We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[Refa]

1 minute ago, SullyMcGully said:

Don't have time for a reread unfortunately. I'm fine with the votes on Eclipse for pressure purposes, but... I really don't want to lynch there. If we mess up, we're getting rid of a pretty useful town player. Yeah some of her play seems scummy, but... I just feel like there have got to be better options. Like, if this is a mislynch, then scum are going to be very happy with it.

I'm going to read the Kirsche ISO.

But you're voting Kirsche...

[SullyMcGully]

1 minute ago, Refa said:

But you're voting Kirsche...

Is Kirsche a good town player? I'm looking at his ISO right now to see if I'm overlooking anything. My opinion of him might be skewed, in P5 at this point Kirsche seemed even more townie than he does in this one and you know how that turned out - both for him and for me.

[BBM]

I'm good with voting Eclipse bc I find her scummier but i don't really think that the atgument that junko wouldn't sub back in as scum is good? He probably just felt really bad. Plus even though i enjoy town more i think I'd be more likely to sub back in as mafia because i would feel bad screwing over my teammates.

##Unvote, ##Vote: Eclipse

[Jaybee]

i know i had people who asked me questions (BBM, Kaoz, Omega, Refa?) and I would love to answer you but you'll have to wait till D3 so I can organise my thoughts over 24-48 hours because I really don't have good answers for any of your questions, reading 16 pages wasn't the greatest thing for my motivation.  Only one I guess this answers is @Kaoz lol

I've read the junko case Refa and athena linked me, and I'm still not feeling it, I read him as demotivated more than anything, and that's a null. OK with a lynch for the reads it'll produce, but I'd rather go for bigger scumreads.

Won't be awake for phase change, so very fast dirty thoughts:

eclipse targeting makaze straight off the bat for zeus's poor play (did she ever say she thought anything of zeus' alignment instead of his play?) is total bs

there's a nice little eclipse/mack defense of junk I see (which is how I read eclipse's gigantic quotewall, again giving an out for a junko mislynch), would look at the remaining 2 if junk/eclipse flips scum. I'm more confident on mack > eclipse cases, but I don't think mack is happening today.

rolespec i think mack is more likely to be town but the play is highly suspect.

##Unvote, ##Vote eclipse

[Iris]

Day 2.yawn
Junko (8): Omega., athena_57, Mackc2, eclipse, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy, Kaoz, Zkirsche
eclipse (5): Makaze, Lord Gaius, Refa, BBM, Jaybee
Zkirsche (2): Junko, SullyMcGully
athena_57 (1): Shinori
Jaybee (1): Via
Omega (1): Walrein
Shinori (1): Arcanite
Arcanite (1): Alette

Not Voting: Fable

You have ~4 hours left in the day.  With 20 alive, it takes 7 to lynch and 14 to hammer.

Edited April 16, 2018 by Iris

[SatsumaFSoysoy]

I'm not quite feeling the Eclipse lynch just yet. Maybe it's because we sorta came to the same conclusion by reading Zkirsche vs Junk, so I don't find her null conclusion to be scummy. The tone thing is kinda like the BBM vs Bibbon thing again in my eyes, where they clash over playstyles (scum intent vs gut).

If the standard here is to find someone who is not contributive to lynch on Day 1 (assuming no direct scumreads made), I don't see how Eclipse's early play was a problem, since her posts picking on bad play were focused in the first half of Day 1.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

Refa, what happens if eclipse flips V?

Legitimate question; I'm withholding my opinion for the time being.

[Refa]

Just now, Omega. said:

Refa, what happens if eclipse flips V?

Legitimate question; I'm withholding my opinion for the time being.

I'd look into LG/JB.  Makaze's read on her seems genuine regardless of the flip and I'd be interested to see how he'd progress knowing that she's town.  BBM, I feel like he wouldn't cast doubts on my Junk read as scum because he'd rather have Eclipse lynch (and if Junk is scum, he wouldn't make it more likely for his buddy to be lynched).

BTW, what do you think of the argument that Junk wouldn't sub back in as scum?  You've played a few games w/him IIRC.  How sure are you that one of Junk/Kirsche is scum?

[Alette]

What are people's read on BBM?

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Alette said:

What are people's read on BBM?

I should probably read his responses to me and his Weapons/Eclipse cases but I remember feeling very underwhelmed by his slot until his recent output which I thought was decent.

[Alette]

1 minute ago, Refa said:

I should probably read his responses to me and his Weapons/Eclipse cases but I remember feeling very underwhelmed by his slot until his recent output which I thought was decent.

what did you think of his vote on Bibbon's slot D1?

[Refa]

Just now, Alette said:

what did you think of his vote on Bibbon's slot D1?

I didn't like it.  It felt more based on disagreements than scumreads, but BBM did later unvote based on that premise, so I guess it's okay (I know I mentioned being frustrated w/him dropping his Bibbon read in my reads post but it's probably not telling the more I think about it).

[Alette]

1 minute ago, Refa said:

I didn't like it.  It felt more based on disagreements than scumreads, but BBM did later unvote based on that premise, so I guess it's okay (I know I mentioned being frustrated w/him dropping his Bibbon read in my reads post but it's probably not telling the more I think about it).

I feel like it's a bit scummy because I agree with Fable that bibbon is townie D1 and I don't really get his current votes for this day phase.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

10 minutes ago, Refa said:

I'd look into LG/JB.  Makaze's read on her seems genuine regardless of the flip and I'd be interested to see how he'd progress knowing that she's town.  BBM, I feel like he wouldn't cast doubts on my Junk read as scum because he'd rather have Eclipse lynch (and if Junk is scum, he wouldn't make it more likely for his buddy to be lynched).

BTW, what do you think of the argument that Junk wouldn't sub back in as scum?  You've played a few games w/him IIRC.  How sure are you that one of Junk/Kirsche is scum?

I mean, could be true, or it couldn't be. I don't know how one has confidence on either side of the fence barring knowing Junko very well. I do not; I do not even know if I have played with him before, though I'd guess I have if your memory is correct. 

I'm confident in Junk/kirsche holding a wolf that I'll be tunneling that until the game is over or I die, barring a mason or cop inno. I'm about as confident as I was in Trinity Mafia, Brexitland, and EO3. If I'm wrong, I've misread the gamestate badly and should probably be vigged.

[SullyMcGully]

On 4/15/2018 at 11:08 AM, Zkirsche said:

##Unvote
##Vote: Shinori

Shinori's read post here is mediocre imo. He never explained why Walrein was rubbing him the wrong way, Refa is third on gut (???). His bit about BBM is just discrediting Bibbon's townread on BBM and he is really disliking me over the day phase but of course never explains why. Would like some expansion here. I don't think JB is unmemorable now either so would like to see what he thinks of JB's new content.

OK, the Shinori voteswitch here bothers me a bit, as I already stated. I found a post of Omega's which covers this as well, he says it sounds like Kirsche is just picking out a post to find problems with. IMO it was a weak read and his defense of it later was unsatisfactory. Like, yeah, those were all problems that could be pointed out with the post, but was it really worth a voteswitch? What was scummy about it as opposed to just bad townplay? Why couldn't he just ask Shinori honest questions if all he wanted were answers?

Then Kirsche switches to Mack and he goes back and digs up old Nightmare suspicions as if he's had a serious scumread there all along. But I just read over Kirsche's D1, and Kirsche's first Nightmare read is pretty insubstantial. Most of his problems with Nightmare come from his posts dealing with Mack, not from back when Nightmare was actually a player. 

Then there's Junko. In the process of reading back over Kirsche I read the Junko posts he seemed to have the most trouble with. While I wasn't paying much attention earlier, Junko seems legitimately frustrated with Kirsche. Kirsche tunneling I can get, but I feel like he blew the actual issues with Junko's posts out of proportion. Then, when players get on his case for tunneling on Junko, Kirsche throws out two weak, short-lived cases on players he wasn't very adamant about before. Then returns to tunneling Junko. 

I'm starting to question Omega's logic that either Junko or Kirsche needs to be scum. I'm not picking that up from my own reading, but I have a poorer sense for that sort of thing. I'm not completely averse to the idea that they're both town, but Junko actually feels town to me while Kirsche is bothering me a lot more.

22 hours ago, Zkirsche said:

I thought Zeus was town right from the getgo and didn't think his actions would come from scum. I felt like the people who were casing him (e.g. Fable) were more just mad at being snarked at (there was a post from Fable that really made that clear imo)

I forgot why I quoted this one, actually. This doesn't really bother me too much, but I'm pretty sure Kirsche was calling Zeus null in the posts I read from that time period. 

2 hours ago, Zkirsche said:

 

@SullyMcGully Junko had plenty of time to defend himself before, in fact part of my grievance with him this phase was his defence of his actions D1. What do you think about my content itself? The analysis I make, the arguments that I made, the questions that I ask? Everyone suspecting someone doesn't necessarily indicate that they're scum (although tbh I don't feel very suspected right now. I think the only people with suspicions on me are Shinori, BBM and now you).

##Unvote
##Vote: Junko

Should've done this yesterday.

 I should address this: I was referring to D2 with my post, while Kirsche has been active D2 and, IMO, suspicious (I recall a few other players saying Kirsche was suspicious at the time I wrote that post, but I could be wrong), Junko and his ill-fated sub have not.

I get that Kirsche has been asking town-friendly questions. He's the one who brought the whole stupid neighborhood deal to people's attention, along with other things. But I remember P5 Mafia. Kirsche was one of my top townreads in the early portions of that game. He was a decent contributor and asked good questions. It was only once scum flipped and we got further with associative reads that we managed to put the pieces together. And then I got mislynched in Kirsche's place because Via was too high to save my butt. I'm worried Kirsche could pull another game like that. 

As far as other stuff goes: I feel like leaving my vote where it is. Ya'll can lynch Eclipse or Junko without me if you need to, though I really don't think Junko is scum. I see some of the logic on Eclipse. I actually didn't want her to be lynched because I figured I could use my role on her tonight (her being mayor and all), but now that I think of it, chances that she (assuming she's Mafia) would carry out the NK tonight are pretty low. 

However, if she does flip town, then my suspicion would fall on BBM. Like I said earlier, getting a player like Eclipse mislynched would be a major win for the mafia, and I would bet that one of the players highly proactive in bringing it about would be scum. 

I'd really like it if Eclipse herself would say something. JB and LG's votes in particular feel kinda sheepy, but both of those slots have promised rereads and better info D3. We'll just have to see what happens.

Kaoz's recent post where he talks about how we shouldn't lynch him if he doesn't die tonight makes sense, I guess. It would also make sense for scum trying to get the most out of their jailer claim to say that as well, though. Honestly, that statement made that slot seem scummier to me.

That's all I've got for now. I need to take a break. I won't be back before deadline most likely because our dear hosts scheduled it right over milking time. :cow:

[SullyMcGully]

19 minutes ago, Omega. said:

I mean, could be true, or it couldn't be. I don't know how one has confidence on either side of the fence barring knowing Junko very well. I do not; I do not even know if I have played with him before, though I'd guess I have if your memory is correct. 

I'm confident in Junk/kirsche holding a wolf that I'll be tunneling that until the game is over or I die, barring a mason or cop inno. I'm about as confident as I was in Trinity Mafia, Brexitland, and EO3. If I'm wrong, I've misread the gamestate badly and should probably be vigged.

Nobody's going to vig Omega of course. This is a heck of a lot of confidence, though. Everybody remember this post if down the line Omega starts waffling.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

15 minutes ago, SullyMcGully said:

Kaoz's recent post where he talks about how we shouldn't lynch him if he doesn't die tonight makes sense, I guess.

Wait, where did he say this?

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

Nevermind, I just saw it.

##Vote: Zkirsche

[Refa]

47 minutes ago, Omega. said:

I'm confident in Junk/kirsche holding a wolf that I'll be tunneling that until the game is over or I die, barring a mason or cop inno. I'm about as confident as I was in Trinity Mafia, Brexitland, and EO3. If I'm wrong, I've misread the gamestate badly and should probably be vigged.

Makes sense.  I know your vote is on Junk now, but who do you think is more likely to be scum, and what do you think of Sully's Kirsche case?

[Refa]

lmao okay nice cut bro

[Refa]

Okay, I'll sheep it.  I still don't see Scum!Junk subbing back into a scum slot, I trust Omega, I trust Sully, I think it's a good read.  I'm so salty that Sully is playing better than me this game.

##Vote: ZKirsche

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

11 minutes ago, Refa said:

Makes sense.  I know your vote is on Junk now, but who do you think is more likely to be scum, and what do you think of Sully's Kirsche case?

See, ideally, Junko/his sub would be here and we could get some good discourse in and figure it out. Instead, we're working with scraps. Reminds me of the Clarinets lynch last game; we're at a disadvantage here. The posturing around Junko this phase is BIZARRE. I guarantee you wolves have tried to save him regardless of his alignment.

My villacore is Me/Sully/Via/you in that order, and even then I can't take the V lean on you to the bank. This is one of the wolfiest villages I've ever seen to be honest, but it has been a fun game. Triple wagons atm.

I'm actually not gonna be around for EoD, guitar lesson. Damn.

[SatsumaFSoysoy]

I think the argument that scum Junk wouldn't sub back into his own slot on the basis that he doesn't like to play is pretty weak. The greatest thing about meta speculation like this is I can also say "but what if he just doesn't want SB and Iris to suffer?", and we'd be stuck in a circle because we're trying to read minds to begin with, instead of reading posts.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

Actually yeah I'm cool with having you V atm Refa; the way you bounced back and forth between Junko/kirsche yesterday is the most synergy I've had with anyone in this game.

Snike's play confuses me. I don't know if he's a wolf, or has just been tunneling and gotten confused on certain things.

[BBM]

i'm not going to case only weak players just because I might be wrong. then only weak players would get lynched.

ugh I don't really want to lynch kirsche. do you guys really find junko subbing back in to be such a strong argument that you're basically willing to lynch anyone else? because that's what it seems like to me based on switching to eclipse and now kirsche