We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[Baldrick]

5 minutes ago, Beru said:

wheeee I'm helping

You definitely haven't misread anything? In Anitheroes, somebody misread their role PM and created an accidental 1v1.

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Baldrick said:

You definitely haven't misread anything? In Anitheroes, somebody misread their role PM and created an accidental 1v1.

Oh God, don't remind me.  It is worth asking SB/Iris if your results contain any mistakes as well.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

I say let Blitz read and post.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

17 minutes ago, Refa said:

BTW, we're just waiting for Athena to post right?  Because after that, I am so done with this phase (barring some amazing revelations).

I have to take a step back and make sure I'm good with the pool I posted, in case someone's deep. Not sure if there's been enough discourse on this from others, don't think so.

I mean, at this point, we have Makaze saying I'm 2nd likeliest to be mafia and I think someone else tried to say that shit yesterday too. Like, holy shit.

[Alette]

Ok, I'm kind of annoyed at myself and it's mostly because they (snike + soy) just seemed scummy imo. The way they played in the hydra was something I don't see as town. Anyways to those doubting me, I wouldn't just shoot a mafia partner for town cred. 

[Killthestory]

13 minutes ago, Alette said:

Ok, I'm kind of annoyed at myself and it's mostly because they (snike + soy) just seemed scummy imo. The way they played in the hydra was something I don't see as town. Anyways to those doubting me, I wouldn't just shoot a mafia partner for town cred. 

is that it?

[Alette]

7 minutes ago, Killthestory said:

is that it?

well no, i'm trying to think about the game state so far and it's just like "Mak helped me after my tunnel. Does that make him bad now, especially with his bad votes so far?" and I also am trying to rethink about walrein because i can't really thin read him town anymore. 

[Killthestory]

yeah alette isnt a deepwolf. sorry all.

[Alette]

Walrein is basically not really exhibiting anything I know of his scum play and that is why i was thin reading him as town. Now it's more like there could have been him keeping up the impression he does as town in games i've played with him. Scum him imo is loose in content and i wasn't really seeing that here.

[Beru]

2 hours ago, Baldrick said:

You definitely haven't misread anything? In Anitheroes, somebody misread their role PM and created an accidental 1v1.

nope

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

5 hours ago, Refa said:

OKAY SO can we talk about the kill missing part?  Did both scum just NK Via?  It's either that or mafia hit an SK BPV (or maybe other way around, whatever).

Something I've been thinking about with regards to Wals/Blitz is...if you're last mafia/ITP/whatever, you'd supposedly have a chance to increase the KP in this game, and mow down more villas. Instead, he motivated you after you claimed to him. 

Scenarios:

A) Walrein is V, read you V, and helped his bro against thread consensus

B) Walrein is W/ITP, and I guess is trying to get towncred? That's pretty weak wolfing, though

C) Walrein is W/ITP, he uses your chat to excuse himself from motivating Evan who might blast his ass

Sucks y'all couldn't discord. Did he say anything last night of worth?

[Makaze]

I am in favor of killing Walrein for the purpose of solving on top of just mixed tone reads and the incredibly opportunistic way he jumped on the Arcanite and Snike lynches. "Oh my god that's wolfy" -- @Refa you yourself quoted these and said "I'd expect him to at least adjust, but all he did was say "Well I don't know his meta" and then kept on voting". These reasons for Walrein are not invalid because of his claim being real. What do you have to say?

I think you genuinely are having these reads, but you keep contradicting yourself by letting certain role actions overrule post content and certain post content overrule role actions. You aren't considering the whole picture on any of the players in the PoE, and instead clear one for one reason and suspect one for another, and not "this whole player looks worse than this whole other one". I will explain once again why Evan is never Mafia, from my perspective. On top of his Bookie claim, which I feel strongly convicted about, I cleared Evan based on his actual content before anything.

This is how he responded to me saying "This is a bad post. Just saying."

On 4/22/2018 at 11:56 AM, EvanManManMan said:

That's my genuine thought process. If you're asking specifically for a name then I guess Walrein because I have no reason to think otherwise. Beru is being bad by not giving content so I wouldn't eliminate them. You also seem to be convinced that Snike should be lynched today despite having very wishy washy thoughts and not voting them so you are a candidate as well.

Tonally I believe this is how I would respond as town, and I completely buy the way he is approaching my response. He's not defensive and he's not suspecting me. He's engaging. He's inviting more responses. This seems like a town motivation.

When I asked him who he would vig, without any hesitation he immediately gave me this list.

On 4/22/2018 at 12:07 PM, EvanManManMan said:

It was stated that when a faction is eliminated it is announced

If Snike is the last mafia I would shoot Omega

If Snike is mafia and mafia still remains I would shoot Walrein

If Snike is ITP then I still probably shoot Walrein

If Snike is town I'm shooting you.

I believe this shows genuine conviction and strongly leans in favor of him having a solving process instead of "How do I convince people I am town" mindset.

When I said I take back what I said, instead of just saying "So now you're townreading me? Just like that?", he had a question about the specifics.

On 4/22/2018 at 12:25 PM, EvanManManMan said:

What are you taking back?

When someone suggested that I was driving the game, he responded this way.

I strongly believe this comes from a town who is genuinely reading me and correcting another town player.

On 4/22/2018 at 4:45 PM, EvanManManMan said:

What no. Plenty of people are playing the game. Just because Makaze is the most active and seemingly the most invested doesn't mean the town physically can't function without them.

He goes on this speculation about Snike based on rolespec that seems to be genuine processing of balance. I don't think this argument occurs to him to write at this time if he's just faking. I can see the gears turning in his head and he posts this as he comes up with it instead of making things up to say.

On 4/22/2018 at 6:50 PM, EvanManManMan said:

I feel that if Snike/Satsuma is mafia, they are the last mafia. The mafia PRs have been pretty strong and a godfather hydra would suit the grouping pretty well imo. It wouldn't make sense on a setup basis for the hydra to be mafia with another alive player. Therefore I feel there is one mafia left and it is between Snike/Walrein. We should chain lynch them and we have the best chance of hitting mafia and potentially even the ITP.

Then Evan got into an argument with me where I said I don't think my Walrein read makes sense as w/v, but does make sense as w/w (from a purely strategic standpoint). He disagreed with me, and the way he argued suggests that he was genuinely trying to understand what I was saying, and his mind does change about whether I'm faking a scumread or have an actual progression in my thinking.

On 4/23/2018 at 12:06 PM, EvanManManMan said:

46 minutes ago, Makaze said:

I can see this argument. I can't really explain it, but I don't think I would try to pocket him if this was me being Mafia, because I would have every reason to actually read him and expand my PoE for later days. In addition, I have gone to greater lengths to townclear multiple players, so I don't see why I would be different with Walrein here. This makes more sense as a w/w association than anything else, if I'm lying.

It doesn't promote w/w interactions. Your switch on Walrein leads me to one of these conclusions:

1. You are town who just didn't pay attention to anything

2. You are scum that decided giving in and scum reading Walrein was a better play

When I linked my Walrein case:

On 4/23/2018 at 12:20 PM, EvanManManMan said:

The Shinori side of associations is honestly pretty weak.

The Walrein side is mostly hypothetical cases as in it's not hard to place town motivation behind their actions. The most damning thing here was the spontaneous townread of Shinori, but that isn't even that bad when you consider that they could have just forgot to explain and if nobody told them to explain, they wouldn't have merit too. Their laziness is also making me think that laziness had an effect on why their Shinori read remained unexplained

I'm not convinced.

This happened in the middle of our conversation, and while it may null in most cases, I do not think that Evan profits from helping clear Walrein in this way. It's just not necessary to say.

On 4/23/2018 at 12:32 PM, EvanManManMan said:

An ability failing has nothing to do with who he targetted, unless the person is a commuter esque role where they can make all actions against them fail.

He goes on to say this, which suggests he is actually considering a world where I have actual reasons for my reads.

On 4/23/2018 at 12:37 PM, EvanManManMan said:

Your reasons for clearing Walrein were shit. You just said "He is lock town because his tone" and left it at that. Yes it was unique but it was unique for a reason. That being said I want you to rewrite this argument because you make it seem like you cleared Walrein for actual reasons.

He says my Shinori argument is weak earlier and now he says there is no argument for my Shinori side. Shows he has actual reasons for questioning me that are completely believable from the position of someone who didn't see the logic behind what I quoted (instead of knows that I'm town and is just pushing me for no reason).

On 4/23/2018 at 12:43 PM, EvanManManMan said:

You never gave any real evidence on Shinori's side. You just pointed out one progression that seemingly has nothing wrong and another post which doesn't give associations with Walrein.

Idek what Mack was anyways.

He once again argues with me about the philosophy behind pocketing and what I would do. I think this comes from conviction as a player arguing and not from a scum trying to play me argument.

On 4/23/2018 at 12:56 PM, EvanManManMan said:

Pocketing somebody doesn't require high attention to detail. It just requires pandering to your audience. If giving him free towncred is what panders to him then he will do it. I also can't take your defense of "That's not what I would do to pocket him" seriously. Saying you wouldn't do something means nothing. It means absolutely nothing. Why? Because you can simply ignore that statement and do the opposite. This site has better players than I am used to but the one criticism I have is how everybody uses self meta and treats meta like fact. Like no, that's not how it works and mafia is way more complex than that.

Then I lay out my case

On 4/23/2018 at 12:58 PM, EvanManManMan said:

Quote

Uh

The evidence speaks for itself. Shinori shaded Walrein. He did it again. Then very soon after, he denied EVER mentioning Walrein, to eclipse. Then he goes "Why are you focusing on my read of Walrein and not Eury? Huh? Huh?"

Throughout all of this he never asks Walrein any questions, and Walrein doesn't even react to this contradiction. I don't know about you, but if someone had shaded me and then denied it, I'd have at least corrected them and asked "What is your read of me, then?" Instead, Walrein just out of nowhere puts Shinori in their town pile. Walrein has ALSO questioned or commented on all of their other reasons, with much less conspicuous cases.

It's just too weird of an interaction.

I understand if you disagree, but my stance is that every action makes sense from that person's point of view. If this makes sense from Shinori when Walrein is town, there is some logic to how he acted about it.

I have my interpretation. I'd like to hear yours other than "I don't see yours".

If that's the context you failed to give any of that in your post and I would like it rewritten so i can understand what you are saying

He's genuinely reading what I'm saying and reconsidering whether he thinks I am just talking out of my ass or have an actual way of interpreting it.

On 4/23/2018 at 1:51 PM, EvanManManMan said:

Looking at it with the context it just seems as if you are blowing things our of proportion tbh. I kinda get where you draw your conclusion from but I don't agree. I think that you are taling Shinori's posts as more then they are. He never really shaded Walrein and his denial of mentioning them was something that could easily just be human error. I really thinm that you are stretching the truth here.

Then he re-assesses my point of view, believes that I believe it, and decides that it isn't good enough for his standards.

This is a progression from someone who does not know my alignment, so Evan cannot be Mafia, at the least. Not in my world.

I'll explain Fable if you want, but Fable has done literally nothing to make me doubt him, and I seriously get the distinct impression is he actually annoyed with my play from a town perspective and does not show any kind of playfulness, personal agenda, or otherwise non-genuine actions, including his claim. His claim makes perfect sense for when and how he uses it, and I have no reason to think he would make up a fake claim that he thinks is clearing of Walrein just because when it is much better for him as Mafia if Walrein is scum. He could have easily speculated that Walrein was jailed N1 or roleblocked, but he read his role, actually believed that it was why Walrein failed, and claimed it because he was sure that Walrein was town after he claimed.

I don't think this makes sense for Mafia, and I tonally read Fable town at every step of the game. I have ISO'd him multiple times to recheck this. You are wrong about both Evan and Fable.

[Alette]

6 minutes ago, Omega. said:

Something I've been thinking about with regards to Wals/Blitz is...if you're last mafia/ITP/whatever, you'd supposedly have a chance to increase the KP in this game, and mow down more villas. Instead, he motivated you after you claimed to him. 

Scenarios:

A) Walrein is V, read you V, and helped his bro against thread consensus

B) Walrein is W/ITP, and I guess is trying to get towncred? That's pretty weak wolfing, though

C) Walrein is W/ITP, he uses your chat to excuse himself from motivating Evan who might blast his ass

Sucks y'all couldn't discord. Did he say anything last night of worth?

If anything I would call this 3rd party because I don't think this fits his mafia play.

[Makaze]

6 minutes ago, Makaze said:

His claim makes perfect sense for when and how he uses it, and I have no reason to think he would make up a fake claim that he thinks is clearing of Walrein just because when it is much better for him as Mafia if Walrein is scum.

I just realized this wording is nonsense, I meant that it is much better for wolf!Fable not to claim and for Walrein to get scumread while other try to sus out the reason for this failure.

He helped townclear another player for no reason other than being honest and believing that it towncleared him.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

Makaze, if killing Blitz/athena does not end the game, you are wrong about your next pick in me. You tried to pull this "I am 100% confident" shtick on athena when you entered the game, have done it multiple times now, and Refa's POE is fine. You tried to tell me I'm solving in the wrong direction, then proceeded to lynch one of mine and Refa's villareads who was not in our POE who, unsurprisingly, flipped V.

It's not me. If you're V, you need to consider elsewhere if Blitz is V, because even if you're going to pull an "It must be Omega" card, it can't hurt to look elsewhere in case I get lynched down the line and flip V. That said, I kind of don't want to deal with you anymore, and hope Evan just blasts you.

[Alette]

Another thing about this day phase the fact that both Makaze and Walrein are alive is alarming and makaze is tonally townie but is still alive. That is a problem.

[Refa]

9 minutes ago, Omega. said:

Sucks y'all couldn't discord. Did he say anything last night of worth?

Nope!  FWIW, I've been talking to Blitz a decent amount.

@Makaze- Well, content quality wise, I think Blitz would be an easy read for me.  I can get why you'd want to shoot him for POE, and I don't feel as strongly about the slot as I did for Snike, so I wouldn't object I just don't feel comfortable about it.  Oof, wrong about both Evan and Fable.  That would be unfortunate.  I'm open to being wrong about them if Blitz flips scum and game is over, but I would definitely suspect them over Omega, who I'm pretty sure you're wrong about.

5 minutes ago, Makaze said:

I just realized this wording is nonsense, I meant that it is much better for wolf!Fable not to claim and for Walrein to get scumread while other try to sus out the reason for this failure.

He helped townclear another player for no reason other than being honest and believing that it towncleared him.

Personally, I would claim as wolf in that situation to avoid getting NK'd...I don't think the claim thing incriminates Fable, but he's just the townread I feel the least confident about, outside of Walrein.  Wolf!Fable isn't hurt by Walrein getting townread because chances are Walrein would just get lynched/vigged another day anyways (like he is here!).

Like, I'm not scumreading Fable ATM.  But if Athena/Walrein flip and the game is still going on, that's where I'm going to be looking at next (and at Evan).  Omega is never flipping mafia ever, so that's not where I'm going to be looking at.

[Refa]

Just now, Alette said:

Another thing about this day phase the fact that both Makaze and Walrein are alive is alarming and makaze is tonally townie but is still alive. That is a problem.

Makaze/Walrein would definitely be alive as either alignment by this point.  None of the nightkills have made me think "why this person instead of Makaze/Walrein?".

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

When Refa gets NKilled instead of Makaze tonight, remember the dialogue that occurred on this page, and the direction Refa wanted as opposed to Mak.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

##Refa

direction

p196-197

/bookmark

[Makaze]

Just now, Omega. said:

Makaze, if killing Blitz/athena does not end the game, you are wrong about your next pick in me. You tried to pull this "I am 100% confident" shtick on athena when you entered the game, have done it multiple times now, and Refa's POE is fine. You tried to tell me I'm solving in the wrong direction, then proceeded to lynch one of mine and Refa's villareads who was not in our POE who, unsurprisingly, flipped V.

It's not me. If you're V, you need to consider elsewhere if Blitz is V, because even if you're going to pull an "It must be Omega" card, it can't hurt to look elsewhere in case I get lynched down the line and flip V. That said, I kind of don't want to deal with you anymore, and hope Evan just blasts you.

If you are town, I have a lot of trouble believing it because the way you have been playing does not read genuine to me. I mean this. I read your posts. I try to understand them. And it looks like you don't believe what you're saying. I get the opposite impression from other players. I cannot ignore my instincts in cases like this, because they are all I have to go on, and I would rather get beaten by someone who is so good at pretending a town mindset that I empathize with their persona, than someone is town but is not actually trying to win.

I don't believe you are trying to win. You are trying to kill me, and that's your end game. Even if you are town, that's all you care about, and you also can't accept a world where you die and the village wins. You're so vain and unhappy that I cased you that you'd throw the game if it meant you could rub it in my face that I'm not unlynchable. I'm serious. That's how I view your play.

There are many reasons for suspecting you, even outside of these petty, anti-win con, you throwing the game because of your pride reasons. I want to note that this entire thing came up because you made this amazing defense, and I found a very glaring flaw in that defense. Instead of naturally recovering as you would have if it was genuine, you flipped your shit, and have been flipping for literally multiple phases.

You have only stopped flipping it for very sparing moments when you make posts actually addressing me like this one, which read as you trying to pocket me, and nothing else, because you will go back to trying to lynch me in five minutes.

Your entire play style has to change for me to change my mind. Get better at showing me that you are town, or just lay down and stop going OMGUS on a fellow town. It's not helping, and it really doesn't make anyone like you. You're the main reason Via is happy to be out of the game, and I strongly suggest you take that seriously.

2 minutes ago, Alette said:

If anything I would call this 3rd party because I don't think this fits his mafia play.

Yeah, I can see a world where Athena/Walrein are scum/ITP in some order, I just have serious trouble believing that Omega is trying to win unless his ultimate win condition is to survive. Which it would be as ITP. Plus Marth claiming his role when that is PATENTLY anti-town, and PATENTLY pro-ITP. Plus the lying about drawing the NK, because Omega claimed the role himself, and lost the no knowledge of claim alibi. Plus the opportunistic following of any wagon, including ones I (the person he has been trying to kill for phases -- even when by his own admission he is townreading me) am the reason for.

His play makes no sense from the perspective of someone who is trying to solve the game, and he only seems to actually latch onto anything reasonable when it is mechanically relevant, because he doesn't actually care about tone or alignments -- he's not trying to solve the game.

If he's not ITP he is intentionally not helping, which I would see as worse, because it is fundamentally impossible to read someone who is intentionally not trying, and you should never sign up to a game you are not going to play, especially not to sub in and trash the game by not playing.

I get strong feelings that some people are trying to solve the game. 

Omega is squarely not that person.

[Alette]

3 minutes ago, Refa said:

Makaze/Walrein would definitely be alive as either alignment by this point.  None of the nightkills have made me think "why this person instead of Makaze/Walrein?".

If I was mafia, makaze would be dead by now despite his bad pushes because he would eventually correct himself imo

[Makaze]

3 minutes ago, Alette said:

If I was mafia, makaze would be dead by now despite his bad pushes because he would eventually correct himself imo

Thank you.

[Refa]

4 minutes ago, Omega. said:

When Refa gets NKilled instead of Makaze tonight, remember the dialogue that occurred on this page, and the direction Refa wanted as opposed to Mak.

NKing me is SUICIDE man, unless scum has a Ninja.

3 minutes ago, Alette said:

If I was mafia, makaze would be dead by now despite his bad pushes because he would eventually correct himself imo

If I was mafia, I wouldn't NK Via now.

I'd NK him on N1.  But assuming Via was alive at this point, I'd definitely NK him.  And N3 was protective roles.  N2 was BBM (obvious town)/Shinori.  N1 was...Eclipse and Eurykins?  That last one was weird as fuck.

[Blitz]

2 minutes ago, Alette said:

If I was mafia, makaze would be dead by now despite his bad pushes because he would eventually correct himself imo

Makaze cannot correct himself when he is in tunnel vision mode, which seems to be the case atm....

anyways, do we know what the numbers are?

also, do we know why the number of kills at night have not been consistent?