We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

21 minutes ago, Omega. said:

Another quick hit: The way Refa bounced and expressed doubt between Junko/kirsche yesterday aligned with my thought process pretty hard. He's a harder read but I'm slightly leaning villager on him ATM.

Weapons, I was pretty confident on Marth/Boron holding a wolf last game but perhaps my posts didn't express it as strongly as I thought. That game was difficult due to all the village infighting which got me distracted, but I'm feeling focused here and better about Junko/kirsche holding a scum. The odds that these two have fought to the death for two dayphases in a row with both of them being villagers is extremely low. It's my hardest ping thus far, just a matter of pinpointing.

Why Junko over kirsche then? Kinda suspicious you subbed in, saw one of them was in your scumteam and that’s where your confidence is coming from.

I reread kirsche latest defense and feel better about keeping my vote on him. I just feel like he’s not thinking things through from a town perspective, eg yes scum can vote park for a day, but so can town, and I think town kirsche would be inclined to consider that.

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

No actually that’d be kind of a dickish thing to sub in and immediately hard bus your teammate like that

[Zkirsche]

I've got more on the way but weapons I'm not angry at Junko for voteparking I'm angry at him for basically ignoring my comments on his attack and his weak LD1 reads.

I even said in my last post that people should consider that town can votepark too before voting me on it.

[Makaze]

2 minutes ago, WeaponsofMassConstruction said:

Why Junko over kirsche then? Kinda suspicious you subbed in, saw one of them was in your scumteam and that’s where your confidence is coming from.

I reread kirsche latest defense and feel better about keeping my vote on him. I just feel like he’s not thinking things through from a town perspective, eg yes scum can vote park for a day, but so can town, and I think town kirsche would be inclined to consider that.

This post never comes from Mafia. Was already leaning that way with Announcer claim, but Weapons is confirmed town where I'm concerned.

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

swag

[Zkirsche]

Junko is scum not because of how long he voted me, or that he was suspicious of me, but the justification he uses to vote me.

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

Man whenever kirsche posts in real time I’m like “he’s town” but then whenever I go back to read his posts I’m like “he’s scum”

help????

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

4 minutes ago, WeaponsofMassConstruction said:

Why Junko over kirsche then? Kinda suspicious you subbed in, saw one of them was in your scumteam and that’s where your confidence is coming from.

I reread kirsche latest defense and feel better about keeping my vote on him. I just feel like he’s not thinking things through from a town perspective, eg yes scum can vote park for a day, but so can town, and I think town kirsche would be inclined to consider that.

I've skimmed over a lot of kirsche's posts tbh.

I remember him trying to say BBM was wolfy early in the game after BBM made a post that was CLEARLY null. Then, Junko came in, they clashed, and have been pretty much locked in on each other since early D1. I can tell you there's wolf between them, but I haven't played with either in probably like years so am not sure who's wolfier individually.

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

Maybe we should just lynch LG. Double flaking has to be scum, right???

[BBM]

Sorry guys just got news that my grandma got rushed to the hospital so I'm not in a very mafia mood atm. I'll probably be back in the evening but quick thoughts:

Don't want to lynch the marth/omega slot

I'm still more confident about the JB vote than anything else. I think shinori brought up a good point wrt how it felt like he brushed aside the jailer claim. That feels similar to me as how he brushed aside fable's townmeta on her yesterday.

I honestly have no other real scumreads but I guess at this point even though I'm not scumreading kirsche I'm finding everyone else less likely to be scum than him. So I'd probably vote jb > kirsche. Still not interested in the junko slot.

People shouldnt just drop their reads on people who subbed out. Subbing out doesn't change alignment.

[Makaze]

My opinion is that kirsche/Junko is more likely to be v/v, but if one is a wolf, it is probably Junko. Having read kirsche, I think he is actually solving and coming up with thoughts. I also believe he's demotivated. Thoughts despite demotivation leans town for me; it takes effort to make up shit as mafia, but you passively make up shit as town because it's what you're supposed to do.

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

5 minutes ago, Zkirsche said:

Junko is scum not because of how long he voted me, or that he was suspicious of me, but the justification he uses to vote me.

Why is athena scum based on rolespec? It feels like your Shinori read was to pick a random post from the thread and to find reasons to scumread it? How much effort did you really put into it?

[Refa]

Time to try for once.

@athena_57

Spoiler

Athena's early D1 replies to me show that he's thinking about the game in a way that would be hard to fake as scum.  I like his first voteswap off of Satsuma when he realized he couldn't get anything more out of the slot, very protown move.  Also IMO his revote on Satsuma reads as a natural progression (this guy is still bothering me the most even after I stepped off) to me.  Why did you approve on the case on Bartozio early on (here), but not see any merit in joining?  Why was there no merit?  Also I feel like here, he'd have to have serious balls as scum to describe his play in this game and be like "that's my play as scum".

You should target me again IMO.  I want OC w/BBM/Bibbon/Omega/Sully/Via in particular.

@BBM

Spoiler

His frustration at Kirsche's ED1 case on him reads as genuine.  It bothers me in this context because he's like "your [Kirsche] vote sucks but I don't think you'd make it as scum" and I don't get why that's the case.  Kirsche tunneled on you during the last game he was scum, why do you think this makes more sense as town?  Your other reads in this post also seem like forced content (they're decent reads but they don't seem to accomplish anything).  They don't really progress the game, and when combined w/the Bibbon vote later on, I'm thinking "what is BBM doing here?".  It seems ridiculously nitpicky, and doesn't actually state why Bibbon is scum.  To me, it feels like BBM is picking on weaker play as opposed to picking on scum play.  You posted here that Bart's play read as vaguely like P5 mafia; what gave you that impression?  Why didn't you post the why back then?  Him dismissing his Bibbon read feels unnatural to me because Bibbon is just doubling down on her stance and yet he feels better about her.  Get the same impression from BBM here, it feels like he's commenting on issues w/Jaybee's play but not really looking deeper.

@Bibbon

Spoiler

Gut read as town based on her earlier posts in the day.  I actually dislike her Zeus push but I think it's more because I disagree with it over seeing scum intent there.  The Athena defense reads as genuine over a scum defending a townie.  Really like the Weapons read here, though.  I uh...don't actually agree with it but the reasoning is good.  Don't see the out of nowhere "I jailkept Eclipse" coming from scum, it's a super suboptimal claim to make when Bibbon was under minimal suspicion.  I think Eclipse was a decent target from protection assuming Bibbon was townreading the slot.

@eclipse

Spoiler

I like her first case on Athena.  I...legit have nothing else to comment on.  I don't even know.

@Fable

Spoiler

I don't have any issues with what reads he has presented (I mean, could stand to be explained more but that's not scummy), but it's hard for me to feel confident in my read on the slot. I do like how he followed up on his promise of getting better as the game progressed though, as his output today has been significantly better than his Day 1 content.

@Fenrir Aesir

Spoiler

Gut read is that his catch up posts had a town mindset, but it's really hard to get a read off of those since he wasn't there.  I'm not really getting anything off of his other content.

@Jaybee

Spoiler

Agree w/BBM in that his intro was lackluster.  He calls out Fable for doing nothing but doesn't really offer anything himself.  I'm fine with his post here, though.  He has reads, I can understand his reads, I do wish they were more explained but these reads don't bother me.  I also like his defense post here; it pretty much explains any issues I had with the slot.  Really not getting why he's being scumread by so many people lol.

@Lord Gaius

Spoiler

Post when?

@Mackc2

Spoiler

Nightmare's first reads post didn't really have any compelling reads, and I feel like there's too many "but I could be wrong" for my tastes.  I didn't pick it apart at the time because I figured it was because he hadn't played mafia in forever, which I still agree with honestly.  Gutread but I don't think Nightmare would argue against Walrein's townread on him based on his tone.  I don't like how Nightmare frames his Kirsche vote as a pressure vote here, despite it being framed as a scumread before.  I feel like there's not much analysis in the second post, though, which bothers me.  This reply seems town on tone, don't see Scum!Nightmare doubling down after getting called out.  His reply to Eury over his lack of scumreads reads as genuine to me, don't see scum GETTING REAL like that.  I think the role could benefit scum (especially if it has a hidden factor to it, like a BPV), but that that's unlikely.

@Magnificence Incarnate

Spoiler

What was wrong w/Athena's D1 Satsuma vote?  I really like the progression on that read.  How is he playing passively?  This seems like a misrep.  That being said, his next post is good, especially in light of the town Bartozio flip.  It's kind of frustrating that they're all town reads, though.  I like his explanation of his Athena issues in the next post.   I was townreading his role earlier, but this is a really good point.  It basically makes him unkillable for scum (disregarding roles, but those can get lynched), which seems borderline unfair.

@RADicate

Spoiler

Don't like how Junk doesn't update his read on ZKirsche here.  He mentions that Eclipse slightly bothers him but like...it seems to be based more on disagreements than actually findint Eclipse scummy.  Feels like Junk misreps Athena's reason for unvoting Satsuma here.  He said he couldn't get anything else out of the vote even though he was still unsatisfied with the slot, which is fine to me.  Also don't like how his defense to tunneling ZKirsche is "Eclipse slightly bothered me!".  Also he still didn't update his vote on Kirsche!  I feel like most of Junk's thoughts are reactionary or just other peoples' thoughts.  This post bothers me on gut.  He dismisses ZKirsche's later content as null and mentions that Page 18 just reaffirms his reads, even though ZKirsche's later content should be far more telling to his alignment.  I already commented on his wallpost here but tl,dr; his read on me is a mess where he's ascribing scum intent to actions where there aren't any.  He's still harping on Kirsche for his ED1 content and not updating his read significantly (yes, he touches on Kirsche's vote on Bartozio but nothing else).  To me, this reads as him throwing a bunch of individual reads on players but not trying to understand these reads in the greater context.

@SatsumaFSoysoy @Snike

Spoiler

I don't like how Satsuma took potshots at Athena after first unvoting the slot on ED1 here, it bothers me tonally.  It's confrontational in a scummy way because he's antagonizing Athena over voicing concerns over the voteswap.  Does it more here and it really doesn't read as a Town PoV to me.   Really don't like how he says "but I can't tell if they're town or scum" when I question him on why he didn't vote Athena.  You can't call out Athena and later be like "...could be town though".  That's just not how it works.  Ugh, this post seems like town from tone, but I still don't like how the Athena case was handled in the first place.  Something I noticed was that if Satsuma was scum, I feel like any half decent scum team would have told him to claim Role Miller right away.  This is something that people should keep in mind if like BBM flips scum or something.  Don't like this post, it implies that Athena's read on Satsuma is worth less just because it came right after Bartozio's, even though they don't even use the same reasoning.  REALLY don't like this read from Snike, which frames Athena as backpedaling + hypocrisy when that clearly wasn't the case?  Athena said "now's your chance to redeem yourself", which is obviously just him being dramatic and has no influence on his actual post.   Obligatory filler post.  Really don't like Snike starting to push Nightmare after his claim, reads as opportunistic to me.  I don't remember my Athena defenses until recently, so you're going to have to link me to what's bothering you.  I never thought any JB scumread was good though lol.

@Shinori

Spoiler

I don't like Shinori's ED1 post here.  He scumreads Kirsche for being wrong and Bartozio for not having enough reads.  Doesn't seem like he's looking for scum intent to me.  Also here is really unfair to Athena because almost nothing noteworthy happened at that point in time FMPOV, and I don't like how he's framing it as Athena actively being unhelpful.  This reply to Satsuma weirds me out.  He asks Satsuma why Satsuma is townreading him and Eclipse, which seems like filler content because Satsuma as either alignment would have a decent reason to townread these two completely noncontroversial slots.  Rest is fine.  Dunno if Scum!Shinori would just casually claim that he used a night action.  Something about this reads post bothers me on a gut level.  His reads on Walrein/JB/me/BBM don't feel fleshed out at all and he hasn't talked about us in a scum context in forever it feels like.  They're all "I could see this person doing this as scum" but not why that's more likely to be the case.  Also he mentioned Junk was leaning scum but then doesn't actually have a read on Junk in this post!  For the record, Mackc2, Satsuma, Eclipse, and some other people scumreading Kirsche were who I was thinking of WRT the chainsaw defense of Junk.

@SullyMcGully

Spoiler

The way he claimed here was townie.  I doubt Scum!Sully would make the mistake of active ability = scum.  Still salty that it wasn't a guilty.  Sully's post here reminds me of his content in P5, feel good about this slot.  Also, me/Via are less towny than in that game because we're not in a Five Man Town Network lol.  I have noone to bounce my thoughts off of and it's driving me absolutely bonkers.

@Vi-astra

Spoiler

Is town.  Have fun getting NK'd!  JK you're great, please make more reads so I can sheep them.

@Walrein

Spoiler

Why did you townread Fable early on (even if it was the mildest of townreads)?  Why was he never going to be the D1 lynch?  Also don't worry, I am town. =)  Him disappearing is annoying because it makes it impossible for my read on the slot to progress.  If you thought I was town for being a networker, what did you think of Athena?  Did you think both networkers were town/town?  Like the progression on the Nightmare's role, it feels genuine to me.

@WeaponsofMassConstruction

Spoiler

Really like his first major reads post.  Offers a decent amount of new insight and none of it seems to be in bad faith.  I disagree that Athena backing off Satsuma is similar to him backing off of Bartozio's vig claim last game, because Scum!Athena doesn't look better for backing off of Satsuma here.  

@zeus_112

Spoiler

Zeus only pays attention to himself and doesn't bother to do anything unless he's getting voted.  I don't think being antitown is inherently scummy, but the focus on self preservation is.  While his mindset fits the scum MO, I don't think his cases really do.  He's dismissing the popular wagons to vote for Fable, which is a weird scum move.  I feel like he has to be town if Fable is scum w/how their interactions have played it (and vica-versa).  Not related to my read on him, but I love this post.  This post bothers me because it's a reads post but there aren't even any real reads (not even waffles).

@Zkirsche

Spoiler

On 4/9/2018 at 5:26 PM, Zkirsche said:

Ah but just because 40 > 35 > 30 > 22 doesn't mean 22 isn't too big.

What was the largest non-Eimm non-multifaction game ran on this site? This must be up there.

How did you know this game isn't multifaction?

What are your thoughts on Zeus?  In ED1, you mentioned that his reluctance to vote on D1 was more likely to come from town, but you've mostly ignored him since then.  I think your explanation on your early BBM read was good; when pressed, your explanation elaborated on your thought process as opposed to reiterating your original case which I feel like you do as scum.  What about BBM's reads at this point were very agreeable to you?  Really like how you're asking for people to analyze you though; reads as a townie being confident that they'll come out looking good.  Got a similar impression from this post as well.  Do you still want me to answer the question about Athena's buddies?

I did it, guys.  I'll summarize my reads in my next post and vote.

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

@ppl did you actually comprehend Junko’s paragraphs

[Iris]

Something has happened!

 

We just got Alette(r)!

Alette has subbed in for Fenrir Aesir.

[SatsumaFSoysoy]

7 hours ago, SullyMcGully said:

 

@SatsumaFSoysoy I feel highly satisfied with your latest post. More on that later. But I need clarification: this is your first SF game, right? Not your first game of Mafia ever? Because if it's the latter case, then the jump from being kinda underwhelming D1 to all of the sudden having pretty good reads D2 heavily suggests the help of scumbuddies. 

The former is true. My reads are a bit different from Snike's.

[Alette]

LOL and sup

[Jaybee]

I still don't strongly feel a Junko case here? Like... again, is it the waffling? I don't see scum intent as much as a lack of motivation/time. If someone can link/summarise why there's a case here I'd be happy to read it. and yeah i've put like 0 effort into reading anything regarding kirsche v junk

On Weapons

Spoiler

I remember commenting somewhere on D1 that I didn't like Weapons. Reading back his iso as I write this post, and I'm going to cut out the shenanigans which I took to be a null read because it's weapons.

1. opportunistic. Athena went back to reread his role PM later and I don't recall Weapons saying anything about it. I believe this is the first time anyone raises an issue with Bart's play too, and this is over nothing, tbh.

2. this is a lot of words for no end result

3. quoted earlier, but I find everything here to be super waffly

4. gives himself a backdoor for the bart lynch

5. announce doesn't say much regarding scumreads aside from Fable - and then this is all he's said on Fable D2

Quote

I read Fable's ISO and I think the thing that was bothering me was that his reads are pretty easy and besides that, I feel like people may be townreading him because his posts sounds confident and I'm paranoid about these sorts of things. There's no specific thing I picked up on that was outright scummy though, so I guess this is a pls post more in-depth reads slot. Gonna vote park until I find something better.

also the vote park implies that he's not got any other scumread - and at this point, short of a kinda weak one on athena, he really doesn't at early D2.

6. i'm fine with his reread on kirsche/junko

7. and his response to bibbon

Like my overall feeling is that he's not done any actual scumhunting of note. His reads of Fable and kirsche are incredibly meh at best, and once the Bart train started he kind of just disappeared and let it carry on its own.

On Nightmare/Mack

Spoiler

1. Start of his push on me. I'm fine with this post itself, but linking here for reference.

2. here he's gone from scumreading athena in 1 to a slight townread, but then he's agreeable to Weapons' scumread on athena?

3. gives himself another out here for me flipping town if/when i die

4. honestly the rest of his D1 again feels like he's giving himself a way out for when the D1 lynch goes badly.

5. enough has been said about this post

6. Missing out the macho aspect is null, imo, it's just carelessness to me.

7. lol idk man now both sides are saying the other is being uncooperative in the QT

8. this is nothing

9. super buddy buddy w junko here, also went from a weapons vote to saying that weapons doesn't bother him much?

10. if Mack really hasn't been using the QT that also doesn't reflect well on him

Feel like Nightmare's play was aimed at positioning himself better after mislynches happen, main thing for Mack is everything in 9 and 10.

On Eclipse

Spoiler

1. Mayor claim is fine.

2. I think enough has also been said about her general attitude towards Zeus and her steadfastness in wanting him lynched here and here and by other players whom i can't remember right now

3. She keeps harping on the fact that a zeus lynch is fine because of the associative reads it'll provide. Sure, but a lynch on someone more active like Athena or Marth/Omega or Junko would give a lot more? I don't see any town reason for pushing the Zeus lynch from her POV.

4. She never addresses athena's correction of her misrep of his lynch priority (boy, that was a mouthful). 

5. Is asking people to stop claiming roles something Eclipse normally does?

6. here the thought progression wrt me is super off - because she couldn't see my POV on Marth's claim, everything else I said became null? Did you find scum intent in my D1 posts or in my interpretation of Marth's claim? And she hasn't followed up on my response.

7. haven't read that thoroughly but her pushing Marth is fine.

Man, when I started on this I was sure she looked worse but now it's just Zeus stuff, tbh. I still see the scum intent in pushing for a zeus lynch with the intensity she has, and that's about it so far.

I'm nowhere near done, these are just some of the people that popped up more clearly in my mind as scumreads. Might continue in the morning.

##Vote: Mack

How do you read junko?

[Jaybee]

grats to me on getting sniped by 2 pages you little shits

[Fable]

1 minute ago, Iris said:

Alette has subbed in for Fenrir Aesir.

[youtube]

[/youtube]

[Makaze]

On 4/14/2018 at 2:48 PM, Jaybee said:

and yes I still don't feel right about Bibbon

1. I don't understand the randomness of the jailer claim and it wasn't needed at all. And I can't come up with a good town reason for openly revealing that, just... scummy ones, like towncred.

2. The overall sentiment of this post feels very very wrong to me. Snike has been pushing this athena thing since he subbed in but she's townreading Athena; kirsche and junko have been directing posts at each other the whole game. Are any of them scummy for being persistent in their cases, and if not, why? (outside of this). I mean, you yourself are pushing this Weapons thing pretty hard... (which I do think is legit, I've got my own issues with Weapons but I can't post that now since it's almost 3am).

would mostly like some responses to my earlier post wrt bibbon, I feel better about her than I did D1 but not clear yet.

Just read JB. Everything they said was lacklustre except for this, which I find interesting.

Refa got the opposite idea from the JK claim. Refa, I think that JB has a good point because if you are the town jailer, the mafia are going to want to kill you ASAP. You never reveal such a powerful role without suspicion as town. You might do it as mafia to gain towncred, but I'd be very worried about getting NK'd. Firstly, it looks good, so you are unlikely to get lynched. Secondly, you have both town protection and mafia kill blocking abilities. Claiming this in thread gives mafia a safe, no-negative-impact nightkill choice that also gets rid of sunstantial stopping power. The reason for the NK is obvious and readspec is out the window. Plus, it's extremely unlikely there is a vanilla doctor in the game to save that obvious kill. JK can't save themselves. It's a godsend.

When that person doesn't get NK'd, it makes you wonder: WTF is scum thinking.

So we'll see, I guess. I don't think any other role that has been claimed has as much potential to fuck with their plans as a JK. If they go for the WIFOM route and hope that we mislynch them for surviving D3, I don't know what kind of strategy they're playing but it's not the best way to play their hand.

[Alette]

2 minutes ago, Fable said:

[youtube]

[/youtube]

Ily too fable, I'm going to catch up when I am not doing school work

[Alette]

I will say really quickly that walrein during early D1 is townie

[Makaze]

On that note @Iris does this game have assigned factional kills (can the mafia's kill be blocked)?

[Iris]

@Makaze Yes.