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We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

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1 minute ago, Refa said:

NKing me is SUICIDE man, unless scum has a Ninja.

If I was mafia, I wouldn't NK Via now.

I'd NK him on N1.  But assuming Via was alive at this point, I'd definitely NK him.  And N3 was protective roles.  N2 was BBM (obvious town)/Shinori.  N1 was...Eclipse and Eurykins?  That last one was weird as fuck.

I believe it's likely that Via was attempted last night, but Mack saved him (now that I think about it Via is much better for Mack to save than me. It also would explain why Via died and was the only kill: Mafia targeted the same person twice, but the SK went down the list of people they saw as harder to sway/more obvious town).

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By "Last Night" I mean the night Mack died. Still having trouble thinking of last night as a full Night phase.

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5 minutes ago, Blitz said:

Makaze cannot correct himself when he is in tunnel vision mode, which seems to be the case atm....

anyways, do we know what the numbers are?

also, do we know why the number of kills at night have not been consistent?

 

For what it's worth, I am leaning towards Athena as Mafia and Omega as ITP, and I don't think your slot is Mafia if Athena is. So we'll see how he flips and go from there.

My conclusion on your slot is mechanics based, because I was town reading everyone Kaoz was, and don't see how Kaoz could have empowered his killer if I'm right about them. With mechanical reasons against Athena, I have reasons to suspect him, and Kaoz empowering him makes sense to me, so it's a real possibility. We know Athena has hidden something, but only suspect that Walrein had, so I'll go with the logical conclusion over the likely one, and see what happens.

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9 minutes ago, Blitz said:

Makaze cannot correct himself when he is in tunnel vision mode, which seems to be the case atm....

anyways, do we know what the numbers are?

also, do we know why the number of kills at night have not been consistent?

 

We do not know what the numbers are.

Possible tell: I kind of doubt that Blitz considers this question as Mafia, unless he always asks this. Doesn't discount any of the other reasons Walrein is suspicious, though.

@Blitz We know there is an ITP, and that eclipse was jailed N1, explaining the failed N1 kill. Last night I suspect they both shot the same person, but others are not so certain. There have 2 kills every other night since then.

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12 minutes ago, Blitz said:

Makaze cannot correct himself when he is in tunnel vision mode, which seems to be the case atm....

anyways, do we know what the numbers are?

also, do we know why the number of kills at night have not been consistent?

 

I don't agree with the bolded because personally i've seen him get out of it once and in that game he was town. I was in a game recently with him where he disagreed with a player because of the way they were contributing. In the end he did stop and corrected himself.

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(BTW, I gave Blitz my reads list with all of the claims, which is why he knows that)

Also we know that the extra kill isn't mafia driven, because Scumnori got shot N2.

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1 minute ago, Refa said:

(BTW, I gave Blitz my reads list with all of the claims, which is why he knows that)

Also we know that the extra kill isn't mafia driven, because Scumnori got shot N2.

I can see Shinori being a kill from walrein.

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Just now, Alette said:

I can see Shinori being a kill from walrein.

IMO it's from SK!Athena, because he was townreading Shinori on D2.  If I'm wrong, then I dunno.

You can't see Walrein being mafia, right?  What if Athena does flip SK, who do you think is scum?

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Just now, Blitz said:

btw, why/when did Fable claim bomb?

Walrein claimed to have targeted him with a motivate and failed N1. Fable claimed bomb to explain it, reluctantly, and this is how it happened:

I asked Fable if his claim could help solve the game. He responded:

On 4/23/2018 at 7:30 AM, Fable said:

No. 

He read Walrein's claim, then said this:

On 4/23/2018 at 7:45 AM, Fable said:

Unvote

I got up to Walrein's role claim and it does make sense it would fail when he used it on me with what my role is. =/

After thinking about it, he full claimed:

On 4/23/2018 at 7:56 AM, Fable said:

Meh if I'm claiming that might as well claim full, doesn't really matter anymore. 

I'm a rolebomb, if I get NKed the person who killed me loses all their abilities. 

Then he reread Walrein's reads list to see if it made sense to motivate Fable, and came up with this:

On 4/23/2018 at 3:54 PM, Fable said:

Umm....why was Walrein trying to motivate less confidant V reads?

Later, when I explained that Walrein had posted his pre-N2 reads and soon updated them in thread, Fable reread, and said, "You're right, it fits".

I don't think this is a fake claim, or that it makes sense for him to have this solving progression with Walrein's reads.

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I wasnt thinking it was a fake claim, I just thought it was detrimental to claim that?

Like, you never want to claim bomb, so that you can use your role right, unless you are so good at the game, you will be killed regardless, lmao, no?

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Just now, Blitz said:

btw @Refa when you use your role, do you get one liners or the whole thing?

uh i didn't claim it on thread, so just ask me in our qt

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Just now, Blitz said:

I wasnt thinking it was a fake claim, I just thought it was detrimental to claim that?

Like, you never want to claim bomb, so that you can use your role right, unless you are so good at the game, you will be killed regardless, lmao, no?

I think that if Fable is town, there is a world where he knows he is consensus town, and doesn't want to draw the NK just to nullify scum's powers. It's not a good time to claim, he it makes even less sense from any other PoV. He was solving, and he thought that was more important than anything. That narrative is better than "He did something I wouldn't do, so he had mafia reasons, but I couldn't tell you what they were".

If he is faking this tone as Mafia, he has been doing a much better job than Walrein or Snike, and I'm going be very surprised. But I also don't think it makes sense for him to help clear Walrein when he is already consensus town, and this makes no sense from a strategic standpoint. He made a mistake, but it's a town mistake, not a Mafia one, IMO.

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Mafia reasons are "I don't want to get NK'd by the ITP, so I'm claiming Role Bomb" lol.

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I would claim if I thought it would solve the game, regardless of if it could potentially be of use later if I was wrong. Because if I see to solve I take it, and I don't like seeing a town get railroaded when I could save them.

I think is how Fable thinks and that is why he claimed. He thought it would be solving.

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1 minute ago, Refa said:

Mafia reasons are "I don't want to get NK'd by the ITP, so I'm claiming Role Bomb" lol.

This doesn't make sense in context. If that were his logic, he would have done it earlier instead of then. Like... I think people have natural processes. I can see how their minds are working. I can see a to b to c. Mafia would not be able to predict their own town mindset to the point of replicating the timing this perfectly to align with town motivations. It's more than uncanny, its impossible to time things in a way that looks natural, without it actually being natural. It will show in the word choice and pauses or pre-emptiveness, and nothing you can say will convince me otherwise.

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but on D2?

that is too early.... what good is outing it over getting hit by it and then getting the vanillized person to get caught in a trap?

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1 minute ago, Blitz said:

but on D2?

that is too early.... what good is outing it over getting hit by it and then getting the vanillized person to get caught in a trap?

He claimed on D4 FWIW.

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Doing it earlier would be without reason though, so would set off a lot of red flags

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15 minutes ago, Refa said:

IMO it's from SK!Athena, because he was townreading Shinori on D2.  If I'm wrong, then I dunno.

You can't see Walrein being mafia, right?  What if Athena does flip SK, who do you think is scum?

I don't think this is him as mafia because it just doesn't add up. That claim as mafia doesn't make sense for him because it feels reachy for him. I'm pretty much not sure because i'm still holding ??? for mak.

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That said, I would be wrong about Athena, but I think there is still a possible world where he isn't anti-town, depending on what his action is, but I think his hiding it this long is unlikely to be pro-town.

I have literally 0 reasons to suspect Fable, especially based on associatives. Scum didn't even consider him in their strategy, let alone bus or avoid him as a player.

Your reads are not based on getting in the player's head in context and that is always going to lead to us disagreeing, so there's not much point debating it, especially if you just go "but it helps mafia lol". I don't care about results, I care about the process. If the process contradicts what happened, then the process didn't happen the way you said. I'll change my mind when I'm proven wrong and learn from it next game.

For example, I don't look at Athena not getting lynched despite the votes and go "the Mafia weren't serious about the wagon". I read the way Shinori treated it and the way Athena treated it and go "I can see why Shinori dropped it when he did because I am figuratively in his head in that moment". You don't think like this, and it's never going to agree with me.

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15 minutes ago, Blitz said:

I wasnt thinking it was a fake claim, I just thought it was detrimental to claim that?

Like, you never want to claim bomb, so that you can use your role right, unless you are so good at the game, you will be killed regardless, lmao, no?

Are you suspecting fable?

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no, I haven't read on him, but me assuming he claimed on D2, made me suspicious. Since that is not the case and it happened D4, his claim is not suspicious. I don't have much of a read on anyone other than a very few people based on meta

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