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Who will come back and who will get cut?


Gregster101
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It's hard to speculate until we know more about the game. If it's more port than new game, I think it's likely no one will be cut. But to actually say something here, let's assume this is fully new and some characters have to go.

First, anyone who made the jump from Brawl to Smash 4 I'm going to assume is a lock. So, the rest:

  • Mewtwo: Very likely staying. Clearly a fan favorite, and more popular in Smash 4 than in Melee.
  • Roy: Might not make the base roster, but could come back down the line.
  • Dr. Mario: I think it's more likely than not that he'll be back, but it wouldn't surprise me too much if he wasn't.
  • Lucas: Same situation as Roy.
  • Villager: Staying.
  • Mega Man: Staying.
  • Wii Fit Trainer: Probably staying. I'm sure this won't be a popular opinion, but WFT perfectly represents the Wii era, which was a big deal for Nintendo. She also adds more female representation, which I suspect was a goal for Smash 4.
  • Rosalina & Luma: Probably staying.
  • Little Mac: Probably staying.
  • Charizard: Staying.
  • Greninja: Hm...tough one. I'd bet on staying, but if someone has to go I could see this one being low priority for base roster.
  • Mii Fighters: I could see these being cut. Miis aren't much of a thing anymore, and they didn't seem too popular to use.
  • Palutena: Staying.
  • Dark Pit: Same as Roy/Lucas.
  • Pac-Man: Staying.
  • Lucina: I think she has a good shot at staying, but a cut wouldn't surprise me too much.
  • Robin: Staying.
  • Shulk: Staying.
  • Bowser Jr.: Probably staying.
  • Duck Hunt: Staying.
  • Ryu: Probably staying.
  • Cloud: The most likely cut imo. It's clear that it was tough to get him in at all, though a return later in the game's life is highly likely.
  • Corrin: The most likely cut of the FE characters imo.
  • Bayonetta: Staying. I've seen speculation that Bayonetta will get cut. This is ridiculous. She was chosen by the players, Nintendo is publishing her games and Bayonetta 3 is on the way. She's a lock.

So just for simplicity's sake, a tier list of who I think is most likely to stay:

Spoiler

Staying

  • Villager
  • Mega Man
  • Charizard
  • Palutena
  • Pac-Man
  • Robin
  • Shulk
  • Duck Hunt
  • Bayonetta

Probably staying

  • Mewtwo
  • Wii Fit Trainer
  • Rosalina & Luma
  • Little Mac
  • Bowser Jr.
  • Ryu

Midway possibilities

  • Dr. Mario
  • Lucina
  • Greninja

Potential cuts (but could return as DLC, free or paid)

  • Roy
  • Lucas
  • Mii Fighters (if these get cut, I don't think they're coming back at all)
  • Dark Pit
  • Cloud
  • Corrin

 

And for veterans who weren't in Smash 4:

  • Ice Climbers: They're coming back.
  • Pichu: Not in the base game, but I could see it returning as free DLC if the game gets support for a long time.
  • Snake: Gone for good.
  • Wolf: Same as Pichu, but more likely. If the game is more port than new, I think he'll return either base game or very soon down the line.
  • Pokemon Trainer/Squirtle/Ivysaur: Unfortunately, I don't see any of these coming back. Maybe the Mons themselves could come back as DLC, but I don't think they'd want that much gen 1 Pokemon favoritism.

I think that covers everyone.

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3 minutes ago, Anacybele said:

Yeah, and like I said in that very post, she still looks sexualized there. And you just answered your own question. ZSS isn't as sexualized.

But WHY does it matter if she's sexualized? It's significantly less than in her actual games yet they still managed to keep her faithful. And yeah, ZSS isn't as sexualized but the whole point of my side of the argument is that it doesn't matter if a character is sexualized. I mean, it'll matter if it's too much but no character in Smash 4 falls into that, not even Bayo.

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3 minutes ago, Armagon said:

But WHY does it matter if she's sexualized? It's significantly less than in her actual games yet they still managed to keep her faithful. And yeah, ZSS isn't as sexualized but the whole point of my side of the argument is that it doesn't matter if a character is sexualized. I mean, it'll matter if it's too much but no character in Smash 4 falls into that, not even Bayo.

Sigh... Never mind. I'm just going to end up repeating things I already said if I answer your question.

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I should point out that clones don't "take up" a character slot. They are added after the roster is finalized, since they don't take much effort to add. The only characters they can "steal" from are fellow clones.

So... my speculation. I don't see many cuts happening if any, personally.

  • Anybody who has been in two consecutive Smash games is safe. Ice Climbers are the only ones to ever get cut after that, and that was purely for technical reasons that are no longer applicable so they're coming back.
  • Dr. Mario is a low-effort clone. That means he's incredibly easy to add, since he's just Mario with slightly different properties and one unique attack. He's got an odd bit of a fanbase, so he'll probably stay.
  • Mewtwo is almost certainly returning. There's a reason it was the first DLC character shown off, to celebrate its big return.
  • Roy is a bit iffy. Ironically, being slightly de-cloned puts him into that same dangerous territory that got Lucas and Wolf cut; being enough of a clone to not be worthwhile, but not enough of a clone to be zero-effort. That being said, he's pretty popular among Smash fans so I see him getting in as DLC at the very least.
  • Lucas will probably return. MOTHER has had a bit of a resurgence lately, with EarthBound's VC release and MOTHER 1 finally getting localized, so I can see them letting MOTHER have two slots from the start instead of DLC.
  • Villager is a lock. No way they're cutting Animal Crossing.
  • Wii Fit Trainer is not very notable, but Sakurai doesn't like to cut unique movesets and there are few words more apt for her than "unique".
  • Little Mac is probably safe. Even if his franchise is dormant, he's got a unique moveset and Sakurai seemed pretty enthusiastic about his inclusion.
  • Rosalina is safe.
  • Greninja is to Smash 5 what Lucario is to Smash 4; people are going to speculate on its removal due to no longer being relevant, but it'll be revealed pretty early on.
  • Palutena is safe because she's Sakurai's waifu. Dark Pit is also probably safe, though perhaps lower-priority than other clones.
  • Robin is safe. Sakurai likes Fire Emblem, and he offers a unique moveset. Lucina is definitely going to appear too; she's popular enough that her removal would cause an uproar. She MIGHT be demoted to Marth costume, but Sakurai doesn't like to do that. If even Dr. Mario got to keep his separate slot, Lucina is likely to do the same.
  • Shulk is staying. In fact, I expect more Xenoblade-related content what with X and 2 coming out.
  • Bowser Jr. is probably staying. There's little reason to cut him. The only obstacle might be the effort in making all seven Koopalings again.
  • Duck Hunt is staying. They're a Nintendo icon.
  • Corrin could possibly disappear. I'd imagine the DLC newcomers are lower-priority for returning, and he was added to promote Fates. On the other hand, he has a unique and creative moveset and Roy returned, so...
  • The Mii Fighters might be gone. Miis are an afterthought on the Switch compared to the Wii and Wii U, so unless a future update makes the Mii Maker more prominent or Smash 5 comes with its own built-in Mii Maker, they stand a good chance of disappearing.
  • Third-party characters are inherently iffy due to rights issues. Sonic's a lock, as is Bayonetta; they're not gonna cut the ballot winner of all people. Mega Man and Pac-Man are likely; the former's even got a new game coming out and the latter is pretty likely even if Namco isn't working on Smash 5. Ryu and Cloud are more dubious; not only do they have a poorer association with Nintendo, they're DLC. With how half-assed his appearance in Smash 4 is, I nominate Cloud as the most likely roster cut.

And since everybody's talking about the return of absentee fighters...

  • Young Link isn't returning. He's been formally succeeded by Toon Link.
  • Pichu is extremely unlikely as well. It was just added as a joke back in Melee, and they don't seem too keen on joke picks anymore.
  • Squirtle and Ivysaur are unlikely, even divorced from Pokemon Trainer. They have unique movesets, but Pokemon is already bloated with character choices and I don't see them continuing to linger on Generation I when there's so many others competing for spots.
  • Wolf honestly seems like a shoe-in. He was pretty popular in Brawl and his removal from 4 was not received very well. He might be DLC, though.
  • Snake is unlikely due to Konami now being run by sentient pachinko machines. A damn shame, he's my most desired returnee.
Edited by Anomalocaris
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So I have a theory of sorts. 3rd party reps. Capcom had 2 in smash 4 with Ryu and Mega-man, Sega had 2 with Sonic and Bayonetta. Square Enix only has 1 with Cloud, and Bandai Namco had 1 with Pac-man. Now I think if they choose to keep all of those in then I think Square Enix and Bandai Namco will want to have the same amount of reps.

For Square Enix if they keep Cloud in (promote FF7 remake), then I can see 1/5 other characters being added, Noctis to further promote FFXV and if the leak about it being on the switch in the next 2 years is true (which is countering developer statements) it would be promotion material, FFXVI protag (going off that same leak that had FFXVI in the list), Someone from Octopath (I'd say Olberic or Primrose cause the demo lets us know them some but anyone really. Primrose I'd want because unique moveset potnetial but IDK if they would get her in as she in a dancer and does show quite a lot of skin, Bayonetta at least normally is covered and the alteration for her to lose some of her outfit instead of all was a fit for this game but Primrose would show more skin than Bayonetta or Zero Suit Samus so I don't know, and Olberic would be viewed as a generic swordsmen by the people who complain about too many swords), Sora (once again that leak which has Kingdom Hearts 3 in it), and possibly Tiz or Agnes, the reason for this is again the leak I've mentioned which has Bravely Third on it.

Now for Bandai Namco I'm thinking Solaire, cause him getting his own amiibo is surprising, and some will say he has no shot of making it in, mostly due to violence of his game, we said similar things about Bayonetta not getting in cause she was too sexy and look what happened.

link to the leak I keep referring to: https://imgur.com/E8AltM9

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I wouldn't mind seeing the Ice Climbers come back without the duo gimmick, but I'm not particularly bent on their return either. Lucina should become a Marth variant, Dr. Mario and Dark Pit can become variants for their respective bases, and while we're at it bring Wolf back as a Fox variant.

Duck Hunt, R.O.B., Wii Fit Trainer, and Game & Watch can all be cut as far as I'm concerned. It's not that I hate them outright (I respect R.O.B.'s role in saving the entire video game industry), I just don't have a need to see them return, and I'd be perfectly happy if a character I actually like took their slot.

Edited by Lord_Brand
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2 hours ago, Florete said:

That thing is hella fake.

Oh believe me I fully think it is, stuff like Mutiny and Pokemon Chemical and Nuclear sound way too off for what they would actually release, but given it does have some games on it that later became confirmed is something to note, though I do recall reading that it gets updated so that invalidates a lot of it. It was just worth a mention is all and as I said it was a theory mostly based on a 2 rep ideal and using a source despite being fake would be amazing if true. Though as said I doubt the title names I listed prior.

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6 hours ago, EricaofRenais said:

I don't think Bayonetta will be cut since she won the fan ballot, if they cut her a lot of people will be mad all over the world since she won world wide.

She won EUROPE. I know I sound stubborn, but I refuse to acknowledge her as the winner in America as Sakurai specifically stated she made the Top 5 outside of Europe, only coming in first in the European zones. Until someone gives me exact percentage of said top 5 as well as who the other four actually were, you can't convince me…and even then I'll probably insist she still lost to whoever beat her here, depending on who that is of course.

6 hours ago, Armagon said:

Yeah, Bayonetta's a bit sexualized in Smash. You know who else is? Zero Suit Samus. Not as much as Bayo but still sexualized regardless. Should she be gone as well?

Yes please, kill them both. If ZSS absolutely MUST return(I will admit Metroid severely needs the reps), then at least return her to the mixed-character with Samus that Brawl had her as, but my best-case scenario is she goes in favor of other Metroid reps such as any of the Hunters from Prime Hunters(most popular is Sylux but I personally hope for Noxus), Dark Samus(who is probably one of the most-wanted characters to make the transition from Assist to Fighter), or even the scariest(within context) foe in all of Metroid, the SA-X(who?sob). Heck, we even have Prime 4 confirmed, so there's the excuse for more Metroid Fighters.

6 hours ago, Florete said:

Mii Fighters: I could see these being cut. Miis aren't much of a thing anymore, and they didn't seem too popular to use.

I believe a possible reason they weren't popular was that most major Sm4sh tournaments banned them because of the customizability they had - it would be easy for a player to make a Mii Fighter that was a copy of the basic Guest Miis already on file, but slightly taller for a touch of extra power or smaller for a touch of speed. Obviously, this is an absolutely ridiculous reason to ban a character, but who knows how the minds of TOs function? Looking at it that way, that would be a reason you don't run into many Mii Mains - why Main a character you'll never be allowed to play in a tournament setting? Don't answer that, it was rhetorical and I know not everyone's a tournament player. There's also the fact that they're pretty bad without Custom Moves on, and even the majority of casual players I've met hate Custom Moves(bar the Palutena players).

3 hours ago, LucarioGamer812 said:

Sora

If Nomura really was enthusiastic about Cloud in Sm4sh, I could see this happening as KH3 means Sora will be fairly relevant which apparently matters even though Duck Hunt got in(MUCH SALT DO NOT ARGUE). On the other hand, I don't recall seeing anything indicating it would be on the Switch, so that would of course be problematic.

5 hours ago, Michelaar said:

I wouldn't mind anyone returning, but I really liked Pichu in Melee so please bring him back and I will kiss your feet Nintendo.

PICHU! PICHU! PICHU! PICHU! PICHU!

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@SoulWeaver At this point of time I just remember the results video and that sated she won second in America (it did not state who won in America) and she won in Europe.  I honestly don't care who won the ballot, but I feel the winner should stay because they did win the ballot.  I get that there are some people who don't like Bayonetta, I personally voted for Issac from Golden Sun.

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'pichu being the Dan of smash is awesome (especially when he ends up as not the worst lol)

bayonetta is a girl and emphasizes it but she's not inappropriate about it in smash.

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24 minutes ago, SoulWeaver said:

She won EUROPE. I know I sound stubborn, but I refuse to acknowledge her as the winner in America as Sakurai specifically stated she made the Top 5 outside of Europe, only coming in first in the European zones. Until someone gives me exact percentage of said top 5 as well as who the other four actually were, you can't convince me…and even then I'll probably insist she still lost to whoever beat her here, depending on who that is of course.

It was stated that she was #1 in Europe, top 5 in NA, and #1 overall worldwide* (*Out of negotiable and realizable characters).

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Are we seriously having an argument of "Why Bayonetta would not be in Smash?" despite the fact she's already been in one?

I say Bayonetta has much of a chance of being cut as Inkling being in as an Assist Trophy.

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15 hours ago, Florete said:

It was stated that she was #1 in Europe, top 5 in NA, and #1 overall worldwide* (*Out of negotiable and realizable characters).

I see. As mentioned, I still stubbornly refuse to acknowledge her as the #1 pick until the unlikely day I move out of the US. My apologies if I sound rude.

15 hours ago, Jave said:

Are we seriously having an argument of "Why Bayonetta would not be in Smash?" despite the fact she's already been in one?

I say Bayonetta has much of a chance of being cut as Inkling being in as an Assist Trophy.

Yes, why? I'll explain the reason behind all such arguments while you wait btw - due in part to her game origin, her absolutely ridiculous moveset(she's basically a Melee character in Sm4sh, which is absolutely retarded), and the saltiness of Smash players who have no interest in her game and are pissed that she got in(myself included, arguing with me about this is probably a bad idea), Bayonetta has done more to divide, mess with, and overall piss off the Smash fanbase in general than pretty much any other decision made in all of Smash, quite possibly beating out Mewtwo and Roy being cut from Brawl, which pissed off a lot of people at the time. Yes, yes, not everyone is bothered by her being in, but that further proves my point of her being divisive. Because of this, there is a fair amount of people within the Smash community who would REALLY like to see Bayonetta disappear into the abyss forever, at least as far as Smash is concerned, and such people(again, myself included) are usually just fine to argue it out with people who want to see her return you dirty sellouts. My best advice is to ignore us.

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On cuts?

I agree that Cloud is the most likely cut. Even if FF7:R is on the way, it won't be out until Smash 6. Square was already pretty passé about Cloud being in Sm4sh, and Nintendo was begging them to let them have an FF character in, and it didn't seem to work out super well. 

If Cloud is cut and Square still wants a character in, Erdrick would be a better fit in Smash than Cloud. Dragon Quest(Especially 1-6, with 1-3 being the most iconic) is much more iconic as a Nintendo-related franchise than FF is across the globe(FF was associated with Sony for a lot longer outside of Japan than it was with Nintendo, with FF7, which has yet to even appear on a Nintendo platform, being the game that cemented the franchise on Sony platforms for a decade).

Erdrick is the central character of DQ1-3, and Square has been struggling for nearly 20 years now to increase DQ's visibility outside of Japan. With DQXI on the way in the west, a DQ representative in Smash would likely be the perfect advertisement strategy. Smash is 90% of the reason FE is a thing in the west(And by extension, it's like 60% of the reason FE exists at all anymore). Couldn't hurt to try it for DQ. 

Snake ain't ever coming back, and if he is, he'll be a Pachinko machine. 

Ryu and Megaman are probably back. Capcom is a lot nicer with other devs/publishers than Square is, and honestly they want all the advertisement they can get at this point. Smash is a big 'ol billboard that never goes away. Plus, they have an actual association with Nintendo, since both Megaman and Street Fighter grew to prominence on Nintendo. 

Pac-Man might. Namco probably doesn't really care what the hell happens to Pac-Man(See: Pixels). 

Bayonetta may as well be "second party" like a Pokemon at this point, and I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo had some hefty claims on her as a character behind the scenes. She's coming back. 

On to first party stuff... 

Lucina is probably going to be relegated to a Marth skin, unless this game is an "enhanced port" of Sm4sh. Roy(Semi-clone) might get a similar treatment, but he's diverged enough from Marth that he might be safe, and fan demand was and likely sill is(Judging from Heroes) high. Robin and Ike are likely safe. Corrin's probably most at risk as as far as totally unique FE characters go. 

With Pokemon... Mewtwo, Jigglypuff and Pikachu are probably the most safe. Lucario and Charizard are probably probably safe. Greninja, as the "flavor of the week" Pokemon, is probably least safe, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him back. 

Wolf might be back, but I wouldn't be surprised if he stayed gone. 

Ice Climbers are probably back. 

If Lucina is cut and made into a skin, I'd want Dr. Mario to be a skin, as well as Dark Pit. Clones don't take up a roster slot, but strict clones don't make a roster look good. Even characters like Falco and Wolf at least move in substantially different ways from Fox, even if their movesets are identical. DP, Lucina and DrM don't, and just make the roster look padded. Cutting some fat would be for the better here. But of course, there's no reason real to do this if this is an enhanced port, since ANY work put towards these is already done. 

Edited by Slumber
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I honestly think there will hardly be any cuts this time around, if any at all. I think after the great job they did with Smash 4's roster, they'll want to keep it going and please all the fans they can, cutting characters would be counterproductive to that. However, if anyone is gonna get cut, I feel like those with the highest chances are...

Cloud. As awesome as he is, he always seemed like kind of a random addition, if only because FFVII hasn't ever even been on a Nintendo system. I hope they keep him if Square let's them, but they likely won't wanna go through the hassle.

Ryu. Capcom seems to be on pretty good terms and I think at least one of their reps will stay, but there's no way they'd prioritize Ryu over Mega Man.

Greninja. He's in a similar position as Lucario was and I wouldn't at all be surprised if he stuck around, he's currently the only Water-type Pokemon after all, but at the same time I also wouldn't be surprised to see him leave and a Sun/Moon starter enter the ring.

Miis. I like using my Mii, but they never seemed like a very popular addition.

Corrin. Out of all the Fire Emblem characters, I think Corrin has the highest chance of being cut. Marth is the mascot of FE, Ike is just super popular, they won't tick people off by removing Roy AGAIN, Robin is a very unique character and the main representative of the game that saved the franchise, and Lucina takes pretty much no time at all to complete and is literally a bonus character.

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23 hours ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

I honestly think there will hardly be any cuts this time around, if any at all. I think after the great job they did with Smash 4's roster, they'll want to keep it going and please all the fans they can, cutting characters would be counterproductive to that.

Here's hoping you're right about everyone except Bayonetta because KILL THE WITCH bro.

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58 minutes ago, Hylian Air Force said:

My opinion:

Cut Lucina (keep her as a skin), Corrin, Olimar, Mii, Wii Fit Trainer, and Cloud.

Bring back Ice Climbers.

Revamp Toon Link to fit his TFH incarnation.

Why cut Olimar?

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Why are people suggesting to cut the Bayonetta? I mean, I don't really like her either, but cutting the ballot winner is the biggest "screw you" they could give.

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