dad and finally had the chance. He was going to kill her, but it was in her best interest- he didn't want her like everyone else to suffer. But since he can't get his judgement right away, he might as well have her enjoy the she has time as much as she can in this suffering-filled world before that happens. I don't think he could have bore the thought of personally killing her.

 

On 3/4/2018 at 1:10 PM, Augestein said:

Requires 

1) Ashnard doesn't destroy Crimea completely. 

2) Somehow gets Gallia involved despite the fact that they apparently won't even though  they are supposedly allies with Crimea, and had Elincia died, the plan to get them involved dies too.  

3) Kilvas and Phoenicis don't get along too well, but they don't actually fight much either. 

4) Daein has no reason to fight Begnion. 

5) Goldoa WON'T fight.

1) Ashnard subjugates the country and tries initially to stamp out Elincia, but her going to Begnion brings Begnion into the fray. Which means more chaos, and more chaos means the dark god who can bring forth his Social Darwinian world will come about sooner. This can explain his willingness to let Daein go, it buys time for more chaos generation and the fighting still makes some. Crimea also puts him in the perfect position to strike at Gallia.

2) Why would the plan to involve Gallia in the war die if Elincia dies? Daein hates Laguz, period. Daein was founded by a Laguz bigot named Senator Hengist. Whose new kingdom made one of its first objectives only 5 years after coming into existence was an invasion of Gallia, which Crimea and Begnion refused to let them do. And Daein was willing to fight Crimea for the right to invade Gallia and it took them another 5 years to realize it wasn't worth it.

As for Gallia's refusal to enter the war, here are some reasons why:

Caineghis:
“In my heart of hearts, I would like to take guardianship of Princess Elincia and assist in the rebuilding of Crimea. However, anti-beorc sentiment is running high here in Gallia. If we were to offer safe harbor to Elincia, I feel many of our elder statesmen would protest. They would say that we are giving Daein an ideal excuse to attack.”

Giffca
Nothing to be done about that. Every one of the older retainers has memories of laguz subordination. Even the king. If Princess Elincia were not King Ramon's orphan, I doubt he would be willing to aid her.

Dheginhansea
And you, king of lions? What will you do about your home of Gallia? Now that you know Daein's feint toward Gallia is merely another move in his game of war, how will you act?

Caineghis
They've made no formal declaration of war.Until they do, we watch and wait.

Tibarn
If it's the first step towards eradicating all human scum, Phoenicis will help you destroy Daein.

Caineghis
No. Unless this becomes a true war among all nations, I want you to stay your hand. As long as Gallia is protected by the sea of trees, we can stave off Daein's attacks.
 

The memories line sounds strange when the actual timeline is consulted since 645 is the year of Daein's invasion and Gallia became officially independent back in 400. The Recollections say at most the Beasts live on average to be 204 years old. 

3) Fair enough.

4) Ashnard does as my first point here makes clear. Sephiran pinned his Daein hopes specifically on Ashnard. Ashnard wants chaos and to break the seal on Lehran's Medallion. I think Soren, who I trust here, outlined exactly what Ashnard in Chapter 25 PoR (the Birds aren't in the planning, but it isn't hard to imagine them entering the war- look at what Tibarn said in the Caineghis stuff, and for Naesala- well he fights with Daein for a bit being an opportunist, and the Blood Pact could force him to join Begnion later):

Soren
King Goldoa said that a conflict which engulfs the entire continent would free the dark god from the medallion. Let us assume that the war would have such an effect on the medallion no matter where it was...or who possessed it. And let's also assume that the king of Daein thinks this as well. I can hear him now..."Where is the tinder for the blaze I need?" The answer to this question proved to be an easy one. Yet he had to find a way
to test his theory...So, he attacked neighboring Crimea. It had to be Crimea. Begnion was too big, too powerful. Daein would have lost. Crimea, however, is a country known more for its scholarship than its military strength. Daein probably felt that a surprise invasion would let them win while taking minimal casualties themselves. And they were right. Crimea was easy prey.

Elincia
...

Soren
King Ramon was also friendly toward laguz...I imagine that this, too, influenced Daein's decision. If things went well, the conflict would be enough to engulf Crimea's ally, Gallia, and the fires would spread. First Crimea, then Gallia...And eventually Begnion as well. Daein's power would increase, and strife and discord would spread across the land, eventually reaching the lost medallion.

Why Begnion would enter is not clear, but they do have some racists and might want to kill Laguz- like those pestering Hawks. Or they could be interested in stopping Daein's ambitions thinking they'd overshadow them. It wouldn't be hard to Ashnard to get Begnion in. 

5)According to RD, Dheg, by virtue of Almedha's tragic union with Ashnard, which Sephiran played no part it, Goldoa almost did:

Nasir: Shortly after you left Goldoa, you met Ashnard in Daein and were united with him. However, your union begat a chain of tragedies. Did you know that the red dragon platoon which went in search of you was captured and turned into Feral Ones by King Ashnard?
Almedha: I-I had no idea.
Nasir: Ashnard needed Goldoa to get involved in his war. That’s why he did everything in his power to provoke King Dheginsea. Most of you have never fought in a war, but even more than other laguz, the dragon tribe loses control once they taste battle.
Kurthnaga: Oh…
Nasir: Near the end of the war, we found out that Prince Rajaion could not be saved. I thought the king would surely go on a rampage. At the time, we had no idea that Lady Almedha was still alive. The king thought he’d lost not only dragon soldiers but also his children.
Ena: …
Nasir: If the war had ended any later… Had Ike not killed Ashnard… Goldoa would have joined the war. And we would have started killing. We would have destroyed the Daein army, its coconspirators, everyone. We would not have stopped until the continent was ashes. Then the spirit of chaos would have spread across Tellius, awakening the goddess and destroying the dragon tribe. That was the danger we faced in the Mad King’s War.
Kurthnaga: …
Ena: But Ashnard was defeated. And Rajaion regained his sanity thanks to the songs of the heron clan.
Almedha: …Sniff… Bwuah… Sniff…
Nasir: We escaped annihilation once. We took Prince Rajaion’s body back to Goldoa. And the king did not shed a tear, nor fly into a rage. He endured his loss by himself. He endured for the sake of his last child, and for the sake of his people. Goldoa remained neutral.

Damn the Dragon Laguz are strong! By themselves they could broken the seal. (Though they're probably only as strong as the Manaketes in other games.)

By the way, the official timeline mentions a Tellius Continental War- which likely almost broke the seal at 53 years of fighting from the Daein and Kilvas invasions to the peace treaty. 425 was the same year Daein and Crimea agreed to a truce after 5 years of fighting. That this war exists in the records gives Sephiran in his despair hope that he can doom all.

425: Begnion Empire’s invasion
Feeling that their dominance has started to fade, the Begnion Empire, using the Goddess’s name, sent troops to begin an invasion to restore their dominance of the continent.

The invasion started with new powers Daein and Kilvas.

428: Kilvas’ surrender
Kilvas refused Phoenicis’ reinforcements and surrendered to Begnion.

Also the Daein troops, concentrated at the capital of Nevassa, continued the resistance.

432: Tellius continental war
Believing Begnion’s dominance over the continent would not bode well, Crimea decided to ally with Daein, and declared war against Begnion.

Begnion’s battle with Crimea and Daein erupted.

Although Begnion’s might was unshaken, but due to the involvement of the Laguz of Gallia, Phoenicis and Kilvas, the war was prolonged and continued for numerous decades.

470: Formation of Serenes
The citizens of Serenes protested against Begnion’s war, which was done in name of the Goddess.

Because they doubted the existence of the Apostle, they ended up angering the senate and became at opposing sides with them.

Finally, the citizens of Serenes established their own independent country, although the battle of the validity of the Apostle never ended.

478: Treaty of Sarasa, Kingdoms of Daein, Kilvas and Serenes established
The war entered a seemingly neverending state. Begnion, worried about their great losses, finally decided to find a way to stop the war.

In the end, by the intervention of Goldoa, peace talks were held within the Sarasa region of Goldoa.

Begnion signed a treaty of peace, with the conditions that they had to return their conquered lands to Daein and Kilvas and recognise them as official countries.

 

 

 

I love a good bit of Tellius talk.