We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Alette said:

All he stated was kill can't be mafia, but not the reason for it. 

 

 Control + F "Kirsche" on this page.

[Beru]

5 minutes ago, Alette said:

I only had that one shot

ok

full vig not impossible

actually do you know if it's a 1 mafia per 4 players standard here as well

because 22 players means 5 mafia and ITP when town has more power or 4 mafia and ITP when Not Town has more power to me. but I just started playing here like 4 hours ago (；´∀｀) ya

[Refa]

Man, I sure do love it when the entire graveyard is reading the game!

 

[EvanManManMan]

5 minutes ago, Beru said:

maybe they're just acting in advance of a town investigative in general

Hydra godfather? I can see it

[Arcanite]

eats popcorn 

[Beru]

1 minute ago, Refa said:

Man, I sure do love it when the entire graveyard is reading the game!

 

owo

[EvanManManMan]

6 minutes ago, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

That's three levels of WIFOM and more like a waste of time, in my opinion.

We claimed our role way back, as soon as Snike subbed in.

 

tfw everyone refers to Snike almost like a separate slot

Extra levels of WIFOM helps scum use WIFOM arguments as a defense.

 

Claiming your role back then supports my theory of scum planning to fake claim rolecop

[EvanManManMan]

I probably shouldn't be hounding on the WIFOM argument like I am. I'm gonna stop

[Baldrick]

I'm in the middle of replying but what's the story about scum faking rolecop to clear Snike? Wouldn't that just make Snike look worse when the fakeclaimer flipped?

[EvanManManMan]

Just now, Baldrick said:

I'm in the middle of replying but what's the story about scum faking rolecop to clear Snike? Wouldn't that just make Snike look worse when the fakeclaimer flipped?

The spice comes in the fact that the fake claimer probably didn't claim.

 

Of course this is just a theory and shouldn't be taken very seriously but I don't trust the miller claim regardless.

[Baldrick]

I don't know what you mean by spice, but without any evidence this just seems like fearmongering the claim to me.

[Baldrick]

*evidence that mafia were planning to do that

[Refa]

8 minutes ago, Beru said:

actually do you know if it's a 1 mafia per 4 players standard here as well

because 22 players means 5 mafia and ITP when town has more power or 4 mafia and ITP when Not Town has more power to me. but I just started playing here like 4 hours ago (；´∀｀) ya

Actually what the fuck, it probably is 17/4/1.  At 16/5/1, town could mislynch on D1, misvig, continuously lynch scum for the next two cycles and be in potential *YLO on Cycle 4 (and it swings even further WRT LG's role, although I assumed it never went off).  Judging from the flipped town roles, town is not that strong at all (and I would consider my own role to be no exception in that regard).  Why the fuck did we think it was five scum, I'm actually going to blame scum for that.

Probably need to rethink things joy.

@Baldrick You're here and town, what do you think about numbers

[Refa]

CYCLE ONE
16/5/1
15/5/1- Alette misvigs
14/5/1- Mislynch
12/5/1- Two scum sided kills

CYCLE TWO
12/5/1
12/4/1- Scum lynched
10/4/1- Two scum sided kills

CYCLE THREE
10/4/1
10/3/1- Scum lynched
8/3/1- Two scum sided kills

CYCLE FOUR
8/3/1
8/2/1- Scum lynched
6/2/1- Two scum sided kills

CYCLE FIVE
6/2/1
6/1/1- Scum lynched
4/1/1- Two scum sided kills

CYCLE SIX
Too lazy to continue

This is how I figured the game would play out.  Maybe the SK doesn't have a kill on N1 but otherwise the rest seems to check out.

[Baldrick]

4 anti-town is too little, 7 would be too many. 16/5/1 seems more balanced since there's the possibility of crossfire/doublekill/Jailer saves.

But I don't think it's worth thinking about until there's four mafia flips..

[Snike]

I think Makaze's comment about shinori never questioning me is wrong especially when you look at stuff like the bottom of page 41 and the follow up. 

Which he omitted.

I find it suspicious that he calls my shinori stuff bad when he is ignoring the context of kirsche asking me to comment on shinori stuff. His framing of it being that I hadn't interacted in depth with shinori is true to an extent but that content was directed at kirsche before he subbed out.

I also find it kind of suspicious that he immediately 180ed on me being town following the mislynch when he had , and I quote,  a "hard, unbreakable" read that if arc flipped town, I would be town too.

This in addition to his amazing inaccuracy for lynch choice leads me to believe that he is scum, and I really should've trusted the zeus associations as buddying instead of weak towncred before writing him off as town.

I also think Beru needs to be looked at for suggesting the notion that the second kill is not a serial killer after the martyr and jailor both flipped this morning. both of whom were all but cleared.

And alette could be third party with the dayvig; she has been tunneling on me without really providing too much else in terms of reads. However I doubt she is mafia and she should not be focused on tomorrow regardless.

Lastly, I think the networkers need to be reevaluated. I simply cannot believe that it was only one scum on the Bartozio lynch. I cannot. And I don't think it's scum fable, which leaves me to think alette or (more likely) one of the networkers.

That being said, I believe that there is little chance that this day does not end without this slot's lynch, so I don't think I am going to bother arguing in depth. It is too much effort and so far my reads have been mostly inaccurate. We also have a mislynch, and I would say this slot has generated a library of associatives, so it is not the Worst Lynch.

So here is what I am going to ask each and everyone of you now: When I flip town, who is scum? What are your plans for the next dayphase? We should plan ahead instead of just arguing back or forth on whether the preordained lynch is scum or not and once there is a conclusion, we should hammer early. These days are really dragging on and I don't think especially with what limited information we have that going the full 72 hours when a consensus lynch is on the table is a good idea.

[Refa]

20 minutes ago, Baldrick said:

4 anti-town is too little, 7 would be too many. 16/5/1 seems more balanced since there's the possibility of crossfire/doublekill/Jailer saves.

But I don't think it's worth thinking about until there's four mafia flips..

Fair.  Why do you think Killthestory could be scum?

[Refa]

16 minutes ago, Snike said:

I think Makaze's comment about shinori never questioning me is wrong especially when you look at stuff like the bottom of page 41 and the follow up. 

Which he omitted.

I find it suspicious that he calls my shinori stuff bad when he is ignoring the context of kirsche asking me to comment on shinori stuff. His framing of it being that I hadn't interacted in depth with shinori is true to an extent but that content was directed at kirsche before he subbed out.

I also find it kind of suspicious that he immediately 180ed on me being town following the mislynch when he had , and I quote,  a "hard, unbreakable" read that if arc flipped town, I would be town too.

This in addition to his amazing inaccuracy for lynch choice leads me to believe that he is scum, and I really should've trusted the zeus associations as buddying instead of weak towncred before writing him off as town.

I also think Beru needs to be looked at for suggesting the notion that the second kill is not a serial killer after the martyr and jailor both flipped this morning. both of whom were all but cleared.

And alette could be third party with the dayvig; she has been tunneling on me without really providing too much else in terms of reads. However I doubt she is mafia and she should not be focused on tomorrow regardless.

Lastly, I think the networkers need to be reevaluated. I simply cannot believe that it was only one scum on the Bartozio lynch. I cannot. And I don't think it's scum fable, which leaves me to think alette or (more likely) one of the networkers.

But M'kaze is town...Scum M'kaze would expect a mislynch and wouldn't need to change his reads on the following day.

Why is Beru scummy for that?

Why would ITP have an NK and a dayvig, that's bullshit and leaves town with far too little kill power.

Which networker?

##Unvote

[Beru]

I mean it was from my own personal pov as "if I was ITP I would have never shot shinori lol" but apparently y'all were townreading him ?_? at the time so. I guess

it's not not worth it to argue in depth snike. you can do it. even with 11? alive? which gives us a lot of room every dodged mislynch is worth it

[Baldrick]

41 minutes ago, EvanManManMan said:

 He wanted to cfd onto eclipse, a wagon with 2 flipped scum, but decided to keep his vote on Kirsche as opposed to Junko, flipped scum. The way the Kirsche's wagon formed makes me think that he is town. The only argument for Kill being scum here is that 2 flipped scum counterwagoned Eclipse, but they would have to be more than desperate to pull off a move like that. Snike also supported and eclipsd cfd which prompts some degree of buddying. He probably kept his vote on Kirsche though because he knew they were town and were more lilely to be mislynched. If Kirsche/Kill was scum, the wagons would be split between Junko/Eclipse instead of Junko/Kirsche.

Was going to dispute that, but Soy already did.

At the bottom of page 67, the wagons being 7 junko, 7 kirsche, 3 eclipse, Shinori voted for eclipse. He didn't seem to mind speaking out against the junko lynch and risking heat when he flipped, so it's actually weird that he didn't secure kirsche.

41 minutes ago, EvanManManMan said:

 Can somebody tell me why Makaze is not being pressured because his vote on Kirsche is highly incriminating. If It's something I haven't read please tell me because right now this is a decent scum read for me. Via's vote is weird but their ability is more than likely town and they don't seem like a player that is very confident in their reads.

He'd been objecting to both junko and kirsche in favour of eclipse. I think his switch is justified, even if it is a snap decision, because eclipse had no momentum. And I think that as mafia, given Junko's flip, he would be wary of suddenly wanting to lynch kirsche even if he had a good reason.

41 minutes ago, EvanManManMan said:

My slot should honestly be cleared based on this VC. Scum has no reason to clump together on a mislynch wagon when a mislynch wagon is already viable. While JB and Shinori were not online at EoD2, Gaius was, and he showed doubt to the lead wagons. If he was scum he would have taken the opportunity in front of him and voted for Kirsche or even Junko. His refusal to vote for one of them here should lock him as town.

So if you were mafia, Shinori would have two buddies on the eclipse wagon, and wouldn't want to vote with them.

In that case, why would Snike suggesting a CFD on eclipse be scummy? Since if he was mafia, he would know that there are two mafia on the wagon

41 minutes ago, EvanManManMan said:

 

Walrein's vote on Omega is weird and I didn't see it in my read but it can easily be solved with more knowledge on Omega's alignment.

I'll keep that in mind if Omega flips before you do.

[Iris]

Day 4.6 - Votals
Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy (3): Makaze, Alette, EvanManManMan
EvanManManMan (1): Omega.
Omega. (1): Killthestory

Not Voting: Everyone Else

You have ~67.5 hours left in the day. With 13 alive, it takes 5 to lynch and 9 to hammer.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

1 hour ago, EvanManManMan said:

Spicy Tinfoil: Snike/Satsuma claimed miller hoping a scum buddy would claim rolecop but they died before they claimed.

LMFAO!!

This literally made me lol. Well done.

I'm not doing shit tonight in this thread. I just wanna say Snike, chill out bro, pretty sure you live today.

I'll post later and give y'all the play.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

##Vote: Omega.

[Snike]

@Beru I've spent 116 pages on and off posting; I just finished exams, and it is not like people read my content most of the time anyways. And I've been completely wrong on most of my pushes so far with in depth other than defending eclipse.

@Refa On Makaze: I understand that but I feel like there's something to be said when he is consistently wrong on lynches he cases and I feel tonally especially with like end of d2 sigh and the beat your asses that he is acting different from what I remember. I also know his case on me is wrong and it omitted that first point which I now legitimately think exculpates me if taken with Shinori's post on 29. Look at the word that is oddly capitalized. Does that look like an interaction with someone who has knowledge of the scumteam?

Lastly, I really do think zeus associations look bad for that slot. IIRC all known scum slots were defending it.

on Beru: I think suspecting town vig after double protective death is ??? and I think it serves to stir the pot on the itp spec when it can be used actually hunting anti town. I also have reservations over that role.

On Alette: Fair point. In which case I think she needs to push other cases while the vote on me is happening. It bothers me the depths of her tunneling I guess that is why I brought up that option.

On networkers: I really don't know. I had kirsche as poe but I really feel like kill is town tonally and contentwise. I don't think scum would townread a suspected slot who suspects them in poe listings. I would say gut athena but I think village consensus is that he's clear.

[Refa]

what