We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[Refa]

I realize I kind of slacked off on posting about later content, so I'll do that here.

Town

Via- I don't know how he always rolls town lol.

SullyMcGully- He's playing exactly like he did in P5 mafia, and considering his play in Antihero (where he was obvious scum as all get out), I feel very confident here.  Also his claim makes no sense coming from scum.

Kaoz (Bibbon)- No issues w/her play and I really don't see that Jailkeeper claim + claimed action coming from scum.  @Makaze A Jailkeeper claim is bad for scum because people will scumread the slot purely for being alive later on.  Also, as scum I would be fearing a hostile ITP in a 22p game, so I wouldn't claim a protective role of all things unprompted.

ZKirsche- After rereading, he's probably my strongest townread based purely on play (well, there's Via but Via is too easy to read as town).  I like his progression on his Junk read BUT ALSO I think the way he asks people to update their reads on him and try considering his PoV is way more likely to come from town.

Athena- Don't agree w/the cases on him anymore and a lot of his posts read as him trying to figure out the game.  I still don't like how his reads today seem...too easy?  But I think his play combined with targeting me not making sense as scum (in addition to what Makaze said) makes him more likely to be town.

Omega (Marth)- I thought Marth's content was townie (again, I really don't get the criticism here except for the way he claimed) and I think Omega's content is too.  I'm still paranoid about the claim, though. ;/

Fable- I appreciate his improvement from his D1 play, just wish he had more interactions and elaborated on his stuff more so I'd feel more confident here.

Makaze- I like his recent posts and his questions directed at me.  

Jaybee- I don't think his content has been particularly strong but tonally he reads town and there hasn't been anything that's specifically bothered me.  Also honestly the wagon on him is making me confirmation bias because none of those things seem scummy to me.  @Jaybee Read my spoilered Junk case, it's not that long.

 

Null

Weapons- Tonally, he reads town but a lot of his actions are confusing the fuck out of me.  Feel like he'll be easier to read w/flips.

Walrein- Everything he's done makes me think he's more likely to be town but he's been so under the radar that it's hard for me to get a handle on him.

Mackc2- He'd be a townread ordinarily because I thought Nightmare's reasoning behind why he didn't feel confident in his reads was good and his claimed night action seems like a town action to me.  It bothers me that Mackc2 has been ignoring the Neighborhood QT though, which is why he's here.

Fenrir Aesier- I thought his sub in posts were okay until he stopped posting lol.

Lord Gaius- True neutral.

Eclipse- It genuinely bothers me that I don't have a solid read on Eclipse because she's posted enough that I really should have and I don't know what's up with that.  I don't like her push on the Omega/Marth slot today, but that's about it.

 

Mafia

BBM- I feel like he's been picking on weaker play over scum play in general but sometimes he makes posts where he just backtracks on everything and I'm like "would he do that as scum".  Basically, I'm not sure if he's actually town or forcing his town meta.  Probably a weaker read overall, would really like a response from him honestly.

Shinori- Shinori has had a lot of filler reads where he's not really looking for scum intent which bothers me.  I don't know how good I feel about this because he's done a few things where I'm like "does this actually make sense as scum" so uh...would like some replies from him, too!

Snike/Satsuma- The Athena tunnel bothers me much more on a reread because it feels like he's framing everything Athena has done as scummy.  Other than that, him and Satsuma both individually have reads but I don't feel like they're pushing much else and when they are it bothers me (the Nightmare push in particular).

RADicate (Junko)- Junko looks way worse on a reread because I noticed that he didn't really update his Kirsche read ever, he just doubled down on the same thing while ignoring Kirsche.  I also don't feel great about his Athena read anymore, his Eclipse read is filler, and his read on me is scummy probably (why didn't he reply to me????).

 

##Vote: RADicate

[Refa]

Feels so good to get that off my chest.  I think I finally have a decent handle on this game for the time being stop laughing at my reads IriSB. : (

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

Tfw you mindmeld with your bro and he townreads you.

Feelsgoodman.

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Omega. said:

Tfw you mindmeld with your bro and he townreads you.

Feelsgoodman.

F E E L S  G O O D  M A N

[Fable]

My Zeus read might have been bad RIP.

@Refa Is there anything specifically you'd want me to elaborate on? 

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

If Kaoz doesn't jailkeep Refa tonight, plz kill him.

[Makaze]

@Refa Claiming here is fatal as both alignments though... I'm just arguing the damage is immediate if you are town.

I guess it's one way leave the game without subbing out lmao

[Kaoz]

Gonna check out some of the stuff that got linked tomorrow, but for now I want to say that I don't feel the JB case.

As far as I understand, he's mostly been posting way past midnight and it makes sense to me if he doesn't have the most fleshed out cases at those times. Also, I take issue with several of BBM's points because they either neglect circumstances or, in my eyes, just don't interpret JB's intentions correctly.

The Fable stuff from the first two posts reads to me as if JB came into the thread during break or whatever, saw something he thought was off and dropped a vote to get a better read on the situation, but didn't contribute much further due to time constraints. I agree that a bit more substance to the unvote would've been nice, but the question he pitched to Refa doesn't add to that in my eyes. Overall it reads to me as if he unvoted because his reason for the initial vote disappeared (apparently Fable posted some opinions in the meantime), but didn't understand Refa's point on why he thought Fable's initial post was flat-out townie. Those are separate issues. Same goes for the eclipse bit. If targeting people for playing in a certain way is something JB feels town!eclipse does, it's more like a "I don't like this on a content level, but coming from this person it's townie", similar to what he said about kirsche tunneling. It doesn't contradict the final post BBM linked in his case either because the reason for the shifting read is based on something else entirely.

I don't quite follow some of the reasoning Athena laid out either. Why is it obvious that there was scum early on the Bart wagon? In this context though, @Refa, what's your take on JB not switching from Bart to Bibbon?

And a couple more questions:

@Jaybee You unvoted this slot because of the sub, but where is it in your lynch priority disregarding that? Still at the top or did one of the other people you cased now jump ahead?

@Omega Can you enlighten me a bit regarding those interactions from past games you brought up?

[Refa]

Just now, Makaze said:

@Refa Claiming here is fatal as both alignments though... I'm just arguing the damage is immediate if you are town.

I guess it's one way leave the game without subbing out lmao

Yeah, I just think town is more likely to make the bad play in this scenario.

3 minutes ago, Fable said:

My Zeus read might have been bad RIP.

@Refa Is there anything specifically you'd want me to elaborate on? 

Who would you prefer voting between Junko/Weapons?  What do you think of Weapons' later posts?  How do you feel about Mackc2 suspecting you on thread (okay, my head is really scrambled right now but he did suspect you right?)?  Like, not him ignoring you in the QT, but the case on its own merits?  What are your thoughts on the Jaybee wagon?  Thoughts on Eclipse?

Preemptive apology if you already mentioned these but I'm very exhausted after that huge reads post.

3 minutes ago, Kaoz said:

I don't quite follow some of the reasoning Athena laid out either. Why is it obvious that there was scum early on the Bart wagon? In this context though, @Refa, what's your take on JB not switching from Bart to Bibbon?

It initially bothered me but I liked his explanation for it in that he made his original vote on Bart, and then later left his vote on Bart despite having a stronger Bibbon read because Bibbon was unlikely to get lynched on D1.  

[Athena_57]

I liked JB's post. I don't agree with the weapons case, but whatever, I can see why he would have issues. I agree with the nightmare/mack case (and vote) and I like his points on Eclipse, who I myself am still on the fence about. His cases are fine, even if I don't necessarily agree with all of them. Following closely how this progresses, but my vote can go elsewhere for now.

##Unvote

I reread Kirsche and Junk and after actually looking at the blob of text Junk posted in detail I dislike it. The attack on Refa makes no sense, the attacks on me I've already mentioned and his stuff on Kirsche is bad, as discussed by others. Kirsche is looking better, Junk is looking worse and I agree with the notion there's likely scum among them. Good chance of scum, good associative reads, needs to be pressured into content, what more do you want from a vote?

##Vote: RADicate

I'm interested in seeing what RAD brings to the table, mostly because Junk has been tunneling and a wider view would help a ton in reading this slot.

[Refa]

5 minutes ago, Omega. said:

If Kaoz doesn't jailkeep Refa tonight, plz kill him.

TBH, it wouldn't have any negative effect on my night phase, so I wouldn't mind lol.

[Athena_57]

6 minutes ago, Kaoz said:

I don't quite follow some of the reasoning Athena laid out either. Why is it obvious that there was scum early on the Bart wagon?

This isn't a hard rule but when a townie is mislynched, I'm going to assume scum had a hand in it, albeit small. This doesn't necessarily mean it's a "scumpowered" wagon, but it feels to me like at least 1 scummember would either jump on the opportunity or is the source of this wagon. None of the other people on the early wagon (so votes before 1 hour till phase end) really bothered me, so PoE led me to JB. In fact, it's the biggest reason I'm still leaning scum on him.

Do you agree with this reasoning or do you think all 4 "non-consolidation" votes are confused townies?

And if you do agree, who else besides JB makes sense as scum FYPOV?

[Shinori]

46 minutes ago, Zkirsche said:

Junko is scum not because of how long he voted me, or that he was suspicious of me, but the justification he uses to vote me.

Then why are you voting me?

@RefaThe junko read from previous was also before he made his bigger posts this day phase and after that post came out I wasn't scum reading him as much, he defintely dropped below other people on my radar.

Also @Refa

ED1 post: Kirsche read was more about him seeming to grasp at anything to say, I felt his questions and posts were forced and what he was saying didn't make sense, as if it was forced to come out.  Bart read wasn't just on him having no reads. At that point in time, this actually got commented later on in day 1, I had thought Bart was attacking Satsuma for Not having reads and not giving reads, whereas Bart was doing the same thing at the time so it was hypocritical and I felt he was trying to push attention away form him and towards Satsuma for it, who also at the point in time was getting a lot of flack and gathering votes on themselves.  I saw this as Scum trying to push an easy misslynch while not providing real content.

Second post response: I mean that's also a matter of opinion. I felt the BBM/Junko worth meriting on seeing as I commented on it myself(I believe) as well as a few other people saw it as something worth commenting on and it was also the biggest thing to happen at the time.  The other part of my post is the fact that if somene really wants out of RVS they can do something to get them out of RVS.  For Example the Walrein post this game where he voted Athena(I think) while stating it was "Serious" but not stating why. This ended up drawing more reactions and getting conversation started.  IF someone really wants RVS to end, as town or scum, they can force themselves to do something to end it; the point being is that town is more likely to forcibly make themselves do something for the sake of ending RVS as scum is perfectly content with RVS lasting a whole day or two, as seen in cuphead mafia.  This is also a big reason why I was town reading Walrein in the early parts of day 1.

Third post response: I can see someone as having a town read on someone that's not controversial HOWEVER the thing that confused me was Satsuma saying I was his BIGGEST town read at the time and I didn't understand that specifically.  This also can correlate somewhat to Eclipse considering she wasn't as active as some other people who I felt were townier at the time.  I think having someone explain why someone is their most town read is something important especially if they have already taken the time to state it out in the open for everyone to see.   Someone not being a controversial topic also doesn't mean someone can't case said person or scum read said person or even just null read them.  Generally if someone is actually controversial you would assume they would be more likely null, not the strongest town read they have.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

Do people think Makaze is villa btw?

I am null on him but I don't think I'd lynch him today. If someone has a strong V read on him, I suggest you look back when zeus was getting dogpiled. A wolf or 2 would have been going on him because he was about as easy pickings as it gets. I thought it was weird how much effort was put into questioning him.

I'm glad someone agrees with me that Shinori's posts have felt like going through the motions. I also rescind my light V read on Satsuma/Snike. BBM, truth be told I've been skimming his posts hard but I know he's been tiptoeing around the kirsche/Junko conflict which I found strange. I like Refa's direction though; this game needs a good kick in the butt.

@Kaoz

In SB's Alice in Brexitland Mafia, Prims and Arcanite crossvoted/suspected each other early in the game. I got scumvibes and suspected that there was a scum between them, and a lot of my play revolved around that. Same with the last game where Boron/Marth did the same, though I later got distracted by a lot of townies fighting each other myself included.  

Basically what I'm trying to tell you is that I have a propensity to pick up on early game conflicts and strongly read them as scum vs. town.

[Alette]

@RefaWho is rad this game and is there anyone else I know with a different name?

[Shinori]

I didn't notice there was a whole page here of stuff to read.  I feel most of my scum reads are focusing on scum intent @Refa This was partially already explained in my last post but in my opinions things done by the people I'm scum reading do have scum-intent behind them.

29 minutes ago, Omega. said:

If Kaoz doesn't jailkeep Refa tonight, plz kill him.

I'm pretty sure I'm fine with this as well but probably for different reasons than you are thinking of.

[Shinori]

6 minutes ago, Omega. said:

I'm glad someone agrees with me that Shinori's posts have felt like going through the motions. I also rescind my light V read on Satsuma/Snike. BBM, truth be told I've been skimming his posts hard but I know he's been tiptoeing around the kirsche/Junko conflict which I found strange. I like Refa's direction though; this game needs a good kick in the butt.

Still waiting for you to actually type out words and explain your thought process behind this.  You literally have so far done nothing except explain why you wanted me to comment on Nightmare.

You quoted an entire post and just said "lol, Shinori might be Wolf." and are saying you feel like my posts are just 'going through the motions' while not actually commenting on any of my other posts.

If I had a vig shot I think I'd policy shoot you right now. Jesus.

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

Fuck it

##Unvote

##Vote: Lord Gaius

With the amount of townreads I’m having, I think this is actually pretty likely.

associative reads my ass

[Zkirsche]

@Snike What do you think of Omega and his bold entrance in large red text?

 

I don't necessarily disagree/agree on it but it's just weird ITP spec that just isn't necessary? ITP spec in general is bad because it's hard to determine the subtlety of SK vs town play (I do think there is a difference though) and it just ends up being used to throw paranoia on an otherwise universal townread (e.g. Refa). Then to claim it is just gut is annoying.

I understand the frustration at how I've handwaved them because that is what I feel about my Junko case but I can't change my opinion of it. I'm just missing the crazy scumreads on the slots. The picky stuff in particular that stood out to me is stuff like Satsuma's early suspicion over "well here's your chance for redemption" by Athena, silly stuff like that. More recently there was you harping on Athena for picking Refa when Refa is really not a bad pick (at least not in my opinion) and not that unnatural for Athena given Athena's post? You kinda just listed everyone that Athena townread and presented it as a better option than Refa. About JB, I don't really know much about the slot, but there was a post by BBM where he was just "JB's posts just aren't very good." and that shuts my brain off a bit to the case.

Think I'm gonna stop talking about roles/rolespec tbh I've made my stances clear and it's gonna derail discussion too much unless I claim.

35 minutes ago, WeaponsofMassConstruction said:

Why is athena scum based on rolespec? It feels like your Shinori read was to pick a random post from the thread and to find reasons to scumread it? How much effort did you really put into it?

W.r.t. Shinori's post, that was a post that he made after I prompted him to make it so it wasn't really a random post. I didn't like his reads list and the fact that he didn't comment on Junko at all as I've been trying to think about who Junko's scumbuddies are likely to be and stuff like that is what you have to look out for. Apparently the lack of Junko pressure is just gut which is obviously dubious.

The expansive reads are a little on the basic side for my liking, stuff like people voting Bibbon (which is really just bad play rather than scummy play), Athena sheeping (sheeping isn't scummy guys), and I definitely feel like there should be more than "gut" determining your Junko read as well given everything. Has anything changed here with Refa's mega post @Shinori? I felt like he did a good job putting everything together in a bitesize piece. Would like to know what @Kaoz thinks too.

As for consolidating I had to leave and the votes were pretty spread out at the time so I wanted to put it on arreal wagon and I though Bart's was better at the time.

I dislike BBM's attitude towards me recently (I'm on his lynch priority just through PoE which is really bad for BBM), but his actions overall have been pretty townie. His reconsideration and self-awareness in regards to his Bibbon read early on, the fact that he was able to realise it was more frustration at playstyle looks quite good and I wish more people had that awareness. He also came into D2 kinda lost for reads and that naturally sparked him into a bunch of rereads and I feel like scum!BBM wouldn't come into the phase weak like that. Maybe I'm just overestimating him though. Not willing to lynch here for a while, just keep an eye on the slot.

I thought Zeus was town right from the getgo and didn't think his actions would come from scum. I felt like the people who were casing him (e.g. Fable) were more just mad at being snarked at (there was a post from Fable that really made that clear imo)

@Mackc2 Is Junko scum? I know you think I am tunneling but what do you think of my case's logic at least, ignoring that Junko didn't post much.

I have to go now, will try and re-evaluate people later tonight. I still think Junko is the best lynch.

[Fable]

21 minutes ago, Refa said:

Who would you prefer voting between Junko/Weapons?  What do you think of Weapons' later posts?  How do you feel about Mackc2 suspecting you on thread (okay, my head is really scrambled right now but he did suspect you right?)?  Like, not him ignoring you in the QT, but the case on its own merits?  What are your thoughts on the Jaybee wagon?  Thoughts on Eclipse?

 

Junko I think? At least I would have a direction to go in no matter what junk flips, I don't know what weapons flipping V would tell me if he did. Weapons just seems like posts and posts of "I'll do stuff later" and then they'll be a decent post here and there before more "I'll do stuff later", not a fan. Mack suspecting me is hot garbage when he has a QT to talk to me in and question me however he wants and hasn't, he's going downhill for me hard. Like I can't talk about a case because there isn't one his bit on me is so nondescript it's silly. Eclipse I'm sticking to my V read and I'm fine with the JB wagon because he hasn't done anything to make me V read him and I'm very confidant there's a wolf in the first 4 names of the Bartozio wagon.   

[Zkirsche]

Oof I missed that post Shinori above me but I explained that it was the reads post that spurred my vote. I'll do a better read through later.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

6 minutes ago, Shinori said:

Still waiting for you to actually type out words and explain your thought process behind this.  You literally have so far done nothing except explain why you wanted me to comment on Nightmare.

You quoted an entire post and just said "lol, Shinori might be Wolf." and are saying you feel like my posts are just 'going through the motions' while not actually commenting on any of my other posts.

If I had a vig shot I think I'd policy shoot you right now. Jesus.

I've given a few V leans/reads and have given a solid wolfpool between Junko/kirsche.

Are you thinking Kaoz/Refa's scummy here?

Look, here's the thing. When you went at Nightmare earlier in the game, I'm pretty sure no one was really paying him much attention. Nightmare made a post that I thought was very bad that I'm about to go and look up. Basically, here are the scenarios:

1. Shinori W / Nightmare V = Shinori is picking at an easy villager. Nightmare's posts came across as a bit apathetic and struggling to get into the game.

2. Shinori V / Nightmare W = Shinori has picked up on Nightmare's scumminess while most others have been blind to it.

3. Shinori V / Nightmare V = Prototypical V on V violence.

4. Shinori W / Nightmare W = Lol.

Basically, I'm wondering why you went at Nightmare when you did when most people weren't really paying him much mind. You going at Nightmare WHEN you did was interesting. It just really stuck out to me and I'm wondering if there was something there. I'm not as confident as I am with like Junko/kirsche, but I can see why someone would suspect Nightmare with the way he's approached this game. At the same time, I could also see a wolf picking at him because I probably would have gone at him myself if I was wolf and he was villa. For me, it's the most useful tool for reading you thus far because it's the most unique thing you've done. Your other reads, while well-reasoned, come across as run-of-the-mill and I don't get much from them. I think your Nightmare read's the best shot I've got at reading you (and maybe him) so far.

BRB, gonna go pull up the post.

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

7 minutes ago, Fable said:

Junko I think? At least I would have a direction to go in no matter what junk flips, I don't know what weapons flipping V would tell me if he did. Weapons just seems like posts and posts of "I'll do stuff later" and then they'll be a decent post here and there before more "I'll do stuff later", not a fan.

but this is you

[Fable]

Also rereading that post I'm bothered by mack attacking marth and kirsche for "tunneling" junko but junko gets a free pass because he's doesn't have a lot of content while ignoring his tunnel on kirsche also while attacking me for apparently also not having a lot of content. Like there's so much inconsistency there.  

[Fable]

2 minutes ago, WeaponsofMassConstruction said:

but this is you

I don't believe you're reading my posts if you think this.