We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[Makaze]

That said, when I get into Athena's head I think that Athena as ITP DOES make some sense, because he did townread Shinori, despite Shinori having scummy cases on him.

I think this means Athena genuinely doesn't know others' alignments, and it explains a lot about why I townread him. His solving is genuine. He speaks what he really thinks without a lot of agenda, and I think he is playing optimally as any alignment. I have to say, I'm surprised this is his second game, because he has played a better scum, town or itp than most of the players here. I don't mean that insultingly, I'm just impressed at how well he has handled the pressure and remained consensus town without messing up in a big way. It would be really nice if this is how we caught him, because I don't think we could do it otherwise.

[Alette]

If fable's a wolf than i'm going to be really upset, but i think he is town.

[Refa]

Man, I was scumreading Athena on D4 and people were like "nooooo Refa he's a bad lynch, let's lynch Snike instead".

[Makaze]

18 minutes ago, Refa said:

Mafia reasons are "I don't want to get NK'd by the ITP, so I'm claiming Role Bomb" lol.

Also, by this same logic, both Marth's initial claim and Omega's re-claim are bad for the same reasons, but made a million times worse because of timing and absolutely no solving logic behind the claim. What's more, Marth/Omega's role would be a million times more useful than Fable's rolebomb, so there is absolutely no reason to waste it when you aren't even being seriously considered for lynches.

Explain how you can just fling this argument for Fable but ignore it for Omega.

[Refa]

Just now, Makaze said:

Also, by this same logic, both Marth's initial claim and Omega's re-claim are bad for the same reasons, but made a million times worse because of timing and absolutely no solving logic behind the claim. What's more, Marth/Omega's role would be a million times more useful than Fable's rolebomb, so there is absolutely no reason to waste it when you aren't even being seriously considered for lynches.

Explain how you can just fling this argument for Fable but ignore it for Omega.

I can buy Marth making suboptimal plays, also Omega has better interactions with flipped mafia.  Also, generally an informed minority is going to know when to claim better than town lol.  You keep on saying he cleared Walrein, but he clearly has done no such thing.  The only thing he did was help delay a Walrein lynch so we could lynch Snike.  Snike was town, so that is not telling in any way, especially since he seems to be okay w/lynching or killing Walrein today.

[Refa]

Ask yourself this: What was the end result of Fable's claim?  Did it make us less likely to lynch Walrein?  No.  It just made Fable look townier.

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, Refa said:

I can buy Marth making suboptimal plays, also Omega has better interactions with flipped mafia.  Also, generally an informed minority is going to know when to claim better than town lol.  You keep on saying he cleared Walrein, but he clearly has done no such thing.  The only thing he did was help delay a Walrein lynch so we could lynch Snike.  Snike was town, so that is not telling in any way, especially since he seems to be okay w/lynching or killing Walrein today.

You're looking at results again. He was TRYING to clear Walrein. goddamn it man, read my words

what people are trying to do when they make a post and what actually happens, or what they think in the next post can be different

you're just looking at results and ignoring anything that contradicts it

[Makaze]

Just now, Refa said:

Ask yourself this: What was the end result of Fable's claim?  Did it make us less likely to lynch Walrein?  No.  It just made Fable look townier.

Doesn't matter. If I can't imagine him even considering doing it, or what would have given him the idea to do it, then it isn't what happened. You're not considering him as a rational being. You're just looking at the results and assuming the worst without thinking about how likely it is that they would actually think to do such a thing rationally.

[Blitz]

btw, what is a Bookie, I am gonna make my sorta analysis post soon and go to sleep

you may find me after work tomorrow, depending on how work goes. Tomorrow is the estimate due day, so, may not be around until after

[Makaze]

You're basically suggesting that any time someone does something that makes them look towny, they must have been doing it INTENDING to look towny.

That's bullshit. It just is. The entire point of why it looks towny is that you CAN read the intent and TELL THAT THEY AREN'T TRYING.

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, Blitz said:

btw, what is a Bookie, I am gonna make my sorta analysis post soon and go to sleep

you may find me after work tomorrow, depending on how work goes. Tomorrow is the estimate due day, so, may not be around until after

Bets on who dies that night, if right, gains a vig for next night.

[Makaze]

It's like... "What if he's Mafia, but he doesn't know he's Mafia, so he thinks of things that he would only think of when he doesn't already know the answer? Think about it man"

It's beyond ridiculous to consider this.

[Blitz]

Okay, role analysis, this may be completely useless, but who cares, this is me being myself

 

Town flipped roles:

1. Via - 1 shot cop (that is all that matters anyways, IMO). Has to do a lot of things just to gain it and only 2 chances of getting it and is a OS, so, I would assume this role doesn't need a counter

2. Snike/Mr. Gundam - Vanilla. Pretty sure this does not need a counter

3. Kaoz - hook+doc, however doesn't prevent killing roles from acting. I assume this is to prevent ITP (who I am guessing is an SK variant?) and mafia (more near lategame for maf members) members from being caught easily. The point of time I am in, I am assuming this role is not strong enough to stop 2 killing forces every night and town has some other power role that can do something more useful than the previous 2 roles up there...

4. Mack - martyr who cannot be protected. So, basically the town safeguard, who also can die for his target. This shows mafia probably has multiple messing roles. This role kinda covers up for the 2nd kill issue that Kaoz needed back up on, however, does not fully do it due to lack of being able to be protected. I would assume some other role exists, probably OS that can protect

(Not trying to form a defense, but I can see my role working well with both these roles to stop kills)

5. Barto - Reflexive disabler. High risk, very high reward. It can in theory block mafia or SK from acting the night after. It can also ruin the roles of townies... I would say this makes up for protective role shortage mentioned for Kaoz/Mack

6. Eury - JOAT with unknown roles. Not having any idea on what each role will do is bad. It could be the best role in the game, but it certainly is not more useful in effectiveness than a vanilla. Should not need a counter

7. BBM - insomniac. Slightly better than a vanilla, but very slightly

8. Arcanite - announcer. slightly worse than an insomniac. Surely better than a vanill.... not really

 

 

Flipped Scum:

1. Junko - compulsive roleblocker - the compulsive IMO is a disadvantage for being caught by roles like tracker/watcher. Makes me think those roles are more likely town. The mass hook is really powerful, but needs two people from faction dead... 

2. Shinori - inventor with hijack/vanillizer/immunity to hijack/roleblocks along with a 3 shot delayed strongman. Strongman works well against the doctor roles and the 3 roles work very well to look townie. Except the hijack, but I would think saving that for a buddy would be more productive. Roles that can counter well would be cop types. Watcher/tracker would also help. 

3. JB - rogue and janitor - blocks people from targeting self, blocks people being killed from targeting self. 

Analysis on scum role, every role blocks or redirects in some way. Shinori is the special protection destroyer while JB creates mischief. Yes, info role is missing from maf side, but do they need it? They have enough mischief and blocks on their side, IMO Though, I would say there is a little too much and town needs better roles. I am gonna need to read up on the claimed roles sometime later, I need to sleep now.

BUT, I do want to say, the SK probably has immunity to roleblocks to protect against the mafia and a good townie sounding role to blend in to town. I would not assume it to be a neighnorizer or a vanilla esq role, it should be something better, IMO. Based on this theory, I do not see Fable as an ITP SK. The ITP's passive should be hookproof. It also should not have extra kills on it, but bookie could be a good fake claim, no?

Will try to rest of analysis tomorrow... (I am basically throwing around role specs, which I love doing)

[Refa]

Just now, Makaze said:

You're looking at results again. He was TRYING to clear Walrein. goddamn it man, read my words

what people are trying to do when they make a post and what actually happens, or what they think in the next post can be different

you're just looking at results and ignoring anything that contradicts it

Even after he claimed, he was still scumreading Walrein TMK.  He only stopped scumreading Walrein when he reread.

I mean, yeah, he could have made a mistake.  I'm not saying that it's 100% what he did, but when you say stuff like "That narrative is better than "He did something I wouldn't do, so he had mafia reasons, but I couldn't tell you what they were"." BTW, I don't think I ever said that "this is most likely to be a scum claim".  Then you asked me why I thought he was more likelier to be scum than Omega and I answered.  You think his claim is townie because of his intentions, that's fine.  I just don't view that as that telling because I've claimed similarly as scum in the past.  I'm not going to scumread him based off of his claim, but if game is not over, I am going to reread his slot because I don't view the way he claimed as particularly telling.  That's all.

3 minutes ago, Makaze said:

You're basically suggesting that any time someone does something that makes them look towny, they must have been doing it INTENDING to look towny.

That's bullshit. It just is. The entire point of why it looks towny is that you CAN read the intent and TELL THAT THEY AREN'T TRYING.

Nah, it could have been an honest mistake.  I'm saying why Scum!Fable would claim in that situation.

Okay man.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

Mak, I've been trying to solve, have talked about nearly every player, etc. You should have read me V after the Marth defense, or when you pulled the early entrance post of mine, etc. We're 198 pages in. There have been plenty of things I've done to help the village when I could have shat on it multiple times and no one would have cared. Do not blame me for your inability to read me, as my constant resistance to you has largely been for the good of village. I've made pools/posts where I suggested directions that did not involve killing. I probably could have CFD'd you yesterday, but chose not to in the interest of cooperating with a V read of mine.

[Refa]

*but when you stay stuff like "QUOTE", I'm like "uh...there is a perfectly valid reason for Scum!Fable to claim in that situation lol".

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

did not involve killing you first*

In addition, the people who have played with me most here/know me best read me V. You are just wrong about the "not playing to solve" or whatever, and are either just lying, or do not understand my approach to the game.

[Alette]

3 minutes ago, Refa said:

Even after he claimed, he was still scumreading Walrein TMK.  He only stopped scumreading Walrein when he reread.

I mean, yeah, he could have made a mistake.  I'm not saying that it's 100% what he did, but when you say stuff like "That narrative is better than "He did something I wouldn't do, so he had mafia reasons, but I couldn't tell you what they were"." BTW, I don't think I ever said that "this is most likely to be a scum claim".  Then you asked me why I thought he was more likelier to be scum than Omega and I answered.  You think his claim is townie because of his intentions, that's fine.  I just don't view that as that telling because I've claimed similarly as scum in the past.  I'm not going to scumread him based off of his claim, but if game is not over, I am going to reread his slot because I don't view the way he claimed as particularly telling.  That's all.

Nah, it could have been an honest mistake.  I'm saying why Scum!Fable would claim in that situation.

Okay man.

Scum fable would be more careful with a claim then you say in this quote 

[Alette]

Refa have you ever played with fable as scum?

[Refa]

Nope!  Have I ever played w/Fable at all?  I don't think so.

[Makaze]

5 minutes ago, Refa said:

Even after he claimed, he was still scumreading Walrein TMK.  He only stopped scumreading Walrein when he reread.

I mean, yeah, he could have made a mistake.  I'm not saying that it's 100% what he did, but when you say stuff like "That narrative is better than "He did something I wouldn't do, so he had mafia reasons, but I couldn't tell you what they were"." BTW, I don't think I ever said that "this is most likely to be a scum claim".  Then you asked me why I thought he was more likelier to be scum than Omega and I answered.  You think his claim is townie because of his intentions, that's fine.  I just don't view that as that telling because I've claimed similarly as scum in the past.  I'm not going to scumread him based off of his claim, but if game is not over, I am going to reread his slot because I don't view the way he claimed as particularly telling.  That's all.

Nah, it could have been an honest mistake.  I'm saying why Scum!Fable would claim in that situation.

Okay man.

I mean

From my point of view

You read it, you either get the impression it's a fake claim or you don't

You aren't of two minds about it

You might change your mind later, but I took it as you scumreading it

Because you can't get into someones head 2 different ways. they only had 1 way of thinking about it

so point blank

which impression do you get from the posts?

[Alette]

6 minutes ago, Refa said:

*but when you stay stuff like "QUOTE", I'm like "uh...there is a perfectly valid reason for Scum!Fable to claim in that situation lol".

If you have never played with fable as scum then why are you making such an assumption here? 

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Makaze said:

I mean

From my point of view

You read it, you either get the impression it's a fake claim or you don't

You aren't of two minds about it

You might change your mind later, but I took it as you scumreading it

Because you can't get into someones head 2 different ways. they only had 1 way of thinking about it

so point blank

which impression do you get from the posts?

I think the claim is real, regardless of his alignment.  I think the way he claimed is null.  I'm more apprehensive about Fable because of his interactions w/flipped mafia and especially his Arcanite defense on D3.  Like overall, I'd say the slot is more likely to be town but he's like my weakest townread.

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Alette said:

If you have never played with fable as scum then why are you making such an assumption here? 

i'm not making a meta read lol, it could apply to any scum player.

[Alette]

Just now, Refa said:

i'm not making a meta read lol, it could apply to any scum player.

No, fake claiming is something that I think can get complex depending on the player. I'm not really a fan of this