We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[Iris]

Day 3.2
Jaybee (4): Omega, SullyMcGully, Via, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy
Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy (2): Baldrick
Walrein (2): Fable, Lord Gaius
Makaze (1): Refa

Not Voting: Everyone Else

There are ~69.25 hours left in the day. With 17 alive, it takes 6 to lynch and 12 to hammer.

Edited April 18, 2018 by Iris

[Refa]

1 minute ago, SullyMcGully said:

Refa, didn't you just tell me that you were scumreading Makaze because he didn't have a real reason to switch to Junko? 

I'm not trying to protect him or defame you, but I just want to know if I missed something. Some of your statements feel like contradictions but that's probably just because I'm missing something.

I asked them yesterday, but kept forgetting to tell you all about it. Announcer is an active role, it would roleblock my power.

So wait, there's no quicktopic this phase? Is the one between Mack and Fable still open?

No, it's because I thought he was scumreading Junko but was later reluctant to vote him because ???.  Makaze's explanation is fine honestly but I don't get why he's continuing to scumread the Eclipse slot and want to see what he puts out there.

Fuck.

If neither of the Co-Networkers claim blocked, then I would assume there is one.  According to what the Co-Networkers said, the Mack/Fable one is open until one of them dies.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

A thought I had on gamestate earlier was that there was a fair amount of confusion D2. I remember several players expressing this. I think some combination of:

- Wolves were reading each other V/resisting going in on each other

- A wolf or 2 was being largely read villa at some point in the game, causing villas uncertainty in producing wolf reads

- Villagers were lost on the Junk/kirsche divide and didn't know what to do with a couple of nulls (in their minds) on the table

Explains it. This dayphase feels clearer already, but figured I'd post this as food for thought. I still think at least 1 wolf was largely being read V, though Shinori might fit that description.

[ZoesMad]

3 minutes ago, Snike said:

I should clarify;

when I said Serial Killer*, I was referring to the top of my post where I said wolf in setup  to Fable. I think the shot was from a vig given how many people were scumreading him but I'm not about to say 100% that was the case.

I agree with refa on this.

agreed to an extent on walrein @Lord Gaius; but I would and will lynch JB over them as of right now. shinori also had an early push on them d1, forgot about it, then iirc scumread them again for unspecified reasons, which Kirsche called him out on. I just think what they have said has been ok, but the not showing up is ??? right now.

At the moment the biggest scumread from my reread is JB as well, and I would gladly consolidate there, but like Fable said we already have adequate pressure so I think my vote is best served moved onto the Walrein wagon right now. 

Anyway I could see potential JB and Mack / Nightmare scum scum interactions, nightmare seemed to read JB out of necessity instead of any real conviction due to his gigantic number of town / null reads, and if JB is parked on scum early it'll look better for him if Nightmare were to flip. Mack subbing in seemed to have taken some of the pressure off the nightmare slot but those interactions still seem fishy. 

 

[ZoesMad]

On 4/16/2018 at 9:41 AM, Kaoz said:

Shinori: I think his ED1 stuff was fine. Even if you don't agree with the way he went about it, it reads to me as if he tried to push stuff he took issue with, even if it was more minor, to get more content out of the people he attacked and form better reads. For early in the game that's a legitimate strategy in my eyes. The post responding to Satsuma also makes sense to me. Satsuma gave reasons for the other reads, but when it came to Shinori it was just a "yeah, town" kinda deal, so being inquisitive about that is fine. There are some interesting points regarding the reads list though. I'm curious how much you and Refa took into account that those reads are apparently (?) better supported in previous posts. Or is the issue that he only talked about you and Athena before and the scum leans seemed to come out of nowhere? In that case, would it make sense to push those leans over the two hard scum reads he had? Finally, the fact that he left out Junko in the explanations might be telling, but only if Junko flips scum, so it's something to remember for later and not worth pushing right now.

This makes me what to townread Kaoz, I can't see scum coming into the game with one of their first posts and setting up lynches on two of their buddies. 

[Snike]

I can understand that I'm just elaborating on my opinions on the stuff today.

I think mack got credit for the roleclaim which is MACHO Martyr but I think with junko flip he looks worse since he was one of those people refa made a comment about who was chainsawing junko;

Also like I said I think via claiming roleblocked means that kaoz is 100% clear. I don't think scum would have double fulltime roleblockers and my concern when junko flipped (I thought about this overnight) was that the jailkeep was a fakeclaim and the target was just hooked by junko. Since it exists though he's clear.

 

[Baldrick]

45 minutes ago, Snike said:

LolBaldrick. I stayed on kirsche wagon not to mess with the wagons at the end of the day and because I thought it was the safer lynch. What do people think about that vote?

Page 64: the votals were 8-4,   your slot on junko.

Page 65: Soy moves the vote to kirsche after discussing it with you. Votals are now 7-5

Page 66: You suggest a "crazy turbo" on BBM/Gaius

You have a strange definition of "not messing with the wagons".

45 minutes ago, Snike said:

I don't think refa is in any world scum; I'm doubting athena hard too.

OK

45 minutes ago, Snike said:

I don't think soy was omgusing???

I thought the below was talking about Soy.

"@eclipse Why isn't athena just as bad for the exchange w/ soy back on page 6/7 then? I entirely agree now that I'm looking at the actual post that it's bad (because I would and have hedged my words similarly as town) but I think  Athena's is more blatant and he got away with it earlier on. "

It seems to be talking about Marth? If that is right, fair enough.

In any case, I don't think the confrontation was as one-sided as you paint it. Soy was reactionary, calling Athena arrogant, and saying he had a mob mentality because he's voting with Bartozio.

45 minutes ago, Snike said:

And like the zeus/athena is bad imo since it isn't scumhunting it's looking active while stating the obvious stuff?

Zeus' attitude was so bad that he produced nothing to scumhunt. I read it as a genuine effort to make him post content. Scum is happy for such a slot to remain useless, so they'd be more likely to not try to interact with it and just suggest a vig.

 

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

Baldrick, where are you generally at reads-wise? Shooting from the hip.

[Snike]

@Baldrick You're ignoring the junko claim of amnesiac. I specifically mentioned that I believed the claim at the time. The turbo thing I suggested because the whole scenario blew up in the last 50 minutes or so of the phase (I literally asked if there were enough people online to do it safely) and I was scumreading those two super hard at the time. And then I said on follow up that I wanted to lynch between networkers otherwise; ie kirsche since athena wasn't going to be turboed that phase. I was talking there about the very end of day where I said for the love of god someone switch wagons.

It was talking about marth. Fair but that doesn't mean that it's omgus; I think that assessment of athena in context makes some sense.

I feel like poking inactives is NAI and scum can do it too, to fake towniness. I don't think it was just scum that would suggest a vig on it, esp since some people (bibbons fable) wanted a lynch on zeus; I advocated vig there because I didn't think the slot was going to contribute anything of value and I stand by that decision even though Makaze is now in the game.

[Snike]

To clarify, I am not slamming makaze by saying that I'm saying that I'm not backtracking on my opinion that zeus should've been shot over d1. though shoot makaze for good fortune

going to go catch up on rp stuff, so I might not be back in thread for a while.

 

[Snike]

Just now, Snike said:

To clarify, I am not slamming makaze by saying that.

I'm saying that I'm not backtracking on my opinion that zeus should've been shot over d1. though shoot makaze for good fortune

going to go catch up on rp stuff, so I might not be back in thread for a while.

 

This should be correct format actually mb

[Jaybee]

3 hours ago, Refa said:

JB is a good lynch target, he soft defended Junko and voted Eclipse while saying that he'd look into Junk if she flipped scum (or the other way around).  If they made sense as scum together, why were you soft defending Junko?????

mobile posting, not going to have anything big until maybe 12++ hours from now when I'm home

caffeinator here don't lynch, you obviously know who i targeted d1 and d2

I was null reading Junk after reading his posts and the case against him, and I used like 3? sentences about it. Eclipse made like 4? Quotewalls about the whole kirsche/junk issue before somewhat null reading Junk, then reluctantly switched over to him. The tone of the switch felt like reluctant scum to bus. It's a bit hard to explain the difference but it's quite clear in my head, I can maybe try to clarify later. 

Aside from this I presume I'm getting voted for a general lack of activity? And for scumreading protective roles? 

[Baldrick]

Your last opinion on kirsche before the junko claim was: "Vote's staying [on junko]. someone case kirsche more for me if they want me to move."

It may just be hindsight but I don't think junko's claim was good enough to dissaude anyone who is scumreading him. What was your rationale for thinking networkers were town/scum? You say "athena wasn't going to be turboed" which implies you still thought athena was scum then, so why would you want to test that rolespec on kirsche first?

BBM and Gaius had both been null in your previous readspost. They were your turbo candidates over athena, did their LD2 leapfrog him, or if was it because they were more likely to be turboed? how do you feel about gaius now, particularly in comparison to jb?

-

Well, I think athena's assessment of soy was fair.

I don't think it's fair to say he was just poking zeus. He was actively trying to engage zeus in conversation and guide him step-by-step into making a read.

-

Omega: my other leaning scums atm are makaze and weapons. The former is on my to-do list, the latter is a gut thing that I can't see how to progress , so I want to talk to arcanite sometime. For the existing wagons, would sheep fable on walrein, cut by jb, interested to see the replies because idk about him.

[Refa]

2 minutes ago, Jaybee said:

I was null reading Junk after reading his posts and the case against him, and I used like 3? sentences about it. Eclipse made like 4? Quotewalls about the whole kirsche/junk issue before somewhat null reading Junk, then reluctantly switched over to him. The tone of the switch felt like reluctant scum to bus. It's a bit hard to explain the difference but it's quite clear in my head, I can maybe try to clarify later. 

Aside from this I presume I'm getting voted for a general lack of activity? And for scumreading protective roles? 

That's fine, but it still bothers me that you specifically read it as reluctant scum to bus.  That seems oddly specific, especially considering you were nullreading the other slot.  Why didn't you interpret it as Scum!Eclipse voting an obvious mislynch, for example?

You're getting voted because people don't have townreads on you and you don't have great interactions w/flipped scum, I'm assuming.  

2 minutes ago, Baldrick said:

It may just be hindsight but I don't think junko's claim was good enough to dissaude anyone who is scumreading him. What was your rationale for thinking networkers were town/scum? You say "athena wasn't going to be turboed" which implies you still thought athena was scum then, so why would you want to test that rolespec on kirsche first?

To be honest, Junko's claim got me to reevaluate the slot since I figured it'd be easily provable.  That being said, I thought Snike/Satsuma initially said the claim was null?  Correct me if I'm wrong here.

[Baldrick]

refa: what snoyke said at the time is that they wanted junko investigated. which I think suggests they didn't believe the claim? Anyway, it's a different reasoning to what you and makaze said about it being easily confirmed.

Speaking of makaze, you said you would never lynch junko's claim, but kirsche had claimed networker, which is also confirmable. What do you consider the difference between their claims?

[Baldrick]

ebwop at makaze: or would you also have lynched junko, regardless of claim, if you thought he was scum floundering?

[Makaze]

2 minutes ago, Baldrick said:

refa: what snoyke said at the time is that they wanted junko investigated. which I think suggests they didn't believe the claim? Anyway, it's a different reasoning to what you and makaze said about it being easily confirmed.

Speaking of makaze, you said you would never lynch junko's claim, but kirsche had claimed networker, which is also confirmable. What do you consider the difference between their claims?

Assuming you were talking to me. Networker is confirmable and a viable scum role (I would expect one town and one wolf networker). However Junko's claim, if true, was almost certainly town or ITP. I didn't exactly consider either claim clearing, but Refa helped convince me we could afford to wait -- which I had wanted to do anyway because I wanted to lynch eclipse (you).

[Makaze]

2 minutes ago, Baldrick said:

ebwop at makaze: or would you also have lynched junko, regardless of claim, if you thought he was scum floundering?

Correct.

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Baldrick said:

refa: what snoyke said at the time is that they wanted junko investigated. which I think suggests they didn't believe the claim? Anyway, it's a different reasoning to what you and makaze said about it being easily confirmed.

Speaking of makaze, you said you would never lynch junko's claim, but kirsche had claimed networker, which is also confirmable. What do you consider the difference between their claims?

It's provable but it's hard to get a read on if its use is townie or scummy, if that makes sense.  I wouldn't feel like I fucked up for lynching it.  I figured at worst, Scum!Junk would be forced to make suboptimal kill choices and it'd be easy to expose depending on who flipped.

[Makaze]

I am currently quotewalling. Mention me if you need a response before I'm done.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

So we have Jaybee as the caffeinator, and Weapons who can announce at SOD. 2 roles who can generate discussion at times no one else can.

inb4Snikerolespecs

[Baldrick]

The first paragraph was at refa, the second was at mak, it's very stream of consciousness.

gdi mak why do you have to be so reasonable. I guess I should reread via to see if that makes sense.

I don't think there's anything in jb/warponite's roles.

[Snike]

@Baldrick My Last post yeah but then you're ignoring what satsuma is saying; like specifically we went claim's null;  and then we did some thinking; I bought the claim after the weird-roleaction details and told satsuma to move the vote; I was also in the mindset that one of networkers was scum at the time, so if kirsche flipped scum that would probably clean junko/athena and vice-versa. It became clear as the day went on that lynch wasn't going to happen, and I had a massive paranoia attack in the last 24 hours or so of the game. Like specifically with junko if you look at my reads wall I said he's probably scum but there are soo many scumreads on that wagon at the time of writing.

I picked BBM and gaius because they were two of the people on the eclipse wagon and I felt the worst about them at the end of day.  So yes it would be their LD2 that bothered me. And particularly at that point in time gaius who I felt like was acting like a lyncher. Re: Athena:There was also no way in hell to turbo athena but at that point in time I was starting to doubt a little and he wasn't one of the ones on the speedwagon onto eclipse.

There's also the fact that I was viewed as tunneling athena; do you think a crazy turbo idea would be going back to the tunnel?

To clarify on rolespec,  BBM brought up the thought D1 that it could be 1 and 1 because the network's not a mason; it's just oc. That could just as easily be used by scum to pocket certain members of town out of thread or otherwise hamper the organization of the town. I am also a little colored because just last game was a setup with a scum neighbor in play (which I subbed into).

@OmegaI speculate that you think I'm going to say they can't both be scum. I think the slots could both be scum, with those roles being add-ons. I mean scum announcer has been a thing beforeand moreover caffeinator could be a good fakeclaim role. NAI tl;dr

@Jaybee why did you insomn gaius? And what's your character (If you haven't outed, for via)?

[Alette]

I'm going to say right now as I finish up my catch up that I have Fable as top town. He's being very townie over the past two days and I mindmelded with his reads as I caught up. I think voting him is scummy too.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

On 4/12/2018 at 4:56 PM, SB. said:

Day 1.Almost Deadline Votals
athena_57 (5): Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy, Shinori, eclipse, Fenrir
Bartozio (5): Jaybee, WeaponsofMassConstruction, BBM, Zkirsche, athena57
Magnificence Incarnate (3): Walrein, vi-astra, Bartozio
Junk (2): Magnificence Incarnate, Refa
zeus_112 (2): Bibbon, Fable
Jaybee (1): Nightmare
Zkirsche (1): Junk
Shinori (1): Elieson
Bibbon (1): zeus_112
Fable (1): Eurykins

Not Voting: Eärendil

You have ~1 hour left in the day. With 22 alive, it takes 8 to lynch and 15 to hammer.

This was near deadline. Bart flipped V, and Marth/myself is V. Shortly after this, Nightmare votes Junko, then moves to Bartozio after SB announces that deadline's in 30 minutes. Snike votes him next, then Fable, then Fenrir, And Refa hammers. I'll note that Nightmare voted Junko at a time that made him a 3-man wagon and alllmost viable to be lynched. Mm. I'm mostly bringing this up as food for thought, because this was the votecount before the scramble to secure a lynch.

If athena is villa, then damn, that D1 was fuckin rough and wolves were dunking on us pretty hard and/orvillagewaskillingitself.

Baldrick, just so I understand your approach, you've read the end of D2, D3, and decided that Snike/Satsuma is the scummiest player?