Twitch Plays Pokemon Mafia NOC(15p)(GAME OVER TOWN WINS)

[SB.]

3 minutes ago, Killthestory said:

it's been finals week.

I get you being busy but it feels like you’re trying to wvoid my push without really addressifn it which makes meanxious anout you.

[Killthestory]

that's not why i said it's finals week.

[Conqueror]

Yeah I meant to say I thought it was a dumb reaction test.

Ok fair enough wrt my reads, I'll go over some stuff later on. Also you forgot FTL mafia which was the most recent game we played in.

If Refa knew it was a reaction test wouldn't he be more likely to respond well to it?

That's the thing though you're saying he's demotivated town but I'm thinking he could be scum faking demotivated town. I mean sure Refa said he was demotovated because of last game but that's last game and this is this game. I dont know Refa's personality well enough ti make a judgement here, but is that enough for him to just sorta say duck it this game and let things sorta slide around him? He just feels very disengaged from the game state despite having decently fleshed out posts which is just weird to me, since it shows he's looking at the game but he doesn't have much influence with the game state since he isn't engaging a lot with others or making hard pushes.

[Killthestory]

i don't think scum fake demotivation.

[Conqueror]

Prims did it a few games ago. I've done it.

Okay maybe Prims was legit demotivated but it still counts as demotivated?

[Killthestory]

i think if scum can help it, they usually go for motivated townie. being demotivated always puts you in the loe  so refa being demotivated shouldn't be used as points against him. it can even be argued it's in his favor.

[Conqueror]

Sure, I agree that scum usually try to look like motivated townies, but sometimes people are too lazy to put that much effort into a scumgame, especially if they don't like playing scum that much or are trying to coast until LYLO. I don't know how true that is for Refa, but in any case it's not the main reason why I suspect him, especially as we just lynched a demotivated townie. I just don't think it's a point in Refa's favor.

[Shinori]

51 minutes ago, Conqueror said:

And his reaction to Shinori claiming a guilty on him in his last post of the day is not "lynch this lying scumbag" but "lol I guess we're both town".

Specifically here let me ask you something conq.

IF I faked a guilty on you at 5/5 in that situation how do you think you would react?  I ask this because here's a couple of different scenarios, I'll explain them from refa's PoV since this is the thing that actually happened.

Town!Refa sees me claim a guilty on him - Town!Refa just votes me for lying and doesn't think about the things that happen.

Town!Refa sees me claim a guilty on him - Town!Refa questions "Would scum really trade 1 for 1 on day 2?" (There answer is no)

Scum!Refa sees me claim a guilty on him - Scum!Refa stops talking so town get's NO more information or help to linking to his buddies. (This is probably the optimal play if Refa was actually scum.

Scum!Refa Sees me claim a guilty on him - Scum!Refa tries to fight back claiming it's false even though I've claimed 5/5 posts having been used.  If I was actually claiming a guilty on him at 5/5 posts Reaf would have been lynched no matter what Refa actually said so this is a pointless play.

Looking at the above options we already know the bolded is what happened.  Logically speaking Refa is feeling a lot better for me and until further notices I'm basically not going to vote him.  Scum!Refa doesn't react the way he did unless he's buddy with Rad(who was town lul) or they role copped and tracked Rad on the same night and KNEW I had more than 5 posts.

You are gonna have to argue how/why Scum!Refa does what he did when it would make no logical sense as scum.

[Shinori]

Motivation and demotivation is NAI in most situations.

[SB.]

I don’t remember shit about FTL mafia so my point still stands lol on your meta. Also Refa was semi-conscripted I think because he didn’t post a signup in thread so I don’t think he lies about demotivation. My general feelinf about demotivated scum Refa is tjat he isnt much of a prewence at all, whereas here refa has been provoking the loudest player itg which just doesn’t sseem that smart survivalwise. i think hw oukdn be more avoidant as maf

also i am apparently the only one who spotted the sign that was faked despite it being super broadcast to me, unless scum were intentionwlly not drawing attention to it i think its reasonable that they missed it.

idk what you mean on the first post of page @Killthestory

head hurts, probs need to sleepnthis off, see you guts tomorrow 

[SB.]

more avoidant meaning more likely to push fellow lurkers and newer players who can’t react well ftr. instead he picked like... me and shinori, who are naturally going tonlook at him for it

[Killthestory]

4 minutes ago, SB. said:

I don’t remember shit about FTL mafia so my point still stands lol on your meta. Also Refa was semi-conscripted I think because he didn’t post a signup in thread so I don’t think he lies about demotivation. My general feelinf about demotivated scum Refa is tjat he isnt much of a prewence at all, whereas here refa has been provoking the loudest player itg which just doesn’t sseem that smart survivalwise. i think hw oukdn be more avoidant as maf

also i am apparently the only one who spotted the sign that was faked despite it being super broadcast to me, unless scum were intentionwlly not drawing attention to it i think its reasonable that they missed it.

idk what you mean on the first post of page @Killthestory

head hurts, probs need to sleepnthis off, see you guts tomorrow 

it means that i was struggling to make a larger post with all my thoughts compiled because it was finals week, and i was lazy. here, i can just post my thoughts free form, so it's a lot easier for me to maintain presence on democracy days. 

3 minutes ago, Conqueror said:

Sure, I agree that scum usually try to look like motivated townies, but sometimes people are too lazy to put that much effort into a scumgame, especially if they don't like playing scum that much or are trying to coast until LYLO. I don't know how true that is for Refa, but in any case it's not the main reason why I suspect him, especially as we just lynched a demotivated townie. I just don't think it's a point in Refa's favor.

refa seems like the kind of guy to deepwolf to victory. i think it's leaning in refa's favor, but i won't use either or for him just like i'd expect everyone else not to either. i personally think his content is good, and when i pushed him, he responded appropriately. everyone has a massive hard on for lynching him, and i think wolves are happiest about it considering refa can be really strong town.

k so i'm on a computer let's get ready to rumble. 

[Conqueror]

@Shinori

I agree with the logic you laid out for your options but I think you missed one.

Scum!Refa sees guilty. Knows he can't win 1v1 with you. But doesn't want to throw in the towel either. So he points out a scenario where you could both be town so he isn't instalynched, and moves to the second suspect on his lynch listm

I'm saying this because this is the kind of play I'd make as scum here. Am I really the only one? 

I'm not discounting the idea of town!refa acting like he did, but I want to hear it from refa himself. 

[Shinori]

In that situation Refa still just dies.

If I was telling the truth then I wouldn't have been back to post and people would have voted him, no matter what theoretical Tailor speculation he made.

[Baldrick]

Shinori, serious. I wanted to ask you how many licks it takes to get to the tootsie roll centre of a tootsie pop, because you’re such a wise guy.

post coming in a bit

[Conqueror]

I mean it's a hail mary. It doesn't have to be successful, it's just the only option that isn't instantly giving up or throwing in the towel.

[Conqueror]

I guess if refa has a history of throwing in the towel as scum then I'll defer to you all on that. But I still want refa to explain his thoughts vis a vis the wagons yesterday as well as where he is today.

[Shinori]

In that situation though he's either gonna start having to spew or he's gonna end up giving info/reads that town can use in the future.  Like if he's bound to die (Unless he thinks I'm spouting a massive amount of BS) why does Scum!Refa say things that potentially give town more information.  Any interactions he would have with other people after that point in time could look bad for his buddies or good for townies.

Also I think his role is more likely to be town as he can normally use it towards the end of the phase (Assuming he can do it once each anarchy phase.) and we can make sure scum aren't trying to pull anything cheeky while also being able to know who's voting who and where.

[Shinori]

6 minutes ago, Baldrick said:

Shinori, serious. I wanted to ask you how many licks it takes to get to the tootsie roll centre of a tootsie pop, because you’re such a wise guy.

post coming in a bit

http://tootsie.com/howmanylick-experiments

[Killthestory]

my poe is based off dragging out people i think are town or leaning town. i think i have a wolf located somewhere in my reads, but that's cool. then, i looked it over, and i went, "who is likeliest to be able to push mislynches like these while also staying alive and being a deepwolf?" i came up with bart, sb, and jaybee, and then i added in ice and elemina.

for sb, his play isn't decidedly wolfy. i like the way he structures his content, and i actually appreciate his style. however, the way he responds to people, and how he's come to his reads really, really bugs me. his early athena push was like, almost objectively wolfy. athena played almost nothing like they did last game as a wolf, and there jokeposting and response to SB felt perfectly reasonable and townie. what does sb do? he starts pushing athena for being "nervous." athena was nowhere NEAR nervous as she was last game, and sb never really relented. it felt like such an awkward process and roundabout way of hitting athena, too, when he started asking her questions and sorta pressuring her. i totally wasn't convinced, but i was going to give it time because i was looking at other people i found wolfy.

his other content in relation to that wasn't the most memorable to me, i'll be honest, and i've still got to get the general gist of what's bugging me so much about him. the way he tiptoes around people, including me, especially when i started to pressure him felt so obviously trying to stay obscure and out of people's sights. like, it didn't feel he was interested in solving my alignment or me but rather trying to find ways to shoot it down and make himself seem townier in the process. that sort of feels like his general play where his reads are kind of out there in a super bad way with process that looks like it's just there to be there. i'm not fully convinced there, having similarly waffled that read all game. that's why i'm on bart.

[Killthestory]

for that matter, i think bart is a wolf hit a good 95 percent of the time just because of how much he makes sense with how little sense the game makes along with the avoidable mislynches. his play isn't expressedly wolfy, but it's pretty much the direct MO of a deepwolf. 

[Conqueror]

3 minutes ago, Shinori said:

In that situation though he's either gonna start having to spew or he's gonna end up giving info/reads that town can use in the future.  Like if he's bound to die (Unless he thinks I'm spouting a massive amount of BS) why does Scum!Refa say things that potentially give town more information.  Any interactions he would have with other people after that point in time could look bad for his buddies or good for townies.

Also I think his role is more likely to be town as he can normally use it towards the end of the phase (Assuming he can do it once each anarchy phase.) and we can make sure scum aren't trying to pull anything cheeky while also being able to know who's voting who and where.

Refa made one real post in between your claim and unclaim, and it was mostly just to explain why he thought you were probabpy town and to vote athena. I don't see what additional information comes from that. 

No comment on his role since I think it's more likely town but not impossible to give to scum.

At this point I'm mostly just waiting on Refa to respond. When I get back to my comp I'll explore some of the people I've been neglecting in my reads.

[Conqueror]

Waiting on refa to respond to see where my read on him goes.

[Shinori]

Technically refa made 3 posts between my claim and unclaim.

1 didn't matter though.

[Shinori]

I was wary of Conq/Rapier but I think I'm getting some town vibes from Conq's posts and his weird Refa tunnel at the moment.

I don't see why Scum!Conq would push/tunnel Refa like this when logic dictates that Refa is more likely gonna be town because of the reaction, at least in my eyes.