We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[Refa]

I just realized both of the people who I was supposed to give responses too died lmao.

JB is a good lynch target, he soft defended Junko and voted Eclipse while saying that he'd look into Junk if she flipped scum (or the other way around).  If they made sense as scum together, why were you soft defending Junko?????

Makaze bothers me too, because he went from being okay to lynching Junk to not (which isn't bad, I did the same thing), but I can't really see why he felt that way.

Walrein/Fable I don't have anything to go off of despite TWO (2!!!) scum flips, which bothers me.  I'll hopefully get a better read on these two before phase end.

Alette was here too but her thinking she was right about BBM is weirding me out (not in a bad way, I'm just legitimately confused).  

1 minute ago, SullyMcGully said:

Refa, you sheeped my Kirsche case very hard without adding any logic of your own. I didn't think my Kirsche case was very strong and I'm pretty sure I said as much when I made it. I wanted people to build onto it with their own (presumably) superior logic. I saw a lot of players who did that, but when you were asked to clarify why you thought Kirsche was town, you literally just copy-pasted from my post. 

Dude, I didn't have time to reread Kirsche's content when phase was ending.

[Fable]

Village: Kirsche, Athena, Via, Omega, Alette, Kaoz 

Lean Village: Refa, Sully , Satsuma + Snike, Mack, Baldrick  

Null:   Makaze,  LG, Walrein

Wolf: Jaybee, Arcanite 

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

Likeliest wolf on kirsche is Makaze.

#Datshade

[Fable]

2 minutes ago, Refa said:

I just realized both of the people who I was supposed to give responses too died lmao.

JB is a good lynch target, he soft defended Junko and voted Eclipse while saying that he'd look into Junk if she flipped scum (or the other way around).  If they made sense as scum together, why were you soft defending Junko?????

Makaze bothers me too, because he went from being okay to lynching Junk to not (which isn't bad, I did the same thing), but I can't really see why he felt that way.

Walrein/Fable I don't have anything to go off of despite TWO (2!!!) scum flips, which bothers me.  I'll hopefully get a better read on these two before phase end.

Alette was here too but her thinking she was right about BBM is weirding me out (not in a bad way, I'm just legitimately confused).  

Dude, I didn't have time to reread Kirsche's content when phase was ending.

I literally nailed Junko how do you not have a read on me? 

[ZoesMad]

On 4/11/2018 at 5:02 PM, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

Shinori seems the most Town to me, and I think eclipse is confirmed Mayor too? So those would be strongest Town. Everyone else is still pending for me.

Is it possible that Satsuma would hard in on their buddy like this? I'm skeptical but I could see new scum looking at Shinori in a good spot and finding him a good person to attach to. 

On 4/11/2018 at 11:10 PM, Iris said:

Day 1.9 - Votals

athena_57 (2): Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy, Shinori

Then again i'm not sure they would park together like this. Would appreciate feedback on this. 

[Refa]

Just now, Fable said:

I literally nailed Junko how do you not have a read on me? 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but your vote was pretty late on in the wagon right?  It's hard for me to read town/scum from that.

[Fable]

1 minute ago, Refa said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but your vote was pretty late on in the wagon right?  It's hard for me to read town/scum from that.

I called him a wolf since early in the day and said I was voting for him.

Are you just choosing to forget every post I made yesterday?

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

Fable, my impression of Bibbon's village game is making cases and pushing on one suspect at a time with heavy interaction towards them.

I haven't seen her wolf game. How does it differ? Not looking for huge detail, just a brief impression.

[SullyMcGully]

I'm townreading Makaze ATM, he treated the Kirsche case a little better than others were. He asked questions before jumping on, prodded other people on the wagon for their reasoning, and hopped on with a fairly believable reason themselves (the whole "that's a definite scumtell" thing). I also don't feel like Makaze would say something likme that if he knew Kirsche wasn't scum, but that could just be his style. I've only ever played EiMM with Makaze, but he's famously concise there.

But seriously @Refa: How can you be scumreading Makaze if he literally did the same thing you say makes you obvtown, just seconds later?

[Fable]

1 minute ago, Omega. said:

Fable, my impression of Bibbon's village game is making cases and pushing on one suspect at a time with heavy interaction towards them.

I haven't seen her wolf game. How does it differ? Not looking for huge detail, just a brief impression.

She doesn't case people as wolf it's either waffle shade or tunnel shade without a ton of reasoning. 

[SatsumaFSoysoy]

3 minutes ago, Lord Gaius said:

Is it possible that Satsuma would hard in on their buddy like this? I'm skeptical but I could see new scum looking at Shinori in a good spot and finding him a good person to attach to.

I did townread Shinori, yes, so him flipping as scum is quite a surprise to me.

(Un?)fortunately, I have played this game enough to not be that stupid. Not that I even ever did this in my first scum game.

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Mackc2 said:

Day 2. STOP NINJAS
Junko (9): athena_57, Mackc2, eclipse,  Kaoz, Zkirsche, Fable, Refa, BBM
Zkirsche (6): Junko, SullyMcGully, Omega., Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy, Makaze, Via
eclipse (3): Lord Gaius, Jaybee, Shinori
Omega (1): Walrein
Shinori (1): Arcanite
Arcanite (1): Alette
 

Here are the end of day votals, with the position of known scum colour coded, looking at this if two scum where in Junko's wagon they could have easily switched to Zkirsches wagon (and even just claimed they where breaking the tie) which presents two possibilities either there is <2 scum in the Junko wagon or the Kirsche wagon was also a scum wagon (which based on the placement of shinori also seems possible) 

Athena/Kaoz/ZKirsche/me were on at the end of the day, but I don't believe you/eclipse/Kaoz were, so you probably couldn't switch to the ZKirsche wagon (I am assuming ZKirsche is town for this, but he voted scum twice yesterday).  I'm townreading all of you guys (your claim seemed townie and you voted Junk pretty early, Kaoz is a jailkeeper in a game with a flipped scum roleblocker, and eclipse has pretty townie interactions w/flipped scum), but I don't think this clears you.

1 minute ago, Fable said:

I called him a wolf since early in the day and said I was voting for him.

Are you just choosing to forget every post I made yesterday?

Don't remember, should probably reread.  Keeping track of 20+ players is hard lol.

Just now, Lord Gaius said:

Is it possible that Satsuma would hard in on their buddy like this? I'm skeptical but I could see new scum looking at Shinori in a good spot and finding him a good person to attach to. 

Then again i'm not sure they would park together like this. Would appreciate feedback on this. 

@SatsumaFSoysoy Why was Shinori your strongest townread?  I agree that it seems off because I don't remember Shinori doing anything particularly townie.

IMO them both parking on Athena is null, or uh too hard for me to get a read off of.  What do you think about Snike claiming an item he got on N1?  I'm not confident in my read there, so I'd like a second opinion.

Just now, SullyMcGully said:

But seriously @Refa: How can you be scumreading Makaze if he literally did the same thing you say makes you obvtown, just seconds later?

Because the reasons I switched off of Junk were obvious.  I thought his claim was good and his end of phase actions didn't seem to fit the scum MO to me.

[Snike]

walrein kind of flaked end of phase which bothers me.

Are we thinking networkers are 1 and 1 still? Because the shinori flip is making me doubt hard that wagon now (He was the #1 player with me on that case.) I do not want to lynch here today.

@Omega I already explained myself, take it or leave it.  Also I think Via's night action thing clears Kaoz.

I still think that end of phase push on eclipse had scum on it. I don't think I'm 100% 100% wrong this game reads-wise.

##Vote:JB

Protective push, another protective push, eclipse push, I was already scumreading so may as well continue with the push.

[Fable]

Walrein suffers from the same problem Junk did with his reads not evolving too much which has me a bit wary there, I really don't like him being on the marth slot two days in a row. 

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

BBM cased Weapons and JB yesterday. Both cases were extremely good, IMO.

Also, please be careful with claims moving forward. I have a feeling BBM had a sick role, and don't want wolvrs clearing themselves off a role we don't have anymore.

[Mackc2]

8 minutes ago, Lord Gaius said:

Is it possible that Satsuma would hard in on their buddy like this? I'm skeptical but I could see new scum looking at Shinori in a good spot and finding him a good person to attach to. 

Then again i'm not sure they would park together like this. Would appreciate feedback on this. 

Their only interaction before this point was Shinori telling Satsuma how to scum hunt. 

[SatsumaFSoysoy]

2 minutes ago, Refa said:

@SatsumaFSoysoy Why was Shinori your strongest townread?  I agree that it seems off because I don't remember Shinori doing anything particularly townie.

IMO them both parking on Athena is null, or uh too hard for me to get a read off of.  What do you think about Snike claiming an item he got on N1?  I'm not confident in my read there, so I'd like a second opinion.

It was mostly going off of Shinori's tone, and how he responded and poked many people with questions.

We did claim that we got the item on Day 2, it's not like we just brought it up now.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

Interesting that they used a janitor N2 instead of N2. Perhaps they rolecopped BBM or read him as important PR, or something. Again, be wary with claims moving forward.

[SullyMcGully]

OK, I've got a headache. I'll be back in a bit. Refa seems OK I guess, but I need to clear my head a little. It's tough coming into the day with good scumreads when all of your good scumreads died. 

I'm pretty sure JB is scum, I'm interested in hearing more from him later though.

[Fable]

Shinori was on athena d1 so I'd probably go back and look at how that wagon formed and pushes on athena. 

[Fable]

Gonna read through shinori now which considering his average post was pretty long and he had nearly 75  it might take me a while. 

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Snike said:

walrein kind of flaked end of phase which bothers me.

Are we thinking networkers are 1 and 1 still? Because the shinori flip is making me doubt hard that wagon now (He was the #1 player with me on that case.) I do not want to lynch here today.

I still think that end of phase push on eclipse had scum on it. I don't think I'm 100% 100% wrong this game reads-wise.

##Vote:JB

I think they're both town on their own merits, so I would not want to lynch there.

Well, it had Shinori on it...

5 minutes ago, Omega. said:

BBM cased Weapons and JB yesterday. Both cases were extremely good, IMO.

Also, please be careful with claims moving forward. I have a feeling BBM had a sick role, and don't want wolvrs clearing themselves off a role we don't have anymore.

What do you think about Weapons voting Shinori randomly yesterday?

[Snike]

I uh did a shinori summary, @Fable This might be a little tainted by my end of d2 opinions and pre-d3 start but here:

Spoiler

p 25
-mentions kirsche misrep
-bbm agreement about networker, scumreads athena.
-nightmare push; asks for clarification on bart wagon swap; smears fenrir???
-against char claiming; it's fine.
-admits waffle unprompted (townie imo); explains flip
-asks about athena
32
-clarifies nbart and athena reads; expresses wtf with sully
-null-scum but doesn't get case on kirsche
33
-calls via out on ??? read
40
-reads post
- backs down on nm
-walrein reads gut; he hasn't shown up for second half of day phase so perhaps;
-jb stuff I disagree but he has been scummy
-refa's been weird; I was along those lines, then I was scum-aligned; now I'm townreading it;
-turns bibbon into a townread
-athena is same
-kirsche suspicion 40/41
-expresses skepticism w/ my question; seems town motivated (stop fishing)
44
-pushing mack an sully to respond; has his opinions expressed; this is scumhunting imo
47
-walrein scumread is meta but admits later stuff is good
-persecutes bibbon voteo n jb; I agree;
-people talk more about 42 snike/athena;
-leans more scum on marth;
-dislikes sully over doc vote; I don't think this outweighs the derp town moment;
-bbm scumread over his weird defense of kirsche
-calls out athena's 47 as noncontributive. There isn't much content tbh
-doesn't want to lynch junko (doesn't reflect well)
48
-first mentioned of eclipse; gut town but hasn't read
-asks about nm push
-emotions on the lol wolf; this is ate and imo very shinori because it's kinda a dismissal of his stuff
-elaborate on eclipse meta; doesn't talk about scumminess or not.
51
-explains junko radar shift; bigpost appeased him
-responds to refa on kirsche; walrein; and on satsuma reads; I think this mixes theory and actual case examples, and isn't an attempt to pad or get into theorycrafting.
-asking for explanation from omega; going through motions is not how I'd put this play.
54?
-short bbm read explanation
64
talks about train; supports anyone but junko; hard disagree;

@Refa I mean yes but back when it was BBM gaius makaze jb. JB's the obvious candidate but I don't feel good about gaius makaze either.

Actually, could I get a read on like bottom of 41? Shinori semi-shades me as fishing when I ask eclipse if she had given me the item. I don't think that's necessarily something he'd do to defend her?

[Fable]

Does anyone know if shinori buses or actually how common busing is on here in general? 

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

I'd have to see the post, Refa. I don't remember that. I can tell you I'm inclined towards JB over Arcanite.

Also, wolves are scared of getting docblocked or they were confident BBM had a sick role. BBM's a great player, but I NEVER kill him over Refa/Via/Sully. That said, Via/Sully are outted rolewise so I guess it's in line with PR hunting.